We need a stable government from now on if we have any hope of even achieving half way close to those projections.Quite possible, we just need stable Govt for at least 10 to 15 years.
Inshallah, Pakistani Generals would ensure that this prediction is falsified.
The elite have to be willing to give up some of their power to make room for productive people to grow the economy. Look at the US and look at Argentina. Similar climate, fertile land, and open door to skilled immigrants. A hundred years ago, similar living standards, but nowadays their economies couldn’t be more different.It is not possible that Generals remain in absolute power and Pakistan become the largest economy by 2075, chances are they will be cut to size and put in place.
The progress of the country is inversely proportional to the 'power and pelf' of the crooked and powerful Mil-Establishment.
Hopefully a rise of civilian supremacy will result in cutting of military powers, hoping against hope.
Those making projections to 2075, 53 years into the future, might as well use chicken bones and tarot cards.
The future that far ahead for any country is impossible to predict.
"More recent analysis suggests that elite capture continues to constrain economic policymaking". Since the 1980s, the share of industrialists in the National Assembly and parliament has doubled, blurring the barrier between politicians and businessmen.
It added policy uncertainty and a lack of trust in policy implementation affect firms' reactions to reforms and may affect the effectiveness of otherwise well-designed and implemented policies.
"Elite capture in Pakistan has affected policymaking, as in certain circumstances political leaders lack incentives to formulate policies in response to citizens' demands, or to work toward effective policy implementation," says the report.
While citing a reference of a study, the report underlines that "there exist at least four influential groups that gained power through historic events and continue to leverage their influence on the political system for personal gain". These are civil servants, landowners, industrialists, and the military.
Reforms are the only way forward, potential is being squandered and these groups will benefit most of reforms in the long run by being potentially the first movers on any new projects.The WB states that there was evidence that Pakistan's elites have used this power in the past to undermine reforms that would have reduced their influence.
It argues that instability in the political system has reduced accountability and skewed leaders' incentives away from long-term reforms. The characteristics of Pakistan's political system have weakened the link between citizens and political leaders that is so crucial to sustaining the triangular relationship.
"Pakistan can boost its growth by investing in people, improving productivity, reforming institutions and protecting the natural environment," said the WB Group Vice President South Asian Region Hartwig Schafer.
The decisions over the next decade will determine Pakistan's future where it will stand in 2047. Will Pakistan rise to the challenges ahead and transform its economy or will Pakistan continue with the mixed record of reform implementation, failing to address the key constraints to growth, while another generation of Pakistanis sees limited welfare improvements, says the WB.
They aren't just reading some mantra and coming up with dates. These are the SAME economic powerhouses that projected based in India's entry into US IT back in 1995 that India will become a top 5 economy by 2020! WOW, look at that, how right they were.
One thing you (our Indian friends) need to understand, just like you, we have a huge population (5th largest). So while we may not be able to compete with you dollar by dollar and man by man, at some point (10 years of business savvy rule in Pakistan), we will go up. And if it's not the 5th top economy, Pakistan will be in top ten. There is no denying that fact. Pakistan just needs to stay put together and (credit due being given), work like our Indian friends who have learned that work ethic from the Americans.
I agree!! Both countries have tremendous scope to grow. Bus ye Kashmir ka churan dono ko bandh ke rakkha huwa hain. I guess, Pakistan is a bit more entangled (its fauz being the force majeure) than India to some extent.
I think in the near future, I could see Indian-Pakistan doing some pact on business (Consumables, IT, etc) and it's a win-win for everyone, especially India. Through trade, India gets easy access to Pakistan and if she can connect with the CPEC, you'd get connected with Central Asia through Pakistan, etc. So hopefully the trade will start to normalize and people to people relationships will increase helping both sides to further grow.
The future MUST belong to Asia. Between India-Pakistan-China alone, that's about 3.3 BILLION people (40% of the entire globe) connected through short flight and roads and trains. Our GDP's could jump up a lot (and the largest Tech and Educated young talent).