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Pakistan projected to be among largest economies in the world by 2075: Goldman Sachs

Bleek

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Pakistan army the cucks won't allow it to happen with their shitty nepotism and incompetency, they'd rather watch most of the country starve as long as they live luxurious sheltered lives with plenty of money in the bank
 

Goritoes

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Only if we dismantle Army as institution and rebuilt it than yes we may have the chance, or else there is no hope. Ek Haram khor GHQ se jaye ga tu dosra uski jaga le le ga.
 

Riz

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according to the 1980 prediction, pak would be among top 5 economic power in 2020 , but our generals successfully demolished that dream , hoping for the same in 2075 :lol:
 

truthseeker2010

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Idk if there is anything like it, this is what i got:

1670476145081.png
 

N.Siddiqui

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This prediction is about Pakistan would remain intact as a country in 2075, 53 years down the line.

So this is the good news.

With all the predictions about doom and gloom.
 

FuturePAF

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Quite possible, we just need stable Govt for at least 10 to 15 years.
We need a stable government from now on if we have any hope of even achieving half way close to those projections.

It’s the kind of pieces that would be used to make countries get overconfident before they actually became competitive, just look at what happened to Yugoslavia, Libya or Saddam’s Iraq.

There are so many structural reforms that need to be made that have to be in place for this to seem like a possibility. It’s not impossible, especially considering where the population is going to be.

It all comes down to if the current elite are willing to give up their elite capture to allow other to enter the market and compete on a level playing field.

Seeing these kinds of articles, not make me laugh, but make be sad, of the potential being squandered.
 
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N.Siddiqui

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Inshallah, Pakistani Generals would ensure that this prediction is falsified.


It is not possible that Generals remain in absolute power and Pakistan become the largest economy by 2075, chances are they will be cut to size and put in place.

The progress of the country is inversely proportional to the 'power and pelf' of the crooked and powerful Mil-Establishment.

Hopefully a rise of civilian supremacy will result in cutting of military powers, hoping against hope.
 

FuturePAF

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It is not possible that Generals remain in absolute power and Pakistan become the largest economy by 2075, chances are they will be cut to size and put in place.

The progress of the country is inversely proportional to the 'power and pelf' of the crooked and powerful Mil-Establishment.

Hopefully a rise of civilian supremacy will result in cutting of military powers, hoping against hope.
The elite have to be willing to give up some of their power to make room for productive people to grow the economy. Look at the US and look at Argentina. Similar climate, fertile land, and open door to skilled immigrants. A hundred years ago, similar living standards, but nowadays their economies couldn’t be more different.

We have a demographic window of next 30-40 years in which to develop or basically face permanent Indian hegemony of our region. Now is the time to make this change. 24 years ago Indonesia made a similar shift and look at them today (from a $95 Billion economy to a $1.2 Trillion economy) and where they are going in the next 25-29 years. That could be Pakistan over the next 53 years.

A growing economy is Also crucial for our defense. Investors won’t want any hurting an economy that is giving them the kind of returns an economy growing like Indonesia did the last two decades in our world of mostly slowing growth. Especially our neighbors would want good relations to capitalize on the growth. Not only would a growing economy make Afghans want to do business but would make Central Asia and China pressure Afghanistan to maintain stable and peaceful relations with Pakistan, creating the space to do even more business, especially in the mining sector. An economy that allows Pakistan to maintain its ability to be competitive with India on every metic, on a per capita basis and in some things punch above our weight maybe the only way to get India to resolve the Kashmir dispute in a way that is more satisfactory to the Kashmiris and to Pakistan.

These are just some of the things that are at stake if we build or fail to build our economy.
 
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Horse_Rider

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Those making projections to 2075, 53 years into the future, might as well use chicken bones and tarot cards.
The future that far ahead for any country is impossible to predict.

They aren't just reading some mantra and coming up with dates. These are the SAME economic powerhouses that projected (based on India's entry into US IT) back in 1995 that India will become a top 5 economy by 2020! WOW, look at that, how right they were.

One thing you (our Indian friends) need to understand, just like you, we have a huge population (5th largest). So while we may not be able to compete with you dollar by dollar and man by man, at some point (10 years of business savvy rule in Pakistan), we will go up. And if it's not the 5th top economy, Pakistan will be in top ten. There is no denying that fact. Pakistan just needs to stay put together and (credit due being given), work like our Indian friends who have learned that work ethic from the Americans.
 
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FuturePAF

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There was also the news from a few years ago, that the world bank estimated Pakistan could be a $2 trillion economy by 2047. One of their analysts estimated that if population growth remained the same, the economy would only be $1 trillion by 2047, assuming the population would be 376 million in 2047 at the current pace, but IMHO if we can grow our arable land that population growth will be an asset for long term steady and sustainable growth then a hindrance.

"More recent analysis suggests that elite capture continues to constrain economic policymaking". Since the 1980s, the share of industrialists in the National Assembly and parliament has doubled, blurring the barrier between politicians and businessmen.

It added policy uncertainty and a lack of trust in policy implementation affect firms' reactions to reforms and may affect the effectiveness of otherwise well-designed and implemented policies.

"Elite capture in Pakistan has affected policymaking, as in certain circumstances political leaders lack incentives to formulate policies in response to citizens' demands, or to work toward effective policy implementation," says the report.

From the article it lays out the groups that have benefited from the status quo. These groups will have to reinvest their profits back into making their industries productive at the very least (for example through property taxes) if we are to grow the economy enough to attract investors.

While citing a reference of a study, the report underlines that "there exist at least four influential groups that gained power through historic events and continue to leverage their influence on the political system for personal gain". These are civil servants, landowners, industrialists, and the military.

The WB states that there was evidence that Pakistan's elites have used this power in the past to undermine reforms that would have reduced their influence.
Reforms are the only way forward, potential is being squandered and these groups will benefit most of reforms in the long run by being potentially the first movers on any new projects.

The bond with regular people, but especially the most productive people in society is weakened as the status quo continues.

It argues that instability in the political system has reduced accountability and skewed leaders' incentives away from long-term reforms. The characteristics of Pakistan's political system have weakened the link between citizens and political leaders that is so crucial to sustaining the triangular relationship.

"Pakistan can boost its growth by investing in people, improving productivity, reforming institutions and protecting the natural environment," said the WB Group Vice President South Asian Region Hartwig Schafer.

The decisions over the next decade will determine Pakistan's future where it will stand in 2047. Will Pakistan rise to the challenges ahead and transform its economy or will Pakistan continue with the mixed record of reform implementation, failing to address the key constraints to growth, while another generation of Pakistanis sees limited welfare improvements, says the WB.


P.S. the high birth rate is not as much an issue if we can better manage water supplies and increase the amount of arable land through dams. We can increase arable land by more than 50% if we implement the Pakistan flood control system. We could increase it even further if we expand the canal network to resurrect the arable land in areas current desert but were where the main part of the Indus civilization lived (as proven by archeological sites) ; the land which is now the Thar desert (similar to what India is doing on its side of the border.

Sites along the ancient Ghaggar-Hakra River in current day Cholistan is the largest area that could probably be brought back into cultivation, with an expansion of the canal network.
1670507887339.png

Source for the graphic: https://byjus.com/free-ias-prep/important-facts-about-indus-valley-civilization-for-upsc-exams/


The population growth could farm this land, creating a larger agricultural sector.

If our population maxes out around 376/396 million as is projected by 2050/2060, that is a 75-80% increase over the current population. Reforms to water management and increase in arable land should be able to handle that, which IMHO would make the larger population a growth engine not a hindrance but an asset toward continuing economic growth beyond 2047, till at least 2075.
 
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hembo

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They aren't just reading some mantra and coming up with dates. These are the SAME economic powerhouses that projected based in India's entry into US IT back in 1995 that India will become a top 5 economy by 2020! WOW, look at that, how right they were.

One thing you (our Indian friends) need to understand, just like you, we have a huge population (5th largest). So while we may not be able to compete with you dollar by dollar and man by man, at some point (10 years of business savvy rule in Pakistan), we will go up. And if it's not the 5th top economy, Pakistan will be in top ten. There is no denying that fact. Pakistan just needs to stay put together and (credit due being given), work like our Indian friends who have learned that work ethic from the Americans.

I agree!! Both countries have tremendous scope to grow. Bus ye Kashmir ka churan dono ko bandh ke rakkha huwa hain. I guess, Pakistan is a bit more entangled (its fauz being the force majeure) than India to some extent.
 

Horse_Rider

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I agree!! Both countries have tremendous scope to grow. Bus ye Kashmir ka churan dono ko bandh ke rakkha huwa hain. I guess, Pakistan is a bit more entangled (its fauz being the force majeure) than India to some extent.


Pakistan is entangled with a LOT of stuff. Poor governance, lack of proper financial direction as our governments won't really complete their terms and the rug would be pulled from underneath them, leaving half done policies and tremendous financial loss as the next guy to come in, would do something totally opposite. Hopefully that circus is stopped. I think there is some more economical downturn and then certain policies will become a "must have" by anyone in power and couldn't be undone, generating enough revenue to grow.

I think in the near future, I could see Indian-Pakistan doing some pact on business (Consumables, IT, etc) and it's a win-win for everyone, especially India. Through trade, India gets easy access to send goods to Afghanistan and if she can connect with the CPEC, you'd get connected with Central Asia through Pakistan, etc. So hopefully the trade will start to normalize and people to people relationships will increase helping both sides to further grow.

The future MUST belong to Asia. Between India-Pakistan-China alone, that's about 3.3 BILLION people (40% of the entire globe) connected through short flight and roads and trains. Our GDP's could jump up a lot (and the largest Tech and Educated young talent).
 
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hembo

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I think in the near future, I could see Indian-Pakistan doing some pact on business (Consumables, IT, etc) and it's a win-win for everyone, especially India. Through trade, India gets easy access to Pakistan and if she can connect with the CPEC, you'd get connected with Central Asia through Pakistan, etc. So hopefully the trade will start to normalize and people to people relationships will increase helping both sides to further grow.

Unfortunately, I am not so enthusiastic about improvement of relationship, trades or otherwise, between us. At least not till some sort of agreement is reached/signed for the 75 year old dispute and both stop their respective covert divisionary tactics. And also Indian govt. will certainly keep a radioactive distance from CPEC, which will otherwise give some sort of legitimacy AJK and GB, which they, the present vociferously and the other govts in the past silently, claims as part of India.
The future MUST belong to Asia. Between India-Pakistan-China alone, that's about 3.3 BILLION people (40% of the entire globe) connected through short flight and roads and trains. Our GDP's could jump up a lot (and the largest Tech and Educated young talent).

This, I wholeheartedly agree. But, I don't see any quickfix between the trios, who are entangled in a web of border dispute so complex that I cannot foresee any plausible solution. So in the meanwhile China will keep growing fast, followed by, slowly but surely, India and BD. For Pakistan to jump in the bandwagon, hopefully after next election, some political stability comes and the Military power is cut back to actual required size. With too many power centres at the moment, it is truely unachievable at the moment, IMHO.
 
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