With production of 4mill tons of wheat and oil localy you would not have any debt, i would concentrate majority of economic efforts and projects around those two figures for decade at least.
Nobody is trusting the imported government, that is the reason they are struggling to get aid and bailouts,
Establishment just signed its own death warrant in bringing crooks back to power hence economy is taking a free fall in negative territory.
The economy had started doing that during the last few Khan months. The crisis precipitated when political instability also became a reality. Last straw that broke the camel's back if you will. Dar burnt dollar reserves to keep imports cheap to enable quick resolution of the power crisis that relied on the import of generation/construction machinery (his cardinal sin). PTI relied on a free float as the only mean to combat import growth (managing the CAD) which became its cardinal sin.
The lesson for managers of the economy and the public is that economy is a complex beast. One can't rely on singular levers to tame it. A multipronged strategy is required to navigate the ship of an economy as fragile and lacking in depth as Pakistan's.
As net importers, we would always land in this trouble if import growth is not perpetually kept under control. Things would get worse, not better from here on. We have begun seeing signs of what climate change looks like (Mango production halved due to peak heat during the bloom season) and the mighty Indus drying up in downstream Pakistan. The production of staple crops would decline with growing variability in climate patterns leaving Pakistani food security at the mercy of the global geopolitical climate and supply chains. Energy insecurity will continue to intensify while renewable is frowned upon/actively sabotaged (17% GST on import of solar panels; was it to encourage domestic production/relocation of the industry?).
So, managing the Pakistani economy will become a challenge no government has seen in our history in the near future. We might have already missed the train courtesy of establishment shenanigans since 2007 where political/security stability could have resulted in a focus on relatively simpler fixes (by then) and more receptive global audiences. Might be too late for us now. The prospects of Pakistan becoming another global basket case have never been as real as these are today!
Loads of blame to go around.
