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Pakistan needs to control population growth to become high middle-income country'

Discussion in 'Social & Current Events' started by DANCING GIRL, Feb 25, 2018.

  1. DANCING GIRL

    DANCING GIRL SENIOR MEMBER

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    ‘Pakistan needs to control population growth to become high middle-income country'
    By Shahbaz Rana
    Published: February 22, 2018
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    World Bank country director says next 10 years are critical for the country PHOTO:EXPRESS

    BHURBAN: Pakistan will have to reduce its current population growth rate to half in the next 30 years to achieve the status of a high middle-income country, as the current pace of increase in population is a barrier to becoming a prosperous nation, said World Bank Country Director Patchamuthu Illango.

    “Pakistan will remain a low-income country even after 30 years when it turns 100, if it does not control the exploding population bomb,” said Illango while speaking at a seminar.

    For the next 30 years, there are two possible pathways for Pakistan’s economy and two different futures, he added. The recent population census revealed a number of 207.7 million. If we project that to 2047, then Pakistan’s population will be 400 million people, he added.


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    If we project the economic growth rate of the last 70 years to next 30 years, then the GDP per capita of Pakistan could be the same as today, said Illango. Pakistan’s per capita income is $1,629, which clubs it among low-income nations.

    Illango said that on the other hand, if Pakistan is able to contain its population growth rate to around 1% or below and the economy grows at a higher rate than 8%, Pakistan’s GDP per capita will be around $10,000 in 2047.

    At slightly over $12,000 per capita income, a country is treated as a high income nation.

    The World Bank official said that the next 10 years are critical to lay the foundation for a more prosperous economy when Pakistan turns 100 years old. This miracle can be achieved in a generation, he added.

    Illango also spoke at length about the current vulnerable macroeconomic situation. Pakistan’s economy was facing short-term headwinds that were largely caused by an external trade situation, he added.

    The headwinds are likely to continue until adjustments are made in the macroeconomic framework, said the World Bank country director.

    He said that even after 5.2% recent devaluation in the rupee, Pakistan needs more flexibility to enhance the foreign currency reserves in order to stabilise them around two and half months of import bill cover.

    The country booked seven-month highest ever current account deficit of $9.2 billion during July-January period, which was higher than its annual projection. With widening current account deficit, the foreign currency reserves slid to only $12.8 billion.

    Illango said exports have started picking up but a lot more needs to be done. The tax-to-GDP ratio has increased to 12.4% but still it is not adequate, as less than 1% of the population is currently in the tax base, said the country director.

    There should be greater coordination between the federal and provincial governments on tax policy and their operations, he added.

    Responding to a question, he said that the World Bank requires an adequate macroeconomic framework to provide budgetary support. The World Bank is not processing budgetary loans due to vulnerabilities of the macroeconomic framework.

    To another question, Illango said that it will be up to the government whether it needs an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme while keeping in mind the balance of payments requirements.

    “If you have revenues growing, exports earnings going up and import bill is manageable then you don’t have a situation to go back to the IMF.”

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    He said that Pakistan did well during the first two years of IMF programme in 2013 and 2014 when this government took stabilisation measures.

    Resultantly, Pakistan had the best growth rate in 2016-17 in 10 years. The tax-to-GDP ratio rose and budget deficit was fairly managed.

    In the last one year, the external sector situation has caused the current problems that Pakistan’s economy is facing today, he added.

    Many economic challenges exist because of lack of political consensus, said Illango. “If political consensus is reached among major political parties and other key stakeholders, then the direction of the economy will be on one sustainable path.

    “Hopefully, all the political parties will reach a consensus that the overall framework of the economy should be consistent, irrespective of which political party is in power.”

    He said that the World Bank was still looking at GDP projections and would give its number for the current fiscal year by April. The government’s official target is 6%.

    Published in The Express Tribune, February 22nd, 2018.

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  2. Iqbal Ali

    Iqbal Ali SENIOR MEMBER

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    I disagree with the article. Having a large population is a blessing. Look how much influence China and India get for having a large population. They also have large diasporas as well.

    look at Japan even though it is a large economy, it has a tiny population which will make Japan irrelevant in international politics.
     
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  3. Ashik Mahmud

    Ashik Mahmud FULL MEMBER

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    Density:
    BD: ~1200/km2
    Pakistan: ~244/km2
    India: ~400/km2

    UK: 270/km2
    Germany: 232/km2
    Netherland: 415/km2

    Pakistan as country can afford to have more population but the article's point is right that in order to get to high middle-income economy in a reasonable time, you need to lower population growth. Otherwise, countries in similar level to PK will have higher income growth per person. On the macro economic picture, Pakistan's growth will remain but with more people, there'll be less income per person growth.
     
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  4. DANCING GIRL

    DANCING GIRL SENIOR MEMBER

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    I donot know about China but the benefits received by the India having large population are very well described by a NGO as follows
    Forget demographic dividend, half of India's rural youth can't even tell time
    ET Online|
    Jan 16, 2018, 08.00 PM IST
    61
    61Comments
    [​IMG]
    ndia needs trained manpower to boost its manufacturing capabilities, but a large number of Indian youths may lack even basic employability.
    India's predominantly youth population is seen as a demographic dividend when many countries have aging populations. But India's demographic dividend may not result in an economic dividend. India needs trained manpower to boost its manufacturing capabilities, but a large number of Indian youths may lack even basic employability.
    Not just this. The survey says most of them cannot even tell the time correctly. "For the easy task (hour), 83% got it correct. But for the slightly harder task (hour and minutes) a little less than 60% got it right," it says.

    76% of surveyed youth could count money correctly. For those who had basic arithmetic skills, the figure was close to 90%.

    56% could add weights correctly in kilograms. For those who have basic math skills, the figure is 76%.
    The survey had four examples of basic calculation. Managing a budget: You have Rs. 50 and you are looking at a rate list for snacks. Which three items can you buy so that fifty rupees is completely spent? Taking purchase decisions: In the second task, youths need to buy a set of five books. Two different prices are being offered in two different shops. Which shop will you go to if you want to spend the least amount of money possible? And, how much will you spend?
    "Unless we ensure that our young people reach adulthood with the knowledge, skills, and
    opportunities they need to help themselves, their families, and their communities move forward, India’s much awaited ‘demographic dividend’ will not materialize. Our interactions with youth in this age group suggest that as a country we urgently need to attend to their needs. ASER 2017 is an attempt to shine a spotlight on this situation and hopefully start a nation-wide discussion about the way forw ..


    That's what a recent survey shows.

    The 2017 Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) by NGO Pratham has come up with shocking revelations ..


    Read more at:
    //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/62525094.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
     
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  5. denel

    denel FULL MEMBER

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    Not if you have lack of education, health, water, sanitation. Population control is a must for a developing country.
     
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  6. Iqbal Ali

    Iqbal Ali SENIOR MEMBER

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    Perhaps you are right bro, but still a large educated population is better than a smaller educated population.
     
  7. Thəorətic Muslim

    Thəorətic Muslim SENIOR MEMBER

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    Those saying Pakistan can afford a larger population... tell me how. when arable land is being converted into shopping centers, water table is declining, less water from glaciers.
     
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  8. Homo Sapiens

    Homo Sapiens SENIOR MEMBER

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    Do you think Pakistan can support the same population as China or India?
    Just counting population per sq. km to gauze whether a country is over populated or not is not very effective.Not all land can support same amount of people. Seventy-five percent land in Pakistan is filled with deserts, mountains and glaciers. Which is not suitable for dense human habitation or economic activities.Pakistan is about to become an water stressed country within the next decade. Indus and it's tributary is the only river in Pakistan, which is heavily utilized for agriculture and power generation. Water flow in Indus is not increasing, rather decreasing. Pakistan is 6 times bigger than BD in land size, but it's food grain production is about the same as Bangladesh and per capita fresh water availability is much lower than in BD. So Pakistan can at maximum support the population level of Bangladesh comfortably if you consider long term perspective.Given that population growth in Pakistan is still uncontrolled, it is heading a massive food and water crisis in the near future.
     
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  9. Valar.

    Valar. FULL MEMBER

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    Maximum 2 kids should be allowed.