• Friday, May 26, 2017

Pakistan is now a $300-billion economy "Growth rate hits nine-year high of 5.28pc"

Discussion in 'Pakistan Economy' started by Devil Soul, May 18, 2017.

  1. Devil Soul

    Devil Soul ELITE MEMBER

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    Pakistan is now a $300-billion economy
    By Shahbaz Rana
    Published: May 18, 2017
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    PHOTO: INP

    ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has achieved 5.3% economic growth, the highest in a decade, on the back of recovery in the agriculture sector and better-than-expected performance in the services sector, stated the government on the basis of provisional figures.

    The growth puts the country in the league of economies that have a size of over $300 billion.

    Gross Domestic Product, the monetary value of all goods and services produced in one year, is projected to have grown at a rate of 5.28% during the fiscal year 2016-17 ending on June 30, National Accounts Committee (NAC) said.




    World bank report: Pakistan among top 10 economies

    However, the figure is provisional and subject to variations once the final results are available at the end of the fiscal year.

    At 5.3%, Pakistan’s economic growth has finally attained the pace it had before the crisis hit the country in 2008.

    For the next fiscal year 2017-18, the government has set the GDP growth target at 6%.

    Nonetheless, the PML-N government again missed its annual GDP growth target of 5.7% for the outgoing fiscal year. Yet, the results were better than the forecasts made by international financial institutions.

    As a result of over 5% growth rate, the nominal size of Pakistan’s economy increased to $304.4 billion.

    Understanding GDP growth

    Slightly over two-thirds of the growth – 67% to be precise – came from the services sector, which performed even better than the estimates. The government achieved services and agriculture sectors growth targets but missed the industrial sector growth target despite heavy focus on it.

    Despite a better economic performance, the growth rate was still insufficient to absorb the youth bulge and any pace of growth below this rate would increase unemployment. The government also failed to address serious issues like stagnant investments and savings in terms of total size of the GDP and declining exports.

    Against the annual target of $24.8 billion, the government has now expected that the exports would remain close to $21.7 billion and even imports are likely to exceed the $45.2 billion projections.

    [​IMG]

    The current account deficit target of $4.5 billion has been missed by a wide margin and now the government expects an $8.3 billion current account deficit by June this year.

    The contraction in exports remained a big challenge due to lack of focus on value addition sectors, said Ahsan Iqbal, Federal Minister for Planning and Development on Wednesday. But he said that the government’s focus on energy and infrastructure helped achieve the 10-year high growth rate of 5.3%.

    In its 98th meeting, the NAC approved the provisional growth rate for the outgoing fiscal year, revised down the 2015-16 growth rate to 4.5% and approved the final growth figure of 2014-15 at 4.1%, according to NAC documents.

    Finance Minister Ishaq Dar will formally announce a provisional growth rate of 5.3% on May 25, with the release of the 2016-17 Economic Survey of Pakistan.

    Out of total 20 key growth indicators, 11 hit the government’s targeted growth rates while 9 indicators, primarily in industrial sector, remained below expectations.

    Agriculture

    After witnessing flat growth in the last fiscal year, the agriculture sector this time performed better due to exceptional growth in forestry and better performance of major important crops. The sector grew at a pace of 3.5%, equivalent to the annual target.

    After facing criticism, the ruling PML-N government finally focused on the sector, which paid dividends. The sector employs close to 37% of the labour force.

    Production of major crops saw 4.1% growth but in case of other crops, the target was missed as these minor crops witnessed hardly any growth. Cotton ginning remained even better than the 2.5% target and showed 5.6% growth. Livestock also posted 3.4% growth but missed the annual target with a small margin. Forestry sector showed 14.5% growth, which was many times more than the 3% annual target. Fishing sector grew by only 1.2% against 3% target.

    Industries

    The government missed all its targets set for the industrial sector despite having the most favoured status. There was presumably zero load-shedding for the sector and it also won many incentives from the government.

    Agriculture is backbone of our economy: Jhagra

    However, against a target of 7.7%, output stood at 5%. The output of large-scale manufacturing stood at 4.9%, below the official target while small-scale manufacturing grew to 8.1%, slaughtering 3.6%, electricity generation and distribution only 3.4% against a target of 12.5%, mining and quarrying sub sector grew only 1.3% against a target of 7.4%. The construction sector grew at a pace of 9% but missed the target of 15.2%.

    Services

    The services sector, which accounts for more than half the economy, grew by almost 6% against a target of 5.7%. Aided by heavy government borrowing and an increase in the money supply, the financial services sector and government services beat expectations. Wholesale and retail trade posted 6.8% growth against a target of 5.5%. Transport, storage & communication sub sector saw 3.9% growth. Finance and insurance witnessed 10.8% growth against a target of 7.2%.

    Published in The Express Tribune, May 18th, 2017.
     
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  2. Devil Soul

    Devil Soul ELITE MEMBER

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    Growth rate hits nine-year high of 5.28pc
    MUBARAK ZEB KHANUPDATED ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO
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    ISLAMABAD: The government on Wednesday announced it is going to miss the economic growth target for 2016-17 because of an underperformance by the industrial and services sectors.

    This will be the fourth year in a row that the PML-N government has missed the annual economic growth rate target.

    The economy grew at the rate of 5.28 per cent against the projected rate of 5.7pc in 2016-17. It is the fastest pace of growth since 2006-07 when GDP expanded by 6.8pc.

    The target was 5.5pc last year, but the growth rate remained 4.51pc.

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    Misses target for fourth year in a row
    Growth targets were also revised downwards to 4.06pc in 2014-15 and 4.1pc in 2013-14.

    The mater was discussed in a meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Wednesday. Only 10 out of 20 key growth indicators were on target, NAC documents showed. The growth rate, however, is provisional as final numbers for the full year will firm up later.

    The agriculture sector, which contracted in 2015-16, witnessed growth of 3.46pc, just below its target of 3.5pc, in the outgoing fiscal year.

    Major crops recorded growth of 4.12pc against the target of 2.5pc. Growth in the production of five important crops, namely wheat, maize, rice, sugarcane and cotton, is estimated to be 0.5pc, 16.3pc, 0.7pc, 12.4pc and 7.6pc, respectively.

    There is a fear that the low yield of minor crops can lead to higher food inflation. Other crops are estimated to post growth of 0.21pc against the target of 3.2pc.

    Livestock, the second largest sub-sector of agriculture, posted growth of 3.43pc against the target of 4pc.

    The fishery sector expanded 1.23pc against 3pc last year. Forestry grew 14.49pc against the target of 3pc. Growth in fishery and forestry reflected the last year’s trend.

    The industrial sector posted growth of 5.02pc against the target of 7.7pc in 2016-17. Last year, it grew 5.80pc. The mining and quarrying sector recorded growth of 1.34pc against the target of 7.4pc. Manufacturing recorded growth of 5.27pc against the target of 6.1pc. Growth in the manufacturing sector was 3.66pc last year.

    Large-scale manufacturing posted growth of 4.93pc against the target of 5.4pc. Small-scale manufacturing expanded 8.18pc against the target of 8.2pc while slaughtering grew 3.61pc against the target of 3.7pc. Major contributors to this growth were sugar (29.33pc), cement (7.19pc), tractors (72.9pc), trucks (39.31pc) and buses (19.71pc).

    Growth in the construction sector was 9.05pc compared to 14.60pc last year. It missed its growth target (13.2pc) for the outgoing fiscal year. Supply of electricity and gas also depicted growth of 3.40pc against the target of 12.5pc. The electricity and gas sub-sector showed low growth due to reduced subsidies for K-Electric and Wapda and its companies.

    The services sector grew 5.98pc in 2016-17 against the target of 5.7pc. Last year, it grew 5.55pc. Major contributors were the general government services, which rose 6.91pc against the target of 7pc. It was mainly driven by the increase in salaries and inflation.

    Finance and insurance grew 10.77pc against the target of 7.2pc mainly because of high growth of deposits (15pc) and loans (11pc). The housing services depicted growth of 3.99pc against the target of 3.99pc. Transport, storage and communication rose 3.94pc against the target of 5.1pc.

    Wholesale and retail trade witnessed growth of 6.82pc against the target of 5.5pc in the outgoing fiscal year. It depends on the output of agriculture, manufacturing and imports. Agriculture increased 3.46pc, manufacturing 5.27pc and imports 19.32pc.

    Published in Dawn, May 18th, 2017
     
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  3. Stealth

    Stealth SENIOR MEMBER

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    tax payers pe tax laga laga kar aur loan lay lay kar 300B! 79B$ Debt ... pata nahe kya koom ko pagal samajtay hain
     
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  4. Ryuzaki

    Ryuzaki SENIOR MEMBER

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    Congrats,significant milestone for Pakistan
     
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  5. doe33

    doe33 BANNED

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    wow congratulation..
     
  6. Talwar e Pakistan

    Talwar e Pakistan SENIOR MEMBER

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    Only less than 0.1% pay taxes. 79B$ debt is ratio-wise much below the world average.

    According to IMF, Pakistan's GDP stands at 317 billion.
     
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  7. qw1

    qw1 FULL MEMBER

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    Off topic/Sh!tpost but here is a reply:

    [​IMG]

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    want more?
     
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  8. xyxmt

    xyxmt BANNED

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    how does high rises fare in development, i know you are being sarcastic but to disappoint you no they are not high rises they are 50 year old buildings.
     
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  9. qw1

    qw1 FULL MEMBER

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    Go attend maths class instead of wasting time here. Bye
     
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  10. save_ghenda

    save_ghenda SENIOR MEMBER

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    Forget about IMF. $305b is real figure for 2016-17. If Pakistan didn't miss growth target then GDP could have been $318b depending on inflation and exchange rate.
     
  11. Talwar e Pakistan

    Talwar e Pakistan SENIOR MEMBER

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    I see, by the way; have we received any GDP per Capita figures yet?
     
  12. WhyCry

    WhyCry BANNED

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    Nice Work... Hopefully Nawaz comes to power as this is a good achievement.
     
  13. save_ghenda

    save_ghenda SENIOR MEMBER

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    Census isn't complete yet but if Pak population is 200 million then per capita is $1525.
     
  14. Syed1.

    Syed1. FULL MEMBER

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    We need to be 1 trillion economy ASAP.
     
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  15. Dark-Silence

    Dark-Silence FULL MEMBER

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    only game of figures... poor is getting poorer and rich are getting more.:hitwall:
     
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