Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

[Shabi1]

TAI does not have the expertise to upgrade to block 70 version. It would be performed in the US, unless PAF is able to push for a local upgrade at PAC, though that seems unlikely.
There is also little sense in upgrading really old airframes to the latest version, such as the Jordanian aircraft. If anything, upgrade just the latest block 52s and buy another squadron of new aircraft. Use the radars and other equipment to update the block 15ADFs to the same MLU standards basically as the current fleet.
That means any used aircraft could be early C/D variants or lower life (if any) block 15s. Looks like there are 201/37 A/B variants and 112/13 C/D variants in storage at the dessert, give or take.
I think even having a fleet of 45-60 block 70s, both upgraded and new, would be very potent and could lead the existing MLU birds in cooperative engagements. Don't think we need to or can afford to have every single aircraft upgraded.
Coupled with block IIIs, we are going to be in a very good position to work on AZM.

Block-70 are only available new, latest upgrade standard is named F-16V (Viper).
TAI is a licensed producer to Lockheed Martin, what they can do is get parts from LM in form kits and integrate on behalf of LM, same as was done with previous PAF jets. Logistically its simpler to fly the jets to Turkey rather than US.
Besides Turkey is working on its own domestic AESA radar and upgrades for its F-16s. This would need blessing of LM in the form of certification or will need to prepare disownment from LM for performance of the product. F-5 and F-4 upgrades from non manufacturers have been done in past. No idea on how TAI intends to finally implement it.
Under Biden I suspect Turkey will still be barred from F-35 and future tech but expect remaining cooperation to restore. This sill give India some relief from CAATSA on S-400 purchase as well.

 

[Reichmarshal]

the mlu program was actually supposed to be undertaken in the u.s and at PAC. our techs were to train in the u.s with the u.s techs and from the expertise gained the rest of the mlu program was to be undertaken at pac.
but then our dear friend stepped in and it happened in turkey.

 

[TNT]

Any idea how many hours on average we fly an F16 in a year? We need to reduce hours on F16 to preserve its life.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

@Yasser76

IMO ...

Washington will normalize Indo-Pak relations and make the LoC a permanent border so India can focus on China. In return, Pakistan will get to flush India's influence in Afghanistan, and be the primary caretaker of Afghanistan moving forward.

US arms aside, I think we'll see a conversation about Pakistan building a noticeable presence in Afghanistan.

Everything from the ISI returning to Kabul to Pakistani aircraft flying overhead is going to be on the cards. Basically, whatever it takes for (1) Pakistan to feel secure, but (2) without hurting the Indians.

It's not so much about giving India hegemony, but to simply split South Asia into halves, and give one half to Pakistan (the west) and the other to India (east). That split is a border in Kashmir.

In return, the US can remove its forces out of the region yet still maintain influence in Afghanistan (via Pakistan).

This 'tweak' actually makes Pakistan's growing ties with Turkey a lot more logical now. The US can use Turkey to funnel whatever Pakistan needs (esp. US-origin technologies). So, the T129, the LM2500-equipped MILGEMs, the GE-equipped TFX, etc, does make sense under this framework.

 

[mingle]

@Yasser76

IMO ...

Washington will normalize Indo-Pak relations and make the LoC a permanent border so India can focus on China. In return, Pakistan will get to flush India's influence in Afghanistan, and be the primary caretaker of Afghanistan moving forward.

US arms aside, I think we'll see a conversation about Pakistan building a noticeable presence in Afghanistan.

Everything from the ISI returning to Kabul to Pakistani aircraft flying overhead is going to be on the cards. Basically, whatever it takes for (1) Pakistan to feel secure, but (2) without hurting the Indians.

It's not so much about giving India hegemony, but to simply split South Asia into halves, and give one half to Pakistan (the west) and the other to India (east). That split is a border in Kashmir.

In return, the US can remove its forces out of the region yet still maintain influence in Afghanistan (via Pakistan).

This 'tweak' actually makes Pakistan's growing ties with Turkey a lot more logical now. The US can use Turkey to funnel whatever Pakistan needs (esp. US-origin technologies). So, the T129, the LM2500-equipped MILGEMs, the GE-equipped TFX, etc, does make sense under this framework.

I hope you will prove correct will love to see LM in Pakistan with Good number of F16s

 

[MIRauf]

@Yasser76

IMO ...

Washington will normalize Indo-Pak relations and make the LoC a permanent border so India can focus on China. In return, Pakistan will get to flush India's influence in Afghanistan, and be the primary caretaker of Afghanistan moving forward.

US arms aside, I think we'll see a conversation about Pakistan building a noticeable presence in Afghanistan.

Everything from the ISI returning to Kabul to Pakistani aircraft flying overhead is going to be on the cards. Basically, whatever it takes for (1) Pakistan to feel secure, but (2) without hurting the Indians.

It's not so much about giving India hegemony, but to simply split South Asia into halves, and give one half to Pakistan (the west) and the other to India (east). That split is a border in Kashmir.

In return, the US can remove its forces out of the region yet still maintain influence in Afghanistan (via Pakistan).

This 'tweak' actually makes Pakistan's growing ties with Turkey a lot more logical now. The US can use Turkey to funnel whatever Pakistan needs (esp. US-origin technologies). So, the T129, the LM2500-equipped MILGEMs, the GE-equipped TFX, etc, does make sense under this framework.

Pak should push for better negotiation on Kashmir. The split was only suppose to allow Srinager and mostly Hindu majority areas to go to India, rest to Pakistan. That is still possible if Pak thinks that US wants India to solely be concerned with China.

Dang ZAB, should have taken the IG's offer on the settlement.

 

[Yasser76]

@Yasser76

IMO ...

Washington will normalize Indo-Pak relations and make the LoC a permanent border so India can focus on China. In return, Pakistan will get to flush India's influence in Afghanistan, and be the primary caretaker of Afghanistan moving forward.

US arms aside, I think we'll see a conversation about Pakistan building a noticeable presence in Afghanistan.

Everything from the ISI returning to Kabul to Pakistani aircraft flying overhead is going to be on the cards. Basically, whatever it takes for (1) Pakistan to feel secure, but (2) without hurting the Indians.

It's not so much about giving India hegemony, but to simply split South Asia into halves, and give one half to Pakistan (the west) and the other to India (east). That split is a border in Kashmir.

In return, the US can remove its forces out of the region yet still maintain influence in Afghanistan (via Pakistan).

This 'tweak' actually makes Pakistan's growing ties with Turkey a lot more logical now. The US can use Turkey to funnel whatever Pakistan needs (esp. US-origin technologies). So, the T129, the LM2500-equipped MILGEMs, the GE-equipped TFX, etc, does make sense under this framework.

I do agree with you, however I also feel, and the US certainly knows this, that it is losing what little leverage it has in Pakistan. For the last 10 years it seemed it cared little anyway, and what we have certainly seen in the last 10 years is the balance that Pakistan used to maintain in ties between US and China has now become a heavy economic, social, technological and military tilt toward China. (CPEC, JF-17, Nuke plants, investments etc). The US realises it let this happen for various reasons ("Do more in Afghanistan", and to keep India happy).

Afghan end game is coming and also indepenent of that there is the fact Pakistan has formidable defence forces, borders Iran, occupies a very strategic space, consumer market of 220 million people and has nukes.

Leaving Afghan aside for a second and looking at Pakistan in that prism, would you want to lose it entirely to China? Maybe not.

Now issue is this. 10-15 years ago Block 52, P-3C, Harpoons and AH-1Z were cutting edge, in many respects they still are, but this will not be the case 10 years from now.

10 years from now PN will have it's own LRMPA independent of US. Possibly T-129s with Turkish engine and AZM may well be being produced. What then? Maybe US will have economic leverage (help at World Bank etc) but China will be world's largest economy in 2028. US economy will lag behind even further by 2031.

No military leverage and no economic leverage and Pakistan basically "China's Israel" by the Persian Gulf, Nuke armed.


You have to look at where the world is going, not where it is now. Thankfully we had the foresight to free ourselves of dependence on US. In the light of this I would say PAF would be happy to get another big batch of F-16s and maybe V upgrades, but walking away is not the disaster it would of been 10-15 years ago.

Hopefully just like PN chief did in his leaving speech, we may get current ACM giving us insight into what PAF will be like 10 years from now

 

[mingle]

I do agree with you, however I also feel, and the US certainly knows this, that it is losing what little leverage it has in Pakistan. For the last 10 years it seemed it cared little anyway, and what we have certainly seen in the last 10 years is the balance that Pakistan used to maintain in ties between US and China has now become a heavy economic, social, technological and military tilt toward China. (CPEC, JF-17, Nuke plants, investments etc). The US realises it let this happen for various reasons ("Do more in Afghanistan", and to keep India happy).

Afghan end game is coming and also indepenent of that there is the fact Pakistan has formidable defence forces, borders Iran, occupies a very strategic space, consumer market of 220 million people and has nukes.

Leaving Afghan aside for a second and looking at Pakistan in that prism, would you want to lose it entirely to China? Maybe not.

Now issue is this. 10-15 years ago Block 52, P-3C, Harpoons and AH-1Z were cutting edge, in many respects they still are, but this will not be the case 10 years from now.

10 years from now PN will have it's own LRMPA independent of US. Possibly T-129s with Turkish engine and AZM may well be being produced. What then? Maybe US will have economic leverage (help at World Bank etc) but China will be world's largest economy in 2028. US economy will lag behind even further by 2031.

No military leverage and no economic leverage and Pakistan basically "China's Israel" by the Persian Gulf, Nuke armed.


You have to look at where the world is going, not where it is now. Thankfully we had the foresight to free ourselves of dependence on US. In the light of this I would say PAF would be happy to get another big batch of F-16s and maybe V upgrades, but walking away is not the disaster it would of been 10-15 years ago.

Hopefully just like PN chief did in his leaving speech, we may get current ACM giving us insight into what PAF will be like 10 years from now

Watch at woodrow Wilson today on YouTube Dr Moeed interview he talked what Bilal is asking a partnership with US not assistance both military and economic and while US according woodrow Wilson US looking a joint CT base or force with Pakistan inside Afghanistan or somewhere in region to keep these groups in check So I won't be surprise what Bilal mentioned above. Aslo US Deputy defence secretary last vist few days back is emphasis stretegic military partnership not simple military to military relations. So expect big order like vipers or more Zulus even engines for ATAK Goodtimes are ahead for PakUS relationship IA

 

[GriffinsRule]

@Yasser76

IMO ...

Washington will normalize Indo-Pak relations and make the LoC a permanent border so India can focus on China. In return, Pakistan will get to flush India's influence in Afghanistan, and be the primary caretaker of Afghanistan moving forward.

US arms aside, I think we'll see a conversation about Pakistan building a noticeable presence in Afghanistan.

Everything from the ISI returning to Kabul to Pakistani aircraft flying overhead is going to be on the cards. Basically, whatever it takes for (1) Pakistan to feel secure, but (2) without hurting the Indians.

It's not so much about giving India hegemony, but to simply split South Asia into halves, and give one half to Pakistan (the west) and the other to India (east). That split is a border in Kashmir.

In return, the US can remove its forces out of the region yet still maintain influence in Afghanistan (via Pakistan).

This 'tweak' actually makes Pakistan's growing ties with Turkey a lot more logical now. The US can use Turkey to funnel whatever Pakistan needs (esp. US-origin technologies). So, the T129, the LM2500-equipped MILGEMs, the GE-equipped TFX, etc, does make sense under this framework.

I sincerely hope that is not the case Bilal. First off, India has already been pushed out of Afghanistan and any remnants will be expelled without any US help sooner than later. Second, why would Pakistan in its right mind put itself in a position to be a caretaker of a broken mess of country. We cant even keep our own shit together much less try to be responsible for a crap hole of a country like Afghanistan.
Next why would we let India off the hook so easily where they are able to concentrate on the LAC vs a second front? Also not sure if US needs a funnel via Turkey instead of supplying Pakistan directly.

 

[araz]

Watch at woodrow Wilson today on YouTube Dr Moeed interview he talked what Bilal is asking a partnership with US not assistance both military and economic and while US according woodrow Wilson US looking a joint CT base or force with Pakistan inside Afghanistan or somewhere in region to keep these groups in check So I won't be surprise what Bilal mentioned above. Aslo US Deputy defence secretary last vist few days back is emphasis stretegic military partnership not simple military to military relations. So expect big order like vipers or more Zulus even engines for ATAK Goodtimes are ahead for PakUS relationship IA

That would be a disaster. At no cost should Pak commit its forces in Afghanistan.
A

 

[The Eagle]

@Yasser76

IMO ...

Washington will normalize Indo-Pak relations and make the LoC a permanent border so India can focus on China. In return, Pakistan will get to flush India's influence in Afghanistan, and be the primary caretaker of Afghanistan moving forward.

US arms aside, I think we'll see a conversation about Pakistan building a noticeable presence in Afghanistan.

Everything from the ISI returning to Kabul to Pakistani aircraft flying overhead is going to be on the cards. Basically, whatever it takes for (1) Pakistan to feel secure, but (2) without hurting the Indians.

It's not so much about giving India hegemony, but to simply split South Asia into halves, and give one half to Pakistan (the west) and the other to India (east). That split is a border in Kashmir.

In return, the US can remove its forces out of the region yet still maintain influence in Afghanistan (via Pakistan).

This 'tweak' actually makes Pakistan's growing ties with Turkey a lot more logical now. The US can use Turkey to funnel whatever Pakistan needs (esp. US-origin technologies). So, the T129, the LM2500-equipped MILGEMs, the GE-equipped TFX, etc, does make sense under this framework.

I can't add anything for above scenarios though I have one different opinion in regard to Kashmir & LoC becoming a full time Border. In my opinion, Kashmir will be sorted out as an Independent having presence of UN or US Themselves. Not to forget how Israelis love that space up-north. I think Biden administration will work out a strategy plan so the Kashmiris will achieve their struggle for self determination/an Independent State. That is exactly being demanded since day first.

In-case of turning LoC into a permanent border; I don't think Pakistanis will let it happen no matter who is the PM. It has to be seen in view of sentimental relations to Kashmir, the emotions of Pakistanis and above all, the years of struggle by Pakistanis regardless of Civil or Mil for Kashmir independence. By an independent Kashmir, this side wouldn't object neither the people.

 

[mingle]

That would be a disaster. At no cost should Pak commit its forces in Afghanistan.
A

It's stared very early days of Trump administration when Rex tillerson was FS he asked Pak to increase footprint in Afghanistan which now we see vocal by Biden I believe CT force will be somewhere else but role of ISI jont with CIA will increase in Afghanistan if india is out as loyyed Austin said about punishment for spoilers they know who is spoiler then nothing wrong increasing footprint along US in Afghanistan because our enemies are hiding there in name of TTP and ISK when we talk about partnership as Moeed said at woodrow Wilson yesterday this fits in Pak needs US as much Pakistan needs China So my two cents Role will be like Taliban era not uniform forces stationed in Afghanistan.

I can't add anything for above scenarios though I have one different opinion in regard to Kashmir & LoC becoming a full time Border. In my opinion, Kashmir will be sorted out as an Independent having presence of UN or US Themselves. Not to forget how Israelis love that space up-north. I think Biden administration will work out a strategy plan so the Kashmiris will achieve their struggle for self determination/an Independent State. That is exactly being demanded since day first.

In-case of turning LoC into a permanent border; I don't think Pakistanis will let it happen no matter who is the PM. It has to be seen in view of sentimental relations to Kashmir, the emotions of Pakistanis and above all, the years of struggle by Pakistanis regardless of Civil or Mil for Kashmir independence. By an independent Kashmir, this side wouldn't object neither the people.

I believe US will enforce Mush formula what him and Vajpaee agreed was acceptable by both sides

 

[Danish Moazzam]

All this talk about viper upgrades and new build jets. Do not that the current latest block jets are under continuous American watch

With all planes and additional jets upgraded to v configuration it will be a nightmare to keep them with American watch and away from Chinese engineers.

So I think we might get few mlu planes upgraded to v config and few block 70.

That is all the potential. Rest we should continue to focus on thunders and Azm

 

[ziaulislam]

Any idea how many hours on average we fly an F16 in a year? We need to reduce hours on F16 to preserve its life.

yo will soon have another MLU available for f16s..
taiwan A/Bs are going through a 12000 hours MLU

Pak should push for better negotiation on Kashmir. The split was only suppose to allow Srinager and mostly Hindu majority areas to go to India, rest to Pakistan. That is still possible if Pak thinks that US wants India to solely be concerned with China.

Dang ZAB, should have taken the IG's offer on the settlement.

noone has the power to muscle india into deal, USA doesnt has that power
at best it can just ask things to cool down but kashmiris are angry ..they want stay quiet

the are angry at india and to some degree at pakistan(dont why)

so this isnt happening

 

[Reddawn]

@Yasser76

IMO ...

Washington will normalize Indo-Pak relations and make the LoC a permanent border so India can focus on China. In return, Pakistan will get to flush India's influence in Afghanistan, and be the primary caretaker of Afghanistan moving forward.

US arms aside, I think we'll see a conversation about Pakistan building a noticeable presence in Afghanistan.

Everything from the ISI returning to Kabul to Pakistani aircraft flying overhead is going to be on the cards. Basically, whatever it takes for (1) Pakistan to feel secure, but (2) without hurting the Indians.

It's not so much about giving India hegemony, but to simply split South Asia into halves, and give one half to Pakistan (the west) and the other to India (east). That split is a border in Kashmir.

In return, the US can remove its forces out of the region yet still maintain influence in Afghanistan (via Pakistan).

This 'tweak' actually makes Pakistan's growing ties with Turkey a lot more logical now. The US can use Turkey to funnel whatever Pakistan needs (esp. US-origin technologies). So, the T129, the LM2500-equipped MILGEMs, the GE-equipped TFX, etc, does make sense under this framework.

It'll be political suicide for any PM to agree to making the LOC a permanent border. China, under Xi, is likely to exert considerable pressure against such a move. I agree that a best case scenario would be Musharraf's four point plan.