Sure is a worrying picture. In a war of attrition, the advantage is always with the larger force. But, we must also consider that an Indo-Pak war will not be based on attrition. The next war is predicted to be sudden, quick, violent. Speed, flexibility and agility will be key players, and these are factors that always benefit the smaller unit. This most likely means that, in the next war, not every aircraft will see combat, particularly on the Indian side. Of course, the fact that we do not maintain a no-first-use policy on our nuclear arsenal will ensure an attrition war never develops.So let us see---SU 30---not as potent as F 22----current F 16's in Paf----same difference in proportion of capability---let me give paf the benefit of the doubt----let us reduce the numbers to half----let us say 10:1 in favour of SU 30's----10 pak F 16's lost to everyone of the SU 30's.
Sir----just to shoot down 10 su 30's----current paf would loose a 100 planes----if not a hunderd---then let us say 80 planes---which is about 30 % of paf inventory---all high end.
Sir----with 30 % total losses---of its aircraft---any air force gets to its death throes----they are finished----caput----gone. But then we only have 48 of the F 16's---now please remember I am not talking about the blk 52's or the MLU's. Even 5:1 in favour of SU 30's is a killer deal---man machine or anything else.
Now, that's just general talk. Let's get more specific. The IAF has a significant BVR advantage over the PAF. Both the Soviets and the Americans put great emphasis on BVR development late into the Cold War, along with other long-range detection and engagement technologies, and that development still continues. But, there is one very significant difference between those types of potential conflicts and ours. Pakistan and India are neighbors, our land meets.
According to aviation experts, including the air-combat author Mike Spick, capabilities like ob-board Beyond Visual Range detection, supercruise, loiter-time etc. lose much of their advantages in a scenario where the two opposing forces are close together. Other aspects, both real and abstract, such as rate of climb of interceptors, operational readiness, logistics etc. become that much more important. So, there is most definitely a silver lining. We still stand a good shot at nullifying their advantages in the air.
Again, if we consider close combat, Indian Thrust Vectoring Su-30MKIs will be formidable, and so will their Mig-29s. But in that scenario as well, we must consider that the F-16 still remains the greatest conventional dogfighter of all time. This certainly doesn't mean our F-16s will go looking for a fair one-on-one fight with the Su-30s, they will try to tip the scales as much as possible in their favour, potentially by "jumping" IAF aircraft once they've crossed into Pakistani airspace. Strategy comes into play, but again, the sky is not completely black.
See, I'm not trying to argue against your point, it remains valid. I also agree with it, to a very large degree. I am just trying to say that the situation is not as dire as you portray. There is still method behind the madness. Of course, in about half-a-decade, we'll have some tech at least comparable to what the Indians will have at the time, so much of our debate will become obsolete. As you've said, Block 52s are a need of the hour for us, a top-notch proven and reliable system that we're already very familiar with. 18 Block 52s will make a dent, but if the option is still viable, we should definitely go for the 18 more. But for the time being, things aren't ideal, but they could be worse.