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Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

Aamir Hussain

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I think a deal could be done on basing. If the US were to lease 2 bases Pak could in return demand release of CSF or ask for EDA. As it's Army involved in these negotiations I expect some quid pro quo is the bases do go ahead. No way would we let a foreign country operate out of Pak while the same foreign country denies us weapons systems. If the basing negotiations fail then expect US to try and come down hard on us.
Yasser (If that is your name) the game is no longer this simple. If this was the on the table, GoP would have played along easily. But to me, it seems, things are not so much in black and white anymore. Our neighbors in the east know how to bargain and if they are out destroy Pakistani inroads into export of Basmati rice, would they accept acquisition of war material and release of funds that can be used to acquire major US defense articles by Pakistan? I think not.

It is no longer possible for us get major defense articles from US in light of India's importance to US viz a viz China containment policy of US and its Allies in Indo-Pacific theater. India, in their scheme of things plays a pivotal role in a possible outbreak of hostilities. It is earmarked to act as a major staging area to launch counter operations if Taiwan is threatened in any way. Furthermore, between, India, Japan, and Korea all three nations are equipping themselves as blue water navies with air operations capability. All three nations are gearing up their Attack Helo Fleets and upgrading their armored forces. Not to speak of their air forces and heavy lift capability. The plan is to drain China economically and divert funding from major infrastructure initiatives like Belt and Road etc. towards military spend and take the game away from China.

So from where I sit, to me, it just ain't gonna happen!!!
 

GriffinsRule

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This was his message below:

A short answer to your question: The J-10s would likely be in the PAF by next 23 March flypast!

In some areas, the J-10 is better than F-16C Black 50/52. The radar is an AESA type, and the PL-15 makes it very lethal. Internal fuel of both is the same. I cannot say much about the sensors, etc.

@Blacklight

Note: I did ask him about Project AZM he completely avoided the topic and and asked him again honestly didn't show much interest in it or much enthusiasm.
So, in less than 9 months China will deliver J-10 to Pakistan? Generally it takes 3 years for the first aircraft to be delivered and that is pretty standard across the industry, including China.
I'd guess if there is a J-10 in the next Mar 23rd parade, it will be one from the PLAAF demo team. Lets see if your source proves right.
 

SQ8

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Yasser (If that is your name) the game is no longer this simple. If this was the on the table, GoP would have played along easily. But to me, it seems, things are not so much in black and white anymore. Our neighbors in the east know how to bargain and if they are out destroy Pakistani inroads into export of Basmati rice, would they accept acquisition of war material and release of funds that can be used to acquire major US defense articles by Pakistan? I think not.

It is no longer possible for us get major defense articles from US in light of India's importance to US viz a viz China containment policy of US and its Allies in Indo-Pacific theater. India, in their scheme of things plays a pivotal role in a possible outbreak of hostilities. It is earmarked to act as a major staging area to launch counter operations if Taiwan is threatened in any way. Furthermore, between, India, Japan, and Korea all three nations are equipping themselves as blue water navies with air operations capability. All three nations are gearing up their Attack Helo Fleets and upgrading their armored forces. Not to speak of their air forces and heavy lift capability. The plan is to drain China economically and divert funding from major infrastructure initiatives like Belt and Road etc. towards military spend and take the game away from China.

So from where I sit, to me, it just ain't gonna happen!!!
It is the exact same playbook thrown against the USSR - lets see if this communist nation takes the same bait.
 

Yasser76

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Yasser (If that is your name) the game is no longer this simple. If this was the on the table, GoP would have played along easily. But to me, it seems, things are not so much in black and white anymore. Our neighbors in the east know how to bargain and if they are out destroy Pakistani inroads into export of Basmati rice, would they accept acquisition of war material and release of funds that can be used to acquire major US defense articles by Pakistan? I think not.

It is no longer possible for us get major defense articles from US in light of India's importance to US viz a viz China containment policy of US and its Allies in Indo-Pacific theater. India, in their scheme of things plays a pivotal role in a possible outbreak of hostilities. It is earmarked to act as a major staging area to launch counter operations if Taiwan is threatened in any way. Furthermore, between, India, Japan, and Korea all three nations are equipping themselves as blue water navies with air operations capability. All three nations are gearing up their Attack Helo Fleets and upgrading their armored forces. Not to speak of their air forces and heavy lift capability. The plan is to drain China economically and divert funding from major infrastructure initiatives like Belt and Road etc. towards military spend and take the game away from China.

So from where I sit, to me, it just ain't gonna happen!!!

I think you really overestimate Indian capabilities, most observers in the US accepted Ladakh showed the world India is both incapable and unwlling to stand up too China. Also Indian might could not stop weapons sales to Pakistan from Sweden, Brazil, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Italy and Turkey.
 

Aamir Hussain

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I think you really overestimate Indian capabilities, most observers in the US accepted Ladakh showed the world India is both incapable and unwlling to stand up too China. Also Indian might could not stop weapons sales to Pakistan from Sweden, Brazil, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Italy and Turkey.
Buddy I am all in favor of getting high tech from US as it brings best of what is out there and the best training too. People here will not agree with me but that is the God's honest truth.

But I don't see it happening. Case in point is AH-1Z, engine export certification of Atak, transfer of further OHP's, F-16's, and other major Armaments. We will see transfer of expandable, support, spares and transfer and/or purchase of some pure defensive or non lethal items such as radars, trucks, etc but nothing beyond that.

I would be more than happy to be proven wrong. All the power to you buddy!!!
 

UKBengali

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Exactly.

But less likely to work with China.

Which is good.

The world is better off being multi polar.

Soviet Union spent 12-14% of its GDP on defence, whereas China is at a little less than 2% now.

If the Chinese felt the need they can massively upgrade their firepower by going to 3% of GDP which would hardly have any major impact on their civilian economy, however they can keep their current percentage and rely on economic growth that is likely to be faster than the US for some more decades to slowly close the gap.
 

Avicenna

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Soviet Union spent 12-14% of its GDP on defence, whereas China is at a little less than 2% now.

If the Chinese felt the need they can massively upgrade their firepower by going to 3% of GDP which would hardly have any major impact on their civilian economy, however they can keep their current percentage and rely on economic growth that is likely to be faster than the US for some more decades to slowly close the gap.
But even so, on an more abstract philosophical level, the Chinese play the long game well as opposed to the Soviets.

I am sure they are quite aware of history and will act accordingly.

Also, the communist/capitalism fusion that China has is a different situation to the USSR.

I for one hope there is balance in the world, meaning some degree of success to China's rise.

As it relates to more F-16s or other meaningful US hardware for Pakistan.

Extremely unlikely.
 

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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It is the exact same playbook thrown against the USSR - lets see if this communist nation takes the same bait.
There's once dark horse in China, but, ironically, the CPC is against letting it loose ...

It's democracy.

I'm not talking about human rights or political parties, but the real essence of democracy in the West, i.e., letting the capitalist elite run the show.

The CPC keeps China's private sector elite in check, but these guys (e.g., Jack Ma) understand the West inside and out. These guys are best equipped to maneuver China in ways that will make encirclement very difficult for the U.S. For starters, it allows China to solidify its ties with Western Europe (especially the UK), which would be huge from an economic and military technology standpoint.

It also ends Hong Kong and Taiwan as existential ideological issues.

The down side is that 'freedom' is a two-way street, so whatever flows out of China, then certainly, stuff will flow into China from the U.S. as well. Moreover, the old guard will have to share the pie with the new guard.
 

Avicenna

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There's once dark horse in China, but, ironically, the CPC is against letting it loose ...

It's democracy.

I'm not talking about human rights or political parties, but the real essence of democracy in the West, i.e., letting the capitalist elite run the show.

The CPC keeps China's private sector elite in check, but these guys (e.g., Jack Ma) understand the West inside and out. These guys are best equipped to maneuver China in ways that will make encirclement very difficult for the U.S. For starters, it allows China to solidify its ties with Western Europe (especially the UK), which would be huge from an economic and military technology standpoint.

It also ends Hong Kong and Taiwan as existential ideological issues.

The down side is that 'freedom' is a two-way street, so whatever flows out of China, then certainly, stuff will flow into China from the U.S. as well. Moreover, the old guard will have to share the pie with the new guard.
Glasnost didn't end up so well for USSR.
 

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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Glasnost didn't end up so well for USSR.
IMO that's not a 1:1 example.

Unlike the Soviet Union, China is already a thriving market-based economy. Yes, there are some central planning and state control mechanisms, but not too far from what Western Europe is doing.

China already has a consumer class and a growing number of big private sector market players (e.g., AliBaba, Tencent, etc). Even China's SOEs are capable of operating on their own with internally funded R&D programs.

Everyone in China knows what transparency and accountability look like (though they may choose to intentionally obscure it for one reason or another).

Moreover, there's nothing at stake in China except for political power and maybe top bureaucratic posts. However, those two domains are tied to the CPC.

The Chinese have every reason to stand with the CPC as the CPC was the one to bring them to their current position. It's up to the CPC to now decide whether it wants to defer to a new leadership, or evolve internally.
 

PakFactor

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IMO that's not a 1:1 example.

Unlike the Soviet Union, China is already a thriving market-based economy. Yes, there are some central planning and state control mechanisms, but not too far from what Western Europe is doing.

China already has a consumer class and a growing number of big private sector market players (e.g., AliBaba, Tencent, etc). Even China's SOEs are capable of operating on their own with internally funded R&D programs.

Basically, there's nothing to sell in China except for political power and maybe bureaucratic posts. However, those two domains are tied to the CPC.

The Chinese have every reason to stand with the CPC as the CPC was the one to bring them to their current position. It's up to the CPC to now decide whether it wants to defer to a new leadership, or evolve internally.
I'm a economist and business owner and have taught econ classes over the years in the US. While the typical average American hates Communism due to Cold War stigma. I've said over the years China is different they are what USSR always wanted to be but couldn't due to Cold War politics. China is a blend between Capitalism and Control Economics; and they've far exceeded many expectations.
 

Avicenna

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IMO that's not a 1:1 example.

Unlike the Soviet Union, China is already a thriving market-based economy. Yes, there are some central planning and state control mechanisms, but not too far from what Western Europe is doing.

China already has a consumer class and a growing number of big private sector market players (e.g., AliBaba, Tencent, etc). Even China's SOEs are capable of operating on their own with internally funded R&D programs.

Everyone in China knows what transparency and accountability look like (though they may choose to intentionally obscure it for one reason or another).

Moreover, there's nothing at stake in China except for political power and maybe top bureaucratic posts. However, those two domains are tied to the CPC.

The Chinese have every reason to stand with the CPC as the CPC was the one to bring them to their current position. It's up to the CPC to now decide whether it wants to defer to a new leadership, or evolve internally.
Very true.

However, opening the political door a little may allow others to break open that door with force.

This is playing with fire given the West's prowess with machinations.

Right now, it seems like whatever China is doing is working for them more or less.

So long as the Chinese population is fed, entertained, and reasonably happy, the Chinese leadership really has no reason to rock the boat.

Also Jack Ma disappearing for some time may foretell what direction Xi has in mind for the future.

In any case, this is getting too off topic so I will end my two cents here.
 

PakFactor

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Very true.

However, opening the political door a little may allow others to break open that door with force.

This is playing with fire given the West's prowess with machinations.

Right now, it seems like whatever China is doing is working for them more or less.

So long as the Chinese population is fed, entertained, and reasonably happy, the Chinese leadership really has no reason to rock the boat.

Also Jack Ma disappearing for some time may foretell what direction Xi has in mind for the future.
Not to forget China's economic weapon is it's population soon to be the biggest consumption economy in the world. Few years back that was demonstrated by the Kia/Hyundai scandal and how its trashed their market, the CEO came out apologizing.
 

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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I'm a economist and business owner and have taught econ classes over the years in the US. While the typical average American hates Communism due to Cold War stigma. I've said over the years China is different they are what USSR always wanted to be but couldn't due to Cold War politics. China is a blend between Capitalism and Control Economics; and they've far exceeded many expectations.
Yep ... China is a liberal market economy with a self-sustaining middle layer of bureaucracy and SOEs, and a centralized command leadership in the CPC. In terms of political economy, it's basically a pyramid.
 

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