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Pakistan conducts a successful test flight of indigenously developed Fatah-1, Guided Multi Launch Rocket System

KaiserX

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Because the probability of success with that is not only low, but also because the international blowback to something like that will be immense. Moreover, there is NO guarantee to your assertion that somehow by eliminating this leadership circle with a 100% success rate(impossible) will not invite some crazy on their end to retaliate with nuclear weapons.

Neither side has the ability to differentiate if a ballistic or cruise warhead is carrying a conventional or nuclear payload. However, India’s early warning is boosted with both their Green Pine systems and additional assets - if they see a few dozen ballistic missiles heading their way; like us they will assume those would be nuclear and will alert their forces to retaliate in kind.
Under what assumption? PAF jets violated Indian airspace and shot down there 2 jets and blew the hot air out of modis empty threats.

Did India at that time assume the jets were equipped with nukes? It is not as simple as it seems to deploy nukes to forward operating bases, get it through the proper chain of command, equip the nuke warhead to missile/bomb, etc... even the US/Russia do not have nukes on standby ready to launch any second. If this chain of command is disrupted then that will cause even more confusion/delay for the enemy.

Sure India has capable SAM systems/radars but they are not immune to low flying drones/cruise missiles. We have seen time and time again from Irans strikes on KSA to Azeri strikes on Armenia. Russian systems in particular have an issue with tracking objects less than 300M above ground and very susceptible to jamming something which the Israelis take advantage of almost daily in Syria (who has just as advanced systems as India covering much smaller airspace).
 

SQ8

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Under what assumption? PAF jets violated Indian airspace and shot down there 2 jets and blew the hot air out of modis empty threats.

Did India at that time assume the jets were equipped with nukes? It is not as simple as it seems to deploy nukes to forward operating bases, get it through the proper chain of command, equip the nuke warhead to missile/bomb, etc... even the US/Russia do not have nukes on standby ready to launch any second. If this chain of command is disrupted then that will cause even more confusion/delay for the enemy.

Sure India has capable SAM systems/radars but they are not immune to low flying drones/cruise missiles. We have seen time and time again from Irans strikes on KSA to Azeri strikes on Armenia. Russian systems in particular have an issue with tracking objects less than 300M above ground and very susceptible to jamming something which the Israelis take advantage of almost daily in Syria (who has just as advanced systems as India covering much smaller airspace).
You are equating Beetroots and Oranges - under what pretext would India assume those jets have nuclear weapons? Especially since they used the same a night before to violate Pakistani airspace - not to mention the hundred or so technical violations that occur yearly along the borders.

However, when they were known to be resorting to onyx strikes then we were going to respond with a Shaheen strike - that was really open to interpretation because if the Indians see Shaheen-1As popping out of a nuclear hardened shelter without context it is a vague escalation ladder to interpret anyway.

Your assertion that the US & Russia do not have nuclear weapons ready to launch any second is semantics on the “second” part but a hint to the response time is available below.
https://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/clinton-and-nuclear-launch-times/
These are nations which have 30 minute warning times available due to both distance and well placed EW systems.
Land based missiles in silos for both Russia & the US are “hot” and the warheads are mated. The same goes for Russian Topol series mobile systems in their distributed shelters. On the other hand, Pakistani and Indian warheads are normally not mated but the warning time is much less as well. Ten minutes for many critical targets. That means the clock for retaliation decision in barely a minute or so for the command authority in case the conditions already exist on the escalation ladder.

Sam systems arent the only factor, lets say you avoid all SAM systems in this hypothetical strike, what guarantees are there is that the weapon system is going to hit with a CEP and take out this leadership?
All this while, the assumption you have still not answered satisfactorily is an Indian leader seeing all these ballistic missiles and not assuming Pakistan is launching . Bravado on 27th and a limited intrusion with aircraft which is still a VERY conventional response understood by both sides. After all, Pakistan did not launch a nuke when the Balakot attack happened - but did send a stern message of things spiraling out of control when India brought in the Onyx.

If that Balakot strike was perchance aimed at some Pakistani leadership - what do you think the response would have been?
 

KaiserX

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You are equating Beetroots and Oranges - under what pretext would India assume those jets have nuclear weapons? Especially since they used the same a night before to violate Pakistani airspace - not to mention the hundred or so technical violations that occur yearly along the borders.

However, when they were known to be resorting to onyx strikes then we were going to respond with a Shaheen strike - that was really open to interpretation because if the Indians see Shaheen-1As popping out of a nuclear hardened shelter without context it is a vague escalation ladder to interpret anyway.

Your assertion that the US & Russia do not have nuclear weapons ready to launch any second is semantics on the “second” part but a hint to the response time is available below.
https://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/clinton-and-nuclear-launch-times/
These are nations which have 30 minute warning times available due to both distance and well placed EW systems.
Land based missiles in silos for both Russia & the US are “hot” and the warheads are mated. The same goes for Russian Topol series mobile systems in their distributed shelters. On the other hand, Pakistani and Indian warheads are normally not mated but the warning time is much less as well. Ten minutes for many critical targets. That means the clock for retaliation decision in barely a minute or so for the command authority in case the conditions already exist on the escalation ladder.

Sam systems arent the only factor, lets say you avoid all SAM systems in this hypothetical strike, what guarantees are there is that the weapon system is going to hit with a CEP and take out this leadership?
All this while, the assumption you have still not answered satisfactorily is an Indian leader seeing all these ballistic missiles and not assuming Pakistan is launching . Bravado on 27th and a limited intrusion with aircraft which is still a VERY conventional response understood by both sides. After all, Pakistan did not launch a nuke when the Balakot attack happened - but did send a stern message of things spiraling out of control when India brought in the Onyx.

If that Balakot strike was perchance aimed at some Pakistani leadership - what do you think the response would have been?
Your assumption that any missile Pakistan or India launch at one another will be equipped with nuclear warheads which is simply not true. Sure Pakistan has shaheen 1-As but the whole purpose of the 1A was to create a long range ballistic missile with a CEP of 20m (precise). The Pakistani military has stated multiple times that its missile force will be used in both conventional and nuclear means. Lastly Pakistan also dedicates a sizeable fleet of F-16s, JF-17s, and Mirages for nuclear delivery which India also knows very well.

Ballistic missiles move at such a trajectory/speed that they are still extremely difficult to detect. Sure during testing when dependencies are well known and documented it is alot easier to shoot down an object that you have launched and guided yourself with preplaced SAM systems but in the real world it is a lot more tricky when a ballistic missile can be launch from anywhere in Pakistan and reach India from anywhere in the north/west.

In conclusion from recent events we have seen in the last few years (primarily feb 2019) is that India is not willing to go beyond a certain limit in the escalation ladder. There is no way in hell the Indian military/political leadership would launch nukes at the site of ballistic missiles :D
 

SQ8

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Your assumption that any missile Pakistan or India launch at one another will be equipped with nuclear warheads which is simply not true. Sure Pakistan has shaheen 1-As but the whole purpose of the 1A was to create a long range ballistic missile with a CEP of 20m (precise). The Pakistani military has stated multiple times that its missile force will be used in both conventional and nuclear means. Lastly Pakistan also dedicates a sizeable fleet of F-16s, JF-17s, and Mirages for nuclear delivery which India also knows very well.

Ballistic missiles move at such a trajectory/speed that they are still extremely difficult to detect. Sure during testing when dependencies are well known and documented it is alot easier to shoot down an object that you have launched and guided yourself with preplaced SAM systems but in the real world it is a lot more tricky when a ballistic missile can be launch from anywhere in Pakistan and reach India from anywhere in the north/west.

In conclusion from recent events we have seen in the last few years (primarily feb 2019) is that India is not willing to go beyond a certain limit in the escalation ladder. There is no way in hell the Indian military/political leadership would launch nukes at the site of ballistic missiles :D
Ive already pointed out the inherent ambiguity with this in the last post and outlined what possible scenarios can be interpreted differently. It is highly subjective but the chances of a mass BM launch being interpreted as nuclear or critical versus an airstrike are much higher - Ill leave @Bratva @The Eagle @Signalian to correct me but with your arguments I will have to agree to disagree. BM’s and their launches are not difficult to detect provided the right equipment exists. Hence the move towards flatter trajectories.

As far as this goes, it would be absolute folly to assume any concrete conclusions about Indian leadership appetite - Op Gibraltar, Siachen and Kargil testify to it.
 

The Eagle

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It is highly subjective but the chances of a mass BM launch being interpreted as nuclear or critical versus an airstrike are much higher
Agreed Boss especially for India Pakistan scenario.... Will be too late or it is of no relevance but will be considered as N Attack. I don't see we are dialing on phone to inform each other for incoming BM whether being conventional or Nuclear. No one will risk a delay for findings from impact side. If I am not wrong, similar counter preparation was exercised on the night of 27th Feb as well and new Delhi was informed about the reply regardless of conventional or not. I see that new trajectories are results and fundings due to counter measures of previous approach...i.e. BM in common.
In conclusion from recent events we have seen in the last few years (primarily feb 2019) is that India is not willing to go beyond a certain limit in the escalation ladder. There is no way in hell the Indian military/political leadership would launch nukes at the site of ballistic missiles
I will disagree about Indian ambitions given the blood thirst and mongering or one may call it Pakistan phobia under Modi in India. The only thing which kept the escalation ladder with Pakistan, was the guaranteed mutual destruction to oblivion. We wouldn't check whether a simple missile or nuke, Pakistan will make sure that nothing remains of RSS at all. That's what kept them away from launching anything in Indian arsenal. What if I say that in fact, Langley also told them to not to test Waters as there will be nothing left for India to explain in UN or anyone left for propaganda against Pakistan.
 
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IceCold

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I will disagree about Indian ambitions given the blood thirst and mongering or one may call it Pakistan phobia under Modi in India. The only thing which kept the escalation ladder with Pakistan, was the guaranteed mutual destruction to oblivion. We wouldn't check whether a simple missile or nuke, Pakistan will make sure that nothing remains of RSS at all. That's what kept them away from launching anything in Indian arsenal. What if I say that in fact, Langley also told them to not to test Waters as there will be nothing left for India to explain in UN or anyone left for propaganda against Pakistan.
What if a massive first nuclear strike is carried out against a simple conventional attack when nobody is expecting such a scenario? Lets say when on 26th February India crossed and jettison their ordinance. From their own sources all they were expecting from Pakistan was to increase the heat on the border. So naturally their preparation to counter it was also within the domain of their expectation which was proven to be shitty in response to our raids.
So in a hypothetical scenario what if we would have struck them massively with a nuclear strike against their attack, hitting from their leadership to all military bases and nuclear stations. As pathetic as they proved out to be on a mere air raid, a devastating nuclear strike would have left them where?
 

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