PAKISTAN Closer to COLLAPSE as Cash & Fuel Run Out & National Electricity Blackout after Shutdown

[kris]

Time for Pakistan, and India, to work hard on a strong and real peace agreement.
As Egypt with Israel for exemple. They were hard opponents and now are living in peace, without love, but in peace and some respect.

India is now peaceful, what more can Pakistan offer?

 

[kris]

Logically there is no reason for India to go for a peace agreement, vocally it should tow the peace narrative but Pakistan is like a vulnerable old man - why should India not go in for the final kill against its primary adversary for decades when it's about to collapse?

Peace will only be vocally - India is in a very powerful position of strength and I don't think its government is feeling generous enough to not utilise this clear advantage

Pakistan is socially divided and weak, India claims Kashmir, going in aggressively in the background could make it quite possible to take Kashmir and maybe even other parts considering the social strife

Though in a position of strength, India won't exploit Pakistan's weakness and attack.
Not a worthy excercise.
We will get Kashmir in a diplomatic way

Our elite has a stash of cash sitting in their houses. Dar is looking at Dollar accounts of citizens. Watch out everyone .....IMF is coming after Pak elite personal accounts and real estate details....excellent news ...elite whos houses are spread over hundreds of acres...

Hai himmat?

 

[kris]

Who do you think the 'loan holders' are? Saudi/Dubai/ China?

No- many of these are bonds floated in markets, financial institutions, retail investors and stuff. Try telling Morgan Stanley they need to give a 'provision'. The only provision they have for defaulters is to break legs.

What else can they do??

There is still time. the establishment can still sideline this government and bring back Khan otherwise citizens will be on the roads. This is it. this is the time for a change. I feel there is still a week left. Appoint someone who can deal with other countries, especially India. We all see the real face of China now. People still think that China will help. china only wanted a bankrupt Pakistan. Talk to India.

Open the gates. Allow their trucks. let them trade with us and with Afghanistan. Necessary items can come within 2 to 3 days via the Indian border. Apologize to India for Mumbai and other attacks. Write a letter and send it to Pm Modi. initiate contacts now otherwise it will be too late. Jihadis can't save this country. Supporting jihadis was a mistake that caused a total collapse. Let's work hard, like a civilized society. With Indian assistance, Pakistan can regain lost money and the economy will become stable. We have so much to learn from Americans and Indians.

There are many Pakistanis who think of Indian assistance as a sign of humiliation. Great countries learn from mistakes. our youth should hold books and not guns. It's time to save the country. Matric pass, inter pass, can't save this country now. The corrupt elite has ruined us.

If they still feel humiliated then appoint me. I can make things work. Come on! someone should save my country. Are there any eligible candidates who can handle India diplomatically? I feel there are very few.

What's in it for India?? We always suffered by trying to have a relationship with Pakistan

Sovereign defaults are not like private defaults. There is no legal recourse. Remember the old adage: You borrow a million dollars from bank, the bank owns you. You borrow a billion dollars from bank then you own the bank. The only option they have is rollover or take a haircut. In the current situation, no reasonable analysis can conclude Pakistan can pay its external obligations even over a decade or more. This is a difficult time for lenders too.

Fair point.
Only thing that they can do is not give more loans.

 

[kris]

This is not about assistance. It's about trade with India which means being on equal footing.

However trade with India should not be conflated with the situation on hand. Pakistan will get through this with some reckoning which is needed and trade with India isn't necessarily a must have at this juncture (I am all for trade with all the neighbors) given Pakistan is in a position which can be taken advantage of.

We need to work with IMF, get on a program, implement and execute it fully, increase our own tax net, reduce imports and enhance exports. Tax the bloody hell out of all the bastards parking their money in real estate and get back on track.


Let's give this narrative of "all is lost" a break. Pakistan is on its feet and certainly not out. It may be financially strapped but there is no such a thing as a collapse.

Even if the "worst case scenario" happens, i.e. sovereign default, we have examples of other countries like Greece, SL, Argentina that have defaulted and carried on. Pakistan too will move on.

Pakistan does not have to make deals with India at this juncture. India cannot militarily take on Kashmir regardless of the social strife unless you believe our own Pakistanis will pick up the gun and work against our own national integrity in cahoots with India.

SL had backing of India and China. Argentina has been suffering with no backers.

Where will Pakistan fit?

 

[Conqueror]

Hold collars of Pak Army for they bringing and still backing PDM into power.

I wished I could curse this Army but I stopped, I didn't get consent from my conciousness.

 

[lightning F57]

Stop blaming our leaders. We, the people of India, will throw out anyone who tries to become lovey-dovey with the Pakistani state irrespective of which party is in power. Stop blaming our leaders, blame our people who choose their own leaders to lead them the way they want to.

my post had no blame in it you can hate your neighbour but still pursue peace.

But anyway doesnt matter as I said your butcher doesn't want it and likely Pak doesnt either.

 

[lightning F57]

We will get Kashmir in a diplomatic way

India will highly unlikely to get Pakistani or Chinese Kashmir diplomatically. The status quo will remain (LOC) and will eventually turn into an international border.

 

[kris]

India will highly unlikely to get Pakistani or Chinese Kashmir diplomatically. The status quo will remain (LOC) and will eventually turn into an international border.

India won't accept it.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

India will highly unlikely to get Pakistani or Chinese Kashmir diplomatically. The status quo will remain (LOC) and will eventually turn into an international border.

I said many times, it is a final solution.

But leaders of both the nation will not allow to accept it because of vote politics, other factors... They will keep taking the benefits by making emotional fool to own public.

 

[Ali_Baba]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621525126918307841

So he went to US without scheduling a meeting with SoS Blinken and just waits around outside his office? and all he got was meeting with someone 2 levels below.

@walterbibikow @INDIAPOSITIVE @Skull and Bones @epebble

And the junior diplomat does not look happy having to waste his time on this variant of a Zadari ..

 

[epebble]

Only thing that they can do is not give more loans.

Has already happened. Pakistan's biggest problems now and in the future, besides immediate cash needs:
1. Virtually no commercial loans for a long time. Only avenue will be IMF and bilateral like Saudi Arabia, UAE, China
2. Loss of business confidence. All the smaller exporters may demand advance payment before shipping to Pakistani importers
3. Loss of talent. 700,000 skilled workers left Pakistan in 2022. This will accelerate. In a few years, there won't be anyone to maintain a semblance of civilization like electricity grids, railroads, telecommunication infrastructure, water and wastewater systems etc., This is the situation Lebanon is in now. This is a dangerous place to be in. At this point, it not hard to descend down to Somalia or Sudan.

More Than 700,000 Pakistanis Left The Country in 2022; Many Were Highly Educated - The Friday Times - Naya Daur

Trends indicate a loss of general confidence in the country, because of difficult economic conditions and political uncertainty.

www.thefridaytimes.com

 

[datafreak]

Hold collars of Pak Army for they bringing and still backing PDM into power.

I wished I could curse this Army but I stopped, I didn't get consent from my conciousness.

This is not the current govt's problem, this is clearly something that only Imran Khan could have addresed as an emergency. By the time the new govt came situation was well beyond crisis point.

Has already happened. Pakistan's biggest problems now and in the future, besides immediate cash needs:
1. Virtually no commercial loans for a long time. Only avenue will be IMF and bilateral like Saudi Arabia, UAE, China
2. Loss of business confidence. All the smaller exporters may demand advance payment before shipping to Pakistani importers
3. Loss of talent. 700,000 skilled workers left Pakistan in 2022. This will accelerate. In a few years, there won't be anyone to maintain a semblance of civilization like electricity grids, railroads, telecommunication infrastructure, water and wastewater systems etc., This is the situation Lebanon is in now. This is a dangerous place to be in. At this point, it not hard to descend down to Somalia or Sudan.

More Than 700,000 Pakistanis Left The Country in 2022; Many Were Highly Educated - The Friday Times - Naya Daur

Trends indicate a loss of general confidence in the country, because of difficult economic conditions and political uncertainty.

www.thefridaytimes.com

I heard some news items that imports are now stopped. Exporters have quoted that PKR/ USD devaluation as a key reason and stopped extending any credit line.

 

[datafreak]

I said many times, it is a final solution.

But leaders of both the nation will not allow to accept it because of vote politics, other factors... They will keep taking the benefits by making emotional fool to own public.

no discussion on politics or diplomacy is going to help now. These are hypthetical solutions. Economic issues are deterioring by the hour. They will hit SL levels in a few days/weeks.

 

[Ssan]

Without exception, all of the past rulers have done the following two:

a) Keeping Kashmir status-quo, as has Imran Khan.

b) Denouncing, condemning Islamophobia - perhaps they did not go to the UN so I can credit IK with that, but on the ground nothing has changed and they all (NS and even Zardari) have spoken out about Islamophobia.

1) Economic indicators under IK were strong - Ok, but Pakistan had not taken a $30B hit under his tenure due to a once in a hundred years flood. We did not even take that kind of a hit during 3 years of Covid. Things that we experienced in Covid years (expensive oil etc.) continued into this year. We can say Ishaq Dari is a dunce but PTI went through 5 Ishaq Dars (not saying they were all dunces but imagine the impact to the policies/running of affairs within finance ministry).

2) Establishment did things because of external reasons including Ukraine among other things. As we say in the vernacular, pagal kuttay nay nahi kata tha establishment ko to push IK out of the office. We had a misaligned foreign policy and it was starting to hurt Pakistan. I am conflicted here because I do believe that it is not the job of the military to set policy and they need to mind their damn business in the cantonments but unfortunately this is not Pakistan's reality at least currently.

3) 100% agree on importing more than exporting. We were writing checks our bodies could not cash. Rest, I am not in disagreement with.

As always, I say my issue is not with IK or even his government. For good or bad, I could have lived with it and would have defended it just the same as I do any other Pakistani government for the sake of Pakistan. I just hope this poisonous bile against our own country and establishment cools down a bit because it is a path to nowhere.

Okay this is interesting-

I agree with what you have said more or less about the economy. Dar has destroyed the economy. And he is clearly completely incompetent. Don’t really think anyone disagrees with this at this point.

But this is not to say that Tareen for example was more than only semi competent- maybe only a bit better than Miftah. I’ll agree with that. The point is that having even a semi competent govt that has popular mandate is better than having a competent person put to the helm in a subverted process. For the long run growth of the institution.

The second thing is that building relations with other countries is a process. Let’s not kid ourselves that things were going hunky dory before IK. In fact, we have been losing our leverage in the Middle East for decades. The transition away from the west and towards China has also been ongoing for decades. The trip to Russia and the new tilt towards Russia has full establishment support- until it didn’t. So frankly, IK was doing the best he could with the resources he had. And your analysis underestimates the political capital that Pakistan could tap into with he overseas Pakistanis in the US that is now completely gone.

In the short run and the long run, no one should be in any doubt. Removing IK was stupid. It has backfired horrendously. Instead of course correction which was required immediately, the establishment put its foot down. Assassinated Arshad Sharif, tried to assassinate IK himself, and has dragged the country very close to default.

You are right that the 33$ bn is not an issue if we get access to revolving door of credit. We would have had it if PTI was still in power. We do not have it now because Dar was trying to control the rupee rate. To Miftahs credit, he had managed the situation and the rupee had settled at 220 or so. This extra 50-60 that the rupee has lost is entirely due to Dar fucking with the exchange rate. Why would the IMF trust a charlatan like him without extracting an extra pound of flesh for the bs he was pulling

 

[Ssan]

I think one thing that people need to understand is that apart from Islam and the nation, there are no holy cows.

IK is not a holy cow either. We can all criticize IK at our hearts desire. But this means that you must be open to hearing criticism directed against the army as well. The army is not a holy cow either.

PTI supporters like myself are very open to admitting where PTI was less than ideal. Where IK made mistakes. I highlighted those mistakes here on the forum then and now.

But give me a break. How can anyone turn away from the murder of Arshad Sharif, the attempted assassination of IK, how the subsequent JITs have been thwarted, etc? How can we still believe that the establishment is even semi-competent?