• Thursday, June 20, 2019

Pakistan-Afghanistan-China trilateral trade to boost economy, promote peace and stability

Discussion in 'Pakistan Economy' started by OsmanAli98, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. OsmanAli98

    OsmanAli98 SENIOR MEMBER

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    The recent conflicts in Afghanistan, and its stagnant economy has undermined the potential role it can play in the regional development. However, through economic cooperation and boosting regional trade, the neighbours of Afghanistan could inject vitality and stabilize its economy.

    Pakistan and Afghanistan are neighbours that besides sited on a long border also share many other commonalities including culture, language, religion, geography and history. Afghanistan is a landlocked country and Pakistan’s sea-ports provide it the cheapest and the shortest access to the markets of Africa and Middle-East.

    China is another important neighbour of Afghanistan, and it has invested immensely in its development. Over time, China has now become single-largest foreign investor gathering practical advantages in Afghanistan. In past eight years, it has granted USD 200 million to Kabul in the forms of foreign aid.

    Pakistan is the single largest export market for Afghanistan, while China is the second largest global economy with a desire for peace and stability in the region. The two countries plus Afghanistan can cooperate to promote trilateral trade which will result in win-win situation for all three nations.

    The bilateral trade potential between Pakistan and Afghanistan reaches USD 5 billion. In the beginning of 2018, Pak-Afghan bilateral trade was estimated to be USD 3 billion which decreased to USD 500 million in the first quarter of the same year. However, recent trends show an optimistic picture. According to a report released by the Embassy of Pakistan in Kabul on October 30, 2018, Afghanistan's exports to Pakistan increased by 29.53% from 2017-2018.

    For Afghanistan, Karachi port remains the most significant trade transit route. Its imports through Karachi port between 2017 and 2018 were worth USD 3.321 billion, which is a third of the country’s total import for that period. The Gwadar port which is being developed by China in Baluchistan province of Pakistan provides even closer and convenient outlet for Afghanistan. The three countries need to conclude an agreement for providing Afghanistan access to the world through Gwadar port which could reduce the transport cost and time.

    Once the problem of communication and connectivity is taken care of, the ministries of commerce and finance of the three countries can formulate an economic consultation group aimed to explore business and commercial opportunities among the three countries. China, being the largest market and biggest regional economy, can assist both Pakistan and Afghanistan, with later being the priority, with soft loans, flexible import tariffs, import quota and assistance in development of infrastructure projects.

    According to the statistics provided by the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Afghanistan is the 142nd largest export economy in the world with a plethora of products being offered such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, raw cotton and most importantly gold. Since 2011, Afghanistan's imports have increased by 17.5% in 2016. Gold has gained the position of the top commodity being exported by it which amounts to 20.3% (USD 243 million) of the country's total exports.

    Furthermore, Afghanistan is the 97th largest importer in the world with imports amounting up to USD 9 billion in year 2016 and its imports have decreased by the annualized rate of -7.4% in 2011 (USD 12.5 billion) to USD 9 billion in 2016.

    Through exports and imports of goods Afghanistan, together with China and Pakistan, all, can benefit substantially by fulfilling the requirements of each other. For example, broadcasting equipment, stone processing machines and other engines make up 13% of Afghanistan's total imports, while petroleum products make up 13.73% of the total imports. Furthermore, wheat and other products take up 10.19%, while defence related equipment is at 10.23% of its total imports.

    Pakistan can provide Afghanistan with export quality defence and other basic technological equipment as well as petroleum products that are imported in bulk by the latter. Moreover, due to its proficiency in producing agricultural products and military hardware it can fulfil the needs of Afghanistan in a cost-effective and efficient manner.

    China, on the other hand, is already carrying out projects related to mining and infrastructure development in Afghanistan. It can export heavy machinery used for mining and construction, electronic products, garments. In return it can import gems, precious stones, copper ore, gold and other minerals.

    Economic stability will entail prosperity in Afghanistan. There is no easy road to peace, but incremental steps will, eventually, help in bringing back peace and stability in the war-torn country. Therefore, enhance economic activity in Afghanistan, Pakistan and China can play a significance role in kick starting the otherwise stagnant Afghan economy, through increased trilateral trade and economic cooperation. Recent indicators relating to the trade between the three nations show an encouraging picture and it is high time that they capitalise on this vital opportunity for their respective national interests and for the greater good of the entire region.

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  2. Foxtrot Delta

    Foxtrot Delta SENIOR MEMBER

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    Since all 3 share land routes and direct borders it is very easy to acheive.
     
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  3. OsmanAli98

    OsmanAli98 SENIOR MEMBER

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    If I recall China sent in diplomats to the areas of the Wakhan Corridor to smooth out the process with the locals
     
  4. Foxtrot Delta

    Foxtrot Delta SENIOR MEMBER

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    If they take in tajikistan as well this could be very fruitful for all 4 countries. Tajikistan has direct available route with chinese xinjiang kashghar region as a complementary route to gilgit kashghar highway.
     
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  5. OsmanAli98

    OsmanAli98 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Isnt Southern Xinjiang filled with Tajiks and Pamiris mostly than Uighurs or Han,makes sense if China could use the locals in the South to smooth out the process in Wakhan region it will make those locals feel more comfortable in dealing with PRC
     
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  6. Foxtrot Delta

    Foxtrot Delta SENIOR MEMBER

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    Yes tajiks and gilgit balti people are also alot more in kashghar region. Things are smooth all of the groups want trade education and routes to chinese markets. Its not as big a chinese desire as it is for tajikis and afghans. Xinjiang is filled with afghan, tajik, kazakh and pakistani businessmen. Its a hub of central asia truely. It connects all the business between istans and russia china.
     
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  7. OsmanAli98

    OsmanAli98 SENIOR MEMBER

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    I hope to visit the region of Central Asian states in the near future, but I really wish the best for the Gilgit Region in prosperity
     
  8. Foxtrot Delta

    Foxtrot Delta SENIOR MEMBER

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    If people are sincere and try their best they can acheive it
    Im from azad kashmir people here are courpt and lazy as F. Things dont improve the way these people do things... Im glad other parts of pakistan especially KPK province is modern and forward thinking.

    Regarding central asia visit urumqi capital city of xinjiang . its the best city iv visited in central asia so far.
     
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  9. OsmanAli98

    OsmanAli98 SENIOR MEMBER

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    I am suprised that GB has high literacy rates and low rates of extreme thought despite being poorer and isolated than Punjab and KPK

    Regarding central asia visit urumqi capital city of xinjiang . its the best city iv visited in central asia so far.[/QUOTE]

    One of my close friends is from Urumqi originally his family is Uyghur but they are from Hotan and Kashagar he studies in the States and works here
     
  10. Foxtrot Delta

    Foxtrot Delta SENIOR MEMBER

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    One of my close friends is from Urumqi originally his family is Uyghur but they are from Hotan and Kashagar he studies in the States and works here[/QUOTE]

    I have cousins in hotain. These names we say are in urdu/persian/turkish mandarin has similar sounding chinese names for these cities.

    Gb's political system is very backward at the moment. Ajk is a bit better than GB in this regard but once pakistan officially takes in gb and ajk into its constitution as Kashmir 5th province of pakistan. I dont doubt leaderdhip of every institution in pakistan will have kashmiriz in them because of education.

    But scientific knowledge lacks here literacy is limited in that sense. Cuz we lack practical stuff punjab has.
     
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  11. Thəorətic Muslim

    Thəorətic Muslim SENIOR MEMBER

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    Kashmir & GB will be separate provinces of Pakistan.
     
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  12. Foxtrot Delta

    Foxtrot Delta SENIOR MEMBER

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    Ajk is too small. Unless the jammu valley comes too it doesnt make sense. But a smaller province is always more efgicient than a bigger one. What ever the law and ppl decide for better pakistan.
     
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  13. OsmanAli98

    OsmanAli98 SENIOR MEMBER

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    What about Autonoumous Region
     
  14. Foxtrot Delta

    Foxtrot Delta SENIOR MEMBER

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    Both of them already are autonomous. Gb less ajk more
     
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  15. Thəorətic Muslim

    Thəorətic Muslim SENIOR MEMBER

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    GB has made it clear they want to be considered as a separate entity from Kashmir. And even passed resolutions in their parliament.

    The population of GB is ~1.8? AJK is ~4.45?

    Literacy and civil participation have greater results of efficiency.
     
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