• Wednesday, July 24, 2019

On Eve Of 4th Of July Parade US Attempts To Lure Iran Into Shooting Down Another US Plane

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by Arminkh, Jul 10, 2019.

  1. Arminkh

    Arminkh SENIOR MEMBER

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    [​IMG]

    Today a manned US reconnaissance plane entered Iranian airspace in a clear attempt to provoke Iran into shooting it down. Such an incident would have created an occasion for Trump to give the American people a special 4th of July fireworks.

    On July 3 1988 the guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes shot down the civil Iranian Flight 655 with 290 people on board. The US claimed that the plane's transponder was signaling an Iranian military identification code, that it was seemingly attacking the Vincennes, that the ship warned the plane 12 times, and that the ship was in international waters when the incident happened.

    The crew of the Vincennes received medals for killing the Iranian civilians.

    Investigations showed (pdf) that all the above claims were false. The shoot down was intentional. Iran sued the US in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over it. The case was settled in 1996 when the US agreed to apologize and to pay $61.8 million to the families of the victims.

    On June 20 a large US reconnaissance drone, accompanied by a manned US military airplane, flew into Iranian air space east of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran shot the drone down. The US threatened to strike Iran over the incident but Trump did not follow through.

    There were reports that some people in the White House doubted that the US Central Command, the US military command for the Middle East, told it the full truth about the incident. Two days before the drone incident happened Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the former CIA director, had unusual talks with the US Central Command. This led to speculations that the incident was designed to provoke Iran into a shoot down and to push Trump into a war on Iran.

    The case today is not in doubt. The US military definitely tried to provoke Iran into shooting down another one of its planes.

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    Bigger

    The US Airforce RC-135V Rivet Joint are signal intelligence planes that snoop on other countries. The plane flew over the islands Abu Musa and Sirri in the Persian Gulf which are Iranian territory and Iranian airspace. It falsely signaled that it was an Iranian plane.

    The aviation transponder of the US spy plane was set to a code that is associated with Iran. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) defined (pdf) 24-bit addresses that identify the type of the plane and the country where a plane is registered . The 24 bit codes for Iranian registered airplanes begins with the country identifier 0111 0011, written in hexadecimal as 73. The flight radar page that Manu Gomez used displays these 'S-Mode' transponder codes the airplane sends as a six digit hexadecimal number.

    This use of code that identified the plane as Iranian was not a mistake but absolutely intentional:
    upload_2019-7-10_11-27-20.png

    The track shows that the plane was coming from west north west, probably Kuwait, and flew directly over Sirri Island and Abu Musa. It then immediately turned around and flew again over both islands.

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    Detail of the tweeted screenshot

    Sirri Island is the location of an oil platform that was destroyed by the US Navy forces on April 18, 1988. The island has a landing strip and there are several oil and gas installations on it.

    Abu Musa is a 12.8 square kilometer (4.9 sq mi) inhabited island near the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz. It is, like Sirri, Iranian territory and Iran has troops stationed there. They likely have decent air defense systems. Abu Musa is the Iranian 'castle' that controls the Strait and most traffic west of it. Its strategic importance is immense.

    After Iran shot down the US drone its foreign minister posted maps showing the flight path of the drone and the demarcation of the Iranian airspace (red line). It is obvious that the US plane today entered it.

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    Bigger

    This morning the US spy plane willingly penetrated Iranian airspace. It squawked a fake code which showed ill intention. This happened on the 31st anniversary of Flight 655. The Iranian military would certainly still like to take revenge for that mass murder. It was a huge provocation likely intended to lure Iran into shooting it down.

    Trump recently threatened to 'obliterate' some areas of Iran should it attack "anything American":

    upload_2019-7-10_11-28-8.png

    This led to speculation that Trump was threatening a nuclear strike.

    Had Iran shot the plane down it would have been clearly within its rights. But imagine it had done so. A manned US reconnaissance plane, not a drone, would have come down and the crew would be dead. US media would scream for revenge.

    It would have happened on the eve of Trump's 4th of July speech which will be followed by the military parade and overflight he ordered. 5,000 people from military families are invited to the event.

    An ideal TV situation to announce that the US Commander in Chief ordered a small nuke to be used to 'obliterate' Abu Musa island, the castle that controls the Strait of Hormuz. The US public would have loved those 4th of July fireworks. Newpapers would headline "The Commander In Chief Demonstrated His Resolve!" Trump's approval rating would soar to above 80%.

    It would take days until the information that the flight was an intended provocation would enter the news. US media would simply ignore it just as they ignored the evidence about Flight 655. No one in the US would care about it.

    One wonders who came up with this nefarious plan. Was it Trump, the great showman, himself? Was that the reason why he ordered the military 4th July parade on such a short notice? Or was it John Bolton or Mike Pompeo? Some minion at the CIA or CentCom?

    Whoever came up with it, and those who signed off to allow this incident to happen, will now be disappointed. Iran clearly did not fall into their trap.

    The world owns a big thank you to the Iranian air defense crews on Abu Musa for their disciplined behavior.

    Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
     
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  2. Arminkh

    Arminkh SENIOR MEMBER

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    Ok, things are a bit fishy here. As Steffan Watkins correctly points out, the US aircraft was using a fake and ridiculous code as 730000. It is as if I give you a phone number like 778 000 0000. The first impression for anyone is this is fake!

    So there is no way that Iran didn't know this is a foreign airplane that is impersonating an Iranian aircraft. The question is why did they let it fly twice over Iran's islands? These are possible answers:

    1- Iran didn't want to further escalate and thought there is nothing in those islands that US doesn't already know so they let it slide (I can't buy this myself)
    2- There is some kind of agreement behind the scene between Iran and US like the one US and Russian used to have. Iran lets US fly over Iran and inspect certain areas however since they don't want the public to know, US is using this fake code.
    3- Iran got scared by Trump's threat and decided not to shoot down the plane even though it was clearly violating its airspace.

    @PeeD , @mohsen , @AmirPatriot would appreciate your input
     
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  3. masterchief_mirza

    masterchief_mirza FULL MEMBER

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    OP has already answered your question. Iran is being smart and not falling into the trap. So far I am impressed by Iran's patience. It will need to find a way to deter such flights without shooting them down and provoking a response, which is what some in the USA want.
     
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  4. Arminkh

    Arminkh SENIOR MEMBER

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    Could be, but they could send a fighter jet to force it to leave. They don't necessarily need to shoot every single airplane that violate their airspace down.
     
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  5. masterchief_mirza

    masterchief_mirza FULL MEMBER

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    It's a proper game of chess. A lot doesn't add up though. Isn't it odd that the personnel on board a manned aircraft would willingly put themselves into the line of fire to create a cassus belli for USA after they get shot down?

    Unless of course this is a scenario where the crew were oblivious.

    Certain white house and Israeli hawks realised that Trump is still isolationist and non-interventionalist in overall outlook when he stalled after the drone incident. They are trying to engineer a loss of US lives as this would force Trump's hand.

    Iran's BEST approach is to totally ignore US incursions unless there is a severe imminent threat to assets or Iranian lives on the iranian mainland. By not even flying up there, they are refusing to engage in the game and refusing to draw attention to such incidents. I would suggest iran let lone aircraft of USA come into its airspace - such episodes don't alter the balance of power but unnecessary attention from interceptions could be adverse for Iran should something go wrong.

    Iran has happily played proxy war until now - why should it suddenly change that and try to boss USA conventionally?
     
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  6. Arminkh

    Arminkh SENIOR MEMBER

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    I agree with your first paragraph. All the more reason that item number 2 in my 2nd post may be the case.

    Problem with your suggestion is where is it going to stop? First they fly over islands, then they fly over mainland? These guys have shown they don't have any "self restraint" when it comes to meddling in other countries.
     
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  7. masterchief_mirza

    masterchief_mirza FULL MEMBER

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    True. In the long run, to preserve sovereignty, Iran will need some solid support from its only real major ally, Russia. Russia has to make clear that incursions onto Iranian mainland or airspace must stop and Russia will enforce this red line politically and militarily if necessary. That is the best chance Iran or indeed any non-superpower has of thwarting USA's gradual game of creeping military domination. How to secure such support is up to Iran, but as this game draws on longer, it will be Iran's only chance at retaining sovereignty over its airspace and waters. North Korea is the best example of how a smaller nation can keep USA military at bay with the backing of another superpower.

    Your item no. 2 is perhaps more plausible than i first thought but I am not sure the Israelis and Saudis would permit such a thing, as they have an existential problem with Iran, or at least with the current iranian regime.
     
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  8. nahtanbob

    nahtanbob BANNED

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    the SOP for dealing with foreign aircraft in peacetime is to send an aircraft to intercept it and to warn it and escort it out

    in times of peace air defense crews better be disciplined and not be trigger happy
     
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  9. Crystal-Clear

    Crystal-Clear SENIOR MEMBER

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    they are searching for excuse
     
  10. Arminkh

    Arminkh SENIOR MEMBER

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    In times of peace aircraft crew should not try to deceive the other side, although it was done pretty amateurish.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2019
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  11. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal FULL MEMBER

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    No Iran and US don’t have a treaty where they can fly over each other’s skies.

    Something you forget that for that to be true

    1) Treaty needs to be signed detailing the process and steps

    2) Aircraft needs to be inspected prior to flyover

    3) Iranian observer needs to be on that plane

    That’s how US/Russia works.

    So this reason is beyond ludacris.

    Also Beyond the Moon is not a credible source.

    It’s part of the gamesmanship between US and Iran.

    -Iranian drone nearly collided with a US fighter jet forcing it to take evasive action

    -Iranian boats get too close to US ships causing warning shots to be fired

    -Iranian drones fly over US carriers


    Stuff like the happens and doesn’t always get reported
     
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  12. Arminkh

    Arminkh SENIOR MEMBER

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    What do you mean by "Beyond the Moon" ? Do you mean Alabama Moon?

    Why do you look at the publisher? Look at the Flight Radar screen shot. It is real.

    I found the article here:

    http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/arc...ure-iran-into-shooting-down-another-us-plane/

    This is Ron Paul's institute of peace.
     
  13. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal FULL MEMBER

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    Another uncredible source.

    Rob Paul is a nut job and has become a doomsayers saying the world is ending. Even his son has distanced himself from him.

    Might as well post Debkafile while your at it.
     
  14. mohsen

    mohsen SENIOR MEMBER

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    Seems to be just a propaganda news for U.S to save face, "we are looking for excuses to attack you, be gentle to us", I would say f@ck off, we shot down your $300 million future-generation spy plane and you didn't dare to fire a bullet.
     
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  15. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal FULL MEMBER

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    No. You don’t just “hand over” nukes like it’s a casual thing. It has never been done before and a major breach of international law that would lead to Pakistan being sanctioned into the Stone Age.

    I wouldn’t expect Pakistan shias to join any war or at least not in credible numbers. The Pakistanis that went to Syria were simply volunteers and numbers were small.

    Now if Karabala is threatened that’s a different story.

    Iran has not seeked to establish a “Pakistani Hezbollah” in Pakistan because that could disrupt relations with Pakistan. But mostly Pakistan is to Iran’s east. There is no need to cover that flank as the US and it’s allies are not over there. Iran’s focus is the West and South (across the PG).

    In Afghanistan, Iran already has Northern Alliance as well as Iranian intelligence having contacts with Taliban, so if US and NATO bases need to be attacked they can be.
     
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