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October Surprise: my prediction for war

Feng Leng

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The surprise was there is no surprise.

Surprise!
The Pentagon surrendered the Western Pacific already:


Chinese and U.S. military chiefs held talks on crisis communication this week, amid heightened tensions between the two military superpowers this year in the South China Sea, with the United States denying a report on a possible drone attack.

According to Wu, Esper denied a media report about the United States studying a plan to attack Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea using an MQ-9 drone in the event that the U.S. presidential election was not looking favourable for President Donald Trump.

Esper said the United States “has no intention of creating a military crisis with the Chinese,” according to Wu.

“We urge the U.S. to walk the talk, keep its promise, and take measures to prevent provoking China military in the air and sea,” Wu said, adding that China will resolutely counter-strike if provoked with an attack at sea.
 

Wine&Steak

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The Pentagon surrendered the Western Pacific already:


Chinese and U.S. military chiefs held talks on crisis communication this week, amid heightened tensions between the two military superpowers this year in the South China Sea, with the United States denying a report on a possible drone attack.

According to Wu, Esper denied a media report about the United States studying a plan to attack Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea using an MQ-9 drone in the event that the U.S. presidential election was not looking favourable for President Donald Trump.

Esper said the United States “has no intention of creating a military crisis with the Chinese,” according to Wu.

“We urge the U.S. to walk the talk, keep its promise, and take measures to prevent provoking China military in the air and sea,” Wu said, adding that China will resolutely counter-strike if provoked with an attack at sea.

I knew it. You are right again. US lost the war & surrendered.

You should keep doing this prediction. You are too good at this. How about a November Surprise. I think you will outdo October one.
 

Feng Leng

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Trump cannot use China as a badge of honor before leaving: Global Times editorial


During US President Donald Trump's final 10 weeks in office, he may sanction or restrict trade with more Chinese companies, government entities and officials for alleged complicity in human rights violations, or threat to US national security, senior US administration officials "with direct knowledge of the plans" told Axios, an American news website. US National Security Council spokesperson John Ullyot told Axios that "future US presidents will find it politically suicidal to reverse Trump's historic actions."

If the Axios' report is to be believed, then there may be two major goals behind the Trump administration's "final madness" against China. First, Trump may want to reduce the room for Joe Biden to improve relations with China, so as to consolidate the Republican Party's strategic containment against China. The shift in China policy is the Trump administration's biggest "diplomatic legacy," and they want to prevent a rebound in the China policy after they leave the office.

Second, the Trump administration may want to prepare for the 2024 presidential election. If the Biden administration follows the current path in terms of the China policy, then they will have to put more effort into China-US confrontation. It would be hard for them to focus on the COVID-19 fight, climate change and other issues that the Democratic Party attaches importance to. The new administration will continue to live in the shadow of "Trumpism." Even if Biden makes technical adjustments to its China policy, the Republican Party can also criticize his "being weak" to China and stir up trouble in the 2022 midterm election and the 2024 presidential election.

According to US media reports and other analyses, the Trump administration is most likely to create controllable conflicts that are often reported to the public, so as to reflect their tough attitude toward China. For example, Washington is good at finding fault on human right issues. Politicians, including US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, may utter more ruthless and extreme words to China. Last week, Pompeo said that "Taiwan has not been a part of China," which has broken the bottom line.

But such moves have seen a decrease in the actual impact on China due to their high frequency. China is prepared for the risks of the post-election transition of the US government. Whatever Washington does will not be an unprepared encounter for Beijing.

The Trump administration's new attacks on China will have a weaker international impact than it did before the election, as the world already knows that the end of the Trump administration is irreversible, and it intends to make such disruptions before leaving. For these intentional playacting provocations, Beijing can just ignore them. But for those attacks that might cause real harm, China will resolutely beat back and leave them in the lurch.

The Trump administration is at its weakest no matter how tough they appear to be. The world knows that the Trump administration is going to make a mess and its support has hit its lowest level at home and abroad. Surely, we won't provoke them or kick them when they are down. But there's no reason to be afraid of their "final madness."

Despite reports in the US media that the Trump administration is not going to make major moves in the Taiwan Straits in the last 10 weeks, China still needs to be cautious.

The Chinese mainland has the most adequate preparation in the Taiwan Straits, and if the US and Taiwan collude to make a sudden and unacceptable move, the Chinese mainland will firmly hit back and make them lose completely.

The US is a real tiger on the global stage, but when it comes close to China's coastal waters and touches China's core interests, it becomes a paper tiger. With just over two months left for the Trump administration, any attempt to flex its muscle or flaunt will receive embarrassment and humiliation. China is not a badge of honor for the US political elite to daub.
 

Feng Leng

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China fully prepared, including militarily, for any final Trump madness


The Donald Trump administration is utilizing its last 40 days in office to keep provoking China. Some Chinese people think it is not worthwhile to wrangle with the team now and suggest it is better to be tolerant of it. Such a strategy is dangerous. Once they believe we will exercise patience no matter what happens, they will definitely become insatiable and more unscrupulous. They will carry out moves that will severely jeopardize China's national interests, setting up a demonstration and even kidnapping the future agenda of the incoming Joe Biden administration.

We must resolutely combat the arrogance of Trump's team at every turn. If they make vicious moves that cross the bottom line, we should be fearless to engage in a high-intensity confrontation.

There have been various speculations that Trump administration may make big moves during its last days in the White House. This could include sending Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to visit the island of Taiwan for further rabble rousing. Some say Trump may even make a flash visit to the island himself, and announce the establishment of "diplomatic relations" with the island. If so, China's response must be a devastating punch to the Democratic Progressive Party's authorities who have been coordinating with Trump administration, to hold their feet to the fire.

China's mildest option should be to send warplanes to fly over the Taiwan island. They could decide whether to fly at ultra-low altitudes across Taipei, based on the severity of the situation, to declare China's sovereignty. That would be a heavy blow to the arrogance of the US and the island.

We should have full confidence that the whole world can see how the Trump administration is undermining the China-US relations in an unprecedented and anti-rule based manner. It is clear that the Trump team, despite all its insanity, is at its most vulnerable and least supportive moment before it leaves office. It is attempting to set a hard line against China for the next president. Moreover, it is a calculated move to dominate the national strategy of the US across their tenure, and a serious disruption of the normal transfer of power.

Everyone in the international community knows that the Trump administration is now provoking China. A visit by Pompeo or by one at more senior level would be a gross violation of the one-China principle. This is by no means acceptable to Beijing. The whole world knows how China will react — any strong response will be understandable.

Therefore, we are not afraid of serious crisis in the Taiwan Straits at this time. Let our aircraft fly over the island. Our legitimacy of counterattacking US-Taiwan's line-breaking provocation will have a moral high ground. The so-called Taiwan military doesn't have the guts to open fire at the PLA. They are fully aware that if they open fire, it will mark the start of war. Our military will immediately inflict devastating blows on the Taiwan military airfield and other important military facilities.

The Chinese army is fully prepared for military conflict scenarios. And it will win the support of the whole country. Morale in Taiwan will quickly collapse. It is apparent to all that Trump's erratic moves are only being done for self-interest and ambition of a small circle. These wild antics are not supported by the majority of American citizens. China is bound to win the conflict and the Trump administration will leave office disgracefully.

We need to keep calm. The current bad state of China-US relations is not what the Chinese side wants to see. However, sudden misfortunes cannot be avoided. We need to calmly face the waves stirred up by the Trump administration in its final stage of madness.

China is a nuclear and space power. We have ample combat capabilities near the first island chain and strong anti-access capabilities. If the Trump administration wants to stage a farewell show at the Taiwan Straits, they will bring disgrace on their own head. By winning this battle, China will establish new dignity.
 

Menthol

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Can we have Season 2. It was entertaining.
There will be instability in USA.

Because of great unhappiness and dissatisfaction over the economic rivalry between USA and China.


Biden will not long, so does the next president, after and after.

Whoever becomes president of USA, should do bad things to China, to make real damages.

If destroying China can't be done by destroying it from outside, USA will destroy it from inside.


But still, the rivalry will make the rest of the world in constant fear over the possibility of the great war between USA and China.

Threatening to launch a nuclear war will be very common, and multiple times almost happened.


This is the war between logic (China) vs emotion (extremist USA + allies).

Extremists like Al Qaeda and ISIS will be nothing compared with Whites extremists.
 

Markandeya

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There will be instability in USA.

Because of great unhappiness and dissatisfaction over the economic rivalry between USA and China.


Biden will not long, so does the next president, after and after.

Whoever becomes president of USA, should do bad things to China, to make real damages.

If destroying China can't be done by destroying it from outside, USA will destroy it from inside.


But still, the rivalry will make the rest of the world in constant fear over the possibility of the great war between USA and China.

Threatening to launch a nuclear war will be very common, and multiple times almost happened.


This is the war between logic (China) vs emotion (extremist USA + allies).

Extremists like Al Qaeda and ISIS will be nothing compared with Whites extremists.
Your assumption is a democracy will be more decisive as compared to Dictators like Hitler, Stalin, ,Mao, Polpot, Jin Ping?

A leader in a democracy has checks and balances, oppositions , free media etc as compared to a country like China, North Korea etc.
 

ILC

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DF-21D and DF-26 successfully hitting moving ships, not long time ago suggest that tensions had been big. It may have prevented bigger things from escalation. Tensions surely had been big behind the closed doors.
 

Menthol

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Your assumption is a democracy will be more decisive as compared to Dictators like Hitler, Stalin, ,Mao, Polpot, Jin Ping?

A leader in a democracy has checks and balances, oppositions , free media etc as compared to a country like China, North Korea etc.
Democracy is populism.

And the base of populism is emotion.


Just look at democracy around the world, it's broken.

Money politics reigns, manipulation is everywhere.

Politicians are playing with emotion today because it's easier to gain followers and running away from mistakes.


To be honest, if you learn history, aren't many dictators raising thru power by populism?
 

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