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'Nuclear': Grim prediction for what war with China would look like

Feng Leng

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Australia's escalating rift with China could see the hypothetical prospect of war swiftly become a reality if the government doesn't urgently rethink its approach, according to a leading expert on Australia's strategic defence.

Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions with China.

Officials in the Morrison government have increasingly warned of war. Such a prospect could prove nuclear, Prof White warned.

"Now our government has begun, with disconcerting nonchalance, to talk of war," he wrote in The Saturday Paper.

"And yet our government seems to have no idea how serious, and dangerous, our situation has become, and has no viable plan to fix it. This must count as one of the biggest failures of statecraft in Australia’s history."

Prof White is a former deputy secretary of the Department of Defence, wrote Australia's Defence White Paper 2000 and is the author of How to Defend Australia. Few people have given more thought to the defence of Australia in the modern world.

On the current trajectory, he believes China's growing power and assertiveness could force opposing regions into "the biggest war the world has seen since 1945", putting Australia in an unwinnable position.

"It would be a war the US and its allies would have no clear chance of winning. Indeed, it is not even clear what winning a war with a country such as China means. And it would very likely become a nuclear war," he wrote.

Recent reports from the government saying Australia's troops should be ready for a military conflict suggest Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Defence Minister Peter Dutton are prepared to go to war with China, Prof White noted.

He urged against any notion of heated conflict and implored the Federal Government to rethink its relationship with China from the ground up.

China's inevitable rise needs to be accepted, combined with "a new order in Asia" which includes the rise of India and Indonesia.

"Australia must conceive a new relationship with China, one that takes account of this reality and works to balance and protect the full range of our interests ... this would require hard work, deep thought and subtle execution. It would mean a revolution in our foreign policy."

Collapse in relations will have long-term consequences

While Mr Morrison has so far been successful in downplaying the economic consequences of Australia's trade tension with China, he can only get away with this approach for so long.

Record iron ore prices have offset earnings lost from an array of Australian commodities China has blocked in recent months.

Beijing on Thursday pulled the plug on the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue framework.

In suspending the arrangement, China described Australia as exhibiting a "Cold War mindset" and accused the Government of "ideological discrimination".

The provocation could dampen Australia's economic prospects in coming years as China reacted angrily to the Federal Government cancelling Chinese investments in Australia.

"We will be a much poorer country as a result" of the souring economic ties, Prof White said.

"But this economic loss is trivial compared with the strategic costs and risks that we run by advocating a policy of containment against China."

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If we launch multi-megaton strikes on Australian population centers, will that trigger a nuclear summer instead of a nuclear winter?
 

Reashot Xigwin

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LOL:

TNI sees security engagement with China as less of a value-for-time proposition than similar
engagement with the United States. According to U.S. and Indonesian military officials, TNI
sees the United States as more transparent and more reliable than China. TNI buys Chinese gear
that is inferior to U.S. equipment mainly because it is less expensive,
179
but the pervasive
corruption of Chinese arms sales results in far less effectiveness than a more transparent system.
China is seen as providing poor maintenance and sustainment, if any at all. When Indonesian
officers go to China for military education (according to a U.S. official in Jakarta), the language
of instruction is English, and the students are segregated from their Chinese counterparts.
180
“China’s military exchanges are just optics,” said an official from Indonesia’s Ministry of
Defense. “They don’t care about building capability, which is what we care about. We don’t like
to spend our money to pay for courses in China, when we end up gaining nothing from them.”
181
 

Beast

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LOL:



Another fake report from western. You post this pink just to suit your agenda.. TNI may think that but Joko widodo called the shot. He already address neutral between China and US is the best.

Australia's escalating rift with China could see the hypothetical prospect of war swiftly become a reality if the government doesn't urgently rethink its approach, according to a leading expert on Australia's strategic defence.

Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions with China.

Officials in the Morrison government have increasingly warned of war. Such a prospect could prove nuclear, Prof White warned.

"Now our government has begun, with disconcerting nonchalance, to talk of war," he wrote in The Saturday Paper.

"And yet our government seems to have no idea how serious, and dangerous, our situation has become, and has no viable plan to fix it. This must count as one of the biggest failures of statecraft in Australia’s history."

Prof White is a former deputy secretary of the Department of Defence, wrote Australia's Defence White Paper 2000 and is the author of How to Defend Australia. Few people have given more thought to the defence of Australia in the modern world.

On the current trajectory, he believes China's growing power and assertiveness could force opposing regions into "the biggest war the world has seen since 1945", putting Australia in an unwinnable position.

"It would be a war the US and its allies would have no clear chance of winning. Indeed, it is not even clear what winning a war with a country such as China means. And it would very likely become a nuclear war," he wrote.

Recent reports from the government saying Australia's troops should be ready for a military conflict suggest Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Defence Minister Peter Dutton are prepared to go to war with China, Prof White noted.

He urged against any notion of heated conflict and implored the Federal Government to rethink its relationship with China from the ground up.

China's inevitable rise needs to be accepted, combined with "a new order in Asia" which includes the rise of India and Indonesia.

"Australia must conceive a new relationship with China, one that takes account of this reality and works to balance and protect the full range of our interests ... this would require hard work, deep thought and subtle execution. It would mean a revolution in our foreign policy."

Collapse in relations will have long-term consequences

While Mr Morrison has so far been successful in downplaying the economic consequences of Australia's trade tension with China, he can only get away with this approach for so long.

Record iron ore prices have offset earnings lost from an array of Australian commodities China has blocked in recent months.

Beijing on Thursday pulled the plug on the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue framework.

In suspending the arrangement, China described Australia as exhibiting a "Cold War mindset" and accused the Government of "ideological discrimination".

The provocation could dampen Australia's economic prospects in coming years as China reacted angrily to the Federal Government cancelling Chinese investments in Australia.

"We will be a much poorer country as a result" of the souring economic ties, Prof White said.

"But this economic loss is trivial compared with the strategic costs and risks that we run by advocating a policy of containment against China."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If we launch multi-megaton strikes on Australian population centers, will that trigger a nuclear summer instead of a nuclear winter?
Surprise this report came from Australia. End of the day, some cool headed Australia do have common sense. They know a war with China is not something they can afford and there is no guarantee US will involved if Australia is the one who fire the first shot.
 

Feng Leng

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Surprise this report came from Australia. End of the day, some cool headed Australia do have common sense. They know a war with China is not something they can afford and there is no guarantee US will involved if Australia is the one who fire the first shot.
The author Hugh White is in the smallest of minorities. There is little chance that any Western country will refrain from anti-China activities before some of their blood is spilled. After some of their blood is spilled then it is a whole new ballgame.
 

Reashot Xigwin

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Another fake report from western. You post this pink just to suit your agenda.. TNI may think that but Joko widodo called the shot. He already address neutral between China and US is the best.

Surprise this report came from Australia. End of the day, some cool headed Australia do have common sense. They know a war with China is not something they can afford and there is no guarantee US will involved if Australia is the one who fire the first shot.
NEUTRALITY does not mean letting china do whatever they want. Also the military helps shapes foreign policy & with the military saying that China is a likely future adversary no matter who the president is he/she will have to take military position into account. Even our strategic aligning with the FPDA countries, Japan, France, US & Australia is in preparation for a conflict with China.

& Jokowi has proven he will go tough against China to protect the country's interest.

Right now China has no friends in the region & slowly being encircled by potential enemies.
 

redtom

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Australia's escalating rift with China could see the hypothetical prospect of war swiftly become a reality if the government doesn't urgently rethink its approach, according to a leading expert on Australia's strategic defence.

Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions with China.

Officials in the Morrison government have increasingly warned of war. Such a prospect could prove nuclear, Prof White warned.

"Now our government has begun, with disconcerting nonchalance, to talk of war," he wrote in The Saturday Paper.

"And yet our government seems to have no idea how serious, and dangerous, our situation has become, and has no viable plan to fix it. This must count as one of the biggest failures of statecraft in Australia’s history."

Prof White is a former deputy secretary of the Department of Defence, wrote Australia's Defence White Paper 2000 and is the author of How to Defend Australia. Few people have given more thought to the defence of Australia in the modern world.

On the current trajectory, he believes China's growing power and assertiveness could force opposing regions into "the biggest war the world has seen since 1945", putting Australia in an unwinnable position.

"It would be a war the US and its allies would have no clear chance of winning. Indeed, it is not even clear what winning a war with a country such as China means. And it would very likely become a nuclear war," he wrote.

Recent reports from the government saying Australia's troops should be ready for a military conflict suggest Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Defence Minister Peter Dutton are prepared to go to war with China, Prof White noted.

He urged against any notion of heated conflict and implored the Federal Government to rethink its relationship with China from the ground up.

China's inevitable rise needs to be accepted, combined with "a new order in Asia" which includes the rise of India and Indonesia.

"Australia must conceive a new relationship with China, one that takes account of this reality and works to balance and protect the full range of our interests ... this would require hard work, deep thought and subtle execution. It would mean a revolution in our foreign policy."

Collapse in relations will have long-term consequences

While Mr Morrison has so far been successful in downplaying the economic consequences of Australia's trade tension with China, he can only get away with this approach for so long.

Record iron ore prices have offset earnings lost from an array of Australian commodities China has blocked in recent months.

Beijing on Thursday pulled the plug on the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue framework.

In suspending the arrangement, China described Australia as exhibiting a "Cold War mindset" and accused the Government of "ideological discrimination".

The provocation could dampen Australia's economic prospects in coming years as China reacted angrily to the Federal Government cancelling Chinese investments in Australia.

"We will be a much poorer country as a result" of the souring economic ties, Prof White said.

"But this economic loss is trivial compared with the strategic costs and risks that we run by advocating a policy of containment against China."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If we launch multi-megaton strikes on Australian population centers, will that trigger a nuclear summer instead of a nuclear winter?
Do Australians think that China cannot defeat them with conventional weapons?

Do Australians think that American billionaires will give up their luxurious lives in order to throw nuclear bombs with China?

I found that many people think that Americans are willing to die for them.They seem to think of themselves as oil. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
 

Reashot Xigwin

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If Australia fight war with China near Taiwan their LHD be sunk.
Australia white paper stated that the one stategy that the Australia can use includes blocking the Malacca straits even the deployment of mine layer.

Australia can provide ground support like they did in Iraq & afghanistan, but from what I can surmise by reading through ADF papers their navy will most serves in a limited & auxiliary role.
 

Tai Hai Chen

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Australia white paper stated that the one stategy that the Australia can use includes blocking the Malacca straits even the deployment of mine layer.

Australia can provide ground support like they did in Iraq & afghanistan, but from what I can surmise by reading through ADF papers their navy will most serves in a limited & auxiliary role.
Malacca strait is within range of H-6K/N bombers at Hainan island and Woody island.

 

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