• Thursday, November 21, 2019

Nuclear Detonation, A mistake?

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by sigatoka, Oct 29, 2005.

  1. Neo

    Neo RETIRED

    New Recruit

    Messages:
    18
    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2005
    Ratings:
    +0 / 3,929 / -0
    Webby,
    Our economy was already in turmoil due mismanagement and curruption and Pakistan was once again under full military embargo from US.
    So refraining from nuclear tests would have made no positive impact on our economy.

    Imho security matteres should not be discussed as only the government knows whats best in national interst.

    There is no such thing as good timing when it comes to going nuclear. I mean back in 1984 during the midst of Afghan crisis, we could have detonated the bomb but it would have angered US and halted military aid. Again in 1987 when tensions were high between India and Pakistan we could have detonated resulting in further isolation.
    The only correct time window to get away with it was to follow India within days which we did.
    Like I already said, we were under US arms embargo due Pressler amandement and economic growth was at all time low so there's no way we could have gaind by not going nuclear.
    I'm glad we finally took action and demonstrated our ability rather then wait for another decade. By then India would have gained international recognition for its nuclear program leaving us in the cold.
    Our economy has started to grow strong, in ten years we'll be among frontline Asian tigers.immagine what would happen to our economy then if we test our capabilites...
     
  2. EagleEyes

    EagleEyes PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

    Messages:
    16,778
    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2005
    Ratings:
    +25 / 15,613 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    United States
    Neo its only a luck that War on Terror have started. Why dont you imagine what would happen if there was no War on Terror, Pakistan would be in a very bad shape, the only support we were getting was Chinese. Forget about shaping our armed forces. Pakistan would have either forced to close its nuclear program or it would take a lot of time until it would have survived, not to mention the scandal of Khan that would have given an advantage to United States to even hit us more hard with sanctions or possible threats of air strikes.

    Its just lucky that we agreed with U.S just after the 9/11 attack to go on the war on terrorism.
     
  3. sigatoka

    sigatoka SENIOR MEMBER

    Messages:
    1,013
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2005
    Ratings:
    +0 / 29 / -0
    Neo, you confuse being a nuclear power with the act of detonating a nuclear bomb. I strongly believe that there is a difference and Pakistan could have exploited this difference to its advantage in the same way that Israel has.

    Israel is a nuclear power but not a "declared nuclear power". How does a nation being a Declared Nuclear power? It does so by detonating a nuclear bomb or by officially declaring it is a nuclear power.

    You claim that India's economy has not suffered from detonation and the economic sanctions that followed because its economy grew at 5%. Could you please give a link showing the growth rates of India immediately after its nuclear detonation. Even if I assume that 5% growth is correct; the question is not how much India did grow but how much more growth it would have experienced without Nuclear detonation.

    Secondly because you claim that Indias economy did not suffer from Nuclear by extension you attempt to create the impression that Pakistan also wouldnt suffer from nuclear detonation. It is a fact that smaller nations are more dependant on trade for prosperity than very large nations. This is because prosperity in the modern world depends on nations specialising and exporting in areas where it is superior and importing in areas of weakness. Very large nations like the U.S. are able to specialise in many areas from Agriculture to Car to Chemicals and every thing in between. Smaller nations like Singapore are forced to make difficult choices on what to specialise. If U.S. and Singpore both nations with similar levels of per capita income were forced to a position of zero international trade the economy of Singapore would totally collapse while U.S. would be slightly poorer but would still do ok. Therefore whatever negative impacts there were on the Indian economy of sanctions; the negative impacts on the Pakistani would be magnified because of its smaller size.

    Thirdly you claim that because Pakistan's program was uranium enrichment and not Plutonium, there couldnt be accurate cold simulations. Could you elaborate on why this is so?

    To the fourth point, Uncertain Retaliation. This means that Pak. should not tie down its nuclear strategy to well defined trigger points. This means Pak. should never committ to No first use policy. It should not committ itself to using Nukes only when Pakistan is split in two by an armoured thrust by India. India while having some idea on what would trigger nuclear war must still be left guessing under what specific situation Pakistan would initiate nuclear exchange. Why is a trigger happy situation a desirable nuclear strategy?? Because it constrains Indias option in deploying conventional forces and more importantly prevents situations from developing into a situation where nuclear exchange does occurr.

    In the Fifth point you claim that the Government always knows best in relation to security issues. I strongly disagree, if it did always know best why was Pakistan ripped apart in two in 1971?? Just because the government decided to detonate doesnt make it the right decision.

    To the last point you claim there is no correct time to detonate nuclear weapon because any time is a bad time. I strongly disagree with this point. Lets go to the beginning, after the Manhattan project the U.S. detonated the nuclear bomb in the desert. Japan didnt immediately find out about it. The U.S. then proceeded to Barbeque a few hundred thousand people in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Being the first nation to become a nuclear power; detonation of Nuclear weapons had no negative effects. It had positive effects because U.S. scientists were sure it would do its job.

    When Pakistan detonated its nuclear warheads, lots of nations with the use of satellits found out about it and Pakistan also declared itself a nuclear power. Secondly I find it unbelievable that Pakistani nuclear scientists needed to detonate the nuclear warheads to know it worked. Nuclear technology is over 50 years old and had the first nuclear powers not been so aggressive in nuclear proliferation, every nation and its dog would have had a nuclear weapon. What I mean to say is that Pakistani scientists would have assured the political leadership that the warheads did work without the need for detonation and therefore the act of detonation was a political statement and NOT a scientific one.

    Pakistan did have an ideal time to detonate its nuclear weapons. The ideal time would have been in a nuclear exchange between India and the targets would be Delhi, New Delhi, Bombay and Bangalore. And if by some freaky bad luck Pakistan's launched warheads didnt work there would have been no need to worry because all Pakistanis would be dead. The reason we worry about whether our warheads work is not because we feel sadistic and want to kill Indians; it is to make sure that Indians believe it does and so prevent them from launching their Nukes. Also with Nuclear weapons Pakistan can extract conventional warfare advantages by preventing all the elite Indian armoured units bunching up together for a thrust into Pakistan.
     
  4. Neo

    Neo RETIRED

    New Recruit

    Messages:
    18
    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2005
    Ratings:
    +0 / 3,929 / -0
    :reading:
    Disagreed!
    We have come in the open with our nuclear capabilities. Any western nation who desires good relationships with us will have to accept us as a nuclear power.
    The ongoing saga of on-and-off weaponembargoe and economic sanctions finally comes to an end!

    Israel is a different case and has full backing by US.
    We never had that advantage.

    Download this as an Excel spreadsheet


    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003

    GDP per head ($ at PPP) 2,360 2,500 2,620 2,830
    GDP (% real change pa) 3.95 5.14 4.59 8.10
    Government consumption (% of GDP) 12.85 12.46 12.51 12.80
    Budget balance (% of GDP) -5.28 -4.73 -5.90 -5.40
    Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 4.01 3.78 4.30 3.81
    Public debt (% of GDP) 56.52 57.66 60.60 62.20
    Labour costs per hour (USD) 0.59 0.62 0.66 0.74
    Recorded unemployment (%) 9.17 9.20 9.90 9.50
    Current-account balance/GDP -0.59 0.37 0.91 0.50
    Foreign-exchange reserves (mUS$) 37,902 45,871 67,666 98,903


    No, thats a misconception!

    Correct!

    Cold simulations are accurate from both plutonium and enriched uranium device.
    Only problem is that you cannot get real data unless you detonate a device.
    Our policy is to have a refined delivery system by missiles as well as by air and therefor we needed different yieldtests.

    Pakistan did not sign NFU agreement with India nor do we believe in such doctrine.
    Our nuclear arsenal is the only reasonable deterrance against India as we're totally outnumbered in conventional field.
    Signing NFU would be a political sueside.

    I meant that people shouldn't have a say when it comes to national security.
    But thats my opinion only.
    1971 we lost due external and internal affairs, should discuss that in some other thread.

    How can you compare US to India or Pakistan???
    US and most western countries have the priviledges no others have.
    That includes the right to have a huge nuclear arsenal.
    Anytime we or another country would detonate a nuclear device, it would come under severe pressure from the US at all time, so there is no ideal timing for that.

    Already explained that.
    We needed data in different yields.

    Its called MAD.
     
  5. RAPTOR

    RAPTOR FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    853
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 18 / -0

    Did you know that the night before the Nuclear Test, a state of Emergency was declared in Pakistan because they recieved sattelite images of an Israeli Dolphin submarine very close to Karachi's waters? or that Israeli F-15s were preparing to fly over Pakistani airspace (They later said it was to escort Netanyahu's plane to Uzbekistan) or that india was planning to take out Kahuta before Pakistan had a chance to test its nukes? Everyone thought Pakistan was bluffing about its Nuclear largesse.........and after the Chagai blasts where the mountains of granite turned into glass......the hindu BJP MPs were so scared they were beating their heads...as shown on CNN and BBC at the time.........

    ......and Pakistan had finally arrived on the world Nuclear Scene :thumbsup:
     
  6. Bull

    Bull ELITE MEMBER

    Messages:
    6,850
    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 274 / -0
    Yes everybody knew after the blasts who was bluffing whom...;)
     
  7. RAPTOR

    RAPTOR FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    853
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 18 / -0

    Israel tested its Nuke in a joint test with South Africa in 1979 off the coast of South Africa. The world would not have known about it except for the American KH-1 spy satellites picked up the bright flash through a clear window in an otherwise stormy and cloudy morning.
     
  8. A.Rahman

    A.Rahman ELITE MEMBER

    Messages:
    4,724
    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 465 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    Canada
    wow Isreal was invloved? can you please post the story Raptor, I want to read it
     
  9. RAPTOR

    RAPTOR FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    853
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 18 / -0
    It was thoroughly discussed and reported in the News, i was in Islamabad that very night and interestly in the presence of the US ambasadors wife at a diplomatic function the next day when Pakistan met with destiny and exploded 5 nukes in one go. :thumbsup:
     
  10. RAPTOR

    RAPTOR FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    853
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 18 / -0
    Here is an excerpt from the full article..



    One interesting and significant aspect of this address is the order chosen for Sharif's congratulation of the organizations responsible. The organization chiefly responsible for the development of the nuclear devices, and the tests, was the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) not the better known Khan Research Laboratories (KRL).</I> Another interest, and possible significant, fact is the that the initial reports issuing from Pakistan between the time of the tests and Sharif's official announcement indicated that Pakistan had conducted two tests, not five. As discussed below, two is a much more plausible number of devices to have been conducted in a single shaft simultaneous test, especially for a nation with no prior test experience and limited amounts of weapon material.
    The extreme tension pervading Pakistan at the time of the tests is illustrated by the fact that five hours after Sharif's announcement (as reported by Agence France Presse), Pakistan summoned the Indian high commissioner to the foreign office and informed him that "credible information" had been received that an attack was to be mounted before dawn on Pakistan's nuclear installations by India, and that "swift and massive retaliation" would result. The ambassador, Satish Chandar, was asked to convey to New Delhi that Islamabad "expected the Indian government to desist from any irresponsible act."
    Shortly afterward President Rafiq Tarar issued a terse announcement declaring a state of emergency and suspension of fundamental rights in Pakistan citing threats of unspecified "external aggression."


    http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Pakistan/PakTests.html
     
  11. RAPTOR

    RAPTOR FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    853
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 18 / -0
    Full article here--> http://www.chowk.com/show_article.cgi?aid=00002483&channel=civic%20center


    A team of Indian experts was dispatched by Mrs. Indira Gandhi to Israel soon after the later`s action against Iraq`s nuclear facility on 7th June 1981 to apprise Tel Aviv of another similar danger in embryo. Mr. Bharat Karnad, a defense analyst with Center for Policy Studies New Delhi, observed in his reports that the Indian defence scientists discussed with their Israeli counterparts about the possibility of an Iraq-type attack on Pakistan to get rid of an Islamic Bomb which was in the making at Kahota Research Laboratory (KRL).

    Israel, as a matter of fact, had no danger from Pakistan`s atomic bomb. Yet it was always afraid of an Islamic Bomb &#8212; exactly what Pakistan had been innocently advertising around the globe. Right from the beginning of Pakistan` nuclear programme back in 1974, Islamabad had been projecting it as an Islamic bomb. Israel`s concern was that an Islamic bomb, given Pakistan`s close relations with Arab countries, will eventually be in Arab hands where Israel is considered illegitimate. Action against Iraq was also based on this philosophy that no Arab country should be a conventional or nuclear threat to Israel`s existence.

    Why Israel is not afraid of Pakistan`s nukes is a question which needs a logical examination. India attempted on many occasions to cajole Israel into attacking Kahuta but never committed, materially or physically, its own participation to this exercise. Israel was required, by the Indian theory, to do all the work itself while Indian role would be that of a consultant only. New Delhi knew that its nuclear, social and industrial infrastructure would be an open target of Pakistani`s conventional retaliatory response and Tel Aviv was aware of severe political fallout of such an extreme action against yet another Muslims country after Iraq.

    Apart from political considerations and logistical constraints, action against Kahuta was never a technical possibility after 1984 when the KRL started to produce enriched uranium. Statement of a Pakistan`s Foreign Ministry spokesman on 6th July 1998 that "there was a real threat of attack on our installations on the night of 27th May...(the night after Pakistan conducted nuclear tests)," underlines the hype with which Indo-Israel nexus is blown out of proportions. Everyone knew that such an attack on such a time would wipe off not only almost the entire population of Pakistan and would affect Indian population as well, but Israel would also become the center of political radiation of this attack.

    Islamabad and Tel Aviv are both in the possession of long-range missiles and none of them is safe from the other. Pakistan`s Ghauri III has been tested to do 2,700 kilometers, a range which could be increased to 3,500 kilometers with the adjustment of payload. Israel, on the other hand, has long ago tested its Jericho II to a range of 1,450 kilometers. But that`s not it! According to a former pentagon official familiar with Israel`s missile programme: "it`s safe to assume that the missile (Jericho II) hasn`t been tested to full range."

    Moreover, Jerichos are fired from Shavit launcher which is powerful enough to make Jericho II travel to a distance of 4,500 kilometers. Israel is also believed to have Jericho III ready with a range up to 5,000 kilometers.

    Which Jerichos and Ghauris able to hit Kahuta and Soreq (Israel`s equivalent of Kahuta) Tel Aviv and Islamabad are involved in a balance of terror even from a distance of over 3,500 kilometers.

    But this balance of terror constituted by missiles, does not create any parity in the striking or bargaining positions of these two countries because Israel still has edge over Pakistan in the shape of its anti-missile defence system, Arrow II, which is considered one of the most sophisticated anti-ballistic missile system. This is the same system a vital component of which, according to the International Herald Tribune, had already been purchased by India in February this year.

    A green signal is also expected to be given by Washington for the sale of Arrow II to India because the Department of Defense has already cleared that the "defensive nature" of the Arrow II does not breach Missile Technology Control Regime or MTCR &#8212; thereby, paving way for its shipment to India and letting both Tel Aviv and New Delhi escape from confinements of MTCR.

    Another item for sale is Phalcon radar, an Airborne Early Warning, Command and Control System which Israel claims is superior to the US Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS). The Phalcon which is said to be a "close copy" of the US E-3 Sentry and which was denied to China in 2000 despite a deal closed as early as in 1996, is now being packed for New Delhi.

    Despite Israel`s generous arms supply to India and its own mighty military muscles, Pakistan`s friendship still holds immense attraction for Tel Aviv. Its status as the only nuclear Islamic state is respected more in Israel than any other Muslim country. Though Pakistan tirelessly lobbied to project its nuclear capability for the entire Ummah, branding it an Islamic Bomb, it remained fail to sell this notion well in Muslim community. That Pakistan possesses the most advance and devastating war machine among Muslim countries is a fact which does not find many admirers in Muslim world. The due respect and regard which should have come to Pakistan automatically after becoming first Islamic nuclear power, was nowhere to be seen.
     
  12. Bull

    Bull ELITE MEMBER

    Messages:
    6,850
    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 274 / -0
    Raptor the long ranage missiles where developed by pakistan in the 90s and there was niothing in Paks arsenal that wud have dettered the Israelis.

    I think the reason that they backed off would be the non commitment of India in this matter.
     
  13. Munir

    Munir PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

    Messages:
    2,756
    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2006
    Ratings:
    +11 / 2,604 / -1
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    Germany
    The Israeli did go far to stop any muslim nation getting nuclear weapons. But indeed Pakistan is not intrested in attacking Israel and therefore had no weapons to do that. I am not sure whether a nation that has so any weapons will not be able to retaliate if needed. Do not underestimate Pakistan. They are not showing it but if needed the reaction will be painful. Why else did US ask India to stop shouting about attacking Pakistan? They knew that it would be a MAD scenario. And how does a nation show that it is capable? It produces nuclear weapons in a few weeks after India did. It produced cruisemissiles. It does co-operate with China very well in making better and better arms. Something that surely not is shown by the neighbour.

    If Israel would attack it would be from the neighbouring state cause flying all the way from Tel Aviv is a pertty long mission even for Flankers...
     
  14. Bull

    Bull ELITE MEMBER

    Messages:
    6,850
    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2006
    Ratings:
    +0 / 274 / -0
    Noboby underestimates pakistan

    Shall we start again...NO i wont take the bait Munir.

    They dont have flankers and have other planes to do that.
     
  15. sigatoka

    sigatoka SENIOR MEMBER

    Messages:
    1,013
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2005
    Ratings:
    +0 / 29 / -0
    Yes Pakistan didnt have anything to deter Israel with, but how would Israel have destroyed Pakistans nuclear infrastructure?? Their planes clearly didn't have the range, remember Iraq was much closer to Israel than Pakistan is.