• Friday, November 15, 2019

Nuclear Detonation, A mistake?

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by sigatoka, Oct 29, 2005.

  1. sigatoka

    sigatoka SENIOR MEMBER

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    Following India's detonation of nuclear devices, Pakistan soon followed with its own detonations of nuclear devices. I strongly believe that the detonations by Pakistan was a mistake. After India tested its devices the western world employed sanctions against India and severly hampered its economic growth and modernisation.

    Had Pakistan not detonated its nuclear devices and not become a declared nuclear power, it would have escaped Western sanction and all those years of economic growth forgone would not have been so. Israel has a nuclear capability much greater than that of India and Pakistan combined and yet it has never detonated a single nuclear device.

    The counter argument that India would not have feared Pakistan's nuclear capability had it not tested it nuclear device is bunk. Uncertain retaliation is more effective than certain retaliation, after all the game theorist who studied the mathematics of the cold war and nuclear strategy did not win a noble prize for nothing.

    What is certain is that the benefits to not detonating is clear while the costs would have been negligble.
     
  2. EagleEyes

    EagleEyes PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    Dear sigatoka,

    What can i say? I certainly agree with you that if Pakistan have not detonated its nuclear devices it wouldn't have to face economic and military trouble after 1998. In my opinion, Pakistani scientists and politicians in a way countered India, during those days, if you dont know those were the days that there were too much tension on the both sides, and both sides feared war.

    Also if you look at the time line, the tensions were too soar that just after a year Pakistan trained mujhideens and sent them across the border. I believe the nuclear devices were detonated due to Pakistan wanted strong foreign policy, and in a way it wanted to be proud of itself and nobody even thought about the sanctions that will be imposed on us after the detonation.

    The decision was not properly discussed, and after the approval from the President Nawaz Shareef, they decided to detonate it without doing any discussion/debate on it.

    This is just my opinion they might have discussed it they might have not, but seeing sanctions i will just assume that the matter was not discussed properly, and they didn't knew about the sanctions that would be imposed.

    Pakistan could detonate the bomb later on, this way it could first fix its military and gain its economical value, ones the military build up is done (weapons are recieved from the United States) and the economy is in good shape (big countries are depended on it) then we could easily detonate it without having fear of sanctions, because we would have learned from India. :frusty:
     
  3. Thunder

    Thunder SENIOR MEMBER

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    What you said is right. But we have to remember that at that time. We had currpot leaders. So even if we were'nt sancationed, we still would've been a 3rd world coutnry. So the nuke tests were a right thing to do.It showed the world what we are capabale of. :PakistanFlag:

    And as for isreal. The reason they don't test nukes is because if they did. They would get kicked out of UN.
     
  4. Sharjeel

    Sharjeel BANNED

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    good idea as they are now garanteed protection against the chinese and also us!
     
  5. Best of the Best

    Best of the Best FULL MEMBER

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    Easier said than done even i could write an article like that and convince you why we should have detonate a nuclear device....anyways
    it was a need at that time and something had to be done and frankly speaking detonating a nuclear device was our last option....
     
  6. EagleEyes

    EagleEyes PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    Could you go more on that and tell me why was it our last option?

    Regards,
     
  7. Thunder

    Thunder SENIOR MEMBER

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    Things with india were heating up back then. They had no worries because they were getting all the advanced technology, while we were under sanctions. Above all they had nukes tested already. When Pakistan detonated nuclear device. People were litterly dancing on the streets.
     
  8. EagleEyes

    EagleEyes PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    Good point, India had already detonated its nuclear devices in 1970s* though Pakistan didn't test it, although under my sources, i have a pretty good knowledge that Pakistan made its nuclear bomb way before than India did, as the result india competed and actually tested without caring/knowing the consequnces for it. Pakistan later tested in 1998 just after India made the second test!
     
  9. Best of the Best

    Best of the Best FULL MEMBER

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    India at that time was conventionally was more well equit at that time
    and after the nuclear test from india we were at major risk considering that tentions were all high at that time if war would have broken out india would have tested its new nukes on pakistan at the begning of the war that is if war had broken out. pakistan had to react quicky it had all the tech material and knowledge to make a nuclear device and so the pakistani side assembled a nuclear device and tested it giving a clear message to india..... :tease: :mace_rune: :tank:
     
  10. EagleEyes

    EagleEyes PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    Dear Best,

    If we have not tested it they wouldn't have known, in this situation nobody can actually embargoes us, because we haven't detonated the nuclear bomb, look at Isreal everybody knows it has nuclear devices but it have never detonate it. This also given an advantage of that nobody will attack you.

    Think about it, what would happen if Pakistan tested its nuclear missiles and the test was not successful? Now everybody knows you have nuclear weapons that dont work, and they will attack you as soon as possible to get rid of your threat/nuclear technology.

    Just a thought. Cheers.

     
  11. Best of the Best

    Best of the Best FULL MEMBER

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    LOL Ahsan do you actually think that isreal must have not tested its nuke IMO(in my opinion) even if isreal would have tested its nukes who in the world would have even known about it besides USA dont you think USA the country giving 3 billion + aid to isreal yearly to buy arm's wouldnt have known about isreal having nukes come on its just a media hype i am dead sure that isreal must have tested it nukes one way or another..........mind it they are isreal a nation always supported by the U.S we are Pakistan the nation always sanctioned by them........... besides there is no use digging up old grayes :cheers:
     
  12. Thunder

    Thunder SENIOR MEMBER

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    Isreal had their spy sats eyeing pakistan.US had their sats eying pakistan.India had their sats eyeing pakistan.So with so many countries looking at pakistan, how could pakistan get away with such big thing.And besides, india has it's RAW agents in pakistan that coud've told india that pakistan has nukes. :hypocrite:
     
  13. A.Rahman

    A.Rahman GUEST

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    Enemies Go Nuclear
    Pakistan answers India with its own atomic tests. Now will the two rivals be able to avoid going to the brink?


     
  14. sigatoka

    sigatoka SENIOR MEMBER

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    Israel has never ""tested" its nuclear device with physical detonation. Does this make Israel's nuclear capabilities any less formidable. Every tom, Dick and harry knows that both Israel and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and thanks to Vanunu we know thats Israels capability is greater than India and Pakistan's nuclear capability COMBINED.

    Pakistan's GDP at PPP when it detonated its nuclear weapon must have been around 250 billion. Pakistan's natural rate of GDP growth is 6% without any significant reforms. 8% with deep reforms right now as Musharaf and Shaukit Azziz has proven and 10% with brutal reforms that all Asian tigers and China right now is proving.

    What might not be easily realised is that Pakistan grew at ONLY 2% after the test due to trade and investment restrictions. 6%-2% = 4%
    4% of 250 = 10Billion. The effect lasted 5years. 10B *5 = 500Billion.

    2% growth doesnt feel terrible because you dont feel loosing the 4% potential growth that YOU HAVE.

    The development of the nuclear bomb had insignificant effects on the Pakistani economy. The ACT of DETONATING the nuclear bomb pissed away $500 billion U.S. Dollars. Do the Maths, it was $3,333 over 5 years for every man, woman and child in Pakistan.

    Thats $3,333 U.S. Dollars over 5 years for EVERY woman, man and Child.

    Look i understand that the detonation may have improved the technical expertise of Pakistan's scientists. But was it worth $500B????
    I only wish the people pushing the red button were aware that they destroyed 500B U.S. dollars of the Poor Pakistan's people. The Earthquake has caused ONLY 5B worth of damage. Look the Indians were idiots in detonating their nuclear bomb. When a sheep jumps off a cliff (as they sometimes they do) there was no reason for Pakistan to also jump.

    Every decision especially one so significant must take into account NOT Only the benefits of the actions. Pakistani decision makers did take into account the benefits of detonating. Every decision MUST ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT the COSTS of the decision. In this case the cost was $500 Billion.
     
  15. Neo

    Neo RETIRED

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    Under the circumstances it was justified for Pakistan to go nuclear and in my humble opinion it GoP did wise doing that.
    Btw its a general misconcept that India suffered huge from the detonation.
    Their economy recorded over 5% after 1998 due growing private sector and strong relations with Russia and.
    Only setback came in some industrial projects where cooperation with US and EU came under sanctions.



    What are you talking about???
    Pakistan's been under sanctions ever since 1977, though they were lifted from time to time to serve Uncle's interests i.e. Afghanistan.
    Israel's nuclear program is based on plutonium and not enriched uranium.
    With advanced techonolgies they've been able to run long series of cold simulations giving them a credible operational system.
    So it cannot be compared to Pakistan.

    Both India and Pakistan have a good intelligence netwok and know what they are capable of.
    Both countries have feared eachother due lack of CBM's and AEW's.

    Please eleborate..