• Tuesday, December 11, 2018

North-Korean nuclear weapons situation (2018)

Discussion in 'World Affairs' started by peacefan, Mar 8, 2018.

  1. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    Hi all.

    I've been following the news, and i'm very happy with the new course North-Korea appears to be willing to consider or even take.

    Now it's up to the US to use both the carrot and the stick, preferably the carrot,
    and to assign someone as special envoy (or whatever title is appropriate) for the North-Korean situation, who thinks not just from a perspective of protecting the US, but from a perspective of protecting the world. You'll need such a person if you want to keep the coalition against North-Korea's nuclear weapons program in tact.
    It would be best if this person is (a) male and (b) very very smart and patient and diplomatic, while also having the capacity to be assertive as hell when needed.

    i will now email this thread to my regular mailinglist that includes the US, Dutch and Israeli governments, and several US and Dutch mass-media corporations as well.

    see also :
    Listen to ‘The Daily’: North Korea Reaches Out
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/07/podcasts/the-daily/north-korea-nuclear-weapons.html


    North Korea Signals Willingness to ‘Denuclearize,’ South Says
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/06/world/asia/north-korea-south-nuclear-weapons.html


    Real hope for peace in North Korea, or just a chimera?
    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-korea-talks-20180307-story.html

    Trump Barely Has Anyone to Talk to North Korea
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/03/north-korea-talks/555041/
     
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  2. war&peace

    war&peace ELITE MEMBER

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    That's a tall order... You expect this from Trump administration?
     
  3. Wolfhunter

    Wolfhunter FULL MEMBER

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  4. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    Expect is a big ugly word in the Western dictionaries ;)

    but yes, i'll keep motivating all sides towards peace, sometimes with tough language, and with nice language whenever possible :)
     
  5. war&peace

    war&peace ELITE MEMBER

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    You'll keep motivating all sides by posting on PDF...well good luck then :enjoy:
     
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  6. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    you'd be surprised how many professionals in intel and militaries read these forums.. ;)

    and did you know if you don't log in to the forum, your view isn't even counted? that's the same on many websites by the way.
     
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  7. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/h...ons-from-a-veteran-negotiator/article/2650961

    i don't agree entirely with this guy.
    i don't believe the iron fist approach will work well to restrain either Iran's or North-Korea's nuclear weapons ambitions.

    but i do believe we need to hammer out an agreement that prolongs (Iran) or includes (North-Korea) no-notice full nuclear weapons inspections, in return for real rewards for the Iranian and North-Korean nations in the form of no-sanctions.

    of course, and quite unfortunately, nobody is going to give everything up for a simple agreement.
    leaders will want to play to their domestic audiences.

    so it's probably going to have to be the 'give a little, get a little' approach to peacekeeping, folks.
     
  8. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    There's one more thing i'd like to add to this public international discussion today:

    North Korea is never going to destroy their designs for the ICBMs, ICBM launchers, and nuclear weapons.
    They will have the ability to rebuild any nuclear arsenal in short order.
    They will have the ability to pass this knowledge "in secret" to other nations they feel can "help them against the US and NATO and anyone else who gets in their way".

    (1) So the North-Koreans need parenting.
    We here over in NATO, need to insist on getting copies of North-Korea's (and Iran's) nuclear weapons designs, so we can see who they pass it to,
    and we need to pressure the North-Koreans and Iranians into no-notice nuclear weapons inspections (including into suspected ICBM and ICBM launcher and nuclear weapons delivery machines production facilities) (all over their nations, not a single room of a single building or any cave anywhere in such a country is to be excluded),
    for at least the next few decades.

    you may have (part of) the designs now, but we can't allow you to actually have the stuff built and ready to go.
    too many among you hate us too much for that, North-Koreans and Iranians.

    and we can also not allow you to join the M.A.D. club (Mutually Assured Destruction club) - too many among you are seriously suspected of not respecting the M.A.D. principle enough for it to actually work with you, Iranians and North-Koreans.

    (2) a principle of war (principle of peace actually) that works *together* with the M.A.D. principle (by using one principle of peace for between some nations, and this another principle between other nations) : one side has to be significantly stronger than the other side for war to be permanently avoided.
    and the stronger side will respect the militarily weaker side, *for being* militarily weaker.

    international pressure will see that both (1) and (2) are constantly enforced.
    the world's populations do not like to live in fear of Armageddon.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  9. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/08/opinions/will-anyone-stand-in-trumps-corner-as-he-fights-kim-jong-un-opinion/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+rss/cnn_latest+(RSS:+CNN+-+Most+Recent)

    interesting video and article, according to me.

    North-Korean leaderships : i can tell you this for sure : we will not abandon military support for South-Korea nor our presences in that region, for much the same reason as there is a huge landmine field between South-Korea and North-Korea; to prevent actual war.

    that said, it would be great for North-Korean karma *and* prosperity, and believe it or not : international standing, if you prove yourselves sincere in the diplomacy processes that you've now accepted.

    if you want a decreased military western presence, if you want less military shows of force by NATO in the region you share with the culturally different South-Koreans, then don't end the diplomacy or try to restart it under different terms, by building any new weaponry at all, let alone more advanced weaponry, or by testing existing weaponry again in your own show of force.
    if you do any of that, i think NATO leaders will station more and more advanced weaponry of our own near your country.

    if you want an actual peace process with the South-Koreans, accept that you are two different countries now, with vastly different cultures that don't trust eachother very much.
    and that this is unlikely to change within decades, or even within your lifetimes, North-Korean leaders and people.
    you *can* however, work towards a better future for your children, North-Koreans.
    your people are starving, do something about it, other than trying to appear strong while only getting yourselves sanctioned and put on the track that saw Saddam and his comrades removed from power in Iraq in the end.
    that's not a threat. it's a reminder of how it took 2 decades or slightly more to go from tough sanctions to regime change in Iraq.

    and the Iraqi people, they're fairly happy now with the Americans, even though they might not want to admit it.
    we used to install dictators. these days we install democracies and parent those democracies into adulthood.

    don't go down Saddam's course, for your own good, North-Korean leaders.
    don't think Russia or China can ultimately protect you, if you betray the peace process a few more times.
    we can mobilize the world opinion against you by simply giving a historic account that goes back 50 to 100 years of seriously bad behavior (internationally and domesticly) by the North-Korean Kim-family leaderships.

    Kim Jong Un, your press photos in diplomacy mode are great. Just as good or even better as those of other nation leaders. And i mean that.
    But the test lies in what you do, not how you smile for the cameras.
     
  10. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/08/politics/donald-trump-kim-jong-un/index.html

    https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/trump-accepts-offer-to-meet-kim-jong-un.547859/

    that's very, very good news to wake up to :)

    the leaders and negotiators get to take full credit, as usual of course.
    they'll be doing a lot more work than me on this deal, after all :)

    it wasn't any different in the end for other diplomatic efforts by me, i do step aside, like a person like me is supposed to.

    i'll be focussing on building more news display software today, but i'll also check the headlines from time to time.
    i'm pretty sure the 2018 round of the North-Korean nuclear deal (i didnt fully realize there already was one at least since the Clinton Administration's days), will run smoothly now, without much further harsh language from me, unless the deal seems to seriously derail of course.

    have a nice day :)
     
  11. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/09/politics/north-korea-meeting-trump-conditions/index.html
    CNN tends to cater to US Democrats, but is not as annoying to US Republicans as MSNBC can be for them.

    http://www.msnbc.com/ali-velshi/watch/trump-s-gamble-on-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-1181925443733
    important MSNBC video on the subject (US Democrat's most staunch supporting mass media TV corporation in the US)

    bottom-line of these messages:
    diplomacy between the US (and therefore NATO) and North-Korea has run into an obstacle.
    possibly a serious obstacle.

    i'll keep monitoring the news at least on the relevant times in my timezone, each day.

    {update}

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/09/opinions/north-korea-trump-kim-jong-un-ghitis/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+rss/cnn_latest+(RSS:+CNN+-+Most+Recent)
    The South-Koreans and the rest of the world need not be that worried i think about a (temporary or longer-lasting) reduction in the US' military presence near North-Korea.

    Weapons get moved out of range, new weapons are moved into the region by other parties (Russians, Chinese, North-Koreans themselves, some other allies of the North-Koreans perhaps as well), but ultimately the balance of power will be upheld. It's easy to fly in new military gear, takes less than 20 hours. Nukes arrive a lot faster still, and when put together that's going to keep every nuclear weapons capable country *plus* the countries not allowed nuclear weapons, in check (vs eachother i should add). When it doesn't keep them in check militarily (Iraq vs Kuwait war) or economically (Libya, Iraq), you end up with an military intervention up to a regime change of one sort or another. Which is not as bad as whole continents at war at the same time. Refugees for instance have nowhere to go in such cases.

    That's what i think. Others have different beliefs / opinions, as shown by these recent articles and video reports.

    {update}
    http://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watc...rger-summit-without-preparation-1181962307511

    Nice to see that both MSNBC and Fox News (US Republicans most staunch (strongest) supporters) are *both* dead wrong here.

    Why do pre-conditions always have to be set for talks? Let's start talking, walk away when necessary, and be actually willing to return to talks whenever the other side feels like talking again.
    At worst, the other side can prove themselves stuck in loops that seem actually dangerous or really strange.
    At best, we might actually achieve lasting secure peace.
    In other words : if you want to play tough on a country, *they* need to make *themselves* guilty, by their own chioce(!!!), we can't drive them into a corner by setting tough pre-conditions for talks.
    We can't do that with any nation, understand?!.

    I hope neither TV channel is interested in prolonging conflict / tensions through their reporting, just to have some very interesting headlines every 5 years from one major crises or another? I want to think you don't do that sort of thing, but it's not always easy for the more audience-specific TV channels and mass media outlets like Iranian and Russian state media outlets *or* Fox News or MSNBC.
    That might come as a surprise to MSBNC staff and managers and editors. But it's an honest observation by someone fairly neutral; me.
     
  12. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    i can't say FoxNews, Russia's RT, MSBNC, Iranian state TV, or any other mass media outlet at all, are wrong all the time, either.

    the North-Koreans should watch this video, and realize too many people can not see accept them as armed with any nuclear weapons or ICBMs at all.

    talks may happen, but i recommend to President Trump, after seeing this opinion,
    that he simply makes sure that that photo-opportunity for Leader Kim (of the summit), with pre-notice from now until the summit happens,
    into an event where every statement that President Trump makes,
    turns into a challenge for Leader Kim and his government,
    to actually give up ICBM launchers, ICBM missiles of any range capability, *and* the nuclear weapons grade nuclear materials plus all the facilities to produce those, like Iran was and is forced to do. To verifiable destroy their own nuclear weapons equipment that they've built. And *then*, the North-Koreans can claim diplomatic and moral victory over the US towards their own people. We just care about the actual nuclear threat North-Korea will soon pose to Asia and the US and eventually Europe, if it does not give up the *continued expansions of it's nuclear arsenal* and *actually de-nuclearizes* in the form of 'voluntarily' destroying the equipment.

    We here in NATO should not appear weak or gullible. That invites serious trouble for everyone.

    If the North-Koreans want to be assured they can pressure the US government again,
    then all they need to realize is that if they keep the knowledge, it's quite easy to rebuild a nuclear arsenal.
    but we can not allow you to have the things ready to be fired, North-Koreans.
    that is the line not to cross that i found the most practical to draw.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...orean-state-media-quiet-kims-overtures-trump/

    That is acceptable (to me at least). North-Korea works differently than a western country where things are announced to the people early on.


    http:\//www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43353274 {empty space above here is a small forum software error}

    BBC (the ones who published this article) is run from the United Kingdom in Europe, for those of you who don't know.

    and as you can see, the world is far from convinced the North-Koreans are sincere.
    neither am i, to be honest.

    but no doubt President Trump is getting some sleep at the moment (it's 00:38 over there in Washington DC right now, on a friday night), and Trump may well need some time to consider these viewpoints.

    everything i posted in the last 10 hours or so, is yet to be processed (as massmedia news articles) by the world's leaderships.
    contrary to what some may think, Trump is not the only nation leader or nation who has / have a say in these matters.
     
  13. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    http://www.msnbc.com/brian-williams...-trump-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-1182254147789

    interesting news report.

    all of the older diplomatic people, who've kept us safe from North-Korean nuclear ambitions in the past, from US Republicans to US Democrats to the U.K.'s in Europe too, seem to agree that we can not allow North-Korea to advance any more in the nuclear weapons field.
    i agree.

    but as i said, President Trump and the rest of the US East Coast, are asleep or enjoying their time off.

    we'll all give them time.

    i'll continue to post news articles in this thread that i deem of relevance and of use to steer this thing to long-lasting secure peace for all those who are (severely) worried about this.
    that happens to end up being most of the western news on this entire topic, by the way.

    https://www.voanews.com/a/china-urges-north-and-us-to-talk-soon/4285781.html

    a very good summary article, and the opinion of China's foreign ministry as well (which would not speak without the entire Chinese political leadership agreeing to a public statement by them).
     
  14. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/09/opinions/trump-north-korea-olive-branch-opinion-kirby/index.html
    (CNN)President Trump's agreement to meet with Kim Jong Un is a moment for all Americans. We should embrace it as such.
     
  15. peacefan

    peacefan SENIOR MEMBER

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    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018...+foxnews/opinion+(Internal+-+Opinion+-+Mixed)

    i'm starting to trust Fox News a little better now.
    to be honest i've never followed their reporting at all until this year, just a few weeks ago.