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New fighter for PAF Doctrine?

akramishaqkhan

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I would've liked that approach, but I can see where the PAF is coming from.

Basically, any NGFA investment would be a big risk and massive use of funds. You can't park all of your eggs in that one basket, no matter how good it sounds in theory. You need a "control" to fall back on in case the flagship program (NGFA) hits a snag, and it will hit a few snags.

So the question we have to ask is, "what is a good enough control?" Maybe the FC-31 might have been the ideal control, but it's not a factor (still in development) and will likely be costly. The JF-17 is available and is lower cost, but it may not be enough to handle the threats of the 2020s and early 2030s.

This basically leaves us with the J-10CE. From the PAF's standpoint, the J-10CE is probably good enough to support its needs for the 2020s/early 2030s, and it's available at an acceptable cost. So, if things go sideways with NGFA, the PAF could keep adding more J-10CEs without necessarily compromising the future NGFA procurement.

There might even be some other factors, such as the possibility of using the WS-10 in the TFX and building engine commonality between the two future mainstay fighters.

Moreover, Pakistan can only support the development (or co-development) of one fighter, but it needs both heavyweight and medium-weight jets. So, one of these must come off-the-shelf, and the J-10CE met the ASR for the near- and long-run.
I think an important question to ask is what the mid term development cycle for the J10C? I would imagine PAF is privy to that roadmap. This might include more advanced munitions, higher load with enhanced engines, more downstream tech integration from China broader development efforts. We could see a decent J10C which could give us a near term answer to address regional threats.
 

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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I think an important question to ask is what the mid term development cycle for the J10C? I would imagine PAF is privy to that roadmap. This might include more advanced munitions, higher load with enhanced engines, more downstream tech integration from China broader development efforts. We could see a decent J10C which could give us a near term answer to address regional threats.
Yep. I'd also note that the general view of air arms around the world is that 4.5+ and 5-gen will work together in the future. The key is whether the 4.5+ gen can take on some of the advancements from NGFA, e.g., radar, ECM, unmanned air-teaming/loyal wingman UAVs, and so on.
 

kursed

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Those birds if they come will be with Chinese or Russian engines?
I have no idea.
Agreed, but a for a fighter to be delivered in late 2021/ early 2022 an induction of late 2023 / early 2024 i.e. 2 years is too much. One of the news is incorrect. Thanks.
Nope. Rafales are still not part of active Indian ORBAT. It’s fairly normal for a new jet to take between a year and a half to achieve complete induction into an air force without any prior experience on the type.

Just a conversion of the pilot to a new type takes 6 months plus, if you do not cut corners. It’s not like driving a car, you’ve to sit and study a whole new system (with hundreds of subsystems and functions).

Then add training of multiple bases worth of ground staff, maintenance crews and ultimately develop tactics and doctrine for the new bird. Here on the forums, jets are talked about like changing cars, the reality is entirely different.

These birds eventually form part of a larger system (war of systems), they’re merely tools un to themselves. And there’s no shortcut to achieving it, it takes time.
 
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akramishaqkhan

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Yep. I'd also note that the general view of air arms around the world is that 4.5+ and 5-gen will work together in the future. The key is whether the 4.5+ gen can take on some of the advancements from NGFA, e.g., radar, ECM, unmanned air-teaming/loyal wingman UAVs, and so on.
You are absolutely correct. The F15x is a perfect example of this approach. I am particularly interested in figuring out the J10 future blocks. There is a lot there that none of us is privy to that can have a major impact on the decision making process. Which was why I was also arguing around the change in the dynamics of the Azm project away from a NGFA to core modular tech enhancements in the 7 areas I identified, that could have a huge impact on UAV and UCAV development, with force multipliers for ECM/EW. It is these technologies that are truly the future of platform design and development.
 

messiach

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A lonely voice in the wilderness. Just a lonely voice.

Indeed turbine production eg for civil aircrafts, windmills, cargo ships, submarines, power-plants, hydroelectrics is the MOST IMPORTANT steps this government can take - far far far more important than NxGFA.

Unfortunately there is an unholy alliance in your central establishment in Islo in between - water&power generation ministry, oil&Gas, finance & the Law / legal affairs ministry. Many of them are on uncle samites payroll - eg tabish gauhar, nadeem babar, hashmi & many others. Unfortunately when i start to name names, people start labelling as 'anti-Urdu speaking community'. So i have stopped speaking on the issue. My motto has always been - Hate the crime, not the criminal.



We don't make turbofan engines,without own powerplant making a NGFA is useless exercise in my opinion,we would be able to make Avionics and airframe materials but powerplant?.
P.S:-What if organisations working on strategic projects are involved in for making a move into relam of powerplants?
@messiach
 

Trailer23

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Bharat sooner or later is going to opt F-35.
Bahrat can use a moist towel & fantasize 'bout the F-35, but as long as they're going to go forward with the S-400, they aren't getting an F-35's.

The US wasn't pleased with India choosing the Rafale. Now US may turn the other cheek if India go about getting the S-400, but India will have to compromise by buying the F/A-18 Super Hornet(s) for the Navy.
 

Big_bud

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I am no insider on the PAF acquisition and dont know the future plans of same.
But I do understand the financial angle as have lots of research work which I read and some solutions compiled for bosses in past specifically on pak military funding.

In my earlier post I was only using if condition, if 2 squads J10C are being procured off the shelf which comes close to 36 to 40 overall cost of ownership will put breaks on any parallel programs as in JF17 BLk3 aquisitions.
Pakistan done good thing by taking 58% of airframe manufacturing for JF17s but facts are this 58% share of airframe manufacturing are costlier than off off the shelf purchase from China specially when PAF stops buying JF17s the whole skilled manpower will go to waste.
So logic says if a superior plateform is being bought off the shelf why to waste acquiring inferior plateform with access costs.
A J10C can perform infact outperform all roles of JF17BLK3 but JF17 cant.

So either PAF will go all in for J10C for this decade or go all in for JF17 BLK3s...
Your argument is logical except for 1 very important point which destroys the whole argument. The main purpose of JF17 is to phase out F7s which we had some 200 odd no.s of. We also have Mirage 3s and Mirage 5 s that have to go. JF is supposed to be the least capable fighter that we have and it is a pretty capable fighter for a low tier fighter. I mean India won't like its Bison/ SEPCAT Jaguar to face a block 2 or 3 JF17, its a very risky proposition. I think the only reason to get J10s is to increase numbers of our front line/ top tier fighter i.e. currently the F16. India has 250+ SU30s, 66 MiG29s, 26 Rafales hence to maintain even a 1:3 comparison ratio, we need to have 100 F16s block 52+. This is where the J10cs come in. J10c has nothing to do with JF17, both have their own space & purpose within PAF.

After block 3, even Mirage 2000 would be at disadvantage against JF17, although in within visual range fight mirage is a capable fighter. Hence a 200+ figure of JF17s is important & necessary requirement for PAF as JF takes care of:
Mig21 Bison
SEPCAT Juaguar
Mirage 2000
And also the Tejas. Combined India has 300 ish of these 3-4Gen fighters.

MiG 29s
SU30s
Rafales would be the job of F16s and J10cs when they arrive. India has 350+ of these 4-4.5 Gen fighters. Hence we need 100+ of these 4-4.5 Gen fighters too.

Without a capable low tier fighter, 70 odd F16s can be expected to run around everywhere and defend the whole airspace.

JF is a resolve, to not operate any out dated aircraft in PAF. Instead improve your lower end aircrafts, make them relevant, make them high tech, make overhauling, servicing, weapon integration, MLUs cheaper & easier + unaffected by any global politics, gain autonomy in that regard and gain learning out of it in the process too. The plan is going spot on. JFs won't crash and burn like Bisons because they are new. JFs are significant because they have more hard points and carrying capacities than those, have better radars and are much more reliable. A cheap but new low tier aircraft makes perfect sense.
 
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Dreamer.

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Your argument is logical except for 1 very important point which destroys the whole argument. The main purpose of JF17 is to phase out F7s which we had some 200 odd no.s of. We also have Mirage 3s and Mirage 5 s that have to go. JF is supposed to be the least capable fighter that we have and it is a pretty capable fighter for a low tier fighter. I mean India won't like its Bison/ SEPCAT Jaguar to face a block 2 or 3 JF17, its a very risky proposition. I think the only reason to get J10s in to increase numbers of our front line/ top tier fighter i.e. currently the F16. India has 250+ SU30s, 66 MiG29s, 26 Rafales hence to maintain even a 1:3 comparison ratio, we need to have 100 F16s block 52+. This is where the J10cs come in. J10c has nothing to do with JF17, both have their own space & purpose within PAF.

After block 3, even Mirage 2000 would be at disadvantage against JF17, although in within visual range fight mirage is a capable fighter. Hence a 200+ figure of JF17s is important & necessary requirement for PAF as JF takes care of:
Mig21 Bison
SEPCAT Juaguar
Mirage 2000
And also the Tejas. Combined India has 300 ish of these 3-4Gen fighters.

MiG 29s
SU30s
Rafales would be the job of F16s and J10cs when they arrive. India has 350+ of these 4-4.5 Gen fighters. Hence we need 100+ of these 4-4.5 Gen fighters too.

Without a capable low tier fighter, 70 odd F16s can be expected to run around everywhere and defend the whole airspace.

JF is a resolve, to not operate any out dated aircraft in PAF. Instead improve your lower end aircrafts, make them relevant, make them high tech, make overhauling, servicing, weapon integration, MLUs cheaper & easier + unaffected by any global politics, gain autonomy in that regard and gain learning out of it in the process too. The plan is going spot on. JFs won't crash and burn like Bisons because they are new. JFs are significant because they have more hard points and carrying capacities than those, have better radars and are much more reliable. A cheap but new low tier aircraft makes perfect sense.
Absolutely correct.
 

Basel

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I am no insider on the PAF acquisition and dont know the future plans of same.
But I do understand the financial angle as have lots of research work which I read and some solutions compiled for bosses in past specifically on pak military funding.

In my earlier post I was only using if condition, if 2 squads J10C are being procured off the shelf which comes close to 36 to 40 overall cost of ownership will put breaks on any parallel programs as in JF17 BLk3 aquisitions.
Pakistan done good thing by taking 58% of airframe manufacturing for JF17s but facts are this 58% share of airframe manufacturing are costlier than off off the shelf purchase from China specially when PAF stops buying JF17s the whole skilled manpower will go to waste.
So logic says if a superior plateform is being bought off the shelf why to waste acquiring inferior plateform with access costs.
A J10C can perform infact outperform all roles of JF17BLK3 but JF17 cant.

So either PAF will go all in for J10C for this decade or go all in for JF17 BLK3s...
If J-10C is procured then it will be paid through Chinese long term financing while JFT is paid by local funds so no issue in procuring both in numbers.
 

The Eagle

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Speaking of too much noise about size of Thunder being light weight, it's just a simple logic that in a first, you always take small steps. Secondly, it's an evolutionary step to replace ageing fleet of light weight fighters but with more advance capabilities mainly such as BVR, EW and Radar. Last but not the least, you will take bigger step by next and that may come under an NGF or a 2hile new fighter.

Remember that J-10 has input from PAF as well. That jet evolved and was modernized with help of PAF. Not everyone hears about everything between Pak China but the level of cooperation is far bigger than a commoner can think and if we are talking about Mil to Mil, I wouldn't be wrong to say that they even kept bit of civilians away from the relations in depth. It's just strategical in many forms.
 

m52k85

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A lonely voice in the wilderness. Just a lonely voice.

Indeed turbine production eg for civil aircrafts, windmills, cargo ships, submarines, power-plants, hydroelectrics is the MOST IMPORTANT steps this government can take - far far far more important than NxGFA.

Unfortunately there is an unholy alliance in your central establishment in Islo in between - water&power generation ministry, oil&Gas, finance & the Law / legal affairs ministry. Many of them are on uncle samites payroll - eg tabish gauhar, nadeem babar, hashmi & many others. Unfortunately when i start to name names, people start labelling as 'anti-Urdu speaking community'. So i have stopped speaking on the issue. My motto has always been - Hate the crime, not the criminal.
Dear Ma'am, thank you for taking names. Somebody has to have the courage. Might I suggest you also give us some details of their wrongdoings, you know how twitter can do wonders that were unthinkable 20 years back. There are a lot of young chaps here who will be happy to troll these individuals into an explanation, and that itself might be the first step in the right direction.
 

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