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New fighter for PAF Doctrine?

Nomad40

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The PAF never bought a new platform only to stick to 36 planes.

If not for Pressler, the PAF was looking to have 150 F-16s (read it here).

Otherwise, every fighter bought on Pakistan's dime came with a procurement plan for at least 90 units:
  • F-6 was ~180 units
  • Mirage III/5 was ~90 units (before the used planes in the 1990s)
  • A-7 Corsair II plan was 110 units
  • F-16 plan was ~100 units plus an option for 50 more (pre-Pressler)
  • JF-17 was 150-200 units
If the J-10CE is coming, the PAF will not stop at 36 aircraft. It will stretch it to at least 90 units and, possibly, push it up to 150 if the funds allow it. If you actually speak to any PAF person who had been involved in the procurement process, they'll tell you this point.

This is a big reason why they didn't push for the Typhoon, Rafale or Su-35. It wasn't that they couldn't afford to acquire 1 or 2 squadrons, but to get the most out of the platform, you need it in numbers: 90+. But at that scale, not every fighter is feasible enough to acquire.
Initial Plans are for 2 squadrons, if everything is well then that would be build upon. there is a new base and another being built.

I would not be surprised if we see 5-7 squadrons (if there ever is a new fighter). Right now I haven't seen any financial efforts being made towards a purchase, when we see that then it would be imminent.

Not a ray of hope but there will be.
 

araz

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TOPGUN

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Much more realistic than the 6 month induction time. I have said that PAF will find it logistically difficult to induct 2 fighter types and establish infrastructure for block 3 as well as J10.
However a few J10s could be "loaned" to PAF to develop tactics, train staff in maintaining and flying the platforms. These could come to CCS.
A
True, when we do get these birds are they going to have A2A refueling capability ?
 

iLION12345_1

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True, when we do get these birds are they going to have A2A refueling capability ?
J-10C is definitely coming with A2A refueling capability. It uses the same system as JF-17 and Mirage for refueling so nothing extra required.
Maybe we will see induction as easily as 2023.
I have a feeling PAF might even expand its Tanker fleet before 2030. They’re already looking to expand the ELINT/EW squadron. If PAF is upsizing with more fighter squadrons, all the supporting elements have to upsize too. AD, tankers, transport, ELINT/EW, AWACS etc.

AD is already under consideration, so is EW. AWACS are already being increased given the Added Eeriye.
Rest are not as important right now, but hopefully in due time.
 

jedijedi

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The PAF never bought a new platform only to stick to 36 planes.
If history is to set the precedent for the future, then yes its a fair point.

J10C sounds interesting but do Pakistan has spare money for same after putting money into JF17 BLK3.
Even 2 squadrons might be the end of further orders for BLK3 after initial tranche.
Pakistan's budget like most modern democracies is relatively transparent and you can't expect secret funds flowing here and there, to the tune of billions of dollars. However, PAF is frugal and shrewd. Some financing option and PAF should be able to manage. Just like India didn't pay ~8 billion Euros upfront for the 36 Rafales, PAF likely won't have to pay everything from some secret kitty upfront, not to mention its going to be a much smaller payment overall.

I studied lots of Pak military funding in my days, Pak army do re route funds from there commercial enterprises but I trust my calculations BLK3 will be dead on arrival from a squad or two if J10C are indeed coming to PAF.
- Pakistan army re-routes funds or uses its commercial proceeds to nullify some of the internal operational expenses while using formal defense budget for acquisitions?

- Pakistan Army is a different entity to PAF. The commercial operations you're referring to are attributed to Pak Army not PAF if you trust the publicly available information.

- I have no official insight but I don't see how Block 3 can be dead. PAF's getting more F16s or upgrading existing fleet is questionable right now. PAF needs an upgrade on the remaining inventory in terms of Radars and AAMs to offer a realistic deterrent to IAF.

- If J10C is going to be the flagship to counter Rafale threat, do we expect PAF to sit idle when IAF is more than likely to acquire more Rafales, induct 83 Tejas MK1a and upgrade its 270 Su30s.

- You also have to note that Indian Navy's air wing will fast become an additional threat in the next 3-10 years.

J10c by no means a cheap fighter even with 100% Chinese inputs.
They should cost Paf more than even new F16 versions. Jf17 and J10C do share common weapon plateforms but still not enough to reduce the overall cost of ownership.
- J10C will be 'relatively' expensive for Pakistan's pockets but

1- PAF has to procure a jet to maintain minimum deterrence and to not have to over-rely on F16s which aren't improving much, rather set to attrit away with time.
2- On the surface, no other jet offers anywhere near the bang for the buck as J10C.
3- Multiple other factors makes this deal make sense and make it beneficial for both China and Pakistan.
  • PAF being a largish air force with seriously potent threat in IAF as the first export customer of J10C would be a good coup for the jet's future export potential.
  • A stronger PAF keeping IAF honest is in China's interest.
  • China is way smart than people credit it for, it may not appear to profit from the deal directly but it will. J10C to PAF means western rivals lose potential sales to PAF (read US/LM) and China makes further inroads into PAF.
  • On the other side, PAF gains a fairly new fighter with fewer strings attached compared to any western options.
  • Likely favorable financing options
  • J10 for PAF has been a suggestion since Musharraf days (2006-2007) so PAF has seen the jet evolve for 15 years.
  • This jet isn't operated by anybody but China so any knowledge IAF or anyone globally has is mostly intelligent guesstimates and legitimate intelligence, the latter of which is difficult owing to the great 'firewall' of China.

I am no insider on the PAF acquisition and dont know the future plans of same.
But I do understand the financial angle as have lots of research work which I read and some solutions compiled for bosses in past specifically on pak military funding.
and what do in your expert opinion will PAF do?

In my earlier post I was only using if condition, if 2 squads J10C are being procured off the shelf which comes close to 36 to 40 overall cost of ownership will put breaks on any parallel programs as in JF17 BLk3 aquisitions.
Pakistan done good thing by taking 58% of airframe manufacturing for JF17s but facts are this 58% share of airframe manufacturing are costlier than off off the shelf purchase from China specially when PAF stops buying JF17s the whole skilled manpower will go to waste.
So logic says if a superior plateform is being bought off the shelf why to waste acquiring inferior plateform with access costs.
A J10C can perform infact outperform all roles of JF17BLK3 but JF17 cant.

So either PAF will go all in for J10C for this decade or go all in for JF17 BLK3s...
PAF needs both.
 
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JamD

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This is what I wrote on another thread:
( I've mentioned j10 in the middle but read the whole post to understand the context)

Due to these reasons as well as the numerical superiority of IAF, PAF will be facing serious strain in a battle of attrition. Thus we HAVE to suppress the enemy bases within 150-200km of the border at all costs. If we are able to do that we can move our armoured formations with relative ease just like the Israelis did in 67. We have to do the pre-emptive on IAF bases other wise their numbers along with decent quality will be difficult to handle and as you have pointed out our Short ranged SAMs will be useless. The bases within this range can be suppressed by A100s or Fatah which can be equipped with cluster munitions as well as the GBU-6A having a range of 120+ km, if not by PAF itself due to strong enemy AD concentration. However even that(S400 etc) can be neutralised because I bet our intel knows the locations of their AD assets which canbe then engaged by various munitions. Indians knew this aim of PA and hence one of the reasons IAF opted SU-30s( and later its integration Brahmos) was its ability to operate from air bases deeper in India,out of reach of PAF... .... In short, preventing IAF from using its numbers is the key to Pakistani success both on land as well as the air.
I agree that that should be PAF's goal in the very start of any conflict.

I think there is quite strong indication that both PAF and IAF are aware of this calculus. You pointed out IAF's efforts already. On our side, PAF is trying to reach deeper and deeper into India with REK-III (the rocket assisted REK for the JF-17). Furthermore, with Azm envisioned as a twin-engined heavy fighter, it is evident that deep strike is on PAF's mind.
 

GriffinsRule

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Kindly tell us what this replacement is and how PAF has been able to procure this other “mirage.”

Right, but what will replace the Mirages that are being retired to be cannibalized (if they can even be cannibalized due to excessive use on them). The mirages simply cannot serve for another 10 to 15 years, especially not all of them and the ones without upgrades, they are simply obsolete and will become hazards before that time period. Azm is too far away, I don’t know why everyone thinks 15 years is such a short period of time. (I would still say 15+ Because of training, delays and building up numbers). And that’s the most ideal case (I.e No delays in Azm program), if there’s any delays then PAF will be just a sitting duck. PAF would much rather change its operating procedures and tactics with J-10Cs than fly with obsolete mirages for another 2 decades. People are highly overestimating the capabilities and especially the strike capabilities of Mirages. At the end of the day, PAF is flying them out of necessity, otherwise why would they be flying a nearly 60 year old aircraft today.

JF-17s aren’t coming fast enough, they need to replace F7PG first, of which there are nearly 60, and the current order for Block 3 is only 30. They also don’t have nearly enough range to cover for the loss of strike capability that the retiring mirages will leave behind. You also can’t have them all serving dual roles (A2G and A2A).

Another thing is; As was stated above by another member, the hole in PAF is F-16 sized, not Mirage of JF-17 sized, that’s why J-10Cs are being bought (or to put it differently, because PAF can’t get more F-16s). We are here arguing about strike aircraft while India has procured Rafales which can basically out-range any PAF aircraft with Meteor (granted The SU-30 could too on paper and we all know how that turned out…). But the PAF wants to maintain first shoot capability, the J-10C can ensure that. The mirages or the current F-16s cannot. At the same time the J-10C is good enough to cover for the strike capabilities of stock mirages, which JF-17 may or may not be able to do.

PAF has little options. As always. They’re trying to Do the best they can with what they have.

PS: I’m still absolutely not saying all the mirages are being retired, that’s simply impossible. The ROSE mirages are very likely staying till Azm. People are going for two extremes. Some think mirage is going altogether and some think it’s going nowhere. The gap between a ROSE mirage and an old mirage is massive. PAF would lose absolutely nothing replacing those old mirages and it might be able to cannibalize them to keep the better mirages in service. Because as we know, those EAF mirages never came, so where do we think the spares for these things are gonna come from in 5, 10, 15 years?
Lastly, even with J-10C, the stock mirages are absolutely staying in service for at least 3-5 more years. Because 50 J-10C aren’t showing up overnight, they will come slowly, then PAF will need to train and familiarize before they can be deployed. The mirages naturally need to be retired. Now is better than in 15 years when they become F7Ps, 4 crashes every year or some BS.
JF-17 will and should replace any Mirage IIIs. They are not coming fast enough is just silly. It's a question of budgets and in every world they will come faster and get inducted faster than J-10 if ordered. China can produce the JF-17 much in the same speed or manner as the J-10
 

iLION12345_1

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JF-17 will and should replace any Mirage IIIs. They are not coming fast enough is just silly. It's a question of budgets and in every world they will come faster and get inducted faster than J-10 if ordered. China can produce the JF-17 much in the same speed or manner as the J-10
JF-17s are going to be replacing F7PGs for at least a few more years. There’s 60+- of them to replace and only 30 new thunders on order at the moment, surely there will be another order, but hasn’t happened yet.

Pakistan does not order JF-17 from China, They are made in Pakistan. So I’m not sure why China matters there. PAC has a production capacity of 25/Year. We heard news that serial production of Block 3 was started in December 2020, but then Alan Warnes in AFM said it would start in early 2022. So I’m not sure which one it is, if it really was December 2020 then we should see the first batch early next year? They’ve been keeping things very quiet this time.
Either way, I would still expect to see them replacing F7PGs by 2024, maybe 2025. Could be earlier if block 3 deliveries are sped up.
Surely they can replace the stock mirages after that if needed since JF-17 has plenty of A2G munitions, but all of the upgraded mirages at least aren’t going anywhere. Some are convinced none of the mirages are until Azm, but I just don’t see how that will be sustainable. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong.
 

Akh1112

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Are we satisfied with them? I know PAF wasn't interested in Chinese engines for JFT.
Paf wasn’t interested because it made no sense to have half the fleet using one engine type and the other, a different type. The ws10 is in widespread service with the PLAAF and seems satisfactory
 

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