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New fighter for PAF Doctrine?

iLION12345_1

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In my opinion the J-10 is NOT a replacement for the Mirages for the following reasons:
1. The Mirages are PAF's strike element, capable of carrying various SOWs. To the best of my knowledge we are not buying the various SOWs that come with the J-10 - we have heard a lot about PL-15's and AESA's.
2. Azm is envisioned as a heavy-weight strike aircraft - and in my opinion will be the replacement to the Mirages.
3. There's an F-16 shaped gap in PAF's numbers - so IMHO the J10s are coming to augment the F16s.

That being said aircraft don't HAVE to replace another aircraft one-to-one so saying x is a replacement for y is always just a rough statement.
I don’t think anyone is assuming J-10Cs are replacing all the mirages, if they are then they’re surely wrong. but one has to assume the mirages are going to be retired before 2035 or even 2030 (specifically the ones that have absolutely no upgrades). So in that case what would be their replacement? It would be pretty difficult to keep the entire mirage fleet in the air till 2035 without any source of spare parts now.

Surely, the J-10Cs can be put into newly raised squadrons if they’re not replacing anything, but it just seems more realistic that they will replace some of the older mirages (which I don’t think PAF would be using stock mirages for long range strikes anyways, maybe only for CAS/Normal bombing runs, which Any other aircraft could do better, while the upgraded ones can still be used for SOW and RA’AD delivery).

To put it shortly, I just don’t see what else the mirages can be replaced with, nor do I see how they will physically be able to serve till 2035 (probably longer if Azm has delays) without becoming safety hazards and increasingly hard to maintain. (Again, specifically non upgraded and older mirages, there’s a big difference between a ROSE mirage and a stock mirage).
 

baqai

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As for which squadrons will be equiped first? well my bet would be something out of Masroor or Bholari, why? well first CPEC, second many people including myself have witnessed "unknown" aircraft in skies of Karachi last year, that happened for a week or so and than it stopped, God knows what's happening since than
 

m52k85

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This is my problem. You are all looking at this from a very two dimensional view.

firstly lol the phrase semi stealth irritates me, let’s just get this clear;

we do not know anything about the j10’s radar cross section, in fact, we know nothing about any aircrafts radar cross section. However we do know whether aircraft are low observable, some being more so than others.

however, there is absolutely nothing to indicate the j10 was designed from the offset to be low observable. So this claim is utterly invalid.

next, let’s look at the role the mirage serves;

it’s a bomb truck, that’s it. It’s something designed to fly low and fast, hidden behind terrain, operating under the cover of j10’s, jf17s and f16s.

The B52 does not carry missiles, this does not mean it’s obsolete, it’s role is to strike at stand off ranges outside of enemy air defence coverage, the mirage does exactly this, while it does carry shorter ranged a2g munitions, there’s no denying it’s primary role is nuclear deterrence through ra’ad, a missile with a 700km range.

aside from this, afaik, the j-10 only comes equipped with self protection jammer pods, however, in a large scale aerial engagement, the PAF will certainly employ their ew assets through the falcons, while allowing jf-17s and f-16s to use their systems for self defence.

This isn’t a matter of buying a car, this is a matter of seeing where everything fits in and can be employed in an effective means, maybe when buying a car, you will look at something with heated seats, apple CarPlay etc, however when looking at these aircraft, we have to consider these factors, if the j10 was to replace the mirage completely this would mean;
MRF is out of work until jf17 overhauls are needed.
You will need to re develop pilot training routines
You will need to implement the ground infrastructure
You will need to re implement some sort of means of having your aircraft communicate with other friendly assets
Rebuild relationships with suppliers and vendors
Re develop strategies
Re certify for certain weapons and pakistani systems.

also, afaik the mirage 5 has a higher combat radius than the j10.

the costs incurred to inducting a new platform are not purely monetary as I’ve outlined above.

one other thing,

the natural replacement for mirages is azm, the paf knows this too hence why they want a completely balls to the wall strike solution, along the lines of the yf23, one of the designs being studied. Replacing mirages with j10s for azm to come around in 15 or so years is a downright absurd idea, especially considering there is no pressing need for this.

However, this does not mean j10s are not coming.
I don’t think anyone is assuming J-10Cs are replacing all the mirages, if they are then they’re surely wrong. but one has to assume the mirages are going to be retired before 2035 or even 2030 (specifically the ones that have absolutely no upgrades). So in that case what would be their replacement? It would be pretty difficult to keep the entire mirage fleet in the air till 2035 without any source of spare parts now.

Surely, the J-10Cs can be put into newly raised squadrons if they’re not replacing anything, but it just seems more realistic that they will replace some of the older mirages (which I don’t think PAF would be using stock mirages for long range strikes anyways, maybe only for CAS/Normal bombing runs, which Any other aircraft could do better, while the upgraded ones can still be used for SOW and RA’AD delivery).

To put it shortly, I just don’t see what else the mirages can be replaced with, nor do I see how they will physically be able to serve till 2035 (probably longer if Azm has delays) without becoming safety hazards and increasingly hard to maintain. (Again, specifically non upgraded and older mirages, there’s a big difference between a ROSE mirage and a stock mirage).
OK, these are tactical questions, here consider this simplistic analysis of sorties required over a 2 week period:

Currentlty (no. of sorties required to be generated):
Mirages role (100 pcs ROSE and none-ROSE): 25 deep precision strike, 50 shallow precision strike via takbir and H-series, 25 some other.
Jf-17s pre Blk-III(~135pcs): 20 Maritime strike, 50 A2A via SD-10, 30 shallow precision strike via takbir series.
F-16: 100 A2A via Aim-120c5

Now here's how the overall capability can be upgraded with induction of 36 J-10s and simultaneous retirement of 40 to 50 Mirages, basically all none-ROSES

After introduciton of J-10s (no. of sorties required to be generated):
Mirages role (50 pcs ROSE only): 25 deep precision strike, 25 shallow precision strike
Jf-17s pre Blk-III(~135pcs): 20 Maritime strike, 20 A2A via SD-10, 60 shallow precision strike via takbir series.
F-16: 100 A2A via Aim-120c5
J-10s: 50 A2A via Pl-15

Now how do we read this data, notice, total sorties remain the same pre and post, overall and as well as in each area of requirement. Now has the J-10 replaced the Mirage? Thats a subjective one, 36 J-10s have come in and 40 odd Mirages have gone out so it is a replacement in one way. However, the roles of those retired Mirages have been taken over by Jf-17s which do it equally well (Shallow precision strike), while the Jf-17 fleet is now doing only 20 air-to-air sorties compared to the 50 before because of this additional A2G responsibilities. The lost A2A sorties is picked up by J-10s, which do it better with their Pl-15s. So in terms of responsibilities the J-10 repalced Jf-17s.

BeforeAfter
Sorties
PcsSorties/pcSortiesPcsSorties
By Platform
Mirages100100150501
Jf-171001360.731001360.73
F-16100751.33100751.33
J-1050361.39
Total300300

And here it is by type of role, the important thing is the total remains same and (what is not visible in the table) some roles are being done better than before. (Feel free to fill in the body of the table, but thats not the important part)
BeforeAfter
Sorties
PcsSorties/pcSortiesPcsSorties
By Role
Deep Precision Strike
Shallow Precision Strike
Maritime Strike
A2A
Total300300

Now, here is the punch line for fan boys, (I am not patronizing you but want my fellow country-men to increase in their sophistication of analysis). Keeping this sort of template in mind, how do you think things minute details (like the ground clearance that some have pointed out already, e.g. @JamD) will impact the capability matrix? What about when you increase the level of detail in the capability matrix ? Not all A2A missions are created equal etc.
 
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Nomad40

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J-10 C are done deal. I was saying it for some time that J-10 C are ideal replacement for Mirages. I really hopes Pakistan takes the J-10 C order to close to 100 if not more. As for the jet from west. That until deal is finalized and the jet lands in Pakistan nothing can be said with full surety.

@Blacklight
J10 is not an Ideal Replacement for Mirage, The Ideal Replacement for a Mirage is another Mirage besides PAF already has the "Replacement of the Mirage" and are Happy with it.
 

GriffinsRule

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Thank you for your post. I am obliged to then ask what really is the need for J10 if at all that we are in so much of A HURRY TO induct it. To date other than possible pressure re induction of PL15s and AESA radar, and capacity build up, I have not had a satisfactory answer. The former I can understand to some extent, the later I do not. It seems it is too much expense for a few fighters which can be inducted once the block 3 comes on line.
Regards
There is no pressing need for it. Block 3 will be more than enough for A2A and some A2G with guided weapons while Mirage Vs will fill their strike role. JF-17 will ideally replace both F-7s as well as Mirage 3s.
For the strike roles AZM should be the replacement for Mirages. They will stay in service for another 10-15 yrs and PAF can support Vs by retiring IIIs and using them as spare resources as well.
 

Silicon0000

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Thank you for your post. I am obliged to then ask what really is the need for J10 if at all that we are in so much of A HURRY TO induct it. To date other than possible pressure re induction of PL15s and AESA radar, and capacity build up, I have not had a satisfactory answer. The former I can understand to some extent, the later I do not. It seems it is too much expense for a few fighters which can be inducted once the block 3 comes on line.
Regards

A hurry to induct J10 is Because we are very much behind schedule at somewhere (not sure it's AZM or Block-3 or something else).
 

Bilal.

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All these Mirage is irreplaceable crowd reminds me of JF17 does not require a two seater version kumbaya.

If and when the Mirage squadrons get “re-equiped” (since mirages cannot be “replaced” not the least by J10). Suddenly the same crowd will become the biggest proponent of the idea and we will wonder who was saying what…
 

Trailer23

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There is no pressing need for it.
Bhai, I honestly don't know how long we can go on by saying that (over & over). Yeah, we (the PAF) can hold our ground - but they (India) are increasing in number & we're still waiting for a jet which a carbon copy of its predecessor with a lil' (+/-). The Block III is gonna be the same length, have the same Vertical Stabilizer, the same number of Hard Points.

I still have yet to understand how persons in the past have made the statement that the J-10 doesn't bring anything new that the JF-17 doesn't already. The J-10C currently excels in pretty much everything that I have compared to in Specs. In Boxing-terms, they are in two very different weight-class.

Honestly, some of us won't be around to witness AZM. And here were talking about it replacing a jet that celebrated 50 Years a couple of years back.

Anyways, you've given an opinion. I would have been favor for more F-16's, but we are far from that reality - so i'll take anything that can produce a similar hard punch.
 

iLION12345_1

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J10 is not an Ideal Replacement for Mirage, The Ideal Replacement for a Mirage is another Mirage besides PAF already has the "Replacement of the Mirage" and are Happy with it.
Kindly tell us what this replacement is and how PAF has been able to procure this other “mirage.”
There is no pressing need for it. Block 3 will be more than enough for A2A and some A2G with guided weapons while Mirage Vs will fill their strike role. JF-17 will ideally replace both F-7s as well as Mirage 3s.
For the strike roles AZM should be the replacement for Mirages. They will stay in service for another 10-15 yrs and PAF can support Vs by retiring IIIs and using them as spare resources as well.
Right, but what will replace the Mirages that are being retired to be cannibalized (if they can even be cannibalized due to excessive use on them). The mirages simply cannot serve for another 10 to 15 years, especially not all of them and the ones without upgrades, they are simply obsolete and will become hazards before that time period. Azm is too far away, I don’t know why everyone thinks 15 years is such a short period of time. (I would still say 15+ Because of training, delays and building up numbers). And that’s the most ideal case (I.e No delays in Azm program), if there’s any delays then PAF will be just a sitting duck. PAF would much rather change its operating procedures and tactics with J-10Cs than fly with obsolete mirages for another 2 decades. People are highly overestimating the capabilities and especially the strike capabilities of Mirages. At the end of the day, PAF is flying them out of necessity, otherwise why would they be flying a nearly 60 year old aircraft today.

JF-17s aren’t coming fast enough, they need to replace F7PG first, of which there are nearly 60, and the current order for Block 3 is only 30. They also don’t have nearly enough range to cover for the loss of strike capability that the retiring mirages will leave behind. You also can’t have them all serving dual roles (A2G and A2A).

Another thing is; As was stated above by another member, the hole in PAF is F-16 sized, not Mirage of JF-17 sized, that’s why J-10Cs are being bought (or to put it differently, because PAF can’t get more F-16s). We are here arguing about strike aircraft while India has procured Rafales which can basically out-range any PAF aircraft with Meteor (granted The SU-30 could too on paper and we all know how that turned out…). But the PAF wants to maintain first shoot capability, the J-10C can ensure that. The mirages or the current F-16s cannot. At the same time the J-10C is good enough to cover for the strike capabilities of stock mirages, which JF-17 may or may not be able to do.

PAF has little options. As always. They’re trying to Do the best they can with what they have.

PS: I’m still absolutely not saying all the mirages are being retired, that’s simply impossible. The ROSE mirages are very likely staying till Azm. People are going for two extremes. Some think mirage is going altogether and some think it’s going nowhere. The gap between a ROSE mirage and an old mirage is massive. PAF would lose absolutely nothing replacing those old mirages and it might be able to cannibalize them to keep the better mirages in service. Because as we know, those EAF mirages never came, so where do we think the spares for these things are gonna come from in 5, 10, 15 years?
Lastly, even with J-10C, the stock mirages are absolutely staying in service for at least 3-5 more years. Because 50 J-10C aren’t showing up overnight, they will come slowly, then PAF will need to train and familiarize before they can be deployed. The mirages naturally need to be retired. Now is better than in 15 years when they become F7Ps, 4 crashes every year or some BS.
 
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Nomad40

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Kindly tell us what this replacement is and how PAF has been able to procure this other “mirage.”

Right, but what will replace the Mirages that are being retired to be cannibalized (if they can even be cannibalized due to excessive use on them). The mirages simply cannot serve for another 10 to 15 years, especially not all of them and the ones without upgrades, they are simply obsolete and will become hazards before that time period. Azm is too far away, I don’t know why everyone thinks 15 years is such a short period of time. (I would still say 15+ Because of training, delays and building up numbers). And that’s the most ideal case (I.e No delays in Azm program), if there’s any delays then PAF will be just a sitting duck. PAF would much rather change its operating procedures and tactics with J-10Cs than fly with obsolete mirages for another 2 decades. People are highly overestimating the capabilities and especially the strike capabilities of Mirages. At the end of the day, PAF is flying them out of necessity, otherwise why would they be flying a nearly 60 year old aircraft today.

JF-17s aren’t coming fast enough, they need to replace F7PG first, of which there are nearly 60, and the current order for Block 3 is only 30. They also don’t have nearly enough range to cover for the loss of strike capability that the retiring mirages will leave behind. You also can’t have them all serving dual roles (A2G and A2A).

Another thing is; As was stated above by another member, the hole in PAF is F-16 sized, not Mirage of JF-17 sized, that’s why J-10Cs are being bought (or to put it differently, because PAF can’t get more F-16s). We are here arguing about strike aircraft while India has procured Rafales which can basically out-range any PAF aircraft with Meteor (granted The SU-30 could too on paper and we all know how that turned out…). But the PAF wants to maintain first shoot capability, the J-10C can ensure that. The mirages or the current F-16s cannot. At the same time the J-10C is good enough to cover for the strike capabilities of stock mirages, which JF-17 may or may not be able to do.

PAF has little options. As always. They’re trying to Do the best they can with what they have.

PS: I’m still absolutely not saying all the mirages are being retired, that’s simply impossible. The ROSE mirages are very likely staying till Azm. People are going for two extremes. Some think mirage is going altogether and some think it’s going nowhere. The gap between a ROSE mirage and an old mirage is massive. PAF would lose absolutely nothing replacing those old mirages and it might be able to cannibalize them to keep the better mirages in service. Because as we know, those EAF mirages never came, so where do we think the spares for these things are gonna come from in 5, 10, 15 years?
Lastly, even with J-10C, the stock mirages are absolutely staying in service for at least 3-5 more years. Because 50 J-10C aren’t showing up overnight, they will come slowly, then PAF will need to train and familiarize before they can be deployed. The mirages naturally need to be retired. Now is better than in 15 years when they become F7Ps, 4 crashes every year or some BS.
They build it!
 

Akh1112

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In my opinion the J-10 is NOT a replacement for the Mirages for the following reasons:
1. The Mirages are PAF's strike element, capable of carrying various SOWs. To the best of my knowledge we are not buying the various SOWs that come with the J-10 - we have heard a lot about PL-15's and AESA's.
2. Azm is envisioned as a heavy-weight strike aircraft - and in my opinion will be the replacement to the Mirages.
3. There's an F-16 shaped gap in PAF's numbers - so IMHO the J10s are coming to augment the F16s.

That being said aircraft don't HAVE to replace another aircraft one-to-one so saying x is a replacement for y is always just a rough statement.
Absolutely agreed. IMO j10s will compliment them and not replace. The only true replacement will be azm.
 

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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In my opinion the J-10 is NOT a replacement for the Mirages for the following reasons:
1. The Mirages are PAF's strike element, capable of carrying various SOWs. To the best of my knowledge we are not buying the various SOWs that come with the J-10 - we have heard a lot about PL-15's and AESA's.
2. Azm is envisioned as a heavy-weight strike aircraft - and in my opinion will be the replacement to the Mirages.
3. There's an F-16 shaped gap in PAF's numbers - so IMHO the J10s are coming to augment the F16s.

That being said aircraft don't HAVE to replace another aircraft one-to-one so saying x is a replacement for y is always just a rough statement.
Absolutely agreed. IMO j10s will compliment them and not replace. The only true replacement will be azm.
Spot on.

The PAF will not use the J-10CE for strike.

Rather, the J-10CE will shore up our air-to-air capabilities from an offensive standpoint. The way we used the F-16s in Swift Retort, the PAF needs more of that type of fighter to build up its offensive air capability.

As the PAF cannot get F-16s, the PAF sees the J-10CE as the next best option.

So, in future Swift Retort-type scenarios, the PAF will send Mirages and JF-17s to carry SOWs and PGBs, while the F-16 and J-10CE interdict enemy fighters. The PAF is certainly investing in SOW for the JF-17 -- e.g., REK-III and, potentially, the Ra'ad 2. But the JF-17 will share the attack role with the Mirages.

In the future, the PAF would want an incredibly strong offensive capability through a combination of J-10CE and AZM. The two would operate together. That said, AZM would likely be a multi-role asset too, especially for the maritime ops environment (where its size will help for range and endurance).

IMO, the PAF's force goal is likely 90+ AZM and 150 J-10CE.

I know it sounds like a lot of J-10CEs, but remember, the PAF (on paper) wanted 150 F-16s.

Prior to the F-16s, the PAF wanted 110 A-7 Corsair IIs, but squarely for the attack role. The U.S. said no because (1) it wanted to scuttle our nuclear program and (2) the risk of the PAF using the A-7 as a nuclear delivery platform. If not for a lack of cash, the PAF might have wanted both the F-16 and A-7 for a killer offensive combination.

The AZM and J-10CE combo would echo that original idea.
 
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Nomad40

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All these Mirage is irreplaceable crowd reminds me of JF17 does not require a two seater version kumbaya.

If and when the Mirage squadrons get “re-equiped” (since mirages cannot be “replaced” not the least by J10). Suddenly the same crowd will become the biggest proponent of the idea and we will wonder who was saying what…
Ah I see, I dont think any one has said that the Mirage is Irreplaceable at least I yet have to come across such a statement but the fact is that PDF knows little about the Mirage and the Weapons deployed by the Mirage are strictly built around the Mirage hence the only proper replacement for the Mirage is another Mirage because that is how the Pakistan Air force Operates.
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I have said the above on a few occasions, If your post/comment was indicative towards me then my friend at least have the heart to mention my name.
 

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