This is not insider news or anything, but it is more than likely that all 100 will be J-10C, Mirages are replaced by J-10C with some additional work load, older F-16's and JF-17 block I, II will take point defense, cap role to replace F-7.
New fighter for PAF Doctrine?
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All of this is true, but he also wanted to start war with Iran, go after Cuba and may be Venezuela. He just didnt get chance to unleash his evils.
Every single one is operational, except for those which are already used. They go through regular service protocols.
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HRK
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wrong info and clarified number of times
GriffinsRule
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Single sear Mirages will be replaced based on their airframe life for sure. We will try to keep all dual-seat versions operational for as long as possible as those are precious few for training and other specialized roles. Good thing is the Mirage V DDs from Libya have more than half of their airframe life left, and same with the Lebanese Mirage III ELs (22 Sqn I think). I expect to see this, along with the specialized strike squadrons using Mirage V EFs to be in service for another 10-15 years at least.
That leaves the Mirage III EA (O), the ex-Australian birds. These, along with the No.22 squadron birds are interceptors and not ground attack variants. These aircraft, the original ROSE with the Grifo 3 radars, are as old as PAF's jets too, built in the late 60s through early 70s. In my opinion, these would be the first candidates to go as their primary air-air role can very easily be taken over by the JF-17, even by the older blocks.
The oldest PAF Mirages of the bunch are then the Mirage V PAs, which were acquired in 1970. I am guessing only half of the original 28 are on hand, if not less, so that is 1 squadron. Mirage V PA2/3 are 10 years younger than the prior ones, and also have a specialized anti-shipping role. Of the original 30, not sure how many are in service but probably only half of them. But since neither of these two variants seem to have been through ROSE upgrades and it will just depend on how long we want this secondary strike capability, I would expect the PAs to go first followed by PA2/3s.
Retired aircraft from these 3 squadrons will keep the other 3 alive and kicking for another decade and more easily, and buying PAF time to replace them in the 2035ish timeframe.
Bilal Biden is bringing another 2 trillion $$ stimulus package with buy American first slogan and forcing Canada to be part with it if this slogan continues I believe there is something for Pakistan and PAF as Dr Moeed said word partnership in defence sector along economic very likely US offers Pak a package of Arms procurement as you mentioned replacing old vipers with new and V for at least our 18 blk52 s American do this if you remember in 2008 they bought old cars and force ppl to buy new GM and Ford Democrats have majority in both house won't be issue to pass plus Pak has friends in GOP like Graham even Mich Macconil
Last US will stick to Afghanistan peace deal even they reviewing at the moment reason Trump didn't let Biden team access to dacuments and even not let them meet Gen Scott Miller.
Simpon also predict ivanka Trump as president by the way she running for senat from Florida
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Reichmarshal
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I believe that PAF crews have been working on the j10 in china and when the ac enters service in the PAF it will "hit the ground running".
SQ8
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While nowhere close to a ASR - what is good to look at is how this decision for a J-10CE should be approached
1. Capability Discussion.
Pakistan Air Force concept of operations defined in X requires that it retains the capability to attack keystone Indian defense targets including but not limited to airfields, C4I nodes, ADGE and mobility infrastructure with a depth of up to 800nm from the International border. The Indian military is able to exploit its inherent depth advantage to use offensive assets from relative safety and protect them from PAF offensive reach.
The current PAF offensive fleet comprised of F-16 A/B MLU & F-16 C/D, JF-17, M3/5 are incapable of providing effective strike capability against these targets with a guaranteed mission success rate of 85%. Although it has high survivability against the Indian ADGE, the F-16 fleet’s maximum range on a M-L-L-H mission is limited to 500nm with maximum A2G weapons range of 10nm from altitude. Both the Mirage & JF-17 are capable of standoff weapons carriage but require refueling support that is not possible in contested environment. The Mirage strike element is also facing program delays along with most of the fleet (60nos) facing age and capability ceilings that will lead to an increase in the operational gap.
In addition, introduction of new capabilities within the IAF in terms of strike and air superiority asserts such as the Rafale require a system capable of operating in a high 4.5 gen++ aircraft, AD and EW threat environment with the ability to successfully complete mission requirements along with a reasonably high sortie generation rate with a high MTBO and/or high sustainable logistics. This system needs to include at the minimum 600nm Strike mission capability in hi-lo-lo-hi configuration with refueling support, 3rd Gen AESA radar, Phased Array EW systems, Robust Airborne SDR compatible with Pakistan Army systems along with associated weaponry to include BVRAAM, HOB SRAAM and Stand-off weapons with range >200nm.
To close this gap the PAF requires that a weapons system isoperational within the 2023-26 timeframe that meets the requirements laid out previously. Study group has identified purchase of Chengdu J-10CE aircraft (60 Nos) to meet these requirements – RFI has been submitted previously for J-10CE in 2016 , J-10B (2012) and J-10A(2005) – the primary contractor for this procurement will be CATIC & PAC along with _________________.
2. Analysis of Alternatives.
The following alternatives were studied to meet the primary requirements:
A. Purchase F-16V: Earlier efforts negotiated through US Mil Attaché, US Embassy Washington, Mil Attache, Ambassador and contact with CJSC, CAS on procurement of F-16V (36Nos) , V Upgrade kits for F-16C/D(36 Nos) have faced approval and financing obstacles through US State Dept and Congress. Conditional on approval of FMSfor program – Unit cost F-16V $90 million – Upgrade kit cost $30 million, Support, Spares cost $140 million –Request for 100 AIM-120 C 7/8 $240MM, 125 AIM-9X Block-II $160M
PAF Training cost - $30
Program total $4.95B – Expected deliveries 2023-2028
Program financing request to be covered $1.3B through FMF – remaining to paid over FY2021-2030.
Total lifecycle cost lower than pure J-10CE purchase due to familiarity with platform and existing training program.
B. Combination small purchase F-16V + JF-17 Block-III: Purchase F-16V(18Nos) and additional JF-17 Block-III & BIV units. Like option B, with JF-17 Block-III purchase. Program cost $3.0B – FMF and CATIC Finance.
Program does not provide required operational deep strike capability – must be augmented by additional JF-23 Units.
C. Combination small purchase F-16V + J-10CE: Purchase F-16V(18Nos) and J-10CE(36 Nos)
Smaller purchase with additional training costs not specified for J-10CE units but provides fleet diversity.
Program cost $5.0 B – FMF and CATIC Finance.
3. Concept of Operations Summary.
The primary focus is closing PAF gap within STRIKE, Interdiction, OCA Strike,BAI,, SEAD Strike, TARCAP and bolster existing capability with BARCAP,Escort, Sweep and DCA. The additional capabilities of the J-10CE platform when coupled with interoperability will provide effective counter to IAF ADGE and Intercept capability in Strike missions and allow local air superiority to be established during ingress to and egress from targets. Replacement of No’s 7,8 and raising of No.10 sq at will create potent strike and Air Superiority capability along with increasing operational status of PAF Bholari.
Interoperability with JF-17, ZDK and SAAB assets along with weapons suite addition of H-4, RD-2, REK and Project AR systems will allow full stand off suite.
4. Threat Summary.
IAF Orbat:
Indian air +force primary asset is Su-30MKI
Crew: 2
Empty weight: 18,400 kg (40,565 lb)
Gross weight: 26,090 kg (57,519 lb) (typical mission weight)
Max takeoff weight: 38,800 kg (85,539 lb)
Powerplant: 2 × Lyulka AL-31FP afterburning turbofan engines, 123 kN (28,000 lbf) with afterburner
N011M Bars ( 15 tracked and 4 engaged simultaneously, 400Km search range, 200km track range, 60km rear tracking) , EL/M-8222
272 Nos - 60% Serviceability
Mig-29UPG
Crew: 1
Empty weight: 11,000 kg (24,251 lb)
Gross weight: 14,900 kg (32,849 lb)
Max takeoff weight: 18,000 kg (39,683 lb)
Powerplant: 2 × Klimov RD-33 afterburning turbofan engines, 81.59 kN (18,340 lbf) with afterburner
Zhuk-AME – 260km Search – 150 STT, D-29 EW
65 Nos – 50% Serviceability
Dassault Rafale
Crew: 1 or 2
Empty weight:
9,850 kilograms (21,720 lb) (C)[69][305]
Gross weight: 15,000 kg (33,069 lb)
Max takeoff weight: 24,500 kg (54,013 lb)
Powerplant: 2 × Snecma M88-4e turbofans, 50.04 kN (11,250 lbf) thrust each [309] dry, 75 kN (17,000 lbf) with afterburner
RBE2-AA 300km Search, 240 TWS for 40, engage 4. SPECTRA suite
90% Serviceability
Mirage 2000I
Crew: 1/2
Empty weight: 7,500 kg (16,535 lb)
Gross weight: 13,800 kg (30,424 lb)
Max takeoff weight: 17,000 kg (37,479 lb)
Powerplant: 1 × SNECMA M53-P2 afterburning turbofan engine, 64.3 kN(14,500 lbf) thrust dry, 95.1 kN (21,400 lbf) with afterburner
RDY-2 160km Search, 120 STT, 100TWS track 24 engage 4.
85% Serviceability
Above key threats require PAF component to be able to engage and outrange weapons engagement capability with datalinkedand passive engagement capability.
Remaining IAF force is deemed obsolete or not focused as A2A threat for J-10CE.
Indian ADGE :
Spyder SAM – 18 Systems focused on Base Air DefenceZone/Centre (BADZ/BADC).
Akash – 8 Sq – 6 Battery per sq. (VAs/VPs).
MRSAM – 2sq . (VAs/VPs).
Requires J-10CE to adopt additional EW capability and mating with CM-102 system.
5. Program Summary:
6. Assets Required to Achieve Initial Operational Capability (IOC
7. Schedule and IOC/Full Operational Capability (FOC) Definitions.
8. Other Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and Education, Personnel and Facilities
Onboarding of system will involve Ops, Engineering & Training commands to commit significant resources. Initial Instructor training to be carried out in Jiugucheng and CAC, engineering training to focus at CAC. Training curriculum to be developed at Sargodha –
J-10CE Project lead personnel to be selected prior to program start.
Total timeframe for completion of IP training is 13 months.
PL-15 missiles are integrated at Depot level maintenance and PL-10B induction costs can be offset with JF-17 BIII.
9. Program Affordability.
J-10CE
Length: 16.9 m
Wingspan: 9.7 m
Height: 5.7 m
Max Mach Number: 1.8
A/A Combat Radius 1,240 km/2,600 km (Air-to-Air Refueling)
Max. Ferry Range: 2,950 km
Empty weight: 9,000 kg (19,842 lb)
Gross weight: 13,500 kg (29,762 lb)
Max takeoff weight: 23,000 kg (50,706 lb)
WS-10A 80KN Dry, 130 KN Wet
Radar: AESA
Unit Cost: $60MM – $3.6B
Weapons Complex – $400M
PL-15, PL-10B, LS-6
Training & Spares: $600M
Total Program Cost: $4.6B
CATIC Finance 2021-38 -
Total Ownership cost: $6B
@Bilal Khan (Quwa) , I leave the blanks to you .. but the goal is to highlight the total omission/disconnect of program costs vs requirements
1. Capability Discussion.
Pakistan Air Force concept of operations defined in X requires that it retains the capability to attack keystone Indian defense targets including but not limited to airfields, C4I nodes, ADGE and mobility infrastructure with a depth of up to 800nm from the International border. The Indian military is able to exploit its inherent depth advantage to use offensive assets from relative safety and protect them from PAF offensive reach.
The current PAF offensive fleet comprised of F-16 A/B MLU & F-16 C/D, JF-17, M3/5 are incapable of providing effective strike capability against these targets with a guaranteed mission success rate of 85%. Although it has high survivability against the Indian ADGE, the F-16 fleet’s maximum range on a M-L-L-H mission is limited to 500nm with maximum A2G weapons range of 10nm from altitude. Both the Mirage & JF-17 are capable of standoff weapons carriage but require refueling support that is not possible in contested environment. The Mirage strike element is also facing program delays along with most of the fleet (60nos) facing age and capability ceilings that will lead to an increase in the operational gap.
In addition, introduction of new capabilities within the IAF in terms of strike and air superiority asserts such as the Rafale require a system capable of operating in a high 4.5 gen++ aircraft, AD and EW threat environment with the ability to successfully complete mission requirements along with a reasonably high sortie generation rate with a high MTBO and/or high sustainable logistics. This system needs to include at the minimum 600nm Strike mission capability in hi-lo-lo-hi configuration with refueling support, 3rd Gen AESA radar, Phased Array EW systems, Robust Airborne SDR compatible with Pakistan Army systems along with associated weaponry to include BVRAAM, HOB SRAAM and Stand-off weapons with range >200nm.
To close this gap the PAF requires that a weapons system isoperational within the 2023-26 timeframe that meets the requirements laid out previously. Study group has identified purchase of Chengdu J-10CE aircraft (60 Nos) to meet these requirements – RFI has been submitted previously for J-10CE in 2016 , J-10B (2012) and J-10A(2005) – the primary contractor for this procurement will be CATIC & PAC along with _________________.
2. Analysis of Alternatives.
The following alternatives were studied to meet the primary requirements:
A. Purchase F-16V: Earlier efforts negotiated through US Mil Attaché, US Embassy Washington, Mil Attache, Ambassador and contact with CJSC, CAS on procurement of F-16V (36Nos) , V Upgrade kits for F-16C/D(36 Nos) have faced approval and financing obstacles through US State Dept and Congress. Conditional on approval of FMSfor program – Unit cost F-16V $90 million – Upgrade kit cost $30 million, Support, Spares cost $140 million –Request for 100 AIM-120 C 7/8 $240MM, 125 AIM-9X Block-II $160M
PAF Training cost - $30
Program total $4.95B – Expected deliveries 2023-2028
Program financing request to be covered $1.3B through FMF – remaining to paid over FY2021-2030.
Total lifecycle cost lower than pure J-10CE purchase due to familiarity with platform and existing training program.
B. Combination small purchase F-16V + JF-17 Block-III: Purchase F-16V(18Nos) and additional JF-17 Block-III & BIV units. Like option B, with JF-17 Block-III purchase. Program cost $3.0B – FMF and CATIC Finance.
Program does not provide required operational deep strike capability – must be augmented by additional JF-23 Units.
C. Combination small purchase F-16V + J-10CE: Purchase F-16V(18Nos) and J-10CE(36 Nos)
Smaller purchase with additional training costs not specified for J-10CE units but provides fleet diversity.
Program cost $5.0 B – FMF and CATIC Finance.
3. Concept of Operations Summary.
The primary focus is closing PAF gap within STRIKE, Interdiction, OCA Strike,BAI,, SEAD Strike, TARCAP and bolster existing capability with BARCAP,Escort, Sweep and DCA. The additional capabilities of the J-10CE platform when coupled with interoperability will provide effective counter to IAF ADGE and Intercept capability in Strike missions and allow local air superiority to be established during ingress to and egress from targets. Replacement of No’s 7,8 and raising of No.10 sq at will create potent strike and Air Superiority capability along with increasing operational status of PAF Bholari.
Interoperability with JF-17, ZDK and SAAB assets along with weapons suite addition of H-4, RD-2, REK and Project AR systems will allow full stand off suite.
4. Threat Summary.
IAF Orbat:
Indian air +force primary asset is Su-30MKI
Crew: 2
Empty weight: 18,400 kg (40,565 lb)
Gross weight: 26,090 kg (57,519 lb) (typical mission weight)
Max takeoff weight: 38,800 kg (85,539 lb)
Powerplant: 2 × Lyulka AL-31FP afterburning turbofan engines, 123 kN (28,000 lbf) with afterburner
N011M Bars ( 15 tracked and 4 engaged simultaneously, 400Km search range, 200km track range, 60km rear tracking) , EL/M-8222
272 Nos - 60% Serviceability
Mig-29UPG
Crew: 1
Empty weight: 11,000 kg (24,251 lb)
Gross weight: 14,900 kg (32,849 lb)
Max takeoff weight: 18,000 kg (39,683 lb)
Powerplant: 2 × Klimov RD-33 afterburning turbofan engines, 81.59 kN (18,340 lbf) with afterburner
Zhuk-AME – 260km Search – 150 STT, D-29 EW
65 Nos – 50% Serviceability
Dassault Rafale
Crew: 1 or 2
Empty weight:
9,850 kilograms (21,720 lb) (C)[69][305]
Gross weight: 15,000 kg (33,069 lb)
Max takeoff weight: 24,500 kg (54,013 lb)
Powerplant: 2 × Snecma M88-4e turbofans, 50.04 kN (11,250 lbf) thrust each [309] dry, 75 kN (17,000 lbf) with afterburner
RBE2-AA 300km Search, 240 TWS for 40, engage 4. SPECTRA suite
90% Serviceability
Mirage 2000I
Crew: 1/2
Empty weight: 7,500 kg (16,535 lb)
Gross weight: 13,800 kg (30,424 lb)
Max takeoff weight: 17,000 kg (37,479 lb)
Powerplant: 1 × SNECMA M53-P2 afterburning turbofan engine, 64.3 kN(14,500 lbf) thrust dry, 95.1 kN (21,400 lbf) with afterburner
RDY-2 160km Search, 120 STT, 100TWS track 24 engage 4.
85% Serviceability
Above key threats require PAF component to be able to engage and outrange weapons engagement capability with datalinkedand passive engagement capability.
Remaining IAF force is deemed obsolete or not focused as A2A threat for J-10CE.
Indian ADGE :
Spyder SAM – 18 Systems focused on Base Air DefenceZone/Centre (BADZ/BADC).
Akash – 8 Sq – 6 Battery per sq. (VAs/VPs).
MRSAM – 2sq . (VAs/VPs).
Requires J-10CE to adopt additional EW capability and mating with CM-102 system.
5. Program Summary:
6. Assets Required to Achieve Initial Operational Capability (IOC
7. Schedule and IOC/Full Operational Capability (FOC) Definitions.
8. Other Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and Education, Personnel and Facilities
Onboarding of system will involve Ops, Engineering & Training commands to commit significant resources. Initial Instructor training to be carried out in Jiugucheng and CAC, engineering training to focus at CAC. Training curriculum to be developed at Sargodha –
J-10CE Project lead personnel to be selected prior to program start.
Total timeframe for completion of IP training is 13 months.
PL-15 missiles are integrated at Depot level maintenance and PL-10B induction costs can be offset with JF-17 BIII.
9. Program Affordability.
J-10CE
Length: 16.9 m
Wingspan: 9.7 m
Height: 5.7 m
Max Mach Number: 1.8
A/A Combat Radius 1,240 km/2,600 km (Air-to-Air Refueling)
Max. Ferry Range: 2,950 km
Empty weight: 9,000 kg (19,842 lb)
Gross weight: 13,500 kg (29,762 lb)
Max takeoff weight: 23,000 kg (50,706 lb)
WS-10A 80KN Dry, 130 KN Wet
Radar: AESA
Unit Cost: $60MM – $3.6B
Weapons Complex – $400M
PL-15, PL-10B, LS-6
Training & Spares: $600M
Total Program Cost: $4.6B
CATIC Finance 2021-38 -
Total Ownership cost: $6B
@Bilal Khan (Quwa) , I leave the blanks to you .. but the goal is to highlight the total omission/disconnect of program costs vs requirements
Signalian
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For 8, 25 and 27, it has to be seen what weaponry is coming along with J-10 and which local weaponry will J-10 be carrying.
J-10 has been discussed many times but the discussion rarely goes towards the goodies J-10 will be carrying goodies like weapons, EW suite, different pods etc, which actually gives the aircraft its teeth.
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TsAr
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The reason for this is no one is particularly sure about the complete package at the moment.
Bilal Khan (Quwa)
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araz
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As long as we can integrate them on the JFT do we have to duplicate it by integrating them on J10 as well. What advantage does that bring us and at what cost? (I assume the integration will be done by the Chinese). If they come with other armaments will it complicate the supply chain? these are pertinent questions that need to be asked. The only way it might make sense is if all Chinese weaponry is also being fielded on the JFT.
Regards
raja786
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Who blinks first this game is been played for good over 30 years by Pakistan. Some lack of understanding and poor vision we are still maintaining the balance somehow, given the circumstances its well played. Last 30/35 years are our darkest years in history, one must bow to Almighty after so much plundering our defensive wall is intact.
Lessons learnt from time to time from Western countries should set our future goals, we shouldn't repeat our mistakes. I think people where matters know well and thats why we are hearing some good news.
We made a mistake but I think it will pay off in long run, matter-of-fact it is paying off(not going to spell it).
Waiting and learning for time to fulfill what was said and making an understanding who is working towards it, by knowingly or by fate. Some of you here doing the work but I dont know if you know.
Lessons learnt from time to time from Western countries should set our future goals, we shouldn't repeat our mistakes. I think people where matters know well and thats why we are hearing some good news.
We made a mistake but I think it will pay off in long run, matter-of-fact it is paying off(not going to spell it).
Waiting and learning for time to fulfill what was said and making an understanding who is working towards it, by knowingly or by fate. Some of you here doing the work but I dont know if you know.
SQ8
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And those costs will add into the price of the program - however, compared to the alternatives this may be offset by the capability they bring.
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