I have read those studies, but like they say, they are not the gospel truths, they have to make sense. I have consistently observed Pew being wrong on so many matters that I understand. I have been following population developments in South Asia for nearly 30 years, so rather then just provide my statements, I will provide rational for why I believe myself to be correct and Pew to be talk out of their organisational backside.
Population projections in essence are just about maths, that's, historical trends, present growth rate, and expected future growth, the last part is guess work, because it relies on population control polices, there implementations, the acceptance at social level, accurate reporting of such efforts and the list goes on, but you can also assess the future trends partly by looking at historical performance of population control policies in a country.
We are here to discuss, national figures, not regional figures, especially from tiny states, sticking to national figures makes sense because it is the overall population and percentage share that we are concerned with, so, lets ignore the regional example.
For sake of ease, where possible I will be rounding off to the nearest whole number.
India's first census after independence was in 1951, in that census India had a Muslim population 10% from a total population of 360 million. In the 2011 census, India had a Muslim population of 14.2% from a total population of 1210 million.
14.2 - 9.8 = 4.4 / 6 (decades) = 0.73
On average Muslim population has increased by 0.73 percentage points as a share of the total population. This during a period of explosive population growth, India has already reach near fertility replacement levels, meaning its population will stop growing over the next couple of decades, after the natural growth momentum also comes to a halt.
But, the leveling of growth is not just among Hindus or non-Muslims, India Muslims have also lower fertility rate then in the past and their population is also growing at a much slower rate then before, higher the then other groups, but still slowing fast, meaning their growth rate will also reach zero natural growth within next couple of decades, perhaps a decade slower then other groups.
On the basis of previous growth trajectory, lets assume India's Muslim population will stand at 15% in the next census, which is this year. so the growth of Muslim population as a share of overall population would have grown by 5% percentage points, from 10% to 15% in 70 years.
We have already established the growth trends were different in the previous decades and have already changed and are expected to come to a halt within the next 3 decades.
India's Muslim population at most will increase at the same percentage points as in the previous decades, so,
0.73 x 3 = 2.19 + 15 = 17.2% by 2051, by which India's population is sure to come to a halt, including its Muslims population growth, lets round that to 18%
you have stated that India's population will peak at 1650, that naturally means all groups within a country reach a peak, otherwise it would continue to grow.
18 / 1650 x 100 = 297 Million, lets assume a higher peak of 1800 million
18 / 1800 x 100 = 324 million <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
But if we follow the actual historical trends, then,
17.2 / 1800 x 100 = 309.6 million <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Peak Muslim Population in India
15% / 1360 x 100 = 204 million Muslims in India in 2021.
I think they created their figures after a drunk late night office party, No matter the reputation, what they say has to make sense, it does not make sense at all. at most Muslim population in India will peak around the figures I just provided above. we can see the success of population control polices in India, that cannot be ignored.
96% / 232 million x 100 = 223 million Muslims in Pakistan in 2021
212 increasing by 2.4%
.024 x 212 = 5 million x 4 = 20 million = 232 million in 2021, I have not taken into account accumulated growth.
Pakistan's first census after independence was also in 1951, the Muslims population was 97% from a population of 34 million, and in the last census in 2017, it is estimated to have a Muslim population of about 96% our of 212 Million. Yes, Muslim population decreased as a share of total population, non-Muslims are doing well after all, they just have a even higher birth rate.
Now, with Pakistan things get a bit tricky, because there have only been 2 censuses since 1981, in 1998 and 2017. Pakistan is known to have useless population control policies and measures.
Between 1981 and 1998 population increased by 59% from 84 million to 134 million over 17 years.
Between 1998 and 2017 population increased by 58% from 134 million to 212 million over 19 years. At an average annual growth rate of 2.4%.
Pakistan has experience a very similar and consistent growth rate from 1981 to 2017, that's a nearly 40 year period.
Now, lets assume a somewhat similar growth rather between 2017 and lets say 2035, I do not foresee any population planning program on the horizon, even if they start now, it takes time to get such a policy in place, get it approved and implemented, and more time still, before you start seeing results, so, I do not see radical changes around the corner.
2017 to 2035 is 18 years, lets assume a slightly slower increase lets say at 54%,
1.54 x 212 = 326 million, 313 million Muslims by 2035 and still growing like crazy in 2035.
Let us look at it from a different perspective,
One of the yard sticks used in population projections is the rule of 70, so a population growing at 1% will double in 70 years, at 2% at 35 years, so whatever the growth rate, you divide that by 70 and you get an estimated doubling time of that population.
If we take Pakistan's population growth at 2.4% in 2017,
70 / 2.4 = 29 years to double, so Pakistan's population of 212 million would reach 424 million by 2046,
96 / 424 x 100 = 407 million Muslims by 2046, by this time India's total and Muslim population would have stopped growing, with the Muslim share around 320 million, whereas, Pakistan's population would still most likely be growing.
This is the most basic but accurate representation I could present, so Pew's projections just do not make sense. Pakistan is highly likely to become the largest Muslim country in the world, over taking Indonesia around 2030 or so, and that position is not likely to change. Pakistan will remain the largest Muslim country in the world.
Pakistan's projections very much depend on how effective we are at organising an effective population control polices, but that is not in discussion here, we are discussion the size of Muslims populations. Pakistan's Muslim population became larger then India's sometime during the 1990s, and that gap has only, and will only increase with time. Indonesia's population is also slowing, so it is highly likely Pakistan will become the largest Muslim country in the world, by far. certainly far larger then India's Muslim population.
thought you might be interested in reading, or providing any feedback
Very informative thanks!