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Ministers celebrating $2.9bn exports but avoid reporting $7.85bn imports, trade deficit at about $5bn in moth of Nov 2021.

Desprado

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Even today after corona and high oil import price we are better than 2018 which pmln left.

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our remittance increases, tax collection increases, export increases. import is yet lower than pmln time and you are complaining.
91 billion rupee collected on Custom duties in Nov 2021. Do you remember when Imran Khan curse Isaq dar that is he is collecting tax all on import duties? Where is ethics and moral of Imran Khan now?


One way ethics or moral does not work Imran Khan him self does not have any moral or ethics otherwise he would never Shaukat Tarin a finance minster ,where he has Nab cases, Fake account case fraud of Silk Bank, 4 offshore companies and a fraud cause IHC.
 

Pakistan Ka Beta

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1465963957743669248

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1465939608835964933


Razak skip Import figure due to backlash. Some kids mods banned me when i said that PTI will change 70% of there budget and it is happening this week. PTI wanted to win election and do early election in 2022 that is why they did a deep Freeze IMF program, which backfired so bad that he entire budget has to changed and interest will hike to 11 to 12% in Dec.

Import 7.5 billion highest ever in Pakistan. Why PTI fans only post one side of Story. If Yothia say that import is increasing due to international prices than it also that export are increase due to that. PTI is munafiq party.
Import is increasing hence economy is drowning….Patwari logic :lol:
He keeps making things up completely ignoring the fact that we had highest oil prices in 5 years in November
@Desprado - govt is made of politicians, of course they are going to highlight success, and overlook failures.

However looking at import/exports as simple figures is disengenious.

If the export figures are improving then this is always a positive, it means we are making and selling things.

If the import figures are increasing then we need to look into what these figures consist of.
- Some imports are of oil/energy which is more expensive and we have no short/medium term control of. You have to accept that.
- Some imports may be materials or equipment to support industrialisation or economic growth. We should look to long term produce that internally, but not curb it short term.
- Some imports will be luxury goods or consumer items. These imports can be seen as a positive, it shows people have money to spend, but for a country with a CAD we need to be curbing these short term and focusing on import substitution on the medium/long term. If we didn't have a CAD then these imports wouldn't be such a bad thing.

We live in a democracy, don't expect honesty from politicians. We choose to have a system of governance which is built around a popularity contest judged by idiots and a population where 40% can't even read or write.
While the foundation of PMLN led government's economy was on imports. Imports and construction kept GDP growth rate high.
Well This year our CA deficit is high is not bcz of debt repaymenta bcz PTI managed to convert lots of short term debt to long term in first couple of years. Despite that debt repayment per year stand at 10 billion which are all short term debt like the ones we got from China 3 billion UAE 1.5 billion KSA 2 billion IMF repayments almost 5-6 billion in next 1-2 years.

This year our CA deficit is high bcz 1- Petro products Oil and LPG prices are sky rocketing 2- Edible oil prices are high 3- All consumer product prices are sky rocketing bcz of 1 and 2. All these 3 make up almost 25-30 billion of our import bill. Rest are associated with machinery imports which we simply cant get rid of if we want to give boost to export industry.

Let not forget Ishaq dollar left us with 20 billion in CA deficit and 40 billion in Trade deficit.
bro Khan sahab said this LOL
Desperado AKA Miriam Safdar


Islamabad, Pakistan – When the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party swept to power after general elections in 2013, chief among their promises was to turn around an economy in dire straits, revitalising growth and overcoming a chronic energy shortage that had crippled many industries.
The situation was, by any definition, dire.
Keep reading
Economic growth had dropped to just 3.5 percent, with foreign reserves dropping fast in the face of a huge import bill, and a balance of payments crisis looming.
As the PML-N took office, central bank foreign exchange reserves stood at $6.5bn, their lowest level in 10 years. Facing the possibility of default, by September the government had approached the International Monetary Fund (IMF), seeking a three-year $6.68bn programme to help stabilise the economy and introduce macroeconomic reforms.
It would be Pakistan’s 12th IMF programme in almost three decades, and came with conditions enforcing discipline on managing fiscal deficits and privatising state-owned entities, many of which were not fully met.
Five years on, the PML-N will tell you, Pakistan’s economic situation looks markedly rosier.
Helped by low international oil prices and boosted by the start of work on the $56bn China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), economic growth stands at a projected 5.79 percent, its highest level in 13 years, taking the gross domestic product to an estimated $297bn this year.
CPEC, an economic corridor project that links southwestern China to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan, has spurred huge spending on development projects, coming with $36bn in loans to construct a series of power plants across the country.
Some of those power plants have already begun to come online, bringing reductions to rolling power blackouts that have plagued the South Asian country for years.
The PML-N, in turn, is bullish, and feeling confident that they have delivered on their promises to turn Pakistan’s economy around.
“This is the highest growth rate in 15 years, and the highest in the manufacturing sector in 10 years,” Miftah Ismail, Pakistan’s outgoing finance minister, told Al Jazeera.
“We’ve brought in growth and stability to Pakistan, so that big promise that we made, that has actually happened.”
But not everything, analysts warn, is as rosy as it seems.
A Pakistan Navy soldier stands guard while a loaded Chinese ship prepares to depart, at Gwadar port [Muhammad Yousuf/AP Photo]
‘Unsustainable’ growth
“They have succeeded in restarting growth and […] in executing some mega projects, and in activating CPEC,” says Khurram Husain, an economic analyst and journalist. “But the manner in which they have done so has raised many questions.”
A major chunk of Pakistan’s economic growth, Hussain says, is led by consumption, most of it government spending on development projects, which raises questions of long-term sustainability.
“What is driving it is a sharp increase in development spending [by the government]. So that leaves a lot of people wondering what happens if the government is not able to sustain this level of development spending?”
Moreover, repeated government attempts to widen the country’s tax base has had only limited success, leading to a widening fiscal deficit, as the government continues pumping money into the economy.
The rise in consumption, Hussain points out, has not been accompanied by a rise in investment in the private sector, leading to a growth trajectory that may be inordinately dependent on the government.
“There have been various incentive schemes and packages, but the private sector says that they are losing their competitive edge in international markets due to a rising cost of doing business, including high energy prices, high transaction costs, and a poor state of infrastructure.”
In 2017, Pakistan ranked 147 out of 190 countries on the World Bank’s ‘Ease of Doing Business Index’, a metric that measures how conducive regulatory and infrastructure environments are to allowing private enterprise to flourish.
The challenges faced by industry have seen Pakistani exports drop from $25bn in 2013 to $22bn in 2017, according to central bank data, stretching Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves and putting further stress on the country’s current account deficit.
“To put the external sector in a more sustainable footing it will be important to address constraints to exports’ competitiveness, including an overvalued exchange rate, a weak investment environment and a trade policy that at times hurts rather than supports exports,” says Enrique Blanco Armos, the World Bank’s lead economist on Pakistan.
All of that means that there is a larger, familiar crisis on the horizon.
‘Beggars can’t be choosers’
In July, Pakistan’s central bank foreign reserves dropped sharply by $601.8m to just $9.6bn, which is enough to cover just two months of imports.
The fiscal deficit, meanwhile, has ballooned to 5.5 percent of GDP, from the targeted 4.1 percent, the central bank said on May 25.
The external current account deficit rose to $14bn in the first 10 months of the 2018 financial year, a 50 percent rise from the same period last year.
“[Pakistan’s] growth has been accompanied in the past 18 months with an increase in macroeconomic imbalances,” says the World Bank’s Armos. “These imbalances will need to be corrected […] we think that further adjustments will be needed to put the economy on a much stronger footing, narrowing fiscal deficits and a combination of policies to reduce the trade deficit.”
The outgoing government, however, said it was not worried.
“We are borrowing from the international market, and there is no difficulty in that, and we will be borrowing again,” said Ismail, the outgoing finance minister.
In May, days before its term was completed, the government announced it would be taking an additional loan of up to $2bn from Chinese lenders in order to avert a balance of payments crisis.
“We understand the importance of reserves and the importance of being liquid, even before the [loans] we took a currency devaluation in December and again in March,” Ismail told Al Jazeera, speaking before a further devaluation took place in June.
The PML-N says it will focus on increasing exports if it returns to power, but analysts warn, that it may not be enough.
“If the past is anything to go by, then the present appears to be taking us back towards the IMF,” says Hussain.
“This is how it has always worked, for the last 20 years we have seen this pattern. Reserves rise for a period, then they hit a peak, and then as they fall they do not autocorrect.”
Opposition leaders, too, have been pointing to rising debt levels as the government struggles to control macroeconomic imbalances as being of significant concern.
“It is pretty much in the same spot that we were five years ago, except this time as we get ready for a new bailout, we are starting with a current account deficit which is far bigger, and a significantly larger external debt,” said Asad Umar, of the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.
Umar’s PTI, led by cricketer-turned politician Imran Khan, has been tipped by many to replace the PML-N government, if it is able to displace the party from its stronghold of Punjab province. If that were to happen, would the PTI be open to going back to the IMF?
“We are burning cash much faster and the debt load is much bigger, and the danger is just as real as it was last time, except the odds are even worse,” he said.
“No option is off the table […] Beggars can’t be choosers, so we will have to look at all possible options.”
Asad Hashim is Al Jazeera’s Digital Correspondent in Pakistan. He tweets @AsadHashim.
Source: Al Jazeera
Even today after corona and high oil import price we are better than 2018 which pmln left.

View attachment 797975

View attachment 797977

our remittance increases, tax collection increases, export increases. import is yet lower than pmln time and you are complaining.
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Dr-who

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I wonder what kind of blind ppl we have.
If trade defecit is 5B, then wouldn't we even consider what remittance are and what would be the overall current account?
Has anyone considered what our tax revenues are?
Since GDP growth has gotten better I have noticed some segments don't ever mention GDP like they used to
 

Riz

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It is cancer same like Patwari. PMLN downfall was due to Patwari and PTI downfall will be due same Youthia. Both are same in a different manner.
Lol…wait for the next election , then i will tell u who will won the election on merit
 

Pandora

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I wonder what kind of blind ppl we have.
If trade defecit is 5B, then wouldn't we even consider what remittance are and what would be the overall current account?
Has anyone considered what our tax revenues are?
Since GDP growth has gotten better I have noticed some segments don't ever mention GDP like they used to

People conveniently mention Trade account and not Current Account. When someone wants to do propaganda or peddle a narrative that is how you do it. Once GDP gets around 5% all those who peddle narrative of putting restraint on Import will shrink GDP will have to slap themselves.
 

AZ1

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91 billion rupee collected on Custom duties in Nov 2021. Do you remember when Imran Khan curse Isaq dar that is he is collecting tax all on import duties? Where is ethics and moral of Imran Khan now?


One way ethics or moral does not work Imran Khan him self does not have any moral or ethics otherwise he would never Shaukat Tarin a finance minster ,where he has Nab cases, Fake account case fraud of Silk Bank, 4 offshore companies and a fraud cause IHC.
You keep crying and in future too all your predictions went to drain from stock market to IMF. Now keep making threads while we are getting better in exports, remittance, tax collection.

 

Desprado

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People conveniently mention Trade account and not Current Account. When someone wants to do propaganda or peddle a narrative that is how you do it. Once GDP gets around 5% all those who peddle narrative of putting restraint on Import will shrink GDP will have to slap themselves.
At end of the day CAD matter, which will be 2.5 billion dollar in this month of nov so it will be 7.6 billion in these 5 months alone.
You keep crying and in future too all your predictions went to drain from stock market to IMF. Now keep making threads while we are getting better in exports, remittance, tax collection.

Konsi prediction fail hoi. Quoting sath post karo bhai.
 

AZ1

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At end of the day CAD matter, which will be 2.5 billion dollar in this month of nov so it will be 7.6 billion in these 5 months alone.

Konsi prediction fail hoi. Quoting sath post karo bhai.
Lets start with stock market crash.

IMG_20211201_203919.png



While here is your so call future data analyst 100000 people data. you said 38,000 100% never happened.

IMG_20211201_220305.png
 
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Sal12

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People conveniently mention Trade account and not Current Account. When someone wants to do propaganda or peddle a narrative that is how you do it. Once GDP gets around 5% all those who peddle narrative of putting restraint on Import will shrink GDP will have to slap themselves.

PKR lost 15% of value against $ in last 6 months. So this 5% GDP growth rate will be in PKR not in $ and with more devaluation of PKR, Pak GDP would lose more in $.

Also imports are expensive because of higher prices of oil, commodities in international market. Same also applies on exports which has also become expensive. If Imports are somehow become cheaper and they are reduced in near future then same goes for Pak exports which will also be reduced and this will not change the overall sorry state of Pak economy.

Much of the blame for the current mess of economy goes to PMLN. But IK has failed too in improving the economy beside his failures in governance.
 

Pandora

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At end of the day CAD matter, which will be 2.5 billion dollar in this month of nov so it will be 7.6 billion in these 5 months alone.

Konsi prediction fail hoi. Quoting sath post karo bhai.

Yes that is a troubling sign even if it is a global phenomena we need to keep it below 11-12 billion at all costs. Our GDP growth will suffer but it is better than accepting horrid conditions of IMF. FYI if you look at CA trend it usually is high in early months of Financial year and tends to go down in second half bcz of higher exports as well as remittances. Lets see how it goes but govt had earlier projected to keep it under 9 billion which is no longer possible. IMF already flagged it to Pakistan so lower CA deficit is pretty much part of deal we are making with them.
 

Pandora

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PKR lost 15% of value against $ in last 6 months. So this 5% GDP growth rate will be in PKR not in $ and with more devaluation of PKR, Pak GDP would lose more in $.

Also imports are expensive because of higher prices of oil, commodities in international market. Same also applies on exports which has also become expensive. If Imports are somehow become cheaper and they are reduced in near future then same goes for Pak exports which will also be reduced and this will not change the overall sorry state of Pak economy.

Much of the blame for the current mess of economy goes to PMLN. But IK has failed too in improving the economy beside his failures in governance.
Not true if revnue growth is higher then it counter acts the effects of devaluation. We are already seeing 20-25% more revenue by FBR per month than predicted by govt. Also rupee will appreciate as soon as IMF programme is restarted by Feb next year. Over all it will not affect growth in dollar terms as well.
 

Desprado

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Not true if revnue growth is higher then it counter acts the effects of devaluation. We are already seeing 20-25% more revenue by FBR per month than predicted by govt. Also rupee will appreciate as soon as IMF programme is restarted by Feb next year. Over all it will not affect growth in dollar terms as well.
40% growth is due to custom duties. If you take custom duties out than pti performed far better in last FY and hafeez was best. Shaukat Tarin made PTI fool.
 

Pandora

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40% growth is due to custom duties. If you take custom duties out than pti performed far better in last FY and hafeez was best. Shaukat Tarin made PTI fool.

Hafeez and Shaukat Tareen are all same lot with same tactics to manage economy. TBH last financial years performance had less to do with performace of govt than low demand and consumption. Low oil prices also played a major role. Al though govt did manage to avoid a massive slump when you consider how almost all economies slipped deep into negative. This year its reverse consumption and demand came back with a vengence. Oil price sky rocketed almost doubled. LPG which was being sold around 11$ sky rocketed to 35$. Even hafeez couldn't have done any thing here. I doesnt matter which govt comes next they will have to impose some harsh economic conditions if economy is to be brought out of debt trap.
 

Sal12

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Not true if revnue growth is higher then it counter acts the effects of devaluation. We are already seeing 20-25% more revenue by FBR per month than predicted by govt. Also rupee will appreciate as soon as IMF programme is restarted by Feb next year. Over all it will not affect growth in dollar terms as well.

If PKR is depreciated 15% of its value that means GDP of Pak has dropped 15% straightaway in $. Pak needs to have 15% GDP growth rate this year to compensate this drop while we know GDP growth rare will be 5% max this year.

Pak GDP nominal is stuck between $200B and $300B in last 12 years and not crossing $300B benchmark only because PKR is depreciated regularly. In IK's govt, PKR has depreciated exponentially.
Hafeez and Shaukat Tareen are all same lot with same tactics to manage economy. TBH last financial years performance had less to do with performace of govt than low demand and consumption. Low oil prices also played a major role. Al though govt did manage to avoid a massive slump when you consider how almost all economies slipped deep into negative. This year its reverse consumption and demand came back with a vengence. Oil price sky rocketed almost doubled. LPG which was being sold around 11$ sky rocketed to 35$. Even hafeez couldn't have done any thing here. I doesnt matter which govt comes next they will have to impose some harsh economic conditions if economy is to be brought out of debt trap.

Hafeez was better than Shaukat. Shaukat is another version of Dar.
 

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