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Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

Jungibaaz

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It’s as we all expected that nothing ought to have caused a botched raid on the 26th, apart from human error and glitches in planning. And as expected our RoEs on day one would have always severely restricted the effectiveness of our interception of the strike package.

I agree with the members above, going forward, had the seminary have been hit successfully, we might have waited a little while longer to capitalise on the media angle of displaying an Indian war crime and gross display of barbarism. But when we do eventually strike back, at a minimum we’d have intended to inflict large numbers of casualties, strike a larger number of targets than we did on the 27th. And PAF would go in expecting the IAF to intercept aggressively with much relaxed RoEs. We have to factor in that in this scenario the IAF would be fully expecting a big response and would perhaps be better prepared than they were.

This whole scenario is way more dangerous than the actual one turned out. Neither side would be able to back down as easily as they did, even if escalation was somehow pre-emoted by international pressure and panic, the political situation in both countries would be conducive to another clash as soon as feasible.

The real question for us is. What would swift retort have looked like had the Indians actually murdered a seminary full of kids. The gloves would be off for sure. APS like national outrage, we’d all be baying for blood.
what stops India from optimally utilizing their current assets? Even removing Rafales from the next scenario, we are still at a disadvantageous position if they manage to effectively utilize their fighter aircrafts and tactics. And I am sure after the Feb 27th event, PAF will probably be in for a rude awakening in the next conflict.

The only advantage PAF has is superior tactics and strategy. But it is a function based on humans which are prone to make mistakes. I am just trying to remind everyone that the same Indian vulnerabilities that help us can be present at our end in the future too.

We can not afford to dismiss or remain oblivious to our limitations.
Rafales are very capable, and nothing even stopped the IAF from pulling a swift retort on us on the 26th. I think both sides proved that whoever is attacking, tends to do so in a way that maximises their own chances of success and plans to thwart any interception.

As long as we have the capacity to respond in turn, we can expect the Indians to perhaps proceed with caution. They should realise that limited strikes with no Pakistani response are not possible based on their size alone. They lack the substantial tech asymmetry required.
 
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PanzerKiel

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It’s as we all expected that nothing ought to have caused a botched raid on the 26th, apart from human error and glitches in planning. And as expected our RoEs on day one would have always severely restricted the effectiveness of our interception of the strike package.

I agree with the members above, going forward, had the seminary have been hit successfully, we might have waited a little while longer to capitalise on the media angle of displaying an Indian war crime and gross display of barbarism. But when we do eventually strike back, at a minimum we’d have intended to inflict large numbers of casualties, strike a larger number of targets than we did on the 27th. And PAF would go in expecting the IAF to intercept aggressively with much relaxed RoEs. We have to factor in that in this scenario the IAF would be fully expecting a big response and would perhaps be better prepared than they were.

This whole scenario is way more dangerous than the actual one turned out. Neither side would be able to back down as easily as they did, even if escalation was somehow pre-emoted by international pressure and panic, the political situation in both countries would be conducive to another clash as soon as feasible.

The real question for us is. What would swift retort have looked like had the Indians actually murdered a seminary full of kids. The gloves would be off for sure. APS like national outrage, we’d all be baying for blood.


Rafales are very capable, and nothing even stopped the IAF from pulling a swift retort on us on the 26th. I think both sides proved that whoever is attacking, tends to do so in a way that maximises their own chances of success and plans to thwart any interception.

As long as we have the capacity to respond in turn, we can expect the Indians to perhaps proceed with caution. They should realise that limited strikes with no Pakistani response are not possible based on their size alone. They lack the substantial tech asymmetry required.
.... Which means thar IAF as an organisation is unable to bring its quantitative superiority on the battlefield once it is needed....

By repeatedly quoting this big fact that PAF was able to muster so many aircraft against IAF in a selected geographical area {as though PAF has been unfair} , Indians are unknowingly accepting defeat and highlighting serious loopholes in their own
C4I systems
air defence
air intelligence
airfield locations and structuring
ADA strategies
all aspects of DCAOs
Lack of planning or unwillingness to mount a SAR operation in enemy territory to recover own downed pilot
unwillingness of their top leadership to retaliate to regain their lost pride being humbled by a much smaller PAF....
 

Mumm-Ra

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2. We use the seminary attack as legal justification to attack a major military site close to the LoC, perhaps try a Kargil 2.0, but without the silo-ed planning. We maintain a single-focus goal of capturing a 1-2 areas with immediate effect via a composite of a PAF strike package, sweeper unit, SSW (for CSAR), and Army units?

However, Option 2 then exposes us to a perpetual conflict as India will try reclaiming those sectors, unless they give up (unlikely) or the US intervenes. The latter scenario will likely see us surrender those locations, unless the US decides Kashmir isn't worth India's time and energy. In that respect, the US could tell India to back off and focus on China?
I think it’s unlikely that India will not try to get any captured territory. Our planners have made the same assumptions only to be proven wrong in all conflicts. In case we make any progress in Kashmir, they’ll open up fronts in Punjab and Sind and we would immediately switch to a defensive mode. We’ll stall any progress in Kashmir and then focus on defending in Punjab and Sind. The whole thing will end in another stalemate and possibly both countries will return to their old borders.

Or if we really want to stick it to them, instead of going for any area in the valley, why not go after Siachen? We should have more than adequate experience in all aspects of high altitude warfare by now. So do to Indians at Siachen what they did to us in Kargil. Use airpower to dislodge them from that place at the same time keeping their airforce at bay. Construct Swift retort as an operation Focus on the IAF's western air command. It need not be right after the Indian attack. Take appropriate time planning a coordinated adventure, build up the required logistics and supply and just don't send a handful of souls to die while the fat cat, drunk on his supposed genius, write a firey book. I have no doubt tat a combined PA and PAF operation can dislodge IA from Siachen. While at the same time, you have enough strength elsewhere to check any Indian reply on LOC or even across LOC.
 
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arjunk

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I think it’s unlikely that India will not try to get any captured territory. Our planners have made the same assumptions only to be proven wrong in all conflicts. In case we make any progress in Kashmir, they’ll open up fronts in Punjab and Sind and we would immediately switch to a defensive mode. We’ll stall any progress in Kashmir and then focus on defending in Punjab and Sind. The whole thing will end in another stalemate and possibly both countries will return to their old borders.
We should go on the offensive in Punjab and Rajasthan. It is easy to go defensive in Kashmir and let separatists attack the Indians for us. We can mobilise far faster than Indians in the Indus Plain area and can easily punch 5-10km into India if we take them by surprise.

Another thing: The borders with Iran and Afghanistan should be completely sealed with shoot on sight orders issued to border security forces.
 

Mumm-Ra

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The real question for us is. What would swift retort have looked like had the Indians actually murdered a seminary full of kids. The gloves would be off for sure. APS like national outrage, we’d all be baying for blood
My guess is we won’t be just aiming for their headquarters then. Their border positions, the Srinagar airfield and other assets may have been targeted. And engaging all aircrafts regardless of which side of the border they are found. One wonders how we would have climbed down from this though?
We should go on the offensive in Punjab and Rajasthan. It is easy to go defensive in Kashmir and let separatists attack the Indians for us. We can mobilise far faster than Indians in the Indus Plain area and can easily punch 5-10km into India if we take them by surprise.

Another thing: The borders with Iran and Afghanistan should be completely sealed with shoot on sight orders issued to border security forces.
Firstly, what are our goals in both Punjab and Rajasthan? Advance up till 30-40 Kms and hold or can we go for the kill and actually cause some bigger problems like getting a city. Imagine capturing Jammu city instead of getting 40 kms of worthless sand in the desert.
Secondly, people in Kashmir will not rise up for us. We tried that before in 65. It did not work.
And lastly, why create any problems with Afghanistan and Iran?
 
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SQ8

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27th Feb 2019 . The PAF retaliates

The following scenario was planned out based upon known narratives and intel - the same implications of no human factor apart from me simply enacting actions of air controller redirects(to try and enforce both borders and possible directives apply). This follows to the fictional wargame start of the 26th February strike actually being successful and leading to 200+ Pakistani deaths, mostly young childen.

The national response is fury, images of dead children blasted around the media with condemnation from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey , Malaysia and even Russia asked India to show restraint. Diplomats are working around the clock and the Indian public themselves are divided with the rabid Bhakt following celebrating child deaths as superior deliverance while Indian civil society shivers in horror.

The PAF provided multiple options to the leadership while shouting matches broke out during the NSC meeting as tempers and temperament collided. The FM and a military leader were hesitant to launch a massive decapitating strike against a IAF airbase while some clamored for an all out attack claiming that it would incapacitate Indian leadership and possibly provide an avenue into Kashmir.

Finally, the limited response was chosen with the intent to cause equal military casualties to India and relieve pressure on LOC sectors with the highest ceasefire violations.

The following is a review of what would occur in that aerial engagement - if
1. All pilots are equally competent
2. All forces respond as per training
3. Algorithms for radar, missile kinematics and set 15 second OODA loops play out

@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) - please let me know if someone wants to unfollow and I wont tag them

The result is no vacillating IAF and fighters that fight and a PAF that is more gloves off..

Make sure to force select 1080p quality otherwise the text & graphics are too blurred for any meaning.
 

khanmubashir

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I doubt any possible war happen during 2020-2035 period since both countries will focus on developing the economy and avoid any war.

I dont like the war between Pakistan and India and the help from Muslim nations I believe will only happen if Pakistan is in defensive position since if Pakistan in the offensive it means sending military help will only escalate and prolong the war.

Beyond 2035 scenario

The first help I believe will be sending MALE UCAV and its operator to Pakistan, and in order to do so need strong enough navy armada to bring them to Pakistan.

View attachment 743790

And Indonesian PT PAL is designing unmanned submarine where I think in 2035 above we will have many of them inshaAllah. The unmanned submarine will be the next to be send if India doesnt stop its offensive.

If India is lead by crazy and India offensive never stop, Indonesia will likely send KF 21/IFX and their UCAV STEALTH wingman drone (InshaAllah we will develop them).

View attachment 743794


And Pakistan needs to sell at least 20 nuclear head to Indonesia that can be integrated into submarine missiles, this will also give financial help to Pakistan and in the other hand give assurance that there will be nuclear war if India nuke Indonesia.

--------------------------------------------------------------

All of this will only happen under Indonesia being lead by Nationalist Religius-Islamist coalition, this coalition has ruled democratic Indonesia in several period (1998-1999-Habibie), (1999-2002 Abdurrahman Wahid), (2004-2014 Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono)

Other condition that should happen :

1. Indonesia stay with KF 21 program and the program is successful
2. Indonesia MALE UCAV/wingman STEALTH UCAV/unmanned submarine program are completed and successful
3. Indonesia economy keep growing at 5.5-6.5 percent growth until 2045 that could possibly make the country become more capable to solve world problem beyond its own border, starting at 2035
More of Indians mind farts
The only border areas suitable for heavy thrust into Pakistan are desert sparsely populated zones along Sindh desert and Rahim yar Khan even Lahore site with military in placed and heavy population making any rapid advance of enemy unlikely
Remember in 2002 Iraq war with desert terrain of Iraq perfect for tank movement and having complete air superiority Americans tool weeks to occupy small Iraqi town's
And Indians don't have anything remotely as favourable to indo Pak scenario
Even usa would sweat at Idea of invading and occupying a country as big as Pakistan
Then there's nuclear issue

If war happens it would be limited to border regions the ground attacks
In case of air battles if we are able to neutralise Indian airpower on northern sector destroy it's based with jets I think thats what our air force primary strategy is

kind of Israel did in 1967 Arab war the Indian southern air force assets would be of limited use in indo Pak war
But in end Indians going to war over killing of few Indian soldiers by Kashmiri fighter is just supa pawa Vs fed to dumb sanghis. If it was that easy Soviets and USA would have declared all out war long time ago
Indians stand to loose alot not I'd it goes side ways like it did on 27 Feb 19
From jets to supa pawa image
 
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Vapnope

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Suppose everything remains the same i.e. PAF launches symbolic strikes on 6 military installations however IAF manages to shoot down 2 PAF planes while intercepting, what would PAF would have done?
 

Mumm-Ra

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27th Feb 2019 . The PAF retaliates

The following scenario was planned out based upon known narratives and intel - the same implications of no human factor apart from me simply enacting actions of air controller redirects(to try and enforce both borders and possible directives apply). This follows to the fictional wargame start of the 26th February strike actually being successful and leading to 200+ Pakistani deaths, mostly young childen.

The national response is fury, images of dead children blasted around the media with condemnation from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey , Malaysia and even Russia asked India to show restraint. Diplomats are working around the clock and the Indian public themselves are divided with the rabid Bhakt following celebrating child deaths as superior deliverance while Indian civil society shivers in horror.

The PAF provided multiple options to the leadership while shouting matches broke out during the NSC meeting as tempers and temperament collided. The FM and a military leader were hesitant to launch a massive decapitating strike against a IAF airbase while some clamored for an all out attack claiming that it would incapacitate Indian leadership and possibly provide an avenue into Kashmir.

Finally, the limited response was chosen with the intent to cause equal military casualties to India and relieve pressure on LOC sectors with the highest ceasefire violations.

The following is a review of what would occur in that aerial engagement - if
1. All pilots are equally competent
2. All forces respond as per training
3. Algorithms for radar, missile kinematics and set 15 second OODA loops play out

@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) - please let me know if someone wants to unfollow and I wont tag them

The result is no vacillating IAF and fighters that fight and a PAF that is more gloves off..

Make sure to force select 1080p quality otherwise the text & graphics are too blurred for any meaning.
So with the gloves off, PAF was able to inflict pretty serious damage. Interestingly, the F-16s were able to dodge R-77s while at the same time downing their SUs.
 

truthfollower

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27th Feb 2019 . The PAF retaliates

The following scenario was planned out based upon known narratives and intel - the same implications of no human factor apart from me simply enacting actions of air controller redirects(to try and enforce both borders and possible directives apply). This follows to the fictional wargame start of the 26th February strike actually being successful and leading to 200+ Pakistani deaths, mostly young childen.

The national response is fury, images of dead children blasted around the media with condemnation from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey , Malaysia and even Russia asked India to show restraint. Diplomats are working around the clock and the Indian public themselves are divided with the rabid Bhakt following celebrating child deaths as superior deliverance while Indian civil society shivers in horror.

The PAF provided multiple options to the leadership while shouting matches broke out during the NSC meeting as tempers and temperament collided. The FM and a military leader were hesitant to launch a massive decapitating strike against a IAF airbase while some clamored for an all out attack claiming that it would incapacitate Indian leadership and possibly provide an avenue into Kashmir.

Finally, the limited response was chosen with the intent to cause equal military casualties to India and relieve pressure on LOC sectors with the highest ceasefire violations.

The following is a review of what would occur in that aerial engagement - if
1. All pilots are equally competent
2. All forces respond as per training
3. Algorithms for radar, missile kinematics and set 15 second OODA loops play out

@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) - please let me know if someone wants to unfollow and I wont tag them

The result is no vacillating IAF and fighters that fight and a PAF that is more gloves off..

Make sure to force select 1080p quality otherwise the text & graphics are too blurred for any meaning.
OMG 😻 you have finally created a YouTube channel. But Please 🤗please 🤗please 🤗add your commentary too
 

SQ8

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So with the gloves off, PAF was able to inflict pretty serious damage. Interestingly, the F-16s were able to dodge R-77s while at the same time downing their SUs.
The IAF was outnumbered - so maybe their retreat on the 27th wasn’t so misplaced or rather an intelligent move on the pilots behalf of living to fight another day.
@Trailer23 need some help with videos if you are able - I really struggle with this stuff. Tried snapshot but just adding text is a hassle.
 

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