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Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

Irfan Baloch

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Sir, As much as I appreciate the effort brother @SQ8 has put in, I always wonder what would be the most effective way to counter these Think Tanks & Lobbyists. Can we explore this, publicly or privately, whatever you may deem more appropriate?

Regards
take them for what their material is worth. some think tanks drive the policies of the west and they are well versed and impersonal. those kind of think tanks can be emulated and countered though own research groups and think tanks that can help in driving the internal and external policies based on geopolitics.

for anything else, that is a think tank only for name sake just put them in the same category as the rant shows on fox news NDTV etc. they can be either ignored or laughed at or left for our own geniuses like Mubashir Luqman, Zaid Hamid and Amir Liyaqat.

the war of propaganda and narratives can be countered with the same style of narrative and generous amount of rants because logical and intellectual discussion is not applicable.

the technical scenarios are virtual war gaming. just like the military exercises. they are much like a proof of concept or idea demonstrator. they are not viewed as a sure shot win guarantee but a way to identify flaws as well as validate the strategies.
of course bag and pads practice can never replace the real thing in the ring since the pads and the punch bags don't hit back but they tune in the boxer.
 
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SQ8

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Sir, please allow me to disagree, my experience says otherwise.



Couldn't agree with you more, hence why they, and their agenda, should be exposed!
@ebrahym To quote the saying “No plan ever survives contact with the enemy” - all of these scenarios are written by a combination of desk jockeys(military and civilian) who either have limited or no experience of actually being in Pakistan.

Even when they are - they can have a month in and not fully understand dynamics or get very limited exposure.

Finally, keep in mind - our primary enemy is 1.1 billion strong and embedded well into the US state functionaries. So their assessment of Pakistanis are the enemy, Pakistanis are easy to defeat or have massive insurgency all factor into this. The purpose of this thread was to really see their mindset but then come up with an internal PDF wargame to see what the professionals and experts foresee as the outcome.
 

akramishaqkhan

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Yes I can see just these type of "analysis" done (war gaming) by the Americans when they decided to invade Iraq and Afghanistan. Rest is history.

No one knows what will happen in a war. What is not disputable is that Pakistan is a country of 225Million, that land mass of the entire Eastern Seaboard. The notion that Indian Army will run the gauntlet like some Rommel armor through the planes of Punjab or Deserts of Rajasthan is nutty.

Indian Armor as with Pakistani Armor is likely to only punch a few holes perhaps going in 30-50KM so as to not stretch logistics lines and manage against counter attacks (along with susceptibility to effective counter armor strategies via ATGMs) . Any other proposition (faster and deeper ingress) is likely to see Armor degrade over time. Most forward air-bases will take the brunt of cruise and other types of missiles. This will erode their efficacy over the course of a war. Here Pakistan will fare worse but nothing that will completely knock PAF out (as paf transitions into other infrastructure like highways and a larger 2-tier basing approach). IAF will continue to operate as well and will in similar fashion see her forward bases erode. Air war will likely grind to a stalemate with ground to air defences taking a more prominent role over time. Whichever side manages to continue to operate a strong detection and ground reaction will fare better over time. Also combined arms tactics will also be critical in yielding better on the ground results.

The notion that IN will sink the entirety of PN is fanciful. This paper fails to take into account Orbat and application of war fighting means around an optimum approach. If you put PN and IN in open sea face to face. Sure, PN would not fare well. But that is not how wars are fought. PN will apply its assets in a manner that will give them the greatest likelihood of success (closer to coastal waters, with AShM and Air cover protection). So here too though IN will not be able to either sink PN nor blockade PK ports and coasts. Infact there is a stronger chance that gulf exports to IN will be severely hampered, as it will be within PN capabilities to monitor and interdict shipping from the Gulf. Any ship unable to verify or confirmed to have its destination to India, will be in danger of coastal batteries.

Pakistan has a big reserve force. Combine that with local forces like FC and other units and you'll have easily the ability to tamp down any internal challenges. SOPs for engagement will loosen and from TTP to BLA, any group that attempts to create trouble at scale will be ground down very quickly. Same goes for India, however I think if China plays its part things could get tough for India with her insurgencies especially those in the North East.

So net net, it will be a defacto draw yet again.
 
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ebrahym

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@ebrahym To quote the saying “No plan ever survives contact with the enemy” - all of these scenarios are written by a combination of desk jockeys(military and civilian) who either have limited or no experience of actually being in Pakistan.

Even when they are - they can have a month in and not fully understand dynamics or get very limited exposure.

Finally, keep in mind - our primary enemy is 1.1 billion strong and embedded well into the US state functionaries. So their assessment of Pakistanis are the enemy, Pakistanis are easy to defeat or have massive insurgency all factor into this. The purpose of this thread was to really see their mindset but then come up with an internal PDF wargame to see what the professionals and experts foresee as the outcome.
blimey!!!!
 

SQ8

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@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) and others

I am going to start off the PDF scenario from the event we are most familiar with - it is 26th February 2019 -
I think it is a good starting scenario since we know about the events and also makes for a good plausible start of what if. It also gives me the follow up of 27th Feb to replicate but with the twist as I will outline below.

All I have done is set up the simulation based on the accounts from Acdre Tufail, members here and even the Indian accounts of how they set up their refueling and strike route - the accuracy of which is really dependent upon these folks.

Additionally, by setting up flight paths for the main strike force, diversion - I set their RoEs(restrictive for PAF and IAF is fire at PAF only in defense) , whether to pursue across the border or not(although they do get naughty at times) and the mission profiles.

Finally - once I hit "Play" I do NOT control the variables or any of the units in there - the algorithms assume the virtual pilots are equally proficient(same OODA loop of 15 second detection and 20 seconds to engage) and there were no errors in loading Spice 2000 coordinates. In summary, if the IAF did everything by the book and the PAF did everything by the book.

For the 26th I am using images but looking to switch to video for the 27th if the editing comes out OK.

SO:

Narendra Modi has just authorized a strike on a seminary with in Balakot as retribution for Pulwama. We dont know what the kids are being taught or whether it is a training camp as they claim or not. But there are young children in there.

Per Acdre Tufails account - the Indian Strike aircraft took off at 1:30 am with 16 M2000s - Indian sources also cite Su-30s in the air acting as escorts and diversionary flights.
The picture when seen from the Pakistani side at 1:30am (solid white line - yellow lines represent engagement of ADGE systems known employed) shows the usual civilian traffic as well along with Pakistani ELINT picking up Indian Radar coverage.

26th1.PNG


On the Indian side we have the A-50 airborne providing AEW support (some sources cite the Netra 145) and a IL-78(soon to be followed by another) for refueling support.

26th2.PNG


At 1:31 the Mirages start rolling from Gwalior - Su-30s from Jodhpur have not yet taken off.

26th3.PNG


Around 1:45-2am the package of 16 mirages starts forming up - some tasked to split off and head towards diversionary targets. The A-50 is now at altitude and providing good coverage of most of northern Pakistani airspace.

26th4.PNG



While technically Pakistani radar coverage from its TPS series extends into India, there is no trace of what is happening on that side other than what is perceived to be a lone flight which could be a CAP(although I am sure in PAF AHQ some eyes were up based upon Intel). The last CAP had landed a while ago and its replacement was now being prepped for take off.


26th6.PNG


However, by 2:15 things start showing up - the CAP is taxying to the runway 2x JF-17 Block-2s from Kamra armed with SD-10s. This CAP was set to trigger automatically by the computer if it detected more than 2xflights and perceived the flight path of those unknows to be crossing into a pre-defined area. Interestingly, during Mujahideen e Aflak it was claimed that the radar only saw the IAF flight around 3am? Was this referral to the Balakot strike and not the other violations at Fazalika sector and others?


26th7.PNG


As the first diversionary flights starts heading through - the computer decides it may want to scramble another pair - F-16s out of Mushaf, they are airborne around 2:45 ( interestingly , Pakistani accounts state they did not get airborne until they detected the Indian flight - but the computer did not hesitate to respond)

26th8.PNG


After realizing that the diversions were not a threat - the computer focuses the JF-17 and F-16 towards the Indian Mirages heading for Balakot who are now at 2:55 about to cross the border- The cloud cover keeps the crystal maze(AGM-142 derivative) from being deployed and that flight will soon turn back.
The Pakistani interceptors go into burner after chasing the false leads and will inadvertently do some border violations too trying to get to the Indian aircraft.




26th11.PNG

That may not be enough - as the M2Ks are in range for the SPICE-2000 ( the computer elects to drop a little closer than its max range of 30nm to around 22nm , trying to guarantee energy and probability of hit)


26th13.PNG


The bombs make their mark - the seminary is blow to smithereens along with any occupants - The PAF fighters might see the flames but in general the time of night wont make any difference, The Indian flight turns back with the PAF hot on their tails, but with the RoE's in place the computer has no reason for weapons release and the IAF aircraft head back after their deed is done.
26th14.PNG


The PAF doesn't pursue them across the border - the damage will be known soon enough. There was no nervous Indian pilot or mistake in loading gps elevation data for the Spice system. 200+ Pakistanis were killed with the majority of them children - that national message would echo the APS massacre in many ways. By early morning the cameras will arrive and a raging nation will weigh its response.



Thoughts;

1. Without the human element (other than deciding OODA loops) the Pakistani ADGE was aware of something amiss but was distracted by the diversions.

2. The Balakot package had to refuel twice from Gwalior on both legs of the journey on what was a 3hour mission in essence back and forth.

3. Based on radar detection and if they had prior knowledge of intent, the PAF could have engaged the IAF Strike package at BVR over Indian air space and right after they crossed the border for 10-15km before releasing SPICE 2000. However, there was a group of M2ks with MICAs and a Su-30 Pair around that could respond as well. It would have spared Pakistani lives but within the RoEs this was all moot.

Given the human factor is taken out and simple rule based and probability gaming - nothing prevents the IAF from executing a successful strike on Balakot.
 

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Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) and others

I am going to start off the PDF scenario from the event we are most familiar with - it is 26th February 2019 -
I think it is a good starting scenario since we know about the events and also makes for a good plausible start of what if. It also gives me the follow up of 27th Feb to replicate but with the twist as I will outline below.

All I have done is set up the simulation based on the accounts from Acdre Tufail, members here and even the Indian accounts of how they set up their refueling and strike route - the accuracy of which is really dependent upon these folks.

Additionally, by setting up flight paths for the main strike force, diversion - I set their RoEs(restrictive for PAF and IAF is fire at PAF only in defense) , whether to pursue across the border or not(although they do get naughty at times) and the mission profiles.

Finally - once I hit "Play" I do NOT control the variables or any of the units in there - the algorithms assume the virtual pilots are equally proficient(same OODA loop of 15 second detection and 20 seconds to engage) and there were no errors in loading Spice 2000 coordinates. In summary, if the IAF did everything by the book and the PAF did everything by the book.

For the 26th I am using images but looking to switch to video for the 27th if the editing comes out OK.

SO:

Narendra Modi has just authorized a strike on a seminary with in Balakot as retribution for Pulwama. We dont know what the kids are being taught or whether it is a training camp as they claim or not. But there are young children in there.

Per Acdre Tufails account - the Indian Strike aircraft took off at 1:30 am with 16 M2000s - Indian sources also cite Su-30s in the air acting as escorts and diversionary flights.
The picture when seen from the Pakistani side at 1:30am (solid white line - yellow lines represent engagement of ADGE systems known employed) shows the usual civilian traffic as well along with Pakistani ELINT picking up Indian Radar coverage.

View attachment 746064

On the Indian side we have the A-50 airborne providing AEW support (some sources cite the Netra 145) and a IL-78(soon to be followed by another) for refueling support.

View attachment 746065

At 1:31 the Mirages start rolling from Gwalior - Su-30s from Jodhpur have not yet taken off.
View attachment 746066

Around 1:45-2am the package of 16 mirages starts forming up - some tasked to split off and head towards diversionary targets. The A-50 is now at altitude and providing good coverage of most of northern Pakistani airspace.

View attachment 746067


While technically Pakistani radar coverage from its TPS series extends into India, there is no trace of what is happening on that side other than what is perceived to be a lone flight which could be a CAP(although I am sure in PAF AHQ some eyes were up based upon Intel). The last CAP had landed a while ago and its replacement was now being prepped for take off.


View attachment 746069

However, by 2:15 things start showing up - the CAP is taxying to the runway 2x JF-17 Block-2s from Kamra armed with SD-10s. This CAP was set to trigger automatically by the computer if it detected more than 2xflights and perceived the flight path of those unknows to be crossing into a pre-defined area. Interestingly, during Mujahideen e Aflak it was claimed that the radar only saw the IAF flight around 3am? Was this referral to the Balakot strike and not the other violations at Fazalika sector and others?

View attachment 746070

As the first diversionary flights starts heading through - the computer decides it may want to scramble another pair - F-16s out of Mushaf, they are airborne around 2:45 ( interestingly , Pakistani accounts state they did not get airborne until they detected the Indian flight - but the computer did not hesitate to respond)

View attachment 746071

After realizing that the diversions were not a threat - the computer focuses the JF-17 and F-16 towards the Indian Mirages heading for Balakot who are now at 2:55 about to cross the border- The cloud cover keeps the crystal maze(AGM-142 derivative) from being deployed and that flight will soon turn back.
The Pakistani interceptors go into burner after chasing the false leads and will inadvertently do some border violations too trying to get to the Indian aircraft.




View attachment 746074
That may not be enough - as the M2Ks are in range for the SPICE-2000 ( the computer elects to drop a little closer than its max range of 30nm to around 22nm , trying to guarantee energy and probability of hit)


View attachment 746100

The bombs make their mark - the seminary is blow to smithereens along with any occupants - The PAF fighters might see the flames but in general the time of night wont make any difference, The Indian flight turns back with the PAF hot on their tails, but with the RoE's in place the computer has no reason for weapons release and the IAF aircraft head back after their deed is done.
View attachment 746118

The PAF doesn't pursue them across the border - the damage will be known soon enough. There was no nervous Indian pilot or mistake in loading gps elevation data for the Spice system. 200+ Pakistanis were killed with the majority of them children - that national message would echo the APS massacre in many ways. By early morning the cameras will arrive and a raging nation will weigh its response.



Thoughts;

1. Without the human element (other than deciding OODA loops) the Pakistani ADGE was aware of something amiss but was distracted by the diversions.

2. The Balakot package had to refuel twice from Gwalior on both legs of the journey on what was a 3hour mission in essence back and forth.

3. Based on radar detection and if they had prior knowledge of intent, the PAF could have engaged the IAF Strike package at BVR over Indian air space and right after they crossed the border for 10-15km before releasing SPICE 2000. However, there was a group of M2ks with MICAs and a Su-30 Pair around that could respond as well. It would have spared Pakistani lives but within the RoEs this was all moot.

Given the human factor is taken out and simple rule based and probability gaming - nothing prevents the IAF from executing a successful strike on Balakot.
In this scenario, is the PAF left with 2 options?

1. Either try downing the incoming Indian birds, but at the risk of breaking RoEs and giving India a legal justification to escalate. However, the risk of following current RoEs is that they kill 200 of our kids. So, it's a lose-lose scenario, unless...

2. We use the seminary attack as legal justification to attack a major military site close to the LoC, perhaps try a Kargil 2.0, but without the silo-ed planning. We maintain a single-focus goal of capturing a 1-2 areas with immediate effect via a composite of a PAF strike package, sweeper unit, SSW (for CSAR), and Army units?

However, Option 2 then exposes us to a perpetual conflict as India will try reclaiming those sectors, unless they give up (unlikely) or the US intervenes. The latter scenario will likely see us surrender those locations, unless the US decides Kashmir isn't worth India's time and energy. In that respect, the US could tell India to back off and focus on China?

What do we do to get to that scenario? Do we line up international lawyers ahead of time to argue the validity of our military attack? Do we buy off Western policy officials to trumpet our moral case? Do we capture an area we think India's hiding their skeletons (figuratively and maybe literally) and show it off to Al Jazeera, TRT World, etc?

Finally, does the equation change if (by some chance) Kashmir enters a mass popular uprising phase (ala Syria or Libya)? In that scenario, if India is evidently struggling with containing the uprising, do we change our RoEs and actually down their birds over IHK on the assumption that those birds are after targets within Pakistan?
 

SQ8

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In this scenario, is the PAF left with 2 options?

1. Either try downing the incoming Indian birds, but at the risk of breaking RoEs and giving India a legal justification to escalate. However, the risk of following current RoEs is that they kill 200 of our kids. So, it's a lose-lose scenario, unless...

2. We use the seminary attack as legal justification to attack a major military site close to the LoC, perhaps try a Kargil 2.0, but without the silo-ed planning. We maintain a single-focus goal of capturing a 1-2 areas with immediate effect via a composite of a PAF strike package, sweeper unit, SSW (for CSAR), and Army units?

However, Option 2 then exposes us to a perpetual conflict as India will try reclaiming those sectors, unless they give up (unlikely) or the US intervenes. The latter scenario will likely see us surrender those locations, unless the US decides Kashmir isn't worth India's time and energy. In that respect, the US could tell India to back off and focus on China?

What do we do to get to that scenario? Do we line up international lawyers ahead of time to argue the validity of our military attack? Do we buy off Western policy officials to trumpet our moral case? Do we capture an area we think India's hiding their skeletons (figuratively and maybe literally) and show it off to Al Jazeera, TRT World, etc?

Finally, does the equation change if (by some chance) Kashmir enters a mass popular uprising phase (ala Syria or Libya)? In that scenario, if India is evidently struggling with containing the uprising, do we change our RoEs and actually down their birds over IHK on the assumption that those birds are after targets within Pakistan?
Well.. the next scenario to build is the 27th February but with gloves off - what does that look like?
Does it become a full fledged incursion or an airstrike at FoBs or even a major Indian AB.

I can get to build a close replica of 27th feb but would that even be the response?
 

JamD

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Well.. the next scenario to build is the 27th February but with gloves off - what does that look like?
Does it become a full fledged incursion or an airstrike at FoBs or even a major Indian AB.

I can get to build a close replica of 27th feb but would that even be the response?
First of all I would not like to be the one deciding how to respond to hundreds of dead Pakistani children. No right answers.

Also, this really shows (and something that we've known) that it was incompetency that prevented whatever we are and about to discuss. Really scary that South Asia was saved merely by Indian incompetence.

I would speculate on how Pakistan would respond:
1. Do not respond immediately but use the time to create a media spectacle to try to win international favour. This is kind of what we saw on 27th February: a delayed response.
2. Strike military targets: all the targets that were locked on 27th would be actually hit, including the high command.
3. Strike at many many more targets than 27th February, essentially throwing the IAF in disarray. We would also loose aircraft in this expanded scenario of course.
4. India, will no undoubtedly respond in kind.

Hard to say what would happen next.
 

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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First of all I would not like to be the one deciding how to respond to hundreds of dead Pakistani children. No right answers.

Also, this really shows (and something that we've known) that it was incompetency that prevented whatever we are and about to discuss. Really scary that South Asia was saved merely by Indian incompetence.

I would speculate on how Pakistan would respond:
1. Do not respond immediately but use the time to create a media spectacle to try to win international favour. This is kind of what we saw on 27th February: a delayed response.
2. Strike military targets: all the targets that were locked on 27th would be actually hit, including the high command.
3. Strike at many many more targets than 27th February, essentially throwing the IAF in disarray. We would also loose aircraft in this expanded scenario of course.
4. India, will no undoubtedly respond in kind.

Hard to say what would happen next.
Not to give "5G warfare" people credit, but that first response is contingent on:

Getting the likes of AJE, TRT, etc to cover our side of the story.

God knows BBC and CNN ain't doing anything for us. So the question is, what do we do to get AJE and TRT (and others) onboard? Well, AJE = concessions to Qatar, and TRT = concessions to Turkey. Note: I am not saying good ties, but concessions. We'll have to gift something on a silver platter to these countries well ahead of any fights with India. E.g., Turkey's been asking for partners for the TFX, and Qatar's got aspirations.

Getting key Western politicians to crap on India's actions.

Who needs campaign funding? Any towns and cities looking for more investment (perhaps we send our students to those local schools, for a start?).

This requires a budget. I'd say at least $1B a year depending on what we're giving to these stakeholders.
 

SQ8

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First of all I would not like to be the one deciding how to respond to hundreds of dead Pakistani children. No right answers.

Also, this really shows (and something that we've known) that it was incompetency that prevented whatever we are and about to discuss. Really scary that South Asia was saved merely by Indian incompetence.

I would speculate on how Pakistan would respond:
1. Do not respond immediately but use the time to create a media spectacle to try to win international favour. This is kind of what we saw on 27th February: a delayed response.
2. Strike military targets: all the targets that were locked on 27th would be actually hit, including the high command.
3. Strike at many many more targets than 27th February, essentially throwing the IAF in disarray. We would also loose aircraft in this expanded scenario of course.
4. India, will no undoubtedly respond in kind.

Hard to say what would happen next.
Ok - lets do options 2 since it seems that was still a measured response. knowing that most of IAF strike assets are out of reach I don’t think the PAF would try hitting an airbase.
 

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I have a framework in mind - frankly have in-laws over so waiting for the scenario to become more amicable to me having time to spend on the pc
you my friend are already in a state of WAR :whistle:
Our @SQ8 bhai after the Trip from Sasural
1621665872067.png

bhai gussa na hona just a light joke :)
 
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PDF

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nothing prevents the IAF from executing a successful strike on Balakot.
what stops India from optimally utilizing their current assets? Even removing Rafales from the next scenario, we are still at a disadvantageous position if they manage to effectively utilize their fighter aircrafts and tactics. And I am sure after the Feb 27th event, PAF will probably be in for a rude awakening in the next conflict.

The only advantage PAF has is superior tactics and strategy. But it is a function based on humans which are prone to make mistakes. I am just trying to remind everyone that the same Indian vulnerabilities that help us can be present at our end in the future too.

We can not afford to dismiss or remain oblivious to our limitations.
 

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