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Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

Tomcats

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Then here is the question - what is the real scenario?
I mean chances of another high intensity broad front conflict seems low due to the economic impact which no side really wants. Like it has been at least 50 years since the last one.

Though i digress, let's say it does take place, long term India can attrition Pakistan in a long year(s) long conflict due to their economical and Industrial edge as well as their territorial depth.
In a short war it will be hit or miss, India or Pakistan could come out as the winner it will really depend on what happens on the ground and whether our planners make the right moves or not, we may plan it out as well as we can but like the old adage goes, 'No plan survives contact with the enemy'.
 

Goritoes

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First of all, What the FUQQQQQQQQQ is mountain Alliance? I am forced to believe by some super emotional members of PDF that when times come Pashtoon will be in front to fight for Pakistan? but what you are saying...
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The way I see it here is how things will play out...

I am bypassing all that Indian BS of Terrorist Attack and one is caught alive with indestructible Pakistani Passport, CNIC and some Prince biscuit packs with some Ajwa Kajoor. Lets start from when once again India decide to launch an Air strike within Pakistan but this time they come better prepared and this time most importantly they hit something where Pakistan faces some civilian loses, next day Pakistan will parade those dead to International media and this time no firm warning to Indians that wait for our response, as they are briefing the media a Strike is underway. This time IAF is very well prepared but Pakistan obviously change its incursion strategy ( they'd be dumb if they don't ).

PAF strikes Military targets but this time they hit the actual building killing a sum of IA soldiers but the Air fight took a couple of jets from each side, which works as fuel to the raging fire, IA prepare a massive ground attack as preparation was done since the days of India Rants, and Pakistan already moved a massive force in border Areas and now bracing for the Attack, at this situation Americans will be calling Delhi and Islamabad but also providing Satellite images to Indians (most likely) and same would be expected from China, And Russians are sitting back with their Vodka bottle enjoying ( Das vedaniya ) .

India launch a multiple attack from Sindh (Thar), Punjab ( Sialkot+Lahore) and Azad Kashmir with heavy backings with IAF striking PAF forward Positions under the cover of their Almighty S400, PAF will be very troubled because of lack of strategic depth, hence as soon as their fighters fly's off to intercept IAF will know but PAF can counter this by putting their own AWAC's in sky deep in KPK and Baluchistan to keep an eye on IAF activities, IAF first strike will put a heavy blow on PAF this time (if not, they should just commit collective suicide) but PAF will recover as the motivation and Survival instinct of Pakistan's are on full swing, Religious songs are all over the radio that will pump up PAF and PA soldiers so much so that they become wardi wale Suicide bombers ( if we die, we will take you down with us), IA will use its heavy numbers to launch attacks from multiple fronts to stretch PA forces hence easy to penetrate but as if the PA is having hard to keeping up with the defense then a Call will be send of Radio Pakistan, Mere Aziz Hamwatno, Kuffr ne lalkara hai Muslim ko again blah blah blah, hence Pakistani's who are bored of PUBG and burning their own country for some French Presidents will come out in millions to join the voluenteer force (you can give it any name you want) they will send to lines behind the actual defense lines to perform logistics and supply while rest of PA soldiers will be sent on front to match IA numbers.

War is on full swing, many countries are trying to pretend they don't like war but inside they are happy, as brown People are slaughtering each other again and these Gori Chamri can now sell more weapons to these Chawal Chutiya's of South Asia (Pardon my language). Afghanistan with whatever is left of them will try to use TTP and other Terrorists to attack some of the FC posts from the west, but FC will kick them so hard that they will become actual impotent this time (not that Polio drops Impotent). FC is more than enough to take care of the Afghan hashish Army and TTP once well established in their forts, Iran's role will be crucial but also unpredictable, I want to believe that Iran will send Oil for Pakistan in this time with opening their very close to the border Airfields for PAF in case they want to land, but this is a huge huge gamble, if it plays out well then it will be good for Pakistan but if it didn't then no complains or Shikway to Iranians as they did what every Enemy would do. China before things heat up, secretly transfer ammunition, missiles, even J-10's to Pakistan along with full of Satellite imagery of Indian targets and formations and other goodies, CCP will be giving statements of war should be avoided but also helping Pakistan as Indians will be getting their help from Yahood-o-Nasara in full Pagan style.

on the naval Front, IN will definitely gain some initial success by attacking PN ships (most likely) sinking 1-2 in the process, but thing is that this time PN is better prepared in the retaliation PN can easily hit more IN ships and sink more using their Submarine fleet's, Coastal Defense batteries will play a massive role in Preventing another 71 kinda situation, and hopefully by 2024 (which is the year this war is going on) PN will raise a Full strength sq of fighters dedicated for Naval strikes which will make IN ships think twice before coming close enough for a blockade.

India Pushes inside Pakistan and Pakistan losing ground, here Pakistan will have a choice to make, Radioactive or full-on Public Active, Now if we go for Radio Active then Abbu Jee of the world, Aka America will pick up the movement of the missiles by Pakistan, they will tell their Indian counterparts that Pakistan" Bare larke le aya hai " its time to back down, Americans will try their best that by the time world forces both countries for a cease-fire India is on the stronger Position which will hurt Pakistani morale, but China will make sure that Pakistan if not come of Top at least match Indian advances on equal terms if IA gains some Territory so does Pakistan hence both countries retreat back to Pre-war Position. Kashmiri's will still remain under IA occupation cause they will again capture PA soldiers and hand them over to India (most likely) Afghan's will be cheering up for Indians like Sheela ki Jawani, but in the end it will the Afghan Munni which will be badnam.

Indian image will get strong as they will push the narrative that because of Pakistan's allege Terrorism we went on a full-scale War, and close to a Nuclear War hence the world should put tougher Sanctions of Pakistan for supporting Terrorism and to some degree they will be successful because their standing is better in the International world then us, on the other side Pakistan will see as a smaller nation which defends against a 10x larger enemy yet again, ( Lanat ho Indians tum per, Sharam se doob marna) while China, Turkey, KSA and Malaysia might issue statements in favor of Pakistan and through back door diplomacy Pakistan might be able to avoid Sanctions from Abbu Jee America and the world, Some EU countries will write Articles praising Indians while other will remain neutral, I know we will get some fresh Air articles from our Italian Pizza brothers :D Turkey will do the same, KSA as usual offer free Oil as they don't have anything else to offer besides oil, China will ask for more influence over Pakistan for the stuff they provided during the WAR, and After the war and we will have our Hamid Mir Telling us that China is buying Poor Pakistani's kidneys.

Conclusion: The war will leave a huge number of Soldiers and Civilians dead (With or Without Nukes) IA because of their large numbers will lose more, because of the factor that invading Armies needs more soldiers and loses more, compared to defending Armies, but Indians will eventually Claim that Pakistan lost 30,000 soldiers for Indian 10,000 cause whatever their death rate is they just multiply it by 3 and present it as Pakistani dead, and their chawal Awam will believe it, Indians will be made to believe that Bharat ne Pakistan ko Sabak sekha diya blah blah, until the time when some Kashmiri's again pick up some AK's and kill few more IA soldiers and the whole thing start again.

@PanzerKiel @HRK @Blacklight @SQ8
 
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Mav3rick

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Here’s a naive scenario from me (Fools dare where angels fear):

Pak-Sino Joint Ops:

EW: the Indian EM spectrum is blocked from all sides (West, North, East, South via land, air, sea and space based assets). Phantom images are generated. Take out the Indian spy satellites via anti satellite missiles.

Strategic sabotage: Indian strategic sites (AD, nukes, missiles, air bases, transportation, communication, power, ports, logistics, administrative, banking etc.) via cyber warfare, sleeper cells, pinpoint missiles, long range loitering munitions etc. attacks. Generous usage of EMP, directed energy weapons etc. is allowed. Feed as much misinformation as possible to the gullible Indian common folks.

Unmanned attacks: AI driven air, land and sea based unmanned assets using SOM, guided bombs etc. taking out the forward positions, AD, artillery, tanks etc. And, they are directing long range artillery, rocket etc. attacks on the Indian positions along LOC, LAC, IB etc.

Air attacks: amongst complete COVID style chaos inside India the manned jets go for air-to-air, air-to-ground and air-to-sea targets 02-27 style with complete air superiority.

Land ops: amidst the complete air superiority a Turkish-style drone based warfare to clear the remaining points of the resistances in Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal, Arunachal, Sikim, Chicken’s neck and South Tibet is undertaken with the fanfare.

Naval ops: submarines of all sorts are employed along with anti-submarine ops along the usual channels. Indian carriers and are other surface assets are taken out via missiles.

Crumbling India: Seeing the devastating effects of the non-contact warfare India asks for ceasefire while all the Pak-Sino objectives have got achieved.
So all this while the Indian Military sleeps? I mean these can be achieved against Afghanistan, perhaps......but against India, with such impunity???
 

HRK

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Afghan problem won't end post 9/11/21,it's only solution is extension of Pakistani frontier till Amu river
I agree most of the points of your post other than this one .... but as this theard is not related to this topic therefore we may argue on this topic in some other thread in some other day

But briefly for this point my argument is simple why burden ourselves unnecessarily .... ?? all we need from Afghanistan is land access to Central Asia and some raw material that's it nothing more .... lets the native decide what they want even if they want division of Afghanistan let them do it ....
 

Indos

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Although that I would love nothing more than Pakistan providing Nuclear Weapons and Delivery systems to other Muslims Countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE etc.); the sanctions would destroy all these countries financially.
2035 beyond IMO is already something different, the world will likely be multipolar and the effect of US and Western sanction will be likely much less and Indonesia and Malaysia economy would likely be still growing within RCEP region.
 

Irfan Baloch

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@SQ8
do you want us to give it our own spin?
or just comment on the scenario and how it plays out?

I will forward this page to see ifI can get some view from the veterans who served in the areas.
 

The Maverick

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Even a short war will.bring Pakistan.to it's knees,so quickly .
reason being all.your big cities and infrastructure is near the border. The impact via power black outs and no flights. no telephone lines will hit you guys so hard..Lahore Islamabad even Karachi are too close to the fire line.
your forex,reserve is like 5% of India.s and the indian navy will.try and blockade you..

indian commercial.cities Delhi Mumbai Chennai Bangalore are 1000.miles,away..
throwing the odd missle will.be like needle at an elephant.
and no one's using nukes, you have no idea,where arihant is with it's nuclear strike missles.
it will.be attritional war but as I have always said finish the f16 fleet and the air power goes to India..Even if 100.mki and mirages are lost take out 50.or 60.f16 and it's over..
that will.be the plan I'm.sure along with sea lines,denile and hitting Karachi and gwader hard.
I doubt India will.take land more search and destroy your military assets and bases,
 

PanzerKiel

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Even a short war will.bring Pakistan.to it's knees,so quickly .
reason being all.your big cities and infrastructure is near the border. The impact via power black outs and no flights. no telephone lines will hit you guys so hard..Lahore Islamabad even Karachi are too close to the fire line.
your forex,reserve is like 5% of India.s and the indian navy will.try and blockade you..

indian commercial.cities Delhi Mumbai Chennai Bangalore are 1000.miles,away..
throwing the odd missle will.be like needle at an elephant.
and no one's using nukes, you have no idea,where arihant is with it's nuclear strike missles.
it will.be attritional war but as I have always said finish the f16 fleet and the air power goes to India..Even if 100.mki and mirages are lost take out 50.or 60.f16 and it's over..
that will.be the plan I'm.sure along with sea lines,denile and hitting Karachi and gwader hard.
I doubt India will.take land more search and destroy your military assets and bases,
... But then there was and there is something which was and is stopping india from achieving this easy victory as you say... The way you have narrated it, the only thing missing on your side is the WILL.... Nothing else.... Why isn't anyone willing on your side to eradicate Pakistan once and for all?
 

The Maverick

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... But then there was and there is something which was and is stopping india from achieving this easy victory as you say... The way you have narrated it, the only thing missing on your side is the WILL.... Nothing else.... Why isn't anyone willing on your side to eradicate Pakistan once and for all?

no India cannot erridcuate pakistan imo completely.
my post depicts the loss to your infrastructure and military assets in war lasting 3 or 4 weeks with out international support . it depicts what could happen based on your apparent weaknesses ie
no strategic depth
biggest cities near border relative to Indian cities
smaller air Force with over reliance on small fleet of mostly outraged,f16
financial.constraints
smaller navy relative to.india

ps you could Force a,stalemate but your supplies,war material economy will.suffer over one month
 

PanzerKiel

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no India cannot erridcuate pakistan imo completely.
my post depicts the loss to your infrastructure and military assets in war lasting 3 or 4 weeks with out international support . it depicts what could happen based on your apparent weaknesses ie
no strategic depth
biggest cities near border relative to Indian cities
smaller air Force with over reliance on small fleet of mostly outraged,f16
financial.constraints
smaller navy relative to.india

ps you could Force a,stalemate but your supplies,war material economy will.suffer over one month
Every one of your points is debatable... Even of strategic depth.... Israel can say that it doesn't have strategic depth, but not us....

But then, my question still remains, why india doesn't wage a month long war today to destroy the economic and military potential of Pakistan? Why hasn't it been already done? Why you are letting Pakistan to strengthen, allowing it initially to even become an atomic power....?
 

Pakistani Fighter

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I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:

"Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."

It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester

https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822

They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do

@Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino

Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?:p:

Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.

The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):

1. Border Skirmish
Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.

Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.

Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
(Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)

Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)

2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)
Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.

Situation
Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.

Mission
Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
PAF Murid
PAF Minhas
PAF Mianwali
PAF Rafiqui
PAF Shahbaz
PAF Faisal
PAF Masroor
In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this)

3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)
After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)
The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.

Situation
Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
Mission
Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)

4. Doomsday Clock (India)
Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.

Situation
Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.

Mission
Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. ( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)

5. Flaming Seas (played as India)
After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.

Situation
INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
Mission
Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.

6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)
Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.

Situation
India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.

Mission
Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)

7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)
The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.

Situation
Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.

Mission
Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
(Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)

8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)
The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.

Situation
China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
Mission
Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.

(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)

9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)
In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
Situation
American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... :disagree:)
In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
Mission
Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)

10. Crackdown(Played as USA)
It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan( Who wouldnt??)

Situation
Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
Mission
Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well. ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)

11. Escalation (Played as USA)
A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
Situation
Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
Mission
Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar(Et tu - Brutus??!) is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)

12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)
Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
India has ambitious plans(always have) for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
Situation
The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
Mission
Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi(Good luck surviving that hell!). The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.

13. Over The Hump (Played as India)

The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.

China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
Situation
In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
Mission
Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)

14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)

In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.

Situation
Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
Mission
Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)

15. Race Against The Clock
Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
Situation
Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
Mission
Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes


And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.
The Mountain Alliance is a crap. LOL Northern People of Pakistan are more prone to go on a war with India

Moreover, is it so easy to overrun Pakistan's Land Army? The ratio for both armies are about 1:2.4 approx and India would need 2x times more manpower to overrun Pak Army. Do you think India would leave behind 0.4 of its army against whole of China and Bangladesh???

Third Pakistan is going to get PL 15s in the future thereby improving the navy's defenses. India's P8s, SU 30s, and Mig29Ks will have a tough time targetting PN ships due to it. Moreover, PN has displayed its effectiveness by detecting Indians Subs 2 times in 2016 and 2019( PN will also be getting Advanced Maritime Aircrafts in the future). PAF jets are equipped with YJ 12s and C802s (with the possibility of acquiring more powerful missiles in near future) which can deny IN ships from closer to Pakistan shores. Pakistan also tested Harbah Anti-ship missile. Also, we have Zarb and other coastal anti-ship batteries which can make IN useless.
 

The Maverick

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Every one of your points is debatable... Even of strategic depth.... Israel can say that it doesn't have strategic depth, but not us....

But then, my question still remains, why india doesn't wage a month long war today to destroy the economic and military potential of Pakistan? Why hasn't it been already done? Why you are letting Pakistan to strengthen, allowing it initially to even become an atomic power....?
your comparing Israel to pakistan
is that serious,
do you understand they have the best equipped and trained military in the.world bar usa,... and unlimited,supply of Intel.and war material from usa .
you fight israel you fight usa period
their traing western mentality you can never match neither can India.
poor defence
 

arjunk

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Basically what will happen assuming Pakistan has learnt its lessons from 47, 65, 71 and 99:

  1. After recognising the threat of an Indian invasion, Pakistan quickly mobilises around 80% of its forces to the border within 24 hours.
  2. Pakistani forces outnumber Indians in most sectors at this point. In these sectors offensives are launched 10-15km into Indian territory, primarily in Punjab and Rajasthan south-east of Rahim Yar Khan.
  3. At the start of the war, PAF will be able to fly more aircraft at once than the IAF, especially in a single sector. IAF will find it difficult to provide air support while PAF's JF-17 Block I and II aircraft will provide some air support (Block III will likely be reserved for air to air operations against the Rafale and Su-30MKI.)
  4. Pakistan also restarts armed support for Kashmiri militants. Despite India having a large amount of forces in Kashmir, they will deplete their manpower and resources on anti insurgent operations instead of fighting Pakistan. This will sort of even out the playing field and make a situation somewhat similar to East Pakistan.
  5. Pakistan launches constant artillery attacks on Pathankot and Kargil, making it nearly impossible for additional Indian forces to move to Kashmir without taking losses.
  6. Further artillery attacks are launched on Indian military bases near the border.
  7. Kashmiri militants begin destroying Indian ammunition and food storages, attacking airbases, etc.
  8. IAF and PAF take relatively equal losses because PAF retains the first shot capability against all Indian planes except the Rafale. Once most Rafales are taken down then PAF can dedicate more planes to close air support. However, considering the sheer numbers of IAF the majority of PAF operations will likely still be to shoot down Indian planes.
  9. IAF has less AWACS planes than PAF, putting it at a huge disadvantage. Almost all of IAF's AWACS planes are shot down by PAF's PL-15. While PAF loses just as many, if not more to IAF meteors, they have more AWACS planes and can are impacted less.
  10. Pakistan Navy manages to hold back an Indian blockade.
Indian forces are gradually beginning to outnumber Pakistanis across all sectors. It is at this point (around a week into the war) when Pakistan offers peace (which the international community would also want and pressurise India into accepting).

Assuming India has used up most of its ammunition (enough for 2-3 weeks of intense war last I checked) they will accept. Obviously, peace negotiations will go in Pakistan's favour. But what if the war takes a turn for the worse and India refuses to accept peace? What if India has enough ammunition for a month or more of war?

  1. Indian forces now outnumber Pakistanis across all sectors. IBGs take a defensive stance for now, halting the Pakistani advance. Now IAF will fight until PAF is depleted of PL-15s and AIM-120Cs
  2. After a few days to a week, PAF has run out of long range BVR missiles and a large portion of its F-16 and JF-17 fleet are damaged or destroyed. Despite IAF taking heavier losses, their leftover Su-30Mkis, MiG-29s, and Rafales (If any) will be sufficient against the remaining weakened JF-17s and F-16s. Now IAF can focus on close air support.
  3. Indian forces will now try to launch attacks on Rahim Yar Khan. Because of a lack of PAF close air support, they are met with relative success, moving the frontline from 15km into Rajasthan to just 5 within a few days.
  4. Indian IBGs begin to launch offensives across South Punjab and Northern Sindh.
  5. Pakistani forces again slowly retreat, inflicting as many casualties on Indians as possiblein the process. Desert territory is pretty worthless anyway
  6. Indians manage to retake all of the territory Pakistan occupied from them.
  7. Pakistan Navy is mostly destroyed, India begins to inflict a blockade on Karachi.
  8. India is approaching the "Green belt" of Sindh fast. Umerkot has fallen, and Indian forces are now within a few hundred metres of Rahim Yar Khan.
Now how the war progresses depends on whether the Chinese get involved or not. They are two scenarios. Either:

India crosses Pakistan's nuclear threshold by entering the Green Belt
  1. Pakistan immediately launches a barrage of Nasr strikes. 45kt nuclear warheads vaporise entire Indian Brigades within hours.
  2. Indian forces begin to retreat. Those that try to attack deeper into Pakistan are either outnumbered and low on ammunition or killed by heavily armed Pakistani civilians.
  3. The ball is now in India's court. Either they can escalate and turn South Asia into a radioactive wasteland, or they can retreat while what remains of the Pak army can capture/retake as much territory as possible. Pakistani civilians will probably revolt in occupied areas and retake those places.
  4. The international community will go batshit crazy now that nukes are in play. The US, China, Russia, and Europe will do everything in their power to stop the war ASAP. So it would end with Pakistan retaking most of its territory and perhaps even entering 1-5km into India (remember Nasr will not be used on Indian territory because by nuking our own territory India has little justification to retaliate on a strategic scale).
  5. Remember the Kashmiri separatists? Yeah, with India taking so many losses they would pretty much have to give up in Kashmir.
India inevitably provokes the Chinese. Whether this is through a Brahmos strike that kills a Chinese engineer, a Naval attack on Gwadar or Karachi, or violating Pakistan's nuclear threshold.
  1. China immediately launches a 3 pronged attack on Arunachal Pradesh and the Shiliguri corridor in Sikkim. Indian forces now have to travel 1000-2000km to another front, using infrastructure heavily damaged by Pakistani strikes. What remains of the IAF's 4+ generation fleet rushes to Northeast India.
  2. The majority of Indian forces move away from Pakistan; the Pakistani military is of little threat to them, they believe. They have also made significant enough progress into Pakistan that they cannot advance more without crossing the nuclear threshold anyway, and losing a few towns and villages won't make much of a difference to India's victory on this front.
  3. China makes rapid advances in Northeast India, moving 3-5km in just 1 day. Indian military presence here is practically nonexistent because of how they threw massive amounts of soldiers to numerically overwhelm Pakistan.
  4. Chinese J-20s damage and destroy almost every Indian military airbase and ammunition depot in Northern India. Most of the IAF is destroyed or grounded in this large wave of strikes.
  5. Indian infrastructure is also badly damaged.
  6. Now most of the Indian army is neither in Pakistan or in Northeast India; It is stranded in the middle and being bombarded while mobilising.
  7. China captures all of Sikkim within a week of intervention. Northeast India has been cut off.
  8. The PLA arrives in Pakistan with full air support, and begins assisting the Pakistan army in re taking all lost territory.
  9. PLA aircraft and coastal defence systems equipped with anti ship missiles begin damaging Indian carrier groups and other ships off the coast of Pakistan
  10. PLAAF begins massive cluster bombing of Indian troops while they are mobilising
  11. PLA launches massive offensive across the Himalayas.
  12. PLAAF achieves air supremacy over India.
  13. After another week, the Indian Navy begins retreating to the Bay of Bengal as the PLAN is going to arrive soon. Moreover, Pakistan has taken back all its territory and captured territory deep inside Punjab and Kashmir.
  14. PLA breaks through the Himalayas and enters Haryana and Bihar.
  15. Indian nuclear sites are disabled with a massive cyber attack which plunges the whole country into darkness
I don't need to further describe how badly India will be defeated in a two front war.
 

SQ8

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@SQ8
do you want us to give it our own spin?
or just comment on the scenario and how it plays out?

I will forward this page to see ifI can get some view from the veterans who served in the areas.
I really just had thoughts in mind - but, this could be fun if we gave our own spin provided we make it interesting.

for e.g.
while we don’t need to do 16 narratives , I recall the flight sim thing I did years before through a friend where we kept changing scenarios to see what would happen with screenshots thrown in.

After all, if this sim is good enough for BaE and their customers it should be for the discerning tastes of PDF?

What say ye @JamD @HRK @Dazzler @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Bilal. ? Again, when you have nothing better to do and the other "F-16V are coming" discussions finally get tiresome?

One can just start off with the next "opening scenario" - whatever you wish to paint it and lets see how it comes out.
"
Mission
Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
Execution
Using aircraft based at PAF Murid, Minhas, and Skardu, neutralize all stated high value targets as well as other threats such as SAMs and Indian CAP aircraft. In addition, a Hatf 7 cruise missile battery is available for use.
Friendly Forces
PAF Murid
6x Mirage IIIO (F/A)
6x F-16CJ+
4x Z-10
1x Falcon 20 OECM
PAF Minhas
8x JF-17 Blk. 3
6x F-16AM
1x Saab 2000 AEW&C
PAF Skardu
4x Mirage 5F

Do the same for enemy forces - where and how many and then let the sims algorithms do the rest.

I reckon it might be more fun than the usual hyperboles we get??

For all interested - lets do a cut off time for entries by 11AM PST 5/16 and then Ill enter into the sim to generate the outcome
 

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