Because SR occurred in the past, we have some useful insights that SHOULD be included in any simulation.@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa)
28th February 2019 - 0100 Hours
After the losses and smattering from the overwhelming PAF force on the 27th - all hell broke loose in Dehli. There was disbelief coupled with fury for most with the desire to teach Pakistan a terrible lesson. The few cautious voices encouraging reaching out to allies and friends to put pressure on Pakistan instead of all out attack or suggesting putting Balochi or Mohajir faces on TV as part of a wider campaign found themselves silenced or nearly attacked themselves by the more virulent members of the cabinet.
The Indian military brass in general however wanted nothing less than giving Pakistan a heavy blow that in their mind would resemble the shock and awe of the 2003 Gulf war. To them, their "one hand tied" approach with Pakistan over the last few days is what cost 6 aircraft and hundreds of men and critical material on the Loc. If it were up to this leadership and most members of the cabinet, Pakistan would have been hit in its critical nodes on the 26th along with terror leaders. There were cautious voices within the military, those that pointed out that Pakistani air systems had performed better than expected on the 27th and for a bit the PM and the NSA were convinced on using a massive Brahmos strike alone. However, this was not to last as it was thought the Pakistanis would escalate with their own cruise or ballistic systems in kind and drag in the United States and other powers in a nuclear bluff.
But as this was being considered - the hawks had already won over in both the military and cabinet. While the PAF & IAF played chicken over the LoC the Indian military was instructed to give a broad based shock and awe that went beyond the Kashmir region as such and would target Northern Pakistan.
If Pakistan had jammed Indian Radars, India would simply destroy Pakistani ones along with any air defense elements in the way and steamroll through. Those citing that this would lead to full fledged conflict were shot down with explanations of how this would stun the Pakistani establishment and government struggling with a nearly dead economy to simply seek de-escalation. Even if the Pakistanis retaliated, it was surmised that India would raise the nuclear gambit to force world powers to intervene.
The plan was to hit Pakistani military targets all across the LoC and any supporting FOBs and divisional HQs. To give international legitimacy to the massive attack, LeT targets in Muridke and Sheikupura along with a suspected camp in Mansehra would be selected to provide justification on the basis of terrorism - but also to strike fear in the Pakistani civilian population in Lahore with explosions around the city's periphery.
Pakistan had used 40 odd aircraft on the 27th and India would respond with nearly 90 attacking some 60 targets overall. M-777s and Bofors had been moved forward to start a massive bombardment across the LoC on Pakistani targets - while it was expected that the Pakistanis would respond the IAF would attack across the LoC at both designated and targets of opportunity.
The Brahmos option was repurposed - with a massive barrage planned to coincide with interdicting Indian aircraft and hitting multiple targets including key radar systems to blind the Pakistani Air Defense grid. Pakistani retaliation with SSMs was to be expected but by the time it got going world powers would intervene - and if they did strike India could absorb a few blows.
Inklings of movement and intelligence was trickling into Pakistan - but the general mood was that the Indians might just leave at heavy mortars and cross border violations in the spirit of de-escalation. Especially since it was thought that the Indians were becoming aware of what the Chinese were doing in their backyard up north.
But as the clock struck 1am on the morning of the 28th... things were to be very different.
The opening salvo was not delivered by an Indian military system, but rather by a mix of TTP and BLA insurgents assisted by a local criminal gang bought out for less than $20000. The target was PAF Mushaf whose guard post and perimeter was awakened by gunfire along with mortar rounds. @Mr.Meap
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As the base was distracted to rush towards this threat the PAF radar picture seemed to show all quiet on the eastern front as the IAF seemed to have withdrawn its heavy CAPs as well. A EMB-145 Netra was seen in the area along with what was noticed as three il-78 airframes but that could be routine.
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Unknown to the Pakistanis, some 70 Indian aircraft were starting to get airborne - Mirage 2000s armed with Crystal Maze, Spice and LGBs to target the LeT Camps at Muridke, Shiekhupura and Mansehra. SEAD escorts of Su-30MKIs armed with KH-31s and Mirage-2000s with ARMATs.
Jaguar IS flights were gearing up to hit preplanned targets of Ammo Dumps while Mirage 2000s would hit the HQs and FOBs of the Pakistan Army. Some 12 MKIs were focused on fighter sweeps, along with Mig-29UPGs and Mig-21 bisons. Finally, a large bison flight from Srinagar and Pathankot would conduct rocket strikes. Every pilot equipped with NVGs with targets pin pointed- they rolled across the tarmac.
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As the packages got airborne - diversionary caps started flying near the LoC with IAI Searcher and Heron UAVs marking targets for the LoC strikes.
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Bofors and M-777s had their Pakistani forward post targets in range with the UAVs ensuring accuracy. But as the UAVs neared the LoC the PAF Combat Air Patrols were vectored towards them.
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Around 1:15 AM local time - the barrage began against Pakistani targets - as a JF-17 Block-2 flying with a retrofit AESA radar was authorized to shoot down the Heron.
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As the barrage began, so did the launches of the first Brahmos towards a MPDR-45. Meanwhile - a flight of 2 MKIs and 2 Bisons was vectored right across the LoC to engage the JF-17s and clear the way for the strike aircraft expected soon.
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As the alarms bells rang at AHQ and GHQ with the aide to the PM being called furiously on his cell to wake him up - the Brahmos strike crossed the border at Mach 2 heading for the radar situated near Lahore.
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There was little warning to the personnel around the radar - all they heard was a small bang from what seemed to be nothing more than a street light - but then mere milliseconds later the radar and everything within a 100m radius was blown to smithereens. The loss of picture was immediately noticed at AHQ - but there was a Saab 2000 Erieye airborne to still give a clear idea and a misleading conclusion by a senior officer that it may be a follow up terror attack to Sargodha saw this key clue missed.
As the first Indian flight crossed the LoC - both SD-10s and R-77s flew across. The PAF was starting to scramble its alert fighters as 4 F-16s were rushed into the air while 2 more plus 4 JF-17s and 6 F-7PGs were readied from Alert 30 to launch.
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The SD-10 Struck home and a Mig-21 Bison was the first aircraft to go down in flames over Punch as the terrified civilians across both sides of the LoC - already fearful for their lives watched fireworks unfold.
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Meanwhile - this initial sweep continued to engage PAF fighters - but was soon faced with a AIM-120 Barrage from the very deadly F--16s from 11 and 9sqs of the PAF. But the intention, to divert the PAF north first worked.
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As Aim-120s struck home and brought down 2 MKIs - the R-77 Barrage took its toll and the 9sq flight was no more.
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More MKIs from the north now joined the foray as the PAF interceptors scrambled to defend their airspace. Knowing they were outranged - the MKIs flew hot and cold trying to break apart the 2 11sq aircraft - finally getting in range to launch their volley at them but not without losing 1 to a AIM-120
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By this time, it was clear - this wasn't some small skirmish. As the IAF aircraft approached the border - Brahmos batteries unleashed their arsenal in full force.
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Missiles flew back and forth - Air to Air, Crystal Maze Cruise systems and Brahmos - scream towards their respective targets.
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What wasnt known to the IAF was an operational HQ-16 battery near Gujranwala - as the Indian aircraft crossed the border it let loose. Within a few minutes Mirages and Jaguars were jettisoning their loads trying to crane their necks looking for the incoming Sams. 2 went down immediately - MKIs launched KH-31s towards the HQ-16 while the Indian aircraft dropped to low level.
However, the Pakistanis had covered the most common approaches - and RBS-70 and Anza teams awaited guidance.
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1. Agreed - but I would be surprised if the NFZ would be 50-100NM into IndiaBecause SR occurred in the past, we have some useful insights that SHOULD be included in any simulation.
- Post SR, PAF imposed a no-fly zone on IAF. Given this, it is impossible for any drones or AEWACS to be flying near the border. I don't recall the exact length of this NFZ.
- Given the extremely high level of alert, it is again fiction that a radar site going down would go unnoticed.
- PAF has always prepared for an asymmetrical war. It would not have been caught offguard given IAF practiced and boasted about bringing in fighters from all over India. What these preparations are, I don't know. But we could simulate them by giving a very high impact to PAF's EW component. Also, why is there only 1 Saab in the air, when PAF has multiple AEWACs and EW platforms. Also, the AEWACs should be treated as an EW asset that disrupts enemy formations.
- If India really wanted to escalate, it would make approaches from both north and south in the Arabian sea with Migs flying in from their aircraft carrier. This should be included. That would truly spread PAF thin and it would need to pick and choose which battles to fight.
- Also, given the main offensive weapon was F-16 Block 52s, the Indians would plan for a decapitation strike against Shahbaz.
- On 28 Feb, 2020, Pakistan's only defence against a Brahmos saturation strike was nuclear weapons. The only reason why India would move ahead would be a weak leadership that is too cowardly to deploy the nukes. The Indians might be boastful, but they are certainly not stupid. Nuclear strikes on Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata would mean all major IT companies taking out their business from India. It also means a massive disruption in global business. This is something that the bootlickers on both sides: Bajwa, Khan, and the biggest c*nt in the world Modi, all know very well. Both countries treat America as 'My Baap' and would never do anything to hurt American interests. And certainly not 'Trump Tower' when Trump was actually president.