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Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

CriticalThought

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@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa)
28th February 2019 - 0100 Hours

After the losses and smattering from the overwhelming PAF force on the 27th - all hell broke loose in Dehli. There was disbelief coupled with fury for most with the desire to teach Pakistan a terrible lesson. The few cautious voices encouraging reaching out to allies and friends to put pressure on Pakistan instead of all out attack or suggesting putting Balochi or Mohajir faces on TV as part of a wider campaign found themselves silenced or nearly attacked themselves by the more virulent members of the cabinet.

The Indian military brass in general however wanted nothing less than giving Pakistan a heavy blow that in their mind would resemble the shock and awe of the 2003 Gulf war. To them, their "one hand tied" approach with Pakistan over the last few days is what cost 6 aircraft and hundreds of men and critical material on the Loc. If it were up to this leadership and most members of the cabinet, Pakistan would have been hit in its critical nodes on the 26th along with terror leaders. There were cautious voices within the military, those that pointed out that Pakistani air systems had performed better than expected on the 27th and for a bit the PM and the NSA were convinced on using a massive Brahmos strike alone. However, this was not to last as it was thought the Pakistanis would escalate with their own cruise or ballistic systems in kind and drag in the United States and other powers in a nuclear bluff.

But as this was being considered - the hawks had already won over in both the military and cabinet. While the PAF & IAF played chicken over the LoC the Indian military was instructed to give a broad based shock and awe that went beyond the Kashmir region as such and would target Northern Pakistan.

If Pakistan had jammed Indian Radars, India would simply destroy Pakistani ones along with any air defense elements in the way and steamroll through. Those citing that this would lead to full fledged conflict were shot down with explanations of how this would stun the Pakistani establishment and government struggling with a nearly dead economy to simply seek de-escalation. Even if the Pakistanis retaliated, it was surmised that India would raise the nuclear gambit to force world powers to intervene.

The plan was to hit Pakistani military targets all across the LoC and any supporting FOBs and divisional HQs. To give international legitimacy to the massive attack, LeT targets in Muridke and Sheikupura along with a suspected camp in Mansehra would be selected to provide justification on the basis of terrorism - but also to strike fear in the Pakistani civilian population in Lahore with explosions around the city's periphery.

Pakistan had used 40 odd aircraft on the 27th and India would respond with nearly 90 attacking some 60 targets overall. M-777s and Bofors had been moved forward to start a massive bombardment across the LoC on Pakistani targets - while it was expected that the Pakistanis would respond the IAF would attack across the LoC at both designated and targets of opportunity.

The Brahmos option was repurposed - with a massive barrage planned to coincide with interdicting Indian aircraft and hitting multiple targets including key radar systems to blind the Pakistani Air Defense grid. Pakistani retaliation with SSMs was to be expected but by the time it got going world powers would intervene - and if they did strike India could absorb a few blows.

Inklings of movement and intelligence was trickling into Pakistan - but the general mood was that the Indians might just leave at heavy mortars and cross border violations in the spirit of de-escalation. Especially since it was thought that the Indians were becoming aware of what the Chinese were doing in their backyard up north.

But as the clock struck 1am on the morning of the 28th... things were to be very different.

The opening salvo was not delivered by an Indian military system, but rather by a mix of TTP and BLA insurgents assisted by a local criminal gang bought out for less than $20000. The target was PAF Mushaf whose guard post and perimeter was awakened by gunfire along with mortar rounds. @Mr.Meap
View attachment 751984

As the base was distracted to rush towards this threat the PAF radar picture seemed to show all quiet on the eastern front as the IAF seemed to have withdrawn its heavy CAPs as well. A EMB-145 Netra was seen in the area along with what was noticed as three il-78 airframes but that could be routine.

View attachment 751985

Unknown to the Pakistanis, some 70 Indian aircraft were starting to get airborne - Mirage 2000s armed with Crystal Maze, Spice and LGBs to target the LeT Camps at Muridke, Shiekhupura and Mansehra. SEAD escorts of Su-30MKIs armed with KH-31s and Mirage-2000s with ARMATs.
Jaguar IS flights were gearing up to hit preplanned targets of Ammo Dumps while Mirage 2000s would hit the HQs and FOBs of the Pakistan Army. Some 12 MKIs were focused on fighter sweeps, along with Mig-29UPGs and Mig-21 bisons. Finally, a large bison flight from Srinagar and Pathankot would conduct rocket strikes. Every pilot equipped with NVGs with targets pin pointed- they rolled across the tarmac.

View attachment 751986

As the packages got airborne - diversionary caps started flying near the LoC with IAI Searcher and Heron UAVs marking targets for the LoC strikes.
View attachment 751987

Bofors and M-777s had their Pakistani forward post targets in range with the UAVs ensuring accuracy. But as the UAVs neared the LoC the PAF Combat Air Patrols were vectored towards them.

View attachment 751989

View attachment 751990

Around 1:15 AM local time - the barrage began against Pakistani targets - as a JF-17 Block-2 flying with a retrofit AESA radar was authorized to shoot down the Heron.
View attachment 751992

As the barrage began, so did the launches of the first Brahmos towards a MPDR-45. Meanwhile - a flight of 2 MKIs and 2 Bisons was vectored right across the LoC to engage the JF-17s and clear the way for the strike aircraft expected soon.

View attachment 751993

As the alarms bells rang at AHQ and GHQ with the aide to the PM being called furiously on his cell to wake him up - the Brahmos strike crossed the border at Mach 2 heading for the radar situated near Lahore.
View attachment 751994
View attachment 751995

There was little warning to the personnel around the radar - all they heard was a small bang from what seemed to be nothing more than a street light - but then mere milliseconds later the radar and everything within a 100m radius was blown to smithereens. The loss of picture was immediately noticed at AHQ - but there was a Saab 2000 Erieye airborne to still give a clear idea and a misleading conclusion by a senior officer that it may be a follow up terror attack to Sargodha saw this key clue missed.

As the first Indian flight crossed the LoC - both SD-10s and R-77s flew across. The PAF was starting to scramble its alert fighters as 4 F-16s were rushed into the air while 2 more plus 4 JF-17s and 6 F-7PGs were readied from Alert 30 to launch.

View attachment 751997

The SD-10 Struck home and a Mig-21 Bison was the first aircraft to go down in flames over Punch as the terrified civilians across both sides of the LoC - already fearful for their lives watched fireworks unfold.
View attachment 751996
Meanwhile - this initial sweep continued to engage PAF fighters - but was soon faced with a AIM-120 Barrage from the very deadly F--16s from 11 and 9sqs of the PAF. But the intention, to divert the PAF north first worked.
View attachment 751998

As Aim-120s struck home and brought down 2 MKIs - the R-77 Barrage took its toll and the 9sq flight was no more.
View attachment 751999

More MKIs from the north now joined the foray as the PAF interceptors scrambled to defend their airspace. Knowing they were outranged - the MKIs flew hot and cold trying to break apart the 2 11sq aircraft - finally getting in range to launch their volley at them but not without losing 1 to a AIM-120
View attachment 752000

By this time, it was clear - this wasn't some small skirmish. As the IAF aircraft approached the border - Brahmos batteries unleashed their arsenal in full force.

View attachment 752001

Missiles flew back and forth - Air to Air, Crystal Maze Cruise systems and Brahmos - scream towards their respective targets.

View attachment 752002

What wasnt known to the IAF was an operational HQ-16 battery near Gujranwala - as the Indian aircraft crossed the border it let loose. Within a few minutes Mirages and Jaguars were jettisoning their loads trying to crane their necks looking for the incoming Sams. 2 went down immediately - MKIs launched KH-31s towards the HQ-16 while the Indian aircraft dropped to low level.

However, the Pakistanis had covered the most common approaches - and RBS-70 and Anza teams awaited guidance.

View attachment 752003
Because SR occurred in the past, we have some useful insights that SHOULD be included in any simulation.

  1. Post SR, PAF imposed a no-fly zone on IAF. Given this, it is impossible for any drones or AEWACS to be flying near the border. I don't recall the exact length of this NFZ.
  2. Given the extremely high level of alert, it is again fiction that a radar site going down would go unnoticed.
  3. PAF has always prepared for an asymmetrical war. It would not have been caught offguard given IAF practiced and boasted about bringing in fighters from all over India. What these preparations are, I don't know. But we could simulate them by giving a very high impact to PAF's EW component. Also, why is there only 1 Saab in the air, when PAF has multiple AEWACs and EW platforms. Also, the AEWACs should be treated as an EW asset that disrupts enemy formations.
  4. If India really wanted to escalate, it would make approaches from both north and south in the Arabian sea with Migs flying in from their aircraft carrier. This should be included. That would truly spread PAF thin and it would need to pick and choose which battles to fight.
  5. Also, given the main offensive weapon was F-16 Block 52s, the Indians would plan for a decapitation strike against Shahbaz.
  6. On 28 Feb, 2020, Pakistan's only defence against a Brahmos saturation strike was nuclear weapons. The only reason why India would move ahead would be a weak leadership that is too cowardly to deploy the nukes. The Indians might be boastful, but they are certainly not stupid. Nuclear strikes on Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata would mean all major IT companies taking out their business from India. It also means a massive disruption in global business. This is something that the bootlickers on both sides: Bajwa, Khan, and the biggest c*nt in the world Modi, all know very well. Both countries treat America as 'My Baap' and would never do anything to hurt American interests. And certainly not 'Trump Tower' when Trump was actually president.
 

SQ8

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Because SR occurred in the past, we have some useful insights that SHOULD be included in any simulation.

  1. Post SR, PAF imposed a no-fly zone on IAF. Given this, it is impossible for any drones or AEWACS to be flying near the border. I don't recall the exact length of this NFZ.
  2. Given the extremely high level of alert, it is again fiction that a radar site going down would go unnoticed.
  3. PAF has always prepared for an asymmetrical war. It would not have been caught offguard given IAF practiced and boasted about bringing in fighters from all over India. What these preparations are, I don't know. But we could simulate them by giving a very high impact to PAF's EW component. Also, why is there only 1 Saab in the air, when PAF has multiple AEWACs and EW platforms. Also, the AEWACs should be treated as an EW asset that disrupts enemy formations.
  4. If India really wanted to escalate, it would make approaches from both north and south in the Arabian sea with Migs flying in from their aircraft carrier. This should be included. That would truly spread PAF thin and it would need to pick and choose which battles to fight.
  5. Also, given the main offensive weapon was F-16 Block 52s, the Indians would plan for a decapitation strike against Shahbaz.
  6. On 28 Feb, 2020, Pakistan's only defence against a Brahmos saturation strike was nuclear weapons. The only reason why India would move ahead would be a weak leadership that is too cowardly to deploy the nukes. The Indians might be boastful, but they are certainly not stupid. Nuclear strikes on Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata would mean all major IT companies taking out their business from India. It also means a massive disruption in global business. This is something that the bootlickers on both sides: Bajwa, Khan, and the biggest c*nt in the world Modi, all know very well. Both countries treat America as 'My Baap' and would never do anything to hurt American interests. And certainly not 'Trump Tower' when Trump was actually president.
1. Agreed - but I would be surprised if the NFZ would be 50-100NM into India

2. I'll reiterate - I am forcing "stupid decisions and severe human error". for e.g in 71, as @PanzerKiel , 4 squadrons for the most part sat out the war, certain PAF officers actively sabotaged offensive suggestions with strike recalled at the last minute.

3. The assumption is that the focus is all on the northern sector - PAF may have been expecting a strike on its airbases in the north or front line targets only

4. 28th Feb 2019 (It has been over 2.4 years now! It is difficult to predict politics - which is why "2" applies - we are here to check systems and tactics , less concerned about painting the actual caricatures of leaders.
 

SQ8

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@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @PanzerKiel @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @White Lion @Mr.Meap @Jf-17 block 3 @CrazyZ
28th February 2019- 4:00AM

As the tail end of the Indian strikes retreated - and additional PAF interceptors were airborne; the Pakistani National Security Council was finally gathered in person in a quickly secured location. A key minister who went AWOL wasnt noticed, his input generally seen as either pessimistic or nearly irrelevant.
Consternation was through the roof, the NSA had predicted an India response but it wasnt expected at this level nor were internal threats expected to cause such issues. Why were there delays in getting key intelligence of Brahmos movements? The Indian response time was faster than expected - there were no dithering or delays.

As the accusations and counter accusations flew - the PM who was already in a form of shell shock and mostly nodding his head lost in thought was interrupted by an irate VCAS and Intel chief - "Sir, we need to strike back before the Indians lock down their airspace again" - no response.. "Sir" - The COAS without his usual baritone start " Sir, my recommendation is to do a limited strike back at Indian targets and then get the Americans involved - I have sent the message to CENTCOM already" - This seemed to shake the PM from his trance as the NSA questioned the COAS "Why would you do that? we have options to activate now and this would compromise them!" - The COAS, not used to being questioned this harshly even by the prime minister went silent for a moment as the PM finally spoke "Please - what are the options?"

28th February - 5:00AM
Indian positions along the LoC were still firing - heavy mortars with the heavy artillery going silent for a while as the Pakistan Army moved up its assets to start hitting back. Bakhtar Shikan teams , recoilless rifles were the first line along with Howitzers opening up from the rear. It was time for Indian troops to hear the steel rain.
28th Morn5.PNG



But from the greenery near Jhelum a A-100 MBRL emerged - its target were the Indian artillery positions and a Div FOB.
28th Morn6.PNG


Another A-100 quietly emerged near Narowal from an embankment - but it wasn't just aiming for the LoC, Pathankot AB was just at the edge of its striking range, but more importantly - the Indians had a depot there with more than a quarter of a mechanized division parked there. The MLRSs would fire a mix of Anti-Armor and Anti-Personnel mines. Pathankot had its HAS, but that did not mean taxiways and barracks all around could not be walking minefields.

But the Pakistani response wasnt done here - the message to be delivered was clear to India. This is total war from this point onwards and the ladder is very steep. If India does not stop from what this will bring, then every weapon type will be on the table and the subcontinent a desolate wasteland in most places where life once thrived.

Part of this plan to demonstrate reach emerged near a bunch of inconspicuous warehouses close to PAF Bholari , right where the N-5 motorway crosses over Karachi Canal. 2 Shaheen-IIA TEL's emerged - capable of targeting all of mainland India
28th Morn2.PNG


Their target was less relevant to the current hot zone and more as a symbolic one: Pulgaon Central Ammunition Depot was still the largest ammunition depot in the region, having gained notoriety after a string of accidents recently - the Indian army was looking to close it down and spread the share to more modern facilities. But as the Shaheen-IIA's TEL erected the missiles the current calm at Pulgaon was soon to be shattered.
28th Morn13.PNG


Further north, near the Changa Manga national forest and at the crossing of Changa Manga Chumian road two more shelters that from the top were camouflaged and covered with Foliage opened up with Shaheen-1 systems trundling out - their target was Bakshi ka Talab Airbase with its Su-30MKIs parked in open air shelters. The IAF had decided that these systems were simply too out of reach of the Pakistan air force and could safely keep them out here.
28th Morn3.PNG


Finally, near Gujrawala and Sargodha - Babur systems rolled out, their targets were Indian radar installations to give three times the shock to the ADGE that Pakistan received and SAM systems near Halwara and Ambala to soften them up for strikes.
28th Morn4.PNG



Indian CAPs were being replaced when the first inkling on their side came as two firefinding radars suddenly gave alerts and the scopes on the nearest AD radars saw the clutter of MBRL launches guided by a quietly loitering UAV.

28th Morn7.PNG


As the A-100 rockets neared the Pathankot area, The Hatf launchers near Gujranwala opened up and the Pakistani ripose was in full swing.

28th Morn8.PNG
 
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SQ8

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As this was happening , a F-16 CAP engaged Indian aircraft from the Pakistani side of the border as Muezzins below prepared to give their call to prayer.
28th Morn9.PNG


2 MKIs of 221 sq who had just come into replace the previous CAP did their best to be Amraam Dodgers, but the AIM-120C isn't forgiving. Meanwhile, Babur missiles whizzed past the border near Narowal.
28th Morn10.PNG


Around the same time, a Shaheen-1A following a very flat trajectory was about to smack into an Indian Radar installation close to the border.
28th Morn11.PNG


Some 15 minutes before this, the next Phase of the Pakistani riposte was put into full swing. JF-17s from Skardu would hit the Jammu & Kashmir Light rifles HQ while composite flights of Mirages and F-16s would strike Ambala and Halwara. Escorted by JF-17s on SEAD tasks.
28th Morn12.PNG


To the Indians, it was clear what was happening and their leadership had just learnt to smile after a day when those were interrupted by panicked Air Defense and intelligence warnings. Pakistani ballistic missiles were suspected to be moving and aircraft were spotted in the air. Was it a limited nuclear strike to cripple Indian decision making following by air raids at Indian air bases? Was it a full blown nuclear strike? was it conventional?
28th Morn14.PNG

As the Indian PM stammered amid the multiple voices with their NSA sweating, he tried to reach for the hotline but a Swamy screamed No and suggested full retaliation. He was opposed by the chiefs for the first time saying they don't have information but suggesting bringing Indian Nuclear systems to full readiness. The Prime minister and his political advisors only wanted to win the election to rule India for another 5 years and maybe ask for a special third term, but it seemed their gamble would leave them nothing but gamma radiation to try and get votes from. As these thoughts flew into his head - the IAF Chief screamed into the phone "What do you mean our picture is half gone? Even the Elta?"
28th Morn15.PNG

Elsewhere, the Shaheen-IIA RVs hit Bakshi ka Talab and the Pulgaon Ammo depot. The large shelter collapsed under the 1000 pound kinetic warhead and knocking out 5 MKIs underneath it.

At Pulgaon, explosions after explosions rocked the nearby civilian population as the 10m CEP for IRBM was more than enough to cause piles of missile and AAA ammunition to cook off.



The JF-17s from Skardu flew NoE over the harsh karokaram terrain and emerged right behind any Indian Air Defense zones - their REKs pummeling into barracks, offices and radio communication centers of the JAK HQ, where a certain visiting Indian Lieutenant General, A major general and CO of two FoBs along with their ADCs were not to emerge from the camouflaged building with the red and white paths.

As the JF-17s turned back however, two 51sq Bisons took chase with R-77s which made their mark as the JF-17s slammed into the mountains in flames.
28th Morn16.PNG


Down south, PAF fighter sweeps and escorts for the Halwara and Ambala strikes were directed to Indian interceptors by a Saab-2000 flight and a ZDK providing backup. A Mig-21 had barely rotated off the runway from Suratgarh when the AMRAAM struck him. However, him and his wingman did manage to get 4 R-77s off the rail which found their mark and a F-16 was blown to bits.

28th Morn17.PNG


The Vipers continued to engage, plowing through defending MKIs using AMRAAMS with no losses - up north, a F-16 flight chased a Phalcon and a Il-78 down - tit for tat but leaving it with barely enough fumes to recover at Lahore.
28th Morn19.PNG
28th Morn20.PNG



The Halwara and Ambala strike faced SAMs further into India, its SEAD escort having gone Winchester giving it a door in and the Falcon 20 EW escort pulling back. 2 further mirages were lost but the H-4 strikes went through. It was later surmised that a Raad CM strike might have prevented the losses but the engineers were unable to load targeting data in time.

As the First H-4 struck the known pilot shelters and ammo dumps at Ambala, along with striking open revetments , F-16 Block-52s released GBU-24s into the door entrances of main hangers. Halwara also saw H-4s and JDAMs - blowing up runway intersections, and knocking the control tower out.
28th Morn21.PNG


Just as these aircraft turned around, the phone rang in the Pakistani PM's office - it was the American secretary of state - he was put on hold as the PM was currently talking to a certain Saudi Crown prince and had to call back a Turkish president. Meanwhile, in the Indian PM's office a voice emphasized on the other side "Don't worry about Jaina!, we will take care of them and I will negotiate with Pakistan"


Tally:
INDIAN LOSSES:

-------------------------------
6x 130mm M-46 Catapult Self-Propelled Howitzer [Cargo] A-100, Pakistan Howitzer
6x 40mm/70 Single Bofors [Flycatcher Mk1 FCR] [Cargo]
1x A-50E/I Mainstay - AIM-120 from F-16
18x Ajeya Main Battle Tank [Cargo]
2x Ammo Shelter - Shaheen-IIA
8x BMP-2 Sarath [AT-5 Spandrel A] IFV [Cargo]
11x Building (Barracks) A-100, Babur, JF-17
2x Building (Very Large Leadership Compound) - REK & Babur
10x Building (Watch Tower) - Pakistani Mortars and Bakhtar Shikan teams
1x Il-78MKI Midas - AIM-120 from F-16
3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] -- SD-10 , AIM-120
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A -- SD-10
2x Mirage 2000H-5 - AIM-120 from F-16
1x Radar (Master-T) - Babur
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo] - MAR-1, LD-10
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo] - A-100
2x Searcher II UAV - PL-9, SD-10
2x Su-30MKI Flanker H - AIM-120 from F-16
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H - AIM-120 from F-16, SD-10
2x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo] - Shaheen-1A
4x Vehicle (Flycatcher Mk1) [Cargo] - Babur
2x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo] -Babur
1x ELTA M/2080 - Shaheen-1A

Pakistan losses:
1x Burraq [CH-3 Derivative] UAV - Su-30MKI
1x F-16AM Falcon MLU - Mig-21 Bison
1x F-16BM Falcon MLU - Mirage 2000
2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2 - Mig-21 Bison
1x Mirage 5DR - - Akash Sam
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III] - Barak-8 Sam
1x Mirage IIIO(F/A) [ROSE I]- Barak-8 Sam

End note: The Bison R-77 Combo is more effective at close and launching than Su-30MKis loaded with 6xR-77s
 
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