What's new

Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

SQ8

ADVISORS
Mar 28, 2009
34,645
393
71,685
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:

"Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."

It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester

https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822

They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do

@Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino

Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?:p:

Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.

The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):

1. Border Skirmish
Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.

Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.

Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
(Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)

Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)

2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)
Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.

Situation
Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.

Mission
Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
PAF Murid
PAF Minhas
PAF Mianwali
PAF Rafiqui
PAF Shahbaz
PAF Faisal
PAF Masroor
In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this)

3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)
After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)
The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.

Situation
Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
Mission
Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)

4. Doomsday Clock (India)
Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.

Situation
Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.

Mission
Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. ( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)

5. Flaming Seas (played as India)
After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.

Situation
INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
Mission
Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.

6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)
Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.

Situation
India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.

Mission
Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)

7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)
The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.

Situation
Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.

Mission
Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
(Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)

8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)
The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.

Situation
China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
Mission
Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.

(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)

9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)
In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
Situation
American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... :disagree:)
In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
Mission
Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)

10. Crackdown(Played as USA)
It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan( Who wouldnt??)

Situation
Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
Mission
Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well. ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)

11. Escalation (Played as USA)
A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
Situation
Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
Mission
Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar(Et tu - Brutus??!) is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)

12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)
Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
India has ambitious plans(always have) for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
Situation
The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
Mission
Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi(Good luck surviving that hell!). The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.

13. Over The Hump (Played as India)

The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.

China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
Situation
In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
Mission
Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)

14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)

In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.

Situation
Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
Mission
Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)

15. Race Against The Clock
Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
Situation
Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
Mission
Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes


And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.
 
Last edited:

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
11,635
22
15,945
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)
The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
I doubt any possible war happen during 2020-2035 period since both countries will focus on developing the economy and avoid any war.

I dont like the war between Pakistan and India and the help from Muslim nations I believe will only happen if Pakistan is in defensive position since if Pakistan in the offensive it means sending military help will only escalate and prolong the war.

Beyond 2035 scenario

The first help I believe will be sending MALE UCAV and its operator to Pakistan, and in order to do so need strong enough navy armada to bring them to Pakistan.

1621044274918.png


And Indonesian PT PAL is designing unmanned submarine where I think in 2035 above we will have many of them inshaAllah. The unmanned submarine will be the next to be send if India doesnt stop its offensive.

If India is lead by crazy and India offensive never stop, Indonesia will likely send KF 21/IFX and their UCAV STEALTH wingman drone (InshaAllah we will develop them).

1621045153141.png



And Pakistan needs to sell at least 20 nuclear head to Indonesia that can be integrated into submarine missiles, this will also give financial help to Pakistan and in the other hand give assurance that there will be nuclear war if India nuke Indonesia.

--------------------------------------------------------------

All of this will only happen under Indonesia being lead by Nationalist Religius-Islamist coalition, this coalition has ruled democratic Indonesia in several period (1998-1999-Habibie), (1999-2002 Abdurrahman Wahid), (2004-2014 Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono)

Other condition that should happen :

1. Indonesia stay with KF 21 program and the program is successful
2. Indonesia MALE UCAV/wingman STEALTH UCAV/unmanned submarine program are completed and successful
3. Indonesia economy keep growing at 5.5-6.5 percent growth until 2045 that could possibly make the country become more capable to solve world problem beyond its own border, starting at 2035
 
Last edited:

JamD

FULL MEMBER
Mar 26, 2015
1,432
58
4,193
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:

"Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."

It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester

https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822

They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do

@Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino

Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?:p:

Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.

The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):

1. Border Skirmish
Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.

Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.

Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
(Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)

Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)

2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)
Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.

Situation
Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.

Mission
Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
PAF Murid
PAF Minhas
PAF Mianwali
PAF Rafiqui
PAF Shahbaz
PAF Faisal
PAF Masroor
In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this)

3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)
After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)
The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.

Situation
Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
Mission
Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)

4. Doomsday Clock (India)
Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.

Situation
Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.

Mission
Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. ( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)

5. Flaming Seas (played as India)
After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.

Situation
INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
Mission
Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.

6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)
Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.

Situation
India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.

Mission
Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)

7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)
The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.

Situation
Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.

Mission
Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
(Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)

8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)
The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.

Situation
China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
Mission
Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.

(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)

9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)
In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
Situation
American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... :disagree:)
In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
Mission
Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)

10. Crackdown(Played as USA)
It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan( Who wouldnt??)

Situation
Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
Mission
Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well. ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)

11. Escalation (Played as USA)
A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
Situation
Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
Mission
Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar(Et tu - Brutus??!) is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)

12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)
Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
India has ambitious plans(always have) for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
Situation
The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
Mission
Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi(Good luck surviving that hell!). The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.

13. Over The Hump (Played as India)

The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.

China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
Situation
In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
Mission
Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)

14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)

In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.

Situation
Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
Mission
Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)

15. Race Against The Clock
Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
Situation
Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
Mission
Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes


And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.
Maybe it's just me but that provided more a perspective on how the west sees the region, rather than what might actually take place. Granted that it is nearly impossible to predict such things but when you make one party a fumbling idiot (Pakistan) then it sort of reads like something where the conclusion was decided beforehand and "predictions" made to fit the conclusion.

Major differences from what I think would really happen are what you have already said:
1. No help will come.
2. Nukes will fly (or will be threatened) much sooner.
3. Mountain alliance? What garbage

Also, it is kind of dumb how China is fully involved but is doing nothing on its border with India. Almost like they're intentionally avoiding the dreaded two-front war.

Pakistani coastal missile batteries are mentioned, but apparently those don't work at all, and instant blockade lol.

Not sure if I am frustrated by the fact that they destroy Pakistan or by how stupidly this plays out lol.


Basically me after reading this:
1621045566258.png
 

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
11,635
22
15,945
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
If India in the offensive, there will be oil and gas embargo from Muslim nations, and I believe countries such as USA and Russia with huge oil and gas production will not help India to deal with its oil and gas supply deficit. It is because USA and Russia will likely stay neutral due to the influence of OIC nations. USA doesnt want Muslim countries side with China and Russia doesnt want to have bad relation with Muslim countries due to its rivalry with USA
 

Bilal.

SENIOR MEMBER
Aug 9, 2013
4,375
9
5,623
Maybe it's just me but that provided more a perspective on how the west sees the region, rather than what might actually take place. Granted that it is nearly impossible to predict such things but when you make one party a fumbling idiot (Pakistan) then it sort of reads like something where the conclusion was decided beforehand and "predictions" made to fit the conclusion.

Major differences from what I think would really happen are what you have already said:
1. No help will come.
2. Nukes will fly (or will be threatened) much sooner.
3. Mountain alliance? What garbage


Also, it is kind of dumb how China is fully involved but is doing nothing on its border with India. Almost like they're intentionally avoiding the dreaded two-front war.

Pakistani coastal missile batteries are mentioned, but apparently those don't work at all, and instant blockade lol.

Not sure if I am frustrated by the fact that they destroy Pakistan or by how stupidly this plays out lol.


Basically me after reading this:
View attachment 743798
Exactly, also couple of more points:

1. Ormara and more importantly Gwadar (both absent in the simulation) will make the blockade and pinning down of PN much more complicated.

2. the Casus Belli for US is extremely dumb:
A) America would coordinate with all parties in a contested air-space
B) Even if it doesn’t due to ulterior motives. Pakistan won’t hand over a perfect justification to them by engaging their rescue flights.

In any case, nukes would fly much much earlier then what was been allowed.

P.S.: Saudi F15 and Indonesian SU30. looool.
 

Hakikat ve Hikmet

ELITE MEMBER
Nov 14, 2015
12,508
16
32,097
Country
United States
Location
United States
Here’s a naive scenario from me (Fools dare where angels fear):

Pak-Sino Joint Ops:

EW: the Indian EM spectrum is blocked from all sides (West, North, East, South via land, air, sea and space based assets). Phantom images are generated. Take out the Indian spy satellites via anti satellite missiles.

Strategic sabotage: Indian strategic sites (AD, nukes, missiles, air bases, transportation, communication, power, ports, logistics, administrative, banking etc.) via cyber warfare, sleeper cells, pinpoint missiles, long range loitering munitions etc. attacks. Generous usage of EMP, directed energy weapons etc. is allowed. Feed as much misinformation as possible to the gullible Indian common folks.

Unmanned attacks: AI driven air, land and sea based unmanned assets using SOM, guided bombs etc. taking out the forward positions, AD, artillery, tanks etc. And, they are directing long range artillery, rocket etc. attacks on the Indian positions along LOC, LAC, IB etc.

Air attacks: amongst complete COVID style chaos inside India the manned jets go for air-to-air, air-to-ground and air-to-sea targets 02-27 style with complete air superiority.

Land ops: amidst the complete air superiority a Turkish-style drone based warfare to clear the remaining points of the resistances in Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal, Arunachal, Sikim, Chicken’s neck and South Tibet is undertaken with the fanfare.

Naval ops: submarines of all sorts are employed along with anti-submarine ops along the usual channels. Indian carriers and are other surface assets are taken out via missiles.

Crumbling India: Seeing the devastating effects of the non-contact warfare India asks for ceasefire while all the Pak-Sino objectives have got achieved.
 
Last edited:

SQ8

ADVISORS
Mar 28, 2009
34,645
393
71,685
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Maybe it's just me but that provided more a perspective on how the west sees the region, rather than what might actually take place. Granted that it is nearly impossible to predict such things but when you make one party a fumbling idiot (Pakistan) then it sort of reads like something where the conclusion was decided beforehand and "predictions" made to fit the conclusion.

Major differences from what I think would really happen are what you have already said:
1. No help will come.
2. Nukes will fly (or will be threatened) much sooner.
3. Mountain alliance? What garbage

Also, it is kind of dumb how China is fully involved but is doing nothing on its border with India. Almost like they're intentionally avoiding the dreaded two-front war.

Pakistani coastal missile batteries are mentioned, but apparently those don't work at all, and instant blockade lol.

Not sure if I am frustrated by the fact that they destroy Pakistan or by how stupidly this plays out lol.


Basically me after reading this:
View attachment 743798
I was wondering who I was forgetting - that mountain alliance is really just a forced attempt to put Pakistan in a losing situation from get go. PTM is a nuisance along with TTP on the other side but no mass defections are ever taking place unless a massive breakdown of command occurs(I am talking mass political incarceration or some generals being executed)
 

Bilal.

SENIOR MEMBER
Aug 9, 2013
4,375
9
5,623
Basically, someone had 3 broad ideas:

- Phase1: Pakistan vs India. Pakistan will be nearly defeated and will be marred by insurgencies while at it (very 2009ish)

- Phase2: China will intervene and turn the tide

- Phase3: US jumps in and wins the day

The rest is a lot of wishful thinking to back these 3 broad points to fill the details of an already forgone conclusion someone has in their mind for the “simulation”.
 

SQ8

ADVISORS
Mar 28, 2009
34,645
393
71,685
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Basically, someone had 3 broad ideas:

- Phase1: Pakistan vs India. Pakistan will be nearly defeated and will be marred by insurgencies while at it (very 2009ish)

- Phase2: China will intervene and turn the tide

- Phase3: US jumps in and wins the day

The rest is a lot of wishful thinking to back these 3 broad points to fill the details of an already forgone conclusion someone has in their mind for the “simulation”.
Then here is the question - what is the real scenario?
 

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
11,635
22
15,945
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
Pakistan is the only nuclear bomb maker within Muslim world, this is a very strategic position so Muslim countries will likely help Pakistan not to be invaded by India. It is also a matter of survival for other Muslim countries. So the war will turn into India vs Muslim countries and the nuclear warhead will be distributed to all major Muslim nations that will help Pakistan.

It is in the condition where Pakistan get overwhelmed by India attack and could be invaded if there is no significant help
 

Bilal.

SENIOR MEMBER
Aug 9, 2013
4,375
9
5,623
Then here is the question - what is the real scenario?
That is a million dollar question. We wouldn’t even be able to predict how a Feb 2019 (a very limited scale op) like situation will conclude, before it did take place.

But one thing I do believe is that the appetite for a full scale war of the type discussed here is almost non existent on both Pakistan and India side and even less so for the world community given the nuclear angle.

So, most likely:

1) Bilateral de-escalation will happen much earlier
2) De-escalation under international pressure will happen much earlier if point#1 does not happen
 

Tipu7

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Aug 8, 2014
5,012
89
13,153
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Honestly, it's ridiculous situation buildup. Good from a movie perspective, but far far away from reality.

In sum, it's Poor understanding of regional politics, strategic frameworks, doctrinal posture and force employments related to this region. Heck, almost a dozen times the nuclear threshold was breached even before the US led mission was assigned to eliminate Pakistan nuclear weapons...
 

SQ8

ADVISORS
Mar 28, 2009
34,645
393
71,685
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Honestly, it's ridiculous situation buildup. Good from a movie perspective, but far far away from reality.

In sum, it's Poor understanding of regional politics, strategic frameworks, doctrinal posture and force employments related to this region. Heck, almost a dozen times the nuclear threshold was breached even before the US led mission was assigned to eliminate Pakistan nuclear weapons...
But - isn’t that the prevailing attitudes driving think tanks in the US? Those same ones thay brief senators and other influentials
 

JamD

FULL MEMBER
Mar 26, 2015
1,432
58
4,193
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
Perhaps this is just a phase for me but I am really into saturating systems with decoys these days. If any side can saturate the other's defenses then overwhelming them becomes much much easier. But that is easier said than done. I think they key bottleneck here is cost/numbers. If we can figure out a decoy that can be deployed in the hundreds of thousands for cheap, then it can overwhelm even the fanciest systems.

To be more specific:
1. Pakistan launches 1000s of air-launched or ground-launched decoys at IAF bases to soften them up for airstrikes.
2. Pakistan launches 100s of sub- or pontoon-launched at whatever flotilla is blockading Karachi, making room for C-802 armed JF-17s to break through (they have little chance of success on their own).

Not even sure if this is possible with today's technology. Key technical challenges:
1. Range: have the decoy go from launch to it's target - and not become as expensive as a cruise missile.
2. Cost: the design and production be extremely extremely cheap so we can produces 100s of thousands. It should cost less than a Barak 8 to produce and launch a decoy which wastes a Barak 8.
3. Possible use of electronic spoofing: related to cost and range but if possible each decoy looks like multiple targets, thus increasing its effectiveness at wearing down a defense.

Why could/should Pakistan invest in (or at least look into) this?
1. Counteract India's numerical and financial superiority by wasting it's resources.
2. IF (big if) we can manage to create, produce, and deploy such systems, then this can be a game changer (CPEC wala nahin lol).

Then here is the question - what is the real scenario?
That is indeed THE question.

Question 1: Does China intervene initially?
Option A: China scares India into standing down.
Option B: China is not able to scare India into standing down. China will not directly intervene right now.
Selecting option B, moving on.

Question 2A: How well does PAF do?
Option A: 27 Feb everywhere and is able to blunt IA's advances by establishing air superiority - not likely at all. 27 feb was one carefully choreographed operation that relied on LOCAL numerical and technological superiority. PAF cannot do this everywhere all the time.
Option B: PAF fights for a war of attrition for a week or two. After this PAF is severely limited in operations. Yes IAF has been given a good beating but there's a whole lot more of IAF left.
Select option B.

Question 2B: How well does PN do?
Option A: PN keeps the IN at bay through the use of coastal cruise missiles, submarines, and naval CAP by PAF JF-17s. This can actually go on for much longer than PAF can hold it out. 3-4 weeks maybe? Before India is able to hunt most of our subs and destroy most coastal batteries. PAF going down will of course speed this process up.
Option B: PN is unable to leave port and Pearl Harboured.
Option A obviously, moving on.

Question 3: Now, does China intervene??
Option A: China makes small incursions into Ladakh and near Assam. Does aerial harassment of IAF assets flying over India.
Option B: China use cruise missiles to strike IAF bases.
Option C: China sends stuff to Pakistan.

At this point Option A is likely. However, despite this I expect India to be able to take large parts of our territory. This is because of:
1. Their numerical superiority (tanks)
2. Their ground attack air element superiority (Apaches, sensor-fuzed weapons) taking out our armour
3. Natural defense provided by mountains, China isn't bringing down tanks through the north.

Question 4: Does Pakistan use TNWs?
Option A: Yes- India responds with nukes - game over - not worth discussing
Option B: No. India will make it quite deep into Pakistan.

Question 5: Will IA overstretch its supply lines?
Option A: No. Pakistan surrenders. Plot twist: this is Ghazwa-e-Hind prophecy being fulfilled lol.
Option B: Yes. Maybe I am saying this because I am a biased Pakistani but I expect the IA to overstretch their supply lines. I say this because the Indian military often makes political decisions as opposed to strictly military decisions. But this is just an opinion.

Selecting Option B: PA will employ hit-and-run harassment tactics on IA. IA will be forced to retreat or suffer heavy casualties. War ends with Pakistan military as super duper heros but economy and military in ruins obviously. Massive hunger, poverty, and death. India's economy has more to lose though and will lose a lot. Their military will be obliterated too. They might go into a super fascist phase like Germany after WW1.
 

HRK

PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Sep 24, 2010
12,181
95
30,926
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Basically, someone had 3 broad ideas:

- Phase1: Pakistan vs India. Pakistan will be nearly defeated and will be marred by insurgencies while at it (very 2009ish)

- Phase2: China will intervene and turn the tide

- Phase3: US jumps in and wins the day

The rest is a lot of wishful thinking to back these 3 broad points to fill the details of an already forgone conclusion someone has in their mind for the “simulation”.
This simulation is similar [modernise version] to a report Named: Under Secretary of Defense (USD-Policy) 1999 Summer Study Final Report ASIA 2025 (click here: Read New South Asia Order starting from Page number-75)
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom