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Mamata hopes for stronger ties with Bangladesh

Jobless Jack

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A little border tension with China will cause Delhi to loosen its grip on Dhaka and BAL. This will also weaken BAL itself or BAL's very top leadership.

This is how changes may come to BD politics. But, which of the parties will substitute BAL no one really knows unless the time comes.

However, changes at the top may come from within BAL also and it will get more popular than now.
Lets see. If what you say is true. Then BAL's days are numbered because without Indian support they are nothing..

Even if BAL changes their top leadership ( highly unlikely) they wont survive politically. Change is actually a double whammy suicide for them as Change will not raise their popularity in the country ( no will will forget the misdeed of the last 12 years easily), but they will lose their main sponsor ( India). Highly stupid and unlikely move. What BAL should have done is distance itself from India from 2019 onwards. But now it is just a matter of time. But unfortunately they are going.



Either way coming months will be very revealing towards the Indian designs for BD.
 
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Bilal9

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Bhais I think Indians right now have much bigger fish to fry rather than worry about Teesta Barrage (covid).

They lost the election in WB, so Mamata still has some breathing time. Remains to be seen where things end up.

There would have been no guarantee of BJP "fixing" Teesta issue if they came to power in WB, these are politician bakwaas.

Maybe Hasina is waiting for the right time to pull the trigger, and the time is not "ripe" yet.

Teesta issue is important for Bangladesh and is front and center, so something will get done, otherwise she would not have broached this at Xi Jin Ping level and with him directly.

Statecraft and Chanakya Neeti needs to be addressed properly. We need to wait and see what happens.
 

bluesky

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Either way coming months will be very revealing towards the Indian designs for BD.
Let us see what India does if BD does not join QUAD as an associate member. The more Indian pressure the more BAL gains popularity. BAL understands joining QUAD means giving IA or other troops the needed corridors through BD in times of emergencies.

American pressure will be too high on BD to join QUAD. Could BD surmount it? India is a strong power that has borders with China. However, the American mission to surround China with IA troops fails at least in this region if BD does not support QUAD.

This military giant America is a menace to world peace.
 

Jobless Jack

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Let us see what India does if BD does not join QUAD as an associate member. The more Indian pressure the more BAL gains popularity. BAL understands joining QUAD means giving IA or other troops the needed corridors through BD in times of emergencies.

American pressure will be too high on BD to join QUAD. Could BD surmount it? India is a strong power that has borders with China. However, the American mission to surround China with IA troops fails at least in this region if BD does not support QUAD.

This military giant America is a menace to world peace.
USA is involved now. So Indian is / will putting more covert pressure. Pressure will increase. But the thing is that BAL gains popularity if India is open about the pressure. I doubt they India will come out in the open and say " you must join quad". That will be stupid move by India. India never creates pressure on BD openly. Never since 1971.

BAL is in deep waters and in a massive dilemma. I am glad that SHW is trying to solve the Teesta issue with India. But the thing is that India will probably use this as bait so BD joins quad. As India holds all the cards over awami league . Awami league will sign the dotted line to join Quad sooner rather than later and Teesta will be solved as a result for the Awami league to save face. The recent statement by FM Momen about maintaining neutrality was nothing but eye wash to buy time.

What happens afterwards is anyone's guess.
 
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Bilal9

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Let us see what India does if BD does not join QUAD as an associate member. The more Indian pressure the more BAL gains popularity. BAL understands joining QUAD means giving IA or other troops the needed corridors through BD in times of emergencies.

American pressure will be too high on BD to join QUAD. Could BD surmount it? India is a strong power that has borders with China. However, the American mission to surround China with IA troops fails at least in this region if BD does not support QUAD.

This military giant America is a menace to world peace.
US activity is not concerned with China-India conflicts. They could care less about what happens to India, unlike what Bhakts tell everyone. Even if Arunachal went to the Chinese occupation, I see (relatively) little happening. Write that down. The US gains little by putting boots on the ground.

But the Chinese are careful, they will not risk taking Arunachal as the gains are pointless compared to the risks.

The standoff and conflict closer to Kashmir (Galwan) have different (and greater) strategic implications. Think why Indian leaders are shaking in their boots.



The main area of conflict and point of contention for US are Taiwan, Spratly Islands (the airbase there) and South China Sea in general. This is China's backyard and they feel US interference in this area is unwarranted. Can't have two lions as pride leaders.
 

bluesky

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US activity is not concerned with China-India conflicts. They could care less about what happens to India, unlike what Bhakts tell everyone. Even if Arunachal went to the Chinese occupation, I see (relatively) little happening. Write that down. The US gains little by putting boots on the ground.

But the Chinese are careful, they will not risk taking Arunachal as the gains are pointless compared to the risks.

The standoff and conflict closer to Kashmir (Galwan) have different (and greater) strategic implications. Think why Indian leaders are shaking in their boots.



The main area of conflict and point of contention for US are Taiwan, Spratly Islands (the airbase there) and South China Sea in general. This is China's backyard and they feel US interference in this area is unwarranted. Can't have two lions as pride leaders.
Yes, the possible flashpoints are in the South China Sea although it will not stop there since India is part of QUAD. However, for now, it is still more of a kind of psychological war. So, comes India in QUAD which has long-time issues with China on Ladakh and Arunachal. The USA wants to encircle China from different sides to keep China off-guard, and waste its resources on building up its military.

I think the quarrelsome USA wants not a real war but a new Cold War situation to make China look villainous and lose many of its export markets all over the world. This is why it has made issues with the treatment of Turkic people in Xinjiang. It is to buy out the Muslim sentiments against China.

America did not respond to the Chinese proposals to send observer teams to get firsthand knowledge of its treatment of the Muslims Xinjiang. The US propaganda machines are busy sending a wrong Chinese image to the Muslim world.

So, the situation now is more of a propaganda-based psychological type of Cold War. However, it is dangerous for the world.
 
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Bilal9

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Yes, the possible flashpoints are in the South China Sea although it will not stop there since India is part of QUAD. However, for now, it is still more of a kind of psychological war. So, comes India in QUAD which has long-time issues with China on Ladakh and Arunachal. The USA wants to encircle China from different sides to make China off-guard, and waste its resources on building up its military.

I think the quarrelsome USA wants not a real war but a new Cold War situation to make China look villainous and lose many of its export markets all over the world. This is why it has made issues with the treatment of Turkic people in Xinjiang. It is to buy out the Muslim sentiments against China.

America did not respond to the Chinese proposals to send observer teams to get firsthand knowledge of its treatment of the Muslims Xinjiang. The US propaganda machines are busy sending a wrong Chinese image to the Muslim world.

So, the situation now is more of a propaganda-based psychological type of Cold War. However, it is dangerous for the world.
Well said bhai. I will respond in detail when I have a few minutes.
 

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