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LDC graduation may cost Bangladesh $7.0b worth of exports a year

bluesky

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Guys, to BD politicians and high bureaucrats, western countries are just a bunch of milk cows. Things may change when BD is expelled from the exclusive LDC Club. BD will fall into the middle income trap without an LDC leverage with the West.

BD planners may then come out with proposals to develop its own technologies or adopt the imported ones and build its own factories and machines with the participation of its own citizens.

BD remains now in a pre-industrial LDC era, and almost all the industrial or consumer goods are imported. However, our brats think BD is fast developing. But, it is no development without massive industrialization as it is in Japan.
 
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Protest_again

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Guys, to BD politicians and high bureaucrats, western countries are just a bunch of milk cows. Things may change when BD is expelled from the exclusive LDC Club. BD will fall into the middle income trap without an LDC leverage with the West.

BD planners may then come out with proposals to develop its own technologies or adopt the imported ones and build its own factories and machines with the participation of its own citizens.

BD remains now in a pre-industrial LDC era, and almost all the industrial or consumer goods are imported. However, our brats think BD is fast developing. But, no industries, no development.
Time is fast running out. 2024 is only 3 years away. Just hoping textile sector can some how continue to grow as before is non sensical. Given that Bangladesh per capita is already above India, labour is not going to be cheaper either going forward. Tough decisions required right now.
 

bluesky

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I mean Japan and Korea had their miracles , we just want our miracle.

Extreme Corruption hinders our national development :confused:
Korea is a newly developed country or we can say an already developed country in the 21st century. But, Japan has been developing since before 1860s and it has its industrial footprints in countries like Korea, Chinese Manchuria and Taiwan since early 1900s. Please read what Internet sources say:

"Korea lacked modern industry when it was annexed by Japan. How did the Korean economy change under Japanese rule? Changes in Koreaʼs industrial structure clearly indicate economic transformation. According to recent estimates, agriculture, forestry, and shery (as calculated by the amount of value added) accounted for approximately 70% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 1912 (Table 1)".
"This percentage declined decade by decade to about 40% in 1939. In less than 30 years, then, traditional primary industry (mostly agriculture) shrank to less than half the total economy in terms of value of products. Conversely, the proportion of mining and manufacturing industries combined in the total economy grew signicantly, from about 5% to about 20% during the same period".


Japan has been in a league different from other Asian nations and is at par with Europe. Note that without a very strong industrial might it could not have fought two long world wars last century.
 

Homo Sapiens

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BD remains a pre-1IR country. Stitching clothes is a pre-industrial economic activity. Since mechanized industrialization is absent, the country imports all its requirement of consumer goods.
Our industrial sector's contribution to GDP is 33%. This is quite a good number for any rapidly developing country. Garments sector's contribution to GDP is 11%. This means, two-third of our industrial production value comes from non-garments industrial goods. If we had no mechanized industrial base and had to import all the consumer goods, then our annual import bill would have crossed 100 billion dollar by now. Most of our consumer goods comes from domestic sources. But the problem is we still could not able to export our locally produced consumer goods in a big quantities in international market due to unfavorable industrial policy which favor only apparel sector. This is the problem.

Actually, Bangladesh mostly import raw materials and turn them into industrial goods. We import cotton and make cloths, we import scrapped ship and make steel, we import limestone and produce cement. We are making all kind of household electrical equipment, plastic, glass and rubber goods, pharmaceuticals, leather goods, smartphones, ship building, paper, food and beverage, small vehicles like motorcycle, bicycle, trishaws etc. We assemble our Buses also. Only big component missing in our industrial sector is Automobile production(car, truck,lorry, rail coach and engine etc). Our industrial sector mostly cater our domestic market, we still could not turn them into multi-billion Dollar export earner. This need to change with proper policy support from the govt.
 
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idune

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Our industrial sector's contribution to GDP is 33%. This is quite a good number for any rapidly developing country. Garments sector's contribution to GDP is 11%. This means, two-third of our industrial production value comes from non-garments industrial goods. If we had no mechanized industrial base and had to import all the consumer goods, then our annual import bill would have crossed 100 billion dollar by now. Most of our consumer goods comes from domestic sources. But the problem is we still could not able to export our locally produced consumer goods in a big quantities in international market due to unfavorable industrial policy which favor only apparel sector. This is the problem.

Actually, Bangladesh mostly import raw materials and turn them into industrial goods. We import cotton and make cloths, we import scrapped ship and make steel, we import limestone and produce cement. We are making all kind of household electrical equipment, plastic, glass and rubber goods, pharmaceuticals, leather goods, smartphones, ship building, paper, food and beverage, small vehicles like motorcycle, bicycle, trishaws etc. We assemble our Buses also. Only big component missing in our industrial sector is Automobile production(car, truck,lorry, rail coach and engine etc). Our industrial sector mostly cater our domestic market, we still could not turn them into multi-billion Dollar export earner. This need to change with proper policy support from the govt.
Industries producing noodles, biscuit, flour, rice are not much of an industry that fetching export earnings. Even doing so many ingredients need to be imported. Your value addition is dismal to say the least. WHY?
No mentionable or no creative or no significant product and services came out of Bangladeshi mind (in Bangladesh) that is fetching foreign currency. Perhaps, Bangladeshi mind busy with "chetona" and "hindi entertainment" and "facebook" mix a bit too much.

Transport industry had not changed much - Progoti industry assembling Pajero, bus, trucks etc. since 80s and now there are few more industries added but bulk of Bangladesh bus, trucks and transport vehicles are imported. Most and significant bike parts are imported. No significant export story from transport.

Rail, don't even go there. You do not even have proper workshop that meet needs of this era. You can not even make simple rail coach.

If Bangladeshis has so creative mind, Jute could have been a bright success story. But look where you at? Nowhere, still making sacks.

Regime minister chest thump doing 4th industrial revolutions. Does him or policymakers even know what that means? Definitely not. I had opportunity to talk to quite a few ministry secretary level officials and when I asked very simple question of what data they have, answer was simple "blank".

With all the extortion, bribe and protection money you have to pay to govt officials, law enforcement and local awami thugs, this very much defeat the purpose of investing in Bangladesh. That is just experience of local business. There are many survey and international reports already why there is not much investment in Bangladesh.

Heck, Bangladesh even import from india and elsewhere to fill mid and top level positions of existing companies. Send as much as $6 billion USD per year to foreign countries. Companies do not find qualified and honest people to run their business. I had first hand experience on that. Yet, all the "Oxford of the East", BUET and what not could not produce quality (except few and far between exceptions) to compete.

There is not enough decent medical facilities within reach of general population. Even whatever facilities exists, general attitude of doctors and professionals are outright hostile and preditory. No wonder Bangladeshis including top policymakers, spend over $2 billion in India and elsewhere seeking treatment.

In "Bangladesh" there is lots of big talk, hype and media statement of big projects, change and future etc. Most of it was and is to create big project --> allocate big fund --> steal big money. Despite all rosy picture they paint, politicians, businessman, govt officials, even 4th grade clerks had been and are seeking to get out with their loot, while gullible class consumes controlled media hypes.

You mentioned "This need to change with proper policy support from the govt." . That is good that byond hypes you realize change is needed. Question is, if policy and support had not change for last 30 years or last 15 years, how do you expect that will change in "future"? If it is "just" hope I would not say much.

If it feels what a "let down", well, this is meant to provoke thinking beyond Bangladeshi style hyperbole and see where changes are needed - starting with cultivating mind with good and proper education in Bangladesh. May be and only may be you could see REAL change and hope in distant future.
 
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bluesky

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Our industrial sector's contribution to GDP is 33%. This is quite a good number for any rapidly developing country. Garments sector's contribution to GDP is 11%. This means, two-third of our industrial production value comes from non-garments industrial goods. If we had no mechanized industrial base and had to import all the consumer goods, then our annual import bill would have crossed 100 billion dollar by now. Most of our consumer goods comes from domestic sources. But the problem is we still could not able to export our locally produced consumer goods in a big quantities in international market due to unfavorable industrial policy which favor only apparel sector. This is the problem.

Actually, Bangladesh mostly import raw materials and turn them into industrial goods. We import cotton and make cloths, we import scrapped ship and make steel, we import limestone and produce cement. We are making all kind of household electrical equipment, plastic, glass and rubber goods, pharmaceuticals, leather goods, smartphones, ship building, paper, food and beverage, small vehicles like motorcycle, bicycle, trishaws etc. We assemble our Buses also. Only big component missing in our industrial sector is Automobile production(car, truck,lorry, rail coach and engine etc). Our industrial sector mostly cater our domestic market, we still could not turn them into multi-billion Dollar export earner. This need to change with proper policy support from the govt.
With about 39% contribution of industries in the GDP of South Korea this country is regarded as highly developed country. How about Bangladesh with 33% industrial contribution? Please, it is better not to refer to BBS data that have little practical value except to make hollow bragging.

Average standard of living shows the reality. A 100 years of continuous industrialization is necessary to claim such a fantasy. Visit Japan, Germany or Korea to get a first hand knowledge about industrialization. You can compare it easily by seeing the living standard of people in those countries. I live in Japan and I have been to the two other countries to know how with hard labor for more than a century and with less bragging, what they have done to their countries and what life we live in an LDC.

Virtually, millions of manufacturing plants and factories need to be built to say 33% of industries contribute to the GDP. Very fictitious. If you are right, then BD should not keep on pleading for other countries' investments.

And one factory here and two more factories there is no recipe for industrialization.
 
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Homo Sapiens

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With about 39% contribution of industries in the GDP of South Korea this country is regarded as highly developed country. How about Bangladesh with 33% industrial contribution? Please, it is better not to refer to BBS data that have little practical value except to make hollow bragging.

Average standard of living shows the reality. A 100 years of continuous industrialization is necessary to claim such a fantasy. Visit Japan, Germany or Korea to get a first hand knowledge about industrialization. You can compare it easily by seeing the living standard of people in those countries. I live in Japan and I have been to the two other countries to know how with hard labor for more than a century and with less bragging, what they have done to their countries and what life we live in an LDC.

Virtually, millions of manufacturing plants and factories need to be built to say 33% of industries contribute to the GDP. Very fictitious. If you are right, then BD should not keep on pleading for other countries' investments.

And one factory here and two more factories there is no recipe for industrialization.
You are missing the main point. You should not corelate industrial contribution to GDP with country's overall prosperity. Vietnam's industrial GDP % is even more than South Korea's 39%. But that does not mean Vietnam is a richer country than South Korea. Western industrialized European economy like France, Italy and USA's industrial contribution to GDP in a range of just 15%-20%. Because these economies are so mature that service sector is now generating much more GDP than industrial sector.

I did not get Bangladesh's 33% from BBS. You can check all the international institutes like IMF, World Bank, ADB, CIA factbook. It will show 31% to 34% figure for Bangladesh depending on year and methodology.

South Korea's 1.5 trillion Dollar GDP means 39% contribution from Industrial sector translate into 600 billion Dollar worth of Industrial goods, while Bangladesh with just 300 billion Dollar GDP generate 33% or just 100 billion Dollar worth of Industrial products including garments. So Bangladesh's 33% GDP from Industrial sector is not as extraordinary figure as you are assuming. This 33% figure only means this poor developing country is industrializing at good pace.

The fact that our industrial sector is keeping up with the rapid GDP growth only means it's industrial sector is expanding at a healthy rate. Otherwise you would have seen gradual decline of the contribution of Industry in our overall GDP. Which is not the case. Our Industrial contribution to GDP is gradually rising. In 1970s, it was around 10% of GDP now it is more than 33%.
 
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mb444

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BD need only sign a free trade agreement with EU, UK, Canada and Japan to more or less retain LDC benefits for its RMG. Vietnam free trade agreement with EU shows the way.

BD do not get any benefit in US....on average we pay over 15% duty. Again a free trade agreement is a must.

But graduation is really necessary. It will open up low cost financing for BD companies and will increase internal investment and FDI.

I do not care that much about FDI but i do care about internal investment. Currently BD companies can not access foreign funding easily and even if it could it would cost them several percentage points more. This restricts growth.

Foreign companies doing business with BD companies would take out additional insurance to offset additional risk associated with being an LDC. Again this is a barrier to trade.

There is a clear pathway to offset any disbenefit of graduation.... what we do not see is the opportunity cost of not graduating..... how many 10s of billion is that..... garbage article....
With about 39% contribution of industries in the GDP of South Korea this country is regarded as highly developed country. How about Bangladesh with 33% industrial contribution? Please, it is better not to refer to BBS data that have little practical value except to make hollow bragging.

Average standard of living shows the reality. A 100 years of continuous industrialization is necessary to claim such a fantasy. Visit Japan, Germany or Korea to get a first hand knowledge about industrialization. You can compare it easily by seeing the living standard of people in those countries. I live in Japan and I have been to the two other countries to know how with hard labor for more than a century and with less bragging, what they have done to their countries and what life we live in an LDC.

Virtually, millions of manufacturing plants and factories need to be built to say 33% of industries contribute to the GDP. Very fictitious. If you are right, then BD should not keep on pleading for other countries' investments.

And one factory here and two more factories there is no recipe for industrialization.
The three countries you mention korea, japan and germany has something in common....they were invaded and destroyed by US and then US undertook nationbuilding and allowed them access to western markets....

Whilst they worked hard let us not assume they did not have massive assistance to get to where they are. They had to trade sovereignty for economy. BD has not and neither will it.
 
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Nike

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South Korea is corrupt too, but they had working system to check and balance the power and Priviledge people (like powerfull Chaebol owner and political dinasty) must do the same like mass to obey the law and state authority.
 

SpaceMan18

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Industries producing noodles, biscuit, flour, rice are not much of an industry that fetching export earnings. Even doing so many ingredients need to be imported. Your value addition is dismal to say the least. WHY?
No mentionable or no creative or no significant product and services came out of Bangladeshi mind (in Bangladesh) that is fetching foreign currency. Perhaps, Bangladeshi mind busy with "chetona" and "hindi entertainment" and "facebook" mix a bit too much.

Transport industry had not changed much - Progoti industry assembling Pajero, bus, trucks etc. since 80s and now there are few more industries added but bulk of Bangladesh bus, trucks and transport vehicles are imported. Most and significant bike parts are imported. No significant export story from transport.

Rail, don't even go there. You do not even have proper workshop that meet needs of this era. You can not even make simple rail coach.

If Bangladeshis has so creative mind, Jute could have been a bright success story. But look where you at? Nowhere, still making sacks.

Regime minister chest thump doing 4th industrial revolutions. Does him or policymakers even know what that means? Definitely not. I had opportunity to talk to quite a few ministry secretary level officials and when I asked very simple question of what data they have, answer was simple "blank".

With all the extortion, bribe and protection money you have to pay to govt officials, law enforcement and local awami thugs, this very much defeat the purpose of investing in Bangladesh. That is just experience of local business. There are many survey and international reports already why there is not much investment in Bangladesh.

Heck, Bangladesh even import from india and elsewhere to fill mid and top level positions of existing companies. Send as much as $6 billion USD per year to foreign countries. Companies do not find qualified and honest people to run their business. I had first hand experience on that. Yet, all the "Oxford of the East", BUET and what not could not produce quality (except few and far between exceptions) to compete.

There is not enough decent medical facilities within reach of general population. Even whatever facilities exists, general attitude of doctors and professionals are outright hostile and preditory. No wonder Bangladeshis including top policymakers, spend over $2 billion in India and elsewhere seeking treatment.

In "Bangladesh" there is lots of big talk, hype and media statement of big projects, change and future etc. Most of it was and is to create big project --> allocate big fund --> steal big money. Despite all rosy picture they paint, politicians, businessman, govt officials, even 4th grade clerks had been and are seeking to get out with their loot, while gullible class consumes controlled media hypes.

You mentioned "This need to change with proper policy support from the govt." . That is good that byond hypes you realize change is needed. Question is, if policy and support had not change for last 30 years or last 15 years, how do you expect that will change in "future"? If it is "just" hope I would not say much.

If it feels what a "let down", well, this is meant to provoke thinking beyond Bangladeshi style hyperbole and see where changes are needed - starting with cultivating mind with good and proper education in Bangladesh. May be and only may be you could see REAL change and hope in distant future.
I have to agree with you there , it's extremely hard to change Bangaldesh cause first you have to change the backward or intellectually stagnant mindsets of Bangaldeshis and also have political stability along with free education and healthcare to make creative Bangaldeshis.

Yes most Bangaldeshis are big talk but they can't walk the walk , and yeah you sadly have to pay and waste money on thugs before you can invest.

Bangladesh can develop , but you can't make yourself feel better about developing when you know you ain't truly developing.

By the time Bangaldeshis get their acts together , there will be no need for them cause robots and AI will be much more efficient and cheaper than Bangaldeshi labors.

We desperately need to get a leader who's pro Bangladesh and nothing else , and hopefully for the better brainwash everyone to work for your own nation.
South Korea is corrupt too, but they had working system to check and balance the power and Priviledge people (like powerfull Chaebol owner and political dinasty) must do the same like mass to obey the law and state authority.
Ehh nah , Koreans actually care about Korea unlike Bangaldeshis

One works hard to improve their countries self image and grows , the other works hard but gets corrupt and leaves to the west for no reason.
You are missing the main point. You should not corelate industrial contribution to GDP with country's overall prosperity. Vietnam's industrial GDP % is even more than South Korea's 39%. But that does not mean Vietnam is a richer country than South Korea. Western industrialized European economy like France, Italy and USA's industrial contribution to GDP in a range of just 15%-20%. Because these economies are so mature that service sector is now generating much more GDP than industrial sector.

I did not get Bangladesh's 33% from BBS. You can check all the international institutes like IMF, World Bank, ADB, CIA factbook. It will show 31% to 34% figure for Bangladesh depending on year and methodology.

South Korea's 1.5 trillion Dollar GDP means 39% contribution from Industrial sector translate into 600 billion Dollar worth of Industrial goods, while Bangladesh with just 300 billion Dollar GDP generate 33% or just 100 billion Dollar worth of Industrial products including garments. So Bangladesh's 33% GDP from Industrial sector is not as extraordinary figure as you are assuming. This 33% figure only means this poor developing country is industrializing at good pace.

The fact that our industrial sector is keeping up with the rapid GDP growth only means it's industrial sector is expanding at a healthy rate. Otherwise you would have seen gradual decline of the contribution of Industry in our overall GDP. Which is not the case. Our Industrial contribution to GDP is gradually rising. In 1970s, it was around 10% of GDP now it is more than 33%.
America will become a post industrial country maybe in the near future , Bangaldesh still has to industrialize and then simultaneously make our service sector internationally great.
 
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