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Latest Detailed Election Survey: PTI leading big time

Guvera

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Awakening the Sleeping Giant
Posted on May 9, 2013

“I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

– Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto after Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, 1941



It takes a lot to get the educated middle class out on the streets. Historically plagued with the belief that their vote doesn’t count, political passion has been found in ample quantities during living room debates but seldom put to action. In fact, a recent survey conducted by ROZEE.PK of Internet enabled working professionals found that in 2008, only 35% bothered to vote, considerably lower than the 44% overall turnout.

Of the 272 national assembly seats, a chunky 30% lie in urbanized areas of the country. And it turns out that the level of Internet penetration is disproportionately high in these areas, around30% to be precise. Clearly, when you do the math, the educated Internet enabled middle class does matter and can potentially change destinies of aspiring candidates.

The ubiquity of the online medium coupled with the accessibility of powerful technology has made this group of individuals extremely efficient and cost-effective to target on a mass scale. The survey measured opinions of over 10,000 educated professionals online from across the country, sampling from ROZEE.PK’s 16 Million annual unique Pakistani visitors. Not surprisingly the majority of respondents hailed from large urban populations centers including Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, and Faisalabad. Their average age was 27 years old.

Here are some of the findings.

There will be a historically high turnout amongst the educated middle class.

According to the survey results, the sleeping educated middle class has emphatically decided to come out of their living rooms. Over 95% are registered to vote and 93% of them indicated that they do indeed plan on casting their vote on May 11. This is quite a change: only 35% of them participated in the 2008 elections.

People are optimistic that things will get better after elections.

Over 70% of respondents felt that things will improve after the elections. Only 6% thought that the situation will deteriorate. The remaining 24% were unsure. The vast majority thought that the elections will be held on time and 42% felt they would be fair. Only 12% thought the elections will not be held fairly.

PTI and PML-N are favorites by a long shot.

Whereas respondents who voted in 2008 favored PML-N with a 46% majority followed by PPP with 19%, the winds have clearly changed. The same respondents now plan on voting for PTI by a whopping 70% majority followed by PML-N at 19%. PPP has dropped to a mere 2%. When asked who they would like to see as the next Prime Minister of Pakistan, 71% of respondents selected Imran Khan, 16% selected Nawaz Sharif and 4% chose Shahbaz Sharif.

A June 2011 poll revealed that 61% of this same demographic favored Imran Khan as the country’s next leader but only 17% of them felt he had a realistic shot at winning. Comparatively, of the 71% who favor Imran Khan now, 63% feel he will actually win a majority of seats. This marks a dramatic rise in confidence amongst Imran Khan’s supporters.

Of all major parties, clearly PPP enjoys the largest support from rural voters as evidenced by the fact that it came into power in the 2008 elections despite a second place ranking at just 19% amongst educated urban voters. We expect PPP to fare considerably better for this reason on May 11 than its dismal 2% rating suggests.

Households will largely vote as blocks for the same candidates.

Respondents report that their median household size is five members and an overwhelming 75% of them claim that their entire household will be voting for the same candidate. It would be appear that living room conversations have resulted in consensus amongst family members.

The educated middle class will vote along party lines.

74% of respondents reveal that their decision on who to vote for on May 11 will primarily be influenced by the party of the candidate rather than the candidate’s credentials.

Frustration with high levels of corruption, terrorism, power shortages and joblessness has awoken the sleeping giant.

When asked what the top priority should be of the new government, 23% suggest that ending corruption is at the front of the queue. Eradicating terrorism, ending power cuts and increasing employment all tie for second place with 19%.

Long term strategically vital issues such as increasing the tax base and providing greater access to education took a back seat in the minds of respondents, collecting just 2% and 9% support respectively.

The most pressing concerns above are those immediate issues that have deteriorated respondents’ quality of life to unbearable levels. This has prompted aunprecedented 93% projected turnout amongst educated urban middle class voters on May 11, considerably overshadowing the mere 35% turnout from this same group in 2008.

The sleeping educated urban middle class giant has awoken, filled with hope and a terrible resolve. It’s about time.

(Survey conducted by leading pakistani website Rozee.pk)
Download detailed results from here: http://research.rozee.pk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/ROZEE.PK-Survey-Elections-Pakistan-2013.pdf
 

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