The market is already saturated with oil, thus one of the main factors effecting Iran oil sales would be to what extend Iran could regain market share, it is still part of OPEC and I doubt they be very accommodating, especially the Saudis. The other bottle-neck is just how much oil Iran could produce/pump. It's infrastructure is not all up to the job.Before Trump:
EIA estimates that Iran's oil net export revenues totaled $55 billion in 2017. projects. According to EIA estimates based on tanker-tracking data reported by ClipperData, Iran's crude oil and condensate exports averaged 2.5 million b/d in 2017, about 0.2 million b/d higher than the 2016 average (Figure 4)
With complete oil embargo
According to the data, Iran is exporting as much as 600,000 barrels daily, using ship-to-ship transfers with transponders turned off to avoid detection, skirting U.S. sanctions. The daily average number compares with an estimate of 227,000 bpd made in a U.S. Congressional report, NBC’s Raf Sanchez wrote on Twitter
Iran is exporting a lot more crude oil than U.S. figures suggest, data from TankerTrackers.com has revealedwww.google.com
The amount actually sold on black market and sold as Iraqi oil is impossible to know
That would go against the terms of the JCPOA. If Biden tries to restrict the deal like that, then Iran has the right to take action.Thus the only thing Biden will give Iran is waivers to export oil to friendly countries to Iran. Thus Iran is looking at possible less than 2M barrels extra of oil export.
You're focusing too much on the oil. Iran will be free to sell its gas and also it's non crude petrochemical products. And yes, when you add all that up, the revenues Iran will gain is not comparable to the situation right now.Is this your idea of tangible economic benefits?
That is a much better alternative than remaining under sanctions, which is your plan. Truly outstanding strategy.Iran will once again give away another round of leverage (uranium deposits, scuttle Fordow, and stop construction of underground centrifuge site) just to be able to sell some more oil for 4 years.
Yes, instead lets take the words of users on an internet forum.I mean what else can someone expect from someone so naive that takes the Biden’s words as gospel.
Nobody is going to force Iran to accept anything beyond JCPOA. Iran has made this clear. You're just making unsubstantiated predictions.The return “deal” is going to force a second more punishing JCPOA 2.0 then force a third even more punishing JCPOA 3.0 deal in a few years that will totally gut Iran.
Iran will merely return to its obligation under JCPOA. Avoid inventing your own theories and trying to pass them off as facts.Meanwhile you will have given up leverage to return to JCPOA. Given up even more leverage to to get to JCPOA 2.0
Pick up a history book or two. Saddam's Iraq was crushed by sanctions and heavily impacted by multiple wars. Comparing that situation to Iran via JCPOA is fallacious beyond recognition.This is how US destroyed Saddam from 1990 to 2003.