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JF-17 Thunder Multirole Fighter [Thread 7]

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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Hi,

If china bailed on pakistan---then china is done and dusted---. Because the rest of the world would say---if you could not take a stand for pakistan---why would you take a stand for us.


Hi,

I did not say anything about chinese diplomacy---. That is all they have is---diplomacy---.

But there is a time---you have to take charge of your allies and sometimes twist their arms a little bit and let them know who the Boss is & where their loyalties need to lie---.

Chinese are extremely weak in that field---.

@Bilal Khan (Quwa) post defines what I stated---.
Precisely. This is so much bigger than Pakistan. As you said, the whole world is watching. If China can't keep its grasp on Pakistan, then it exposes itself as a weak superpower. It shows the world that China can't translate its economic power into foreign relations clout. This is a strategic blunder.

That said, the opposite holds true as well. If, by some miraculous stroke of fate, Pakistan produced a leadership that can't be controlled by anyone, then I think China will respond very positively to it. That leadership would have a clear agenda: (1) take Kashmir, (2) put a leash on Afghanistan and (3) comes out to every fight. It would do the aggressive work, and have no shame about it.

Basically the foreign relations 'enforcer' China needs.
 

Mrc

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Why would china be angry??

The way Russian army has been exposed in ukerine ...rusty equipment...too much hype...air force no where to be seen ....

Pakistani establishment was right in their assessment
 

PakFactor

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Why would china be angry??

The way Russian army has been exposed in ukerine ...rusty equipment...too much hype...air force no where to be seen ....

Pakistani establishment was right in their assessment

You do not get to sit at the same table when you deal in duplicity.

I will give you a very water-downed example. You marry into a family and eat from its table, then go out and engage with that family's rivals. Then you come back and expect to sit at the same table?

My grandfather always said a person like this should never be forgiven or be allowed to sit at the same table; if he repents, the most you can do is have them sit on the floor.

@MastanKhan @Bilal Khan (Quwa)
 

sparten

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Okay, what about cruise missiles? They've literally just tested the indigenous core of their mainline turbofan engine for every one of their cruise missiles, including the SOM, SOM-J, ATMACA, ATMACA KARA, and Gezgin. In fact, their Gezgin GLCM will probably cut way ahead in range compared to the Babur in its very first model (1,200 to 1,500 km).
Dude, seriously? You are comparing stuff, many of which aren't even in final trials yet or on the drawing board with our systems which have been in active service for a decade and a half and whose replacements are in development? The SOM, SOM-J et al are fine systems, but they are at best equivalent to early Ra'ad which has been in service since 2008 and the SOM only achived IOC in 2020 or so.
This isn't even a debate.
Agreed, they are something like a decade behind us in this particular field. Not everything, and even most areas, but here,
India is ahead of Pakistan, and Türkiye is ahead of Pakistan. If anything, the real debate now is seeing who'll cross into the "big leagues" first -- Türkiye or India.
India has the same issue as we do and one which Turkey doesn't share, which is their and our systems have to operate in a nuclear environment. The Turks don't (and NATO doesn't count since NATO nuclear role is assigned to the US, and the nuclear sharing is done through US Supplied aircraft).
Now I am sure you know this, but to reinterate. A system designed to operate in the nuclear role has to demonstrate reliability and robustness far greater than one which doesn't.

Reliability
A typical conventional missile system has a reliability of about 80-90%, under ideal circumstances. Thats simply not acceptable for a strategic system. For that you need closer to 99.9%. In a conventional war its more cost effective to compensate for expected failures by simply building more. Thats not an option for nuclear role, since every failure is a loss of a very expensive warhead at best and a nuke falling where you don't want at worst. And the 80-90% number is for complete missile loss, it does not include partial failures, such as a greater than expected miss, which again, is unacceptable for us since that means the hardened high value target you were trying to destroy survives and fights on. Therefore not only the system needs to have very high reliability as a whole but so do sub-systems. All this means much greater expense and effort.
Its for this reasons that for so long (until recently infact) we used imported engines for our CM's, not because we couldn't build them, but because we couldn't do it to the reliability levels our strategic forces needed. Its also why India takes approximately forever to induct systems.

Robustness
A nuclear system needs to be hardened against EMP, if your systems electronics get fried its no use, And hardening isn't as simple as putting a faraday cage over the electronics, that takes weight and uses space which leads to a tradeoff elsewhere. Plus when firing en salvo the thing needs to be protected against neutron fkux, its going to suck if you fire a salvo and the neutron flux of the first sets off the other warheads prematurely.
Due to some common ties (e.g., religion, the Turkic origins of the Ottomans and Mughals, and the help Muslims in India gave during WW1), they're inviting us to their team.
No, They do it sinces its in their interest.
We should humble ourselves, and join.
Agreed. I have been a proponent of this for years. What we should not do, is sell ourselves short. We have a lot of good stuff to offer them and we should do so.
 

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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Dude, seriously? You are comparing stuff, many of which aren't even in final trials yet or on the drawing board with our systems which have been in active service for a decade and a half and whose replacements are in development? The SOM, SOM-J et al are fine systems, but they are at best equivalent to early Ra'ad which has been in service since 2008 and the SOM only achived IOC in 2020 or so.
The point you're missing is that between the drawing board and the operational realm, Turkey actually has something to talk about. We don't. That's the gap @JamD, myself, and others are trying to address.

Our programs either wither away on the drawing board (e.g., AZM) or, ultimately, end up losing priority to off-the-shelf solutions (e.g., al-Khalid 2 and VT-4). This is happening because we lack industrial and R&D capabilities in the middle. Turkey has this "middle" aspect, which is why you can be confident in their ability to drive a project home more so than Pakistan.

Yes, I'll concede that operating in a nuclear environment has far more stringent requirements. So, yes, our strategically-oriented ballistic missiles and cruise missiles have to meet those standards. Fair. However, we've been seeing fails across the chain in conventional areas (like tanks, armoured vehicles, drones, etc) which can't be explained away due to the nuclear environment. In each of those situations, the outcome is literally the same: The project gets nixed, or gets superseded by an import.

BTW, we were also manufacturing and operationalizing drones before Turkey. Today, we're importing drones from Turkey.
 
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Mrc

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You do not get to sit at the same table when you deal in duplicity.

I will give you a very water-downed example. You marry into a family and eat from its table, then go out and engage with that family's rivals. Then you come back and expect to sit at the same table?

My grandfather always said a person like this should never be forgiven or be allowed to sit at the same table; if he repents, the most you can do is have them sit on the floor.

@MastanKhan @Bilal Khan (Quwa)


I respect your grandfathers point of view...but that's not how world works
 

PakFactor

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I respect your grandfathers point of view...but that's not how world works

No, it's precisely how the world works. Your relationship with the U.S. is just like that, and the reception Bajwa received on his visit to China was on full display, as discussed in another thread last month. Remember, China kept Pakistan only due to India; the U.S. kept Pakistan around due to the Cold War. You've seen how Pakistan was dropped off the table to sit on the floor in the 1990s.

Now, I can be even harsh on Pakistan and say it's a family dog that's fed off the master's table. But let's keep the former to give a little respect to his nation.
 

Mrc

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No, it's precisely how the world works. Your relationship with the U.S. is just like that, and the reception Bajwa received on his visit to China was on full display, as discussed in another thread last month. Remember, China kept Pakistan only due to India; the U.S. kept Pakistan around due to the Cold War. You've seen how Pakistan was dropped off the table to sit on the floor in the 1990s.

Now, I can be even harsh on Pakistan and say it's a family dog that's fed off the master's table. But let's keep the former to give a little respect to his nation.

India is still there .

Nothing has changed . Pakistani establishment did make right decision for not siding with loosing side...even Chinese haven't sided openly with Russia.

The drones Iranians provided...
Alot better game changing drone could have been provided by china.

I am afraid I won't agree with your assessment or that of your grand father's on this matter . But let's just get back to topic
 

PakFactor

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India is still there .

Nothing has changed . Pakistani establishment did make right decision for not siding with loosing side...even Chinese haven't sided openly with Russia.

The drones Iranians provided...
Alot better game changing drone could have been provided by china.

I am afraid I won't agree with your assessment or that of your grand father's on this matter . But let's just get back to topic

I think your approach is wrong as you view this just through the lens of Pak-Russia relations, but China is looking at it from a broad point of view. That's the difference between Pakistan's and China's thinking.

1) India is there, and the US, your traditional ally, is standing behind it.
2) It's not about providing weapons, but your country didn't stand for itself and its self-interests; that's what I'm talking about in my example.

The Chinese thinking will go along the lines if the going gets tough. Will Pakistan bend and break? The answer is right in front of you, and there are other factors if you read through or have inside [mostly family in the armed forces] who'll also tell you about the issues. You will be dealing with China in an arm's length transaction.

Your pivoting doesn't make you reliable.


I think @Bilal Khan (Quwa), the two posts below, answered it nicely as well.


 
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Mrc

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I think your approach is wrong as you view this just through the lens of Pak-Russia relations, but China is looking at it from a broad point of view. That's the difference between Pakistan's and China's thinking.

1) India is there, and the US, your traditional ally, is standing behind it.
2) It's not about providing weapons, but your country didn't stand for itself and its self-interests; that's what I'm talking about in my example.

The Chinese thinking will go along the lines if the going gets tough. Will Pakistan bend and break? The answer is right in front of you, and there are other factors if you read through or have inside [mostly family in the armed forces] who'll also tell you about the issues. You will be dealing with China in an arm's length transaction.


I think @Bilal Khan (Quwa), the two posts below, answered it nicely as well.





That's what I am saying.

Our self interest was not to side with losing party...nor was china's

And neither Chinese have sent drones or any weapons to Russia , forcing them to buy from Iran...nor did we openly side or support them ..


So where is the so called discord??

So yes again that's not how international relations work...
Like it or not ....


There are some other internal issues where even I am not happy with bajwas conduct .but that has nothing to do with our international relations nor every thing said on political plateforms is total truth regardless of who is saying it
 

PakFactor

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That's what I am saying.

Our self interest was not to side with losing party...nor was china's

And neither Chinese have sent drones or any weapons to Russia , forcing them to buy from Iran...nor did we openly side or support them ..


So where is the so called discord??

I guess I have to make this even simple.

Put China in Russia's shoes, and Pakistan made a choice then as it does now. What do you think the Chinese would think? They are calculating your reliability as a partner at this time. Can you sit at the same table?

On the other hand, look at India and how it reacted to Russia; it served its interests first and maintained its relations with Russia -- while dealing with the US at arm's length out of its self-interest.

What China want's is a Pakistan that's as calculating as India, but it doesn't see it.
 

Mrc

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I guess I have to make this even simple.

Put China in Russia's shoes, and Pakistan made a choice then as it does now. What do you think the Chinese would think? They are calculating your reliability as a partner at this time. Can you sit at the same table?


Sir we don't even buy a bullet from Russia. Even the Russian stuff we use is bought for us by third parties like Chinese .
We fought against them we have shot down each other aircraft. And Russia is largest supplier of arms to india

Our relationship with Russia is not the same nor the Geo political calculous is same
 

PakFactor

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Sir we don't even buy a bullet from Russia. Even the Russian stuff we use is bought for us by third parties like Chinese .
We fought against them we have shot down each other aircraft. And Russia is largest supplier of arms to india

Our relationship with Russia is not the same nor the Geo political calculous is same

Your still not getting it. [I edited my post before you replied and added two lines].

"Put China in Russia's shoes, and Pakistan made a choice then as it does now. What do you think the Chinese would think? They are calculating your reliability as a partner at this time. Can you sit at the same table?"

That line is the gist of Chinese thinking at the moment. I can't make it any simpler than that. You pivoting to American whim every decade doesn't make you reliable.
 

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