• Sunday, August 19, 2018

Japan's economy shrank for the first time in nine quarters

Discussion in 'China & Far East' started by beijingwalker, May 16, 2018.

  1. beijingwalker

    beijingwalker BANNED

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    Japan's economy shrank for the first time in nine quarters
    • Japan's economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in the January-March period.
    Published 15 Hours Ago Updated 14 Hours Ago

    Japan's economy contracted more than expected at the start of this year, breaking the longest run of growth seen for decades, in a blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's reflationary 'Abenomics' polices.

    Wednesday's data marked the end to eight straight quarters of economic expansion, which was the longest sequence of growth since a 12-quarter run between April-June 1986 and January-March 1989 during the asset-inflated bubble economy.

    The economy shrank by 0.6 percent on an annualized basis, a much more severe contraction than the median estimate for an annualized 0.2 percent.


    Fourth quarter growth was revised to an annualized 0.6 percent, down from the 1.6 percent estimated earlier.

    Economists say the contraction will be temporary, but there is a risk that trade friction with the United States will hurt export demand, meaning a strong recovery is not assured.

    "Globally, IT-related items have been in an adjustment phase, which weighed down Japan's exports and factory output," said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

    "The economy is unlikely to continue to contract further. The global economy is performing well and a yen is trading beyond 110 yen against the dollar, so once exports start to grow again, the economy will return to a moderate growth path."

    Capital expenditure fell 0.1 percent, down for the first time in six quarters, suggesting corporate investment is not as strong as many economists had forecast. The median estimate was for a 0.4 percent increase.

    Wednesday's figures may presage data due on Thursday that is forecast to show core machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital expenditure, fell in March for the first time in three months.

    Compared to the previous quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.2 percent, more than the median estimate for GDP to be flat, and following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in October-December, Cabinet Office data showed on Wednesday.

    Consumer spending fell marginally, registering a decline of less than one percentage point in the first quarter. The median estimate was for consumer spending to remain unchanged.

    External demand — or exports minus imports — added 0.1 percentage point to first-quarter GDP, as imports slowed more than exports.

    However, a breakdown of the data shows export growth is losing momentum, expanding 0.6 percent in the first quarter after growth of 2.2 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.

    Japan's government is preparing for its annual announcement of guidelines for economic and fiscal policy, but the government has been distracted by allegations of cronyism that have hurt Abe's approval ratings.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/jap...cted-for-the-first-time-in-nine-quarters.html
     
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  2. Dai Toruko

    Dai Toruko FULL MEMBER

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    The Japanese did the same thing in the 80s and early 90s (buy German companies or get a lot of influence to get their hands on patents and trade secrets). But you know what, it didn't hurt Germany much, and it didn't help Japan in the long run, look how their economy fizzled out despite stealing (or legally acquiring) all that IP.

    The Chinese are extremely similar to how the Japanese were when they "ruled the world", and the Chinese will fizzle out eventually just like Japan did.

    Because the much deeper problem is East Asian culture itself, which due to its rote learning school system fails to create "the next Steve Jobs" time and again. All they can do is buy / steal / take over Western IP and build existing stuff cheaper, but this also means they will never be at the forefront of innovation.
     
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  3. beijingwalker

    beijingwalker BANNED

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    Japan is an US puppet state, US can do whatever they want to Japan, Japan doesn't have a choice but to eat the humble pie every time when there is a conflict with US. China never cares whining Americans and Europeans. We just go ahead and do whatever suits our interest and destroy our competitors once at a time.
    The last thing we care is some predictions coming from some Turkish guy, save it to yourself and see how world is changing day by day.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
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  4. Dai Toruko

    Dai Toruko FULL MEMBER

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    But the thing that actual killed Japan was the end of the cold war. Japan was never respected as an equal. The west treated it as a cheap workbench to build their inventions. But as Japan got rich (late 80s, early 90s) this, the cheap workbench status dissipated because of rising production costs and dropping margins for their companies.
    But right then in the early 90s China was open enough to become the "workbench of the West", with way cheaper prices than Japan. From then on, it was game over for Japan - the bubble burst and the economy too the downward turn that still hasn't ended. Many fear that the same fate is befalling China.
     
  5. beijingwalker

    beijingwalker BANNED

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    Japan has to bend under US pressure everytime US puts on them, China is a different case, Japan is a small country with no resources and domestic market to sustain its growth, they totally are at mercy of foreign powers and markets, China accounts for one fifth of the humanity, vast land and resources, boasts the biggest middle class population in the world, China is every thing the opposite of Japan.
     
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  6. Daniel808

    Daniel808 FULL MEMBER

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    The thing that killed japanese economy is Plaza Accord imposed by americans in 80s.
    After decades and they trying to recover from that, the situation has changed. There is stiff competition with China, South Korea, and Taiwan Province. Also their population is declining and older (a big impact for a country that only have 120 million people)

    That's why until today, economy of japan still Stagnan and don't have any bright future even for next 5 to 10 years ahead.
     
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  7. terranMarine

    terranMarine BANNED

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    Which is why i said earlier, Japan's fate lies with China. :lol:
     
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  8. Viva_Viet

    Viva_Viet SENIOR MEMBER

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    Correct, the only thing that help your country remaining stable is to have large market that under your control. Why US is so strong ? Cos she control the huge market of the world.

    Why CN, Russia is still weak ?? Yeah, cos their markets are not good, Russia is under US-EU's sanction, CN depend too much on export that can be destroyed by TPP, Trump's tariff.

    VN now can produce also everything that CN, JP producing (machinery, shoes, clothe, car, phone, steel etc) and VN is far better in furniture, fishing, food products. CN-JP's future is just too dark and have to beg for healthy food from VN in every winter cos they can not grow anything under 1 meter snow :laugh:
     
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  9. HannibalBarca

    HannibalBarca SENIOR MEMBER

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    Japan main problem is it's inability to evolve with it's time... Locked by Heavy Bureaucracy and a one "Party" view since decades...
    A profound restructuring of the Workforce environment is needed to give a boost to the Economy...
    Otherwise it's either imposing another sacrifice on Japanese ppl or Start to open the Door for cheap labor...

    Their ability to think and Behave as "One" was their "Miracle" in the 70-90s... Nowadays it's a curse...
    Tbh... All of Japan society need to shift/Evolve... if she wants to stay alive/Relevant in the coming decades...

    One of the consequences of this "Suffocating situation" is the new "Military" politics of Japan... a Way to give a meaning to a falling society...
    An Endless similar circle... seen across History...again and again...

    Even Few African countries have a better "Startup" Environment/Ecosystem and "Youth" following than Japan... that's tell you a lot...
     
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  10. Kiss_of_the_Dragon

    Kiss_of_the_Dragon ELITE MEMBER

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    Compare to Anatolian which can do nothing other than doing cleaning job, you guys are just irrelevant in the modern world while Asians & Westerner are struggle to stay at high tech podium...LMAO
     
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  11. Mista

    Mista FULL MEMBER

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    If you analyze the long term macro figures, Japan's economic slump is mainly resulted from their demographic slump.

    Japan's productivity growth is doing not bad.
    [​IMG]


    But their economy is not performing.
    [​IMG]

    Why?
    [​IMG]

    https://www.ft.com/content/7ce47bd0-545f-11e8-b3ee-41e0209208ec

    With a fertility rate of 1.4 and a strict immigration policy, Japan's demography will continue to age and shrink. Their total GDP will likely continue to stagnate.

    What US puppet, plaza accord, asset bubble burst, bureaucratic etc. These reasons are just distractions if we take an objective and long term view (>30 years) on their economy. Could they not grow if they had a healthy fertility rate? Will they still be trapped in deflation?
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2018
  12. Kiss_of_the_Dragon

    Kiss_of_the_Dragon ELITE MEMBER

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    like to bullsh1t as usual :lol:, Japan and China are exporting the high polluted and non value add manufacturing job to Vietnam and as concession Vietnam get rip by China or Japan to build rail and subway :laugh:. VN can only produce if China allow, if we decide to cut Water to VN, your manufacturing plants, agriculture, cities and 1/3 of Vnmeses will suffer from dehydration:laugh:
     
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  13. Viva_Viet

    Viva_Viet SENIOR MEMBER

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    Oh yeah, so can JP-CN grow crop in 1 meter snow ?? Oh no, thats why CN kids starved to death in trash bin in winter few year ago. JP now only make money by selling car which will be replaced by VN Vinfast car (wt German tech) in near future, and it mean JP also dont know what else can help her make money but Hental, JAV :laugh:

    Abt rail and subway ?? Oh, we can buy better tech from German-France cos JP-CN tech are just poor copy from German tech.CN rail tech is just trash, no thing more :laugh:
     
  14. beijingwalker

    beijingwalker BANNED

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    Don't buy them like US did then, hope your opinion carries weight in the Vietnamese government.
     
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  15. rcrmj

    rcrmj SENIOR MEMBER

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    when the day where humans start taking monkeys advise seriously, then your "thoughts" will also be taken seriously, until then, please entertain us with your monkey logic :lol:
     
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