I can say that until Jokowi term finishes (2024), I believe our defense budget will not exceed current budget of around 9 billion USD. And as Covid 19 become an outbreak in Indonesia and also many part of the world, that figure is even getting slashed now.
I will try to explain why our defense budget will be stagnant for the next 4-5 years.
Current government make several new policies and program in its second term. They create new welfare government program like unemployment benefit and also program like new capital building, and also lower corporate tax. Those program will surely affect the budget heavily for the next 4-5 years.
Dont forget that for the last 5 years, Indonesia is under Jokowi administration who focuses more on infrastructure and village development, those things absorb many of our budget. We can say that he focus much on economy and doesnt put too much attention on our defense. I will try to explain why the policy is like that.
What I can say is that many Indonesia strategic inside the government look our major threat is more on economy rather than anything else, particularly in relation with trade with China. We posted first trade deficit in 2012 where China imported goods as the main reason of it. So it is understandable for our current government to spend more on infrastructure to make our economy become more competitive. Lowering corporate tax is also part of the strategy.
We try to compete with China in economic sector with the goal to make our trade with China getting more balance or even scores surplus. I dont think it is wise for Indonesia to spend much budget in defense to balance China in SCS while in other hand our economy lost its competitiveness with China and import many product from that country. Our defense spending will not be sustainable in the long run if our economy is out compete by them. So we try to fix the underlying problem on our economy first before spending more on defense.
We dont know what is the strategy of the new leader after Jokowi administration finishes its final term in November 2024, but as infrastructure will relatively be quite good at that period so I can expect that new administration have more ease to use state budget for other things like defense procurement.
I think Indonesia is right to not spend more on defence and no point even trying to compete too much with China.
So Indonesian defence budget as proportion of GDP will fall if it stays constant till 2024?
As regards BD my reply was to that countrywoman of yours who again slyly attacked BD with incorrect information that BD government is not investing in defence. As everyone is able to see now, BD defence spending grew 4x in the last decade - one of the highest proportionate increases in the world. It will keep doing so, as we see with Myanmar and with India, BD is sandwiched between two hostile and unstable countries and so needs a strong military to defend itself.
Yes we have MIG 21 and MIG 29 in hundreds..... this is our strategy to win wars with numbers just like Soviets.....
Imagine Bangladesh goes for costly shiny Typhoons or Super Hornets and we blow them up on the ground itself by swarming their skies with dirt cheap 100s of MIG 21 fish beds....
Not as easy as that dude.
Typhoons can carry up to 8 air-to-air missiles.
A squadron(16) of these in the air can take down 100 or more Mig-21/29s before they need to land to refuel and rearm.
Thankfully the IAF does not think like you.