ZeroWhat odds do you place on a government emerging with a strong mandate i.e., with a good majority not needing coalition building with horse trading, if elections were to be held?
Why would any sane investor bet on Pakistan knowing full well that the lumber 1 duffers sitting in GHQ can upend the apple cart at any moment.I don’t see Pakistan coming out of this anytime soon
Even if a clean political party comes in with smart people, this is easily a decade job. Cleaning up the mess, setting macro economic indicators right, bringing political stability, create a good investment climate, and only then you move towards a path of economic growth.
Politely put, Pakistanis have been selecting thieves during elections and OK with supra constitutional role of the establishment.
However, I have high hopes for Pakistan’s future. Now that the establishment role has been exposed and the politicians totally naked, we certainly hope Pakistan now is on the right trajectory.
I am not the one who discusses divine topics. I mean what happens to nations that elect thieves, Generals who sell blood (CSF funds, $ for drone strikes) of the civilians they swore to protect, judges who make wrong judgements for $ and the normal public only dream is to become part of the mafia. There is only one thing Allah sends to these kind of nations. Total wrath.
We need just make dar sit on a plan 🚀 and there we go.Why would any sane investor bet on Pakistan knowing full well that the lumber 1 duffers sitting in GHQ can upend the apple cart at any moment.
Without neutering the haramkhor coward of the Mir Jaffer colonial order, things will never progress in Pakistan.
More importantlyThe defense budget needs to be slashed by atleast 20-30%.
Aapne RCO karwaya, it went all wrong, now bear the consequences.
Go promote India somewhere else. The only country that elected a mass muderer in India. Modi Ji is responsible is responsible for 5 million death during Covid, gave thousands of square kilometers to China, got his *** kicked by Pakistan after Balakot. You guys don’t fools us all hot air and chest thumping. Dirty complex ridden rats.The irony is that the only people correct were Indians. We had been saying this for many years.
1. We criticised Elite capture/wadheras in Pakistan and suggested land reforms like India did in 50s and 60s. The Pakistanis did not like it, they considered it a part of their country.
2. We talked about Pak army and ISI being loyal only to Pak Army and ISI. THis forum rained abuses on anyone who even suggested that Pak Army was corrupt or compromised.
3. We talked about debt trap, especially CPEC. As years are progressing it is becoming clear CPEC (not to be confused with BRI) has destroyed Pakistan's economy and it will take decades to undo the damage.
4. We said Taliban coming to power in Afganistan would be a major blow to Pak's security.
5. We said all OIC members will make massive investments in Kashmir, as part of India govt. post-370 rejuvenation plan.
Every well-educated person on this forum is speaking the same words that Indians were speaking for many years.
No mention of why it is a "Bad idea to admit this in public". 10,000 containers sitting on the dock and shuttered factories need an explanation?
The phrase "Islamabad baffled by IMF moving goalposts" suggests that the Pakistani government is confused or puzzled by the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) changing demands or expectations.
Islamabad baffled by IMF moving goalpostsPakistan reaches out to US to secure desperately-needed deal
Shahbaz RanaMarch 01, 2023
Pakistan on Tuesday once again sought the US help to conclude a desperately-needed deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
It is “rare” that despite implementing tough decisions with high political cost, the coalition government has to deal with a situation where the global lender keeps changing the goalposts constantly.
The request for the US help was made by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar in a virtual meeting with US Deputy Secretary of Treasury Wally Adeyemo, according to the government sources.
The US made the contact to discuss a different matter, the sources said and added Dar, however, brought the issue of the IMF attitude towards Pakistan with the official.
The finance ministry sources said the staff level agreement with the IMF was unlikely this week, as the two sides still have difference of opinion on major issues like the exchange rate, interest rate, external financing gap and Rs3.82 per unit debt servicing surcharge on electricity. In spite of all this, they hope to sort out the issues and clinch a deal next week.
The government has faced this unusual situation for the first time in the past 25 years where during almost every interaction, the IMF had come up with a different demand, they added.
The 9th review talks for the release of $1.1 billion tranche began a month ago and the delay is causing a heavy damage to the country, with a latest blow by Moody's that further lowered the credit rating to CCC. Regional countries, with the exception of China, too, are largely siding with the IMF, further complicating the situation.
Road barriers to IMF agreement
The sources said that the IMF has projected the external financing gap at $7 billion compared to $5 billion being worked out by the Ministry of Finance. In order to end the difference, the Pakistani authorities have requested the IMF to lower the deficit projection by $1 billion.
“Another $1 billion can be lowered by reducing the foreign exchange reserves building requirements,” the sources said.
“The IMF has projected the annual current account deficit at $8.2 billion for the current fiscal year despite it having only $3.7 billion during the first seven months,” said the sources. “In order to resolve the issue, it can reduce the projection by $1 billion,” they added.
The government hoped that it could still fetch $7 billion by June provided the IMF showed some flexibility in its position. “We are hopeful of increase in the gross official foreign exchange reserves to over $10 billion by June,” according to the government officials engaged in talks with the IMF.
However, the IMF has not accepted Pakistan’s stance on the external financing gap yet. Despite this, Pakistan is still hoped that it will be able to get $2 billion from Saudi Arabia and $1 billion from the United Arab Emirates in additional loans to bridge the gap. Also, it is eying $2 billion from the sale of assets to these nations, although the Gulf countries have not been fully cooperating.
The Pakistani authorities were appreciative of the Chinese help that has already disbursed $700 million. Another $1.3 billion Chinese loan will come in three tranches, providing a cushion at a time when the IMF was “unreasonable” in its demands, said the sources.
The sources said that the government had left the exchange rate at the mercy of market forces and as a result, the rupee-dollar value significantly changed against the last month's level of Rs230 to a dollar.
However, the IMF was still expressing apprehensions that the government was manipulating the price. “The IMF sees the exchange rate close to the grey market rate,” the sources said and added “This is not true.”
“We have explained our position but the IMF somehow does not understand it,” said the sources.
Both sides also have different views on the yardstick with which to measure the real interest rate – the gap between inflation and the central bank-determined interest rate.
The IMF did not accept the government’s position to calculate the real positive interest rate by gauging it against core inflation – being calculated after excluding energy and food inflation. It asked Pakistan to measure the real positive interest rate against the headline inflation. The IMF has already brought forward the monetary policy committee meeting date by two weeks to secure a big interest rate hike ahead of the staff level agreement.
In its monthly economic outlook report, the finance ministry said that “inflation will remain around 28% to 30% in the coming months due to the currency depreciation, recent rise in the energy prices and increase in the administered prices”.
At this headline inflation rate, the real interest rate will be negative by 13%. At the core inflation rate, which is around 19%, the real interest rate will be slightly positive after the upcoming hike.
“Pressuring Pakistan into adjusting the interest rates to the headline inflation is tantamount to forcing us to pay the price of global inflation too,” said the sources.
The ministry sources said that the IMF’s attitude towards Pakistan was unreasonable and it was pushing the authorities to take all measures before the staff level agreement, which in normal conditions are being taken after the staff level agreement but before the board meeting.
Pakistan has once again taken up the matter with the US – the key shareholder and often a force for softening or hardening the stance of the global lender
“The finance minister apprised him (the US deputy secretary) of the talks held with IMF mission on the 9th review and shared that as minister he had successfully completed the IMF programme in the past and that the government is committed to complete the present programme,” according to a statement issued by the finance ministry after the meeting.
The finance minister also apprised the US official on the economic priorities of the government to fix the economy to the right path while fulfilling its international obligations, it added.
Wally Adeyemo expressed the confidence in the policies and programmes of the government for economic and financial stability. He further extended his support and cooperation for sustainable economic development in Pakistan.
The sources said that the IMF’s demand to “permanently” impose debt servicing during the next fiscal year surcharge could not be justified.
The IMF programme is going to end in June and it is not understandable why the IMF was pushing Pakistan to take steps for a period when it will not be under the fund programme, said the sources.
They said that the government has already enforced the mini-budget worth Rs170 billion and also approved an increase in electricity and gas prices. Yet, the IMF was taking more than the usual time to conclude the staff level agreement, they added.
Surely Hafeez Shaikh or someone who has worked in IMF would have been more beneficial to negotiate with themBut who is to be believed…
pakistan or imf…
Is it as easy as thatGo default, restructure and write off loans.
Pakistan needs good leadershipDo it before PTI comes to power. K jis din Imran Khan nay halp lya…..
Dollar will come down to 1 rupee bro
Yeah probably notIMF is not going to let its money be used for paying usurious CPEC loan interest.
Govt needs to move fast.,.,
the messes and guest houses and huts being operated by the military need to be ended or handed over to public as well.More importantly
1- exemption status for Fuji foundation, shaheen and bahria foundation needs to end..these are business not non profit organizations...no where in the world do non profit organizations run business (except for health care but that's not a business but service) they control 8% of retail sector and kills any competition
2- govt should go on massive spending cut and sell are govt enterprises be it local hotels(a Network of hotels exist in every district and tehsil) or gold courts(1000+)
3- sell and convert to museum all large land/farm houses.
4- implement retail taxes that they back tracked after bajwa intervened tack and trace system
5- implement property tax..this absolutely must without this money will not go to investment and will be stuck in real estate for ever and non documentation will be a problem.. atleast 1% per ye tax is nothing and will bring 1 trillion ruppees in revenues
6- not allowing non fillers to buy cars or travel aboard ..this should be banned
Can someone do this??
Answer is no..army will not allow it..
Now IMF might ask for some of the above but usually it's not their mandate..IMF can't ask you to do specific things it ask you to just balance your books or implement a reform you ordered.
For example you say you want petroleum levy they may ask you to implement it but they won't ask you to add levy