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Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by Windjammer, Nov 30, 2019.
the indians due to the positive happenings in economy will try its hand at Azad Kashmir.
As far as the weather is concern, their window of opportunity is already gone. In winter paths towards Pakistan are blocked. This is exactly what happened in Kargil war. Winters are best to slaughter people in valley, and in next summers, demographics of Kashmir will be totally changed. Pakistan must act faster now.
Block-3 is still in development stages, no first flight yet
Albeit Indians are trying to put up a brave face with repeatedly false claims of so called surgical strikes and Balakot raids, they in fact are left humiliated and dejected after bold and daring PAF retaliations.
Since then the Indians have been desperate to hit some soft target in Pakistan to redeem themselves, they might just fancy their chances without realising that a response from Pakistan is inevitable and may prove more surprising than before.
I don't think so ! .
Hope not. As much as I’d like to see our boys bust indian backsides, our economy is in no condition to sustain any major engagement.
Same was said in September earlier this year. Nothing happened
I don't know if you have seen the recent interview of Amit Shah. He said that attack on Baltistan/ kashmir will happen suddenly and without notice.
The political arena is also hot in India. If current regime is successful in India, then Congress is done. So you see, we have allies in India.
Remember one thing their goal is to retake all of Kashmir, if India launches an assault it'll be an armored thrust to create a shock and awe factor into Azad Kashmir going all the way up to Chitral. They'll need to go all the way up there to strategically hold Kashmir and try to push Pakistan back - and on top of that cut our access to the Chinese and control the Norther Corridor.
They will hit other points along the International Border but that would most likely be a diversion - they will play the Total War concept up North - they know China would be our life line "Juglar" cut that off and we will be fighting with one hand tied behind our back.
The other issue is they have the numbers on their side right now - for them to launch an assault is relatively easy they already have a million man stationed in Kashmir just need to silently build up their armored forces and have the Forward Operating Bases for their Air Force ready.
We however lack the armor and numbers - hence need to build up our anti-armour capability using ATGMs and Heli's - which we lagged behind some what.
They were just testing the waters to see how we will react -- however we failed to engage them with Ground - Air Missiles and showed weakness.
Enemies don't wait, you either kill when he/she is down or when he's in the ICU room recovering.
For Indian next year or two would be the most optimal time.
I still believe that until we see the tanks moving, the narrative of imminent war is just rhetoric. War between the two countries will not be a matter of winning or loosing but it will be a mutually assured destruction for sure. I cannot say for India, but Pakistan can still deploy around 140 nuclear weapons within 6-10 hours on hair trigger alert. Nuclear mobilization from both states will lower the threshold for nuclear war greatly and hence, the leaders of both states will not wage conventional war.
However, India can initiate some shallow penetration inside Pakistan and more importantly Azad Kashmir. For that purpose, Pakistan's operational readiness and response time (like in February 27) will be crucial. PAF will again play an important role.
I dont think there is room for conventional total war anymore. There can only be localized skirmished and localized violations of state sovereignty in order to stay below the nuclear threshold of Pakistan. Pakistan's nuclear policy is clear that it will deploy tactical nukes to counter the Indian conventional power. Otherwise there is no survival and Pakistan's military establishment will have to live with compromised sovereignty. I cannot see that happen specially with the mindset of our generals, jawans and yes, the people of Pakistan.
I am predicting Indians to enter Azad Kashmir from Chamb sector in an attempt to grab AJK. That’s the only point where Indians deployed above Pakistani positions on ground and Indians have plan to give a push from there.
Circle area is Chamb sector is the plain terrain along the LOC while the rest is mountainous border.
The WAR is inevitable. Modi has spent his life on a war dream with Pakistan and he is having the last chance of his life now. He will definitely do it.
Pakistan should somehow push it back by few years until Pakistan Navy gets modernized and PAF too with block 3 or J-10Cs.
How can Pakistan push it back? It's India if they feel they are ready they'll do It regardless Pakistan wants it now or later.
Can't say much, but we are not that organized yet due to incapable people sitting in big offices.