• Saturday, January 25, 2020

Is Pakistan Ready For War With India?

Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by RiazHaq, Sep 23, 2016.

  1. RiazHaq

    RiazHaq SENIOR MEMBER

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    http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/09/is-pakistan-ready-for-war-with-india.html


    Are Pakistanis willing to fight for their country if attacked by India? To answer this question, let's look at a 2015 survey by WIN/Gallup International that asked people in 64 countries if they would be willing to fight for their country.

    Pakistan's Willingness to Fight:

    The Gallup survey found 89% of Pakistanis answered in the affirmative, a much higher percentage than the world average of 61%. By contrast, it showed 75% of Indians ready to fight for their country. The results ranked Pakistan 3rd and India 10th among 64 countries surveyed.

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    Source: WIN/Gallup International

    Only 11% of the respondents in Japan, the only nation to have suffered the atomic bombing of its two major cities in the second war, said they are willing to fight for their country. Though higher than Japan, most Europeans where people have seen the horrors of wars are among the least willing to fight for their countries.

    There has been a lot of bellicose rhetoric coming out from the Hindu Nationalist government and its compliant Indian media to "teach Pakistan a lesson". It's a clear indication that they continue to suffer from disease described by Congress leader Sashi Tharoor as "India's Israel envy".

    If Modi's India takes leave of its senses and decides to launch strikes against Pakistan, the Indian people could suffer the same horrible fate that fell upon the residents of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    There should be no doubt in New Delhi that Pakistan will respond forcefully to any provocation against it. Pakistan will not hesitate to escalate if Modi's India persists in its war path.

    Below, I am reproducing a 2014 post titled "India's Israel Envy: What if Modi Attacks Pakistan":


    Newly-elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi government's rhetoric about "jaw-breaking" (munh tod) policy toward Pakistan is the latest manifestation of a disease described by Indian diplomat Sashi Tharoor as "India's Israel envy".

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    India's Israel Envy:

    India's Israel envy is reinforced by the Hindu Nationalists over-estimating their country's strengthwhile under-estimating Pakistan's. It's aided by India's western allies' belief that Pakistan can not fight a conventional war with india and its only option to defend itself would be to quickly escalate the conflict into a full scale nuclear war.

    Indian MP Mani Shankar Aiyar has summed up India's war rhetoric against Pakistan in a recent Op Ed as follows:

    (Indian Defense Minister) Arun Jaitley thumps his chest and proclaims that we have given the Pakis a "jaw-breaking reply" (munh tod jawab). Oh yeah? The Pakistanis are still there - with their jaw quite intact and a nuclear arsenal nestling in their pockets. (Indian Home Minister) Rajnath Singh adds that the Pakis had best understand that "a new era has dawned". How? Is retaliatory fire a BJP innovation? Or is it that we have we ceased being peace-loving and become a war-mongering nation? And (Indian Prime Minister Narendra) Modi thunders that his guns will do the talking (boli nahin, goli). Yes - and for how long?

    India's Delusions:

    Indians, particularly Hindu Nationalists, have become victims of their own hype as illustrated by Times of India's US correspondent who checked into the veracity of claimed achievements of Indians in America and found such claims to be highly exaggerated: "On Monday, the Indian government itself consecrated the oft-circulated fiction as fact in Parliament, possibly laying itself open to a breach of privilege. By relaying to Rajya Sabha members (as reported in The Times of India) a host of unsubstantiated and inflated figures about Indian professionals in US, the government also made a laughing stock of itself." The Times of India's Chidanand Rajghatta ended up debunking all of the inflated claims about the number of Indian physicians, NASA scientists and Microsoft engineers in America.

    Similarly, a US GAO investigation found that India's IT exports to the United States are exaggerated by as much as 20 times. The biggest source of discrepancy that GAO found had to do with India including temporary workers' salaries in the United States. India continuously and cumulatively adds all the earnings of its migrants to US in its software exports. If 50,000 Indians migrate on H1B visas each year, and they each earn $50,000 a year, that's a $2.5 billion addition to their exports each year. Cumulatively over 10 years, this would be $25 billion in exports year after year and growing.

    Since the end of the Cold War, the West has been hyping India's economic growth to persuade the developing world that democracy and capitalism offer a superior alternative to rapid development through state guided capitalism under an authoritarian regime---a system that has worked well in Asia for countries like the Asian Tigers and China. This has further fooled Hindu Nationalists into accepting such hype as real. It ignores the basic fact that India is home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates. It also discounts the reality that Indian kids rank near the bottom on international assessment tests like PISA and TIMSS due to the poor quality of education they receive. The hype has emboldened many Indians, including the BJP leadership, to push neighbors around.

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    Defense Spending as Percentage of GDP Source: World Indicators


    Pakistan's Response:

    Pakistan has so far not responded to the Indian rhetoric in kind. It might create an impression that Pakistan is weak and unable to respond to such threats with its conventional force. So let's examine the reality.

    Ground War:

    In the event of a ground war, Pakistan will most likely follow its "offensive defense" doctrine with its two strike corps pushing deep inside Indian territory. Though Indian military has significant numerical advantage, Pakistan's armor is as strong, if not stronger, than the Indian armor.

    Before embarking on further offensive, gains shall be consolidated. Pakistan is also as strong, if not stronger, in terms of ballistic and cruise missiles inventory and capability, putting all of India within its range. These missiles are capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads.

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    India-Pakistan Firepower Comparison Source: GlobalFirepower.com


    In 1990 the Central Corps of Reserves was created to fight in the desert sectors, where enemy land offensives are expected. These dual capable formations trained for offensive and holding actions are fully mechanized. The Pakistan Army has ten Corps including the newly formed Strategic Corps. The Army has twenty-six divisions (eight less than India). Two more divisions were raised as Corps reserves for V and XXXI Corps. The Army has two armored divisions, and ten independent armored brigades. Presently one hundred thousand troops are stationed on the Pak-Afghan border to fight terror.

    The Special Service Group – SSG - comprises two airborne Brigades, i.e. six battalions. Pakistan Army has 360 helicopters, over two thousand heavy guns, and 3000 APC’s. Its main anti-tank weapons are Tow, Tow Mk II, Bakter Shiken and FGM 148 ATGM. The Army Air Defense Command has S.A- 7 Grail, General Dynamics FIM-92 Stinger, GD FIM Red Eye, and ANZA Mk-I, Mk-II, Mk-III and HQ 2 B surface to air missiles. Radar controlled Oerlikon is the standard Ack Ack weapon system.

    The ballistic missile inventory of the Army is substantial. It comprises intermediate range Ghauri III and Shaheen III; medium range Ghauri I and II and Shaheen II, and short range tactical Hatf I- B, Abdali, Ghaznavi, Nasr, Shaheen I and M -11 missiles. All the ballistic missiles can carry nuclear warheads....some can carry multiple warheads. Nuclear and conventional weapon capable Babur Cruise missile is the new addition to Pakistan’s strategic weapon inventory. It has stealth features to evade radar to penetrate India's air air-space to hit targets. The number of ballistic missiles and warheads are almost the same as those of India. So there is a parity in nuclear weapons, which is a deterrent.

    Tactical missile which can be tipped with miniaturized nuclear warhead is the latest addition to Pakistan's arsenal. It's a battlefield weapon designed to destroy enemy troop concentrations poised against Pakistan.

    Air War:

    Pakistan has about 900 aircraft compared to India's 1800, giving India 2:1 numerical advantage over Pakistan. India's biggest advantage is in transport aircraft (700 vs 230) while Pakistan has some numerical advantage in two areas: Airborne radars (9 vs 3)and attack helicopters (48 vs 20).

    Pakistan Air Force has over 100 upgraded F-16s and 200 rebuilt Mirage- 3's (for night air defense) and Mirage-5's for the strike role. They can carry nuclear weapons. They have been upgraded with new weapon systems, radars, and avionics. Additionally, the PAF 150 F-7's including 55 latest F-7 PG’s. Manufacture of 150 JF 17 Thunder fighters (jointly designed) is underway at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Kamra. The JF-17 Thunder is a 4th generation fly by wire multi-role fighter aircraft. Eight are already in PAF service. An order has been placed with China for the purchase of 36 JF-10, a Mach 2.3 -5th generation multi-role fighter, comparable in performance to the Su-30 Mk-1 with the Indian Air Force.

    In spite of Indian Air Force's numerical superiority since independence in 1947, Pakistan Air Force has performed well against it in several wars. The PAF pilots have always been among the best trained in the world.

    Complimenting the Pakistan Air Force pilots, the legendary US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager who broke the sound barrier, wrote in his biography "The Right Stuff": "This Air Force (the PAF), is second to none". He continued: "The (1971) air war lasted two weeks and the Pakistanis scored a three-to-one kill ratio, knocking out 102 Russian-made Indian jets and losing thirty-four airplanes of their own. I'm certain about the figures because I went out several times a day in a chopper and counted the wrecks below." "They were really good, aggressive dogfighters and proficient in gunnery and air combat tactics. I was damned impressed. Those guys just lived and breathed flying. "

    In 1965, Roy Meloni of the ABC reported: "Pakistan claims to have destroyed something like 1/3rd the Indian Air Force, and foreign observers, who are in a position to know say that Pakistani pilots have claimed even higher kills than this; but the Pakistani Air Force are being scrupulously honest in evaluating these claims. They are crediting Pakistan Air Force only those killings that can be checked from other sources."
    Naval War:

    Of the three branches of the military, India's advantage over Pakistan is the greatest in naval strength. Pakistan has just 84 sea-going vessels of various kinds versus India's 184.

    Pakistan Navy can still inflict substantial damage on the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy has 17 submarines. Pakistan Navy has ten, some are brand new and equipped with AIP. Indian Navy has 28 war ships, Pakistan Navy has eleven.

    As seen in the past wars, India will attempt a naval blockade of Pakistan. Here's how MIT's Christopher Clary discusses in his doctoral thesis the Indian Navy's ability to repeat a blockade of Pakistan again:

    "Most analyses do not account adequately for how difficult it would be for the (Indian) navy to have a substantial impact in a short period of time. Establishing even a partial blockade takes time, and it takes even more time for that blockade to cause shortages on land that are noticeable. As the British strategist Julian Corbett noted in 1911, "it is almost impossible that a war can be decided by naval action alone. Unaided, naval pressure can only work by a process of exhaustion. Its effects must always be slow…. ". Meanwhile, over the last decade, Pakistan has increased its ability to resist a blockade. In addition to the main commercial port of Karachi, Pakistan has opened up new ports further west in Ormara and Gwadar and built road infrastructure to distribute goods from those ports to Pakistan's heartland. To close off these ports to neutral shipping could prove particularly difficult since Gwadar and the edge of Pakistani waters are very close to the Gulf of Oman, host to the international shipping lanes for vessels exiting the Persian Gulf. A loose blockade far from shore would minimize risks from Pakistan's land-based countermeasures but also increase risks of creating a political incident with neutral vessels."

    Summary:

    The chances of India prevailing over Pakistan in a conventional war now are very remote at best. Any advantage that India seeks over Pakistan would require it to pay a very heavy price in terms of massive destruction of India's industry, economy and infrastructure that would set India back many decades.

    In the event that the India-Pakistan war spirals out of control and escalates into a full-scale nuclear confrontation, the entire region, including China, would suffer irreparable damage. Even a limited nuclear exchange would devastate food production around the world, according to International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, as reported in the media. It would set off a global famine that could kill two billion people and effectively end human civilization as we know it.

    I hope that better sense will prevail in New Delhi and India's BJP government will desists from any military adventurism against Pakistan. The consequences of any miscalculation by Narendra Modi will be horrible, not just for both the countries, but the entire humanity.
    Here's a video discussion on the subject:

    Related Links:

    Haq's Musings

    India Teaching Young Students Akhand Bharat

    Pakistan Army at the Gates of Delhi

    India's War Myths

    India-Pakistan Military Balance

    Pakistan Army Capabilities

    Modi's Pakistan Policy

    India's Israel Envy

    Can India Do a Lebanon in Pakistan?
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    http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/09/is-pakistan-ready-for-war-with-india.html
     
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  2. HIT AND RUN

    HIT AND RUN BANNED

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    http://tribune.com.pk/story/1185706/india-incapable-waging-war-pakistan-experts-say/

    International experts and analysts believe India lacks the intelligence and capabilities needed to execute targeted strikes or wage a limited war in Pakistani territory.


    Pakistan won’t cower to threats, Nisar warns India

    Indian officials have also cautioned against any adventurism following the military asking the govt to consider ‘surgical strikes’, covert military operations or hot pursuits inside Pakistani territory, adding that Pakistan is no Myanmar, where Indian Para-SF troops conducted a transborder raid to take out militants in June 2015. “The government has to take into account that any strike inside Pakistan can escalate into an all-out war. Pakistan, of course, often threatens first-use of tactical nuclear weapons if it is attacked by India,” an official said.

    India and Pakistan are facing a war-like situation after militants attacked an army base in Indian-occupied Kashmir on Sunday, killing 18 soldiers. India has blamed the attack on a Pakistan-based group, despite denials from Islamabad. It accuses Pakistan of supporting ‘militant’ attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, which both claim in full but rule only in part.

    India blatantly trying to deflect attention from Kashmir: Aziz

    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently raised the stakes in their decades-old feud by expressing support for separatists within Pakistan. Pakistan denies any role in cross-border terrorism, and has called on the United Nations and the international community to investigate atrocities it alleges have been committed by the security forces in Indian-occupied Kashmir.
     
  3. ejaz007

    ejaz007 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Yes we are ready.
     
  4. fitpOsitive

    fitpOsitive SENIOR MEMBER

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    Let Imran Khan return from Riawind, all media war fever will go away.
     
  5. P@nThEr

    P@nThEr BANNED

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    In PDF we are ready..
     
  6. Indiran Chandiran

    Indiran Chandiran BANNED

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    Rhetorical question.Pakistan is always ready to war with India.Even if they aren't ready , they're ready.
     
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  7. graphican

    graphican ELITE MEMBER

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    An interesting aspect to look at would be level of moral on both sides. Pakistan and Kashmirs are fighting to get their land free, and liberate population of Kashmir - while Indian soldiers are fighting to keep population as slave and continue to occupy a territory. Its two different minds, two different causes, two different levels of motivations.

    A US General had revealed why Americans lost their war in Afghanistan and he explained when Americans fight, they know they are fighting to capture a territory which never belonged to them, but on the other hand Afghans fight to liberate their land from a foreign occupation. Afghans win over Americans as they are at higher moral and fighting for a better cause.
     
  8. Kaniska

    Kaniska ELITE MEMBER

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    It could have been a better question about when Pakistan is not ready to fight a war with India???...
     
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  9. VivasvatManu

    VivasvatManu BANNED

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    They are ready to eat grass for the nuclear bum and now they are ready to stop drinking water for terrorists.

    The only people who seems to be unaware are the pakistani themselves, which is why this post is for pakistanis, not the rest of the world. :P
     
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  10. Mysticbuddy

    Mysticbuddy FULL MEMBER

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    You have assembled all the data but that no way looks closer to your conclusions. Sorry to say are delusional. With no parameter being the saving grace of Pakistan there is no way shape or form Pakistan can survive the onslaught from India in the conventional parity.

    You smartly mentioned the percentages but not the actual numbers. Their army is more than your regulars and reserved combined. You have nothing to back your claim in conventional war. Yes the nuclear weapons brings the parity between both the nations but I don't think that will be good for Pakistan and its own existence. See there has been India and China before cristopher Columbus discovered the America. You nation is new to the world stage and this is only making it worse. You should not use the nuclear weapons not for the sake of just yourself and family but also for the nation.
     
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  11. RiazHaq

    RiazHaq SENIOR MEMBER

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    #Pakistan prepares operational plan, selects targets in #India: Report. #Kashmir http://toi.in/9fsf-Z via @TOIWorld

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...gets-in-India-Report/articleshow/54477735.cms

    Pakistan's armed forces have reportedly selected targets in India in case the latter decides to move first with strikes against the country. In a Geo TV report, it is stated that an operational plan has also been prepared by the military establishment to retaliate against any possible offensive from across the border.
    Quoting sources placed in the defense establishment, the news report states that targets in 'war-mongering' India have been selected in case of 'aggression or surgical strikes from the enemy.' One such source has said that Pakistan is fully prepared to counter India. "Pakistan is fully prepared to meet any military challenge from India. Our operational plan is ready, quid pro quo targets are finalised and forces have been dedicated."

    Another source is quoted as saying that regardless of the nature of developments in the weeks to come, Pakistan forces will remain on high alert. "Whether it is a Cold Start or hot pursuit, we are ready. India is well aware of our capabilities and also knows the fact that despite the Pakistan Army's participation in internal security issues, a military balance is well maintained to meet any challenge from across the border."
    The source even went to the extent of saying that 'in case of surgical attack from India, Pakistan would immediately respond for which targets had already been set.'
    Tensions between India and Pakistan have spiked since the terror attack on an Indian army base+ in Uri on Sunday. Four terrorists were gunned down but 18 brave soldiers also lost their lives, even as India came out strongly+ to condemn the incident and the entire terror network in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (Azad Kashmir). Indian security establishment even provided the government with a variety of punitive but limited actions possible against Pakistan without actually going to war, which range from "surgical strikes" to "cross-border raids" by special forces or ghatak platoons of infantry battalions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also promised+ that perpetrators of the ghastly attack would be brought to justice. These may have played a big role in Pakistan becoming rather jittery.
    Furthermore, there was a report that Indian forces had crossed the Line of Control+ near Uri and eliminated 20 terrorists in a surgical strike. This though was denied by Indian Army sources.

    Across the border, military preparations seem to have begun in earnest. Pakistan declared a no-fly zone across some of its northern regions where Pakistan Air Force conducted combat exercises which were later termed 'routine.' On Thursday night, a Pakistani journalist even tweeted that F-16 jets were flying over Islamabad in what may have been an air drill.
     
  12. Hellfire

    Hellfire SENIOR MEMBER

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    At OP

    Good for you .. point being? Convincing yourselves? While India has not even mobilised and only Indian media has mobilised, you had to re-assure yourselves with this?:coffee:
     
  13. AntiToxic

    AntiToxic BANNED

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    I think this oldie needs to get a life... when indian media and some politicians said something. and all panicked in pakistan... stock market tanked... they closed their airspace in kashmir region and cancelled flights.. look at the stupidity and loss.. and India did not even fire a single bullet.................and now they are comparing to convincing themselves..... bunch of idiots
     
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  14. Leviza

    Leviza SENIOR MEMBER

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    Funny

    This is coming from a person who is national of the only country who ever used NUKES on others.. lecturing others from your keyboard is the most easy job in the world...
     
  15. JonAsad

    JonAsad ELITE MEMBER

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    Indian surgical strikes locations might change - but we have same locations for a counter attack - so yeah we are well prepared rehearsed and ready - bring it on!!!