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aryobarzan

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request:
But is this the discussion about the economy or about the IRIAF?
In a sense both are related..The argument against IRIAF has always been lack of resources so thats why the GDP becomes relative..

One last word about figures I presented and I shut up..lol

I extracted all the GDP figures for the three countries from the same source (world Bank 2020 published data)...just to ensure consistency for all countries...
 

TheImmortal

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l. You can't just claim something and say it is from World Bank and then send me to a web page on their website that does not claim what you have said. You must provide a link that exactly shows your claim, which was not the case for the chart you had showed earlier.

So, you are basically saying that Iran's economy has shrunk by 60% in 3 years. Is that what you are saying?
Well now I lost respect for you. Because you are lying or trolling or just plain dumb.

If you click this link


It will show this picture below. I even kept the URL so your aghab moonde self can see it’s from the world bank website.

0D2AAFE9-A90D-4726-9773-78D792B8516E.jpeg


You keep parroting this 4.4 figure but you don’t fail to realize it’s for importation of finished goods not primarily used in the manufacture of value goods or export.

That is why during COVID there was a huge uproar in Iran when it was found out that some mobile phone stores were importing IPhones from Dubai using government channel of 4.4 rate when the funds were only to be used for critical necessity like food, medicine, medical devices, etc importing any of these products does not add to the chain production value of a good that goes into GDP especially if it is a finished good.

Iranian factories are not exporting goods to foreign buyers at 4.4 clip but real market Rate of 27.5 this is something you fail to grasp and keep clinging onto a nominal gdp graph that is taking in a rate of exchange that for all purposes is irrelevant and rarely seen in Iranian economy

So, you are basically saying that Iran's economy has shrunk by 60% in 3 years. Is that what you are saying?
You are valuing the Iranian economy GDP in dollars, dollars that have since appreciated against your respective currency

So one reason GDP (IN DOLLARS IN DOLLARS) has gone down is because IRANIAN CURRENCY HAS DEPRECIATED SEVERELY AGAINST US DOLLAR SO IT IS NOW WORTH LESS (IN DOLLARS IN DOLLARS) than before.


I swear it’s like explaining something to a child. And world bank chart t using current USD variable uses the latest currency rate not the fake rarely ever used government rate.

I will explain it another way that even you can understand:

I buy land in Iran let’s say land is worth 100,000 Toman and let’s say $1 USD = 1000 toman. How much is my land valued (in dollars in dollars)? It’s worth 100,000 USD

Now let’s say currency depreciates and now my $1 USD= 10,000 toman. How much is my same 100,000 land worth in dollars? It is worth $10,000 USD

So one reason you are seeing the GDP crash is because the value of what you are measuring is being measured against something that is continually appreciating while your currency (ri is continually weakening.

BUT THAT IS NOT ONLY REASON

During Trump maximum pressure you had:
  1. Iranian oil exports go to basically zero
  2. World oil prices go from $90 to less than $10
  3. A once in a century pandemic shut down the Iranian economy for a significant period of time and impact the economy already reeling from sanctions very harshly
So to answer your question the Iranian economy shrunk during this period alongside the currency upheaval. This period that was even worse for Iran economically than the Iran-Iraq war according to some officials.

How much did it shrink by? I would have to do some research, but your figure of 60% while extreme...is over 3 years and the panademic skews the data value loss because large parts of the economy were shut down due to quarantine and not entirely “lost”.
 
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TheImmortal

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I extracted all the GDP figures for the three countries from the same source (world Bank 2020 published data)...just to ensure consistency for all countries...
Actually you didn’t because

Turkey based on nominal US GDP using 2010 rates is this:

B4307261-D4FF-4AC9-AA60-C38E5C592581.jpeg


1.284T USD

But when we use (Current $USD) to account for the drop in Lira in last decade we get this:

DE92B359-33D1-4B9D-ACB7-DBAD1867D6F6.png


$720B USD


Curiously enough you use current USD for Turkey, yet nominal GDP for Iran to show Iranian and Turkish economy being similar in size. I respect you so I am going to say this was an error and not a blatant attempt at manipulating presentation of data.

In reality, under nominal GDP measure using non-real world numbers Turkish economy is in best case scenario 2x Iranian economy size. Thus not anywhere close like you made it seem.

I think we can all agree there is no way in hell Turkish Erodgan economy is 1.2T USD today thus using nominal GDP based on 2010 USD rate is useless for grasping today’s values.

So when we take the true currency rate of both countries as represented by the variable Current $USD....both countries suffer in drop in the value of their economy as both countries curriences have plummeted against the dollar and Iran suffers the most due to a much worse drop (1.2 to 27.5)
 

QWECXZ

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Well now I lost respect for you. Because you are lying trolling or just plain dumb.

If you click this link


It will show this picture below. I even kept the URL so your aghab moonde self can see it’s from the world bank website.

View attachment 785367

You keep parroting this 4.4 figure but you don’t fail to realize it’s for importation of finished goods not primarily used in the manufacture of value goods or export.

That is why during COVID there was a huge uproar in Iran when it was found out that some mobile phone stores were importing IPhones from Dubai using government channel of 4.4 rate when the funds were only to be used for critical necessity like food, medicine, medical devices, etc importing any of these products does not add to the chain production value of a good that goes into GDP especially if it is a finished good.

Iranian factories are not exporting goods to foreign buyers at 4.4 clip but real market Rate of 27.5 this is something you fail to grasp and keep clinging onto a nominal gdp graph that is taking in a rate of exchange that for all purposes is irrelevant and rarely seen in Iranian economy



You are valuing the Iranian economy GDP in dollars, dollars that have since appreciated against your respective currency

So one reason GDP (IN DOLLARS IN DOLLARS) has gone down is because IRANIAN CURRENCY HAS DEPRECIATED SEVERELY AGAINST US DOLLAR SO IT IS NOW WORTH LESS (IN DOLLARS IN DOLLARS) than before.


I swear it’s like explaining something to a child.

I will explain it another way that even you can understand:

I buy land in Iran let’s say land is worth 100,000 Toman and let’s say $1 USD = 1000 toman. How much is my land valued (in dollars in dollars)? It’s worth 100,000 USD

Now let’s say currency depreciates and now my $1 USD= 10,000 toman. How much is my same 100,000 land worth in dollars? It is worth $10,000

So one reason you are seeing the GDP crash is because the value of what you are measuring is being measured against something that is continually appreciating.

BUT THAT IS NOT ONLY REASON

During Trump maximum pressure you had:
  1. Iranian oil exports go to basically zero
  2. World oil prices go from $90 to less than $10
  3. A once in a century pandemic shut down the Iranian economy for a significant period of time and impact the economy already reeling from sanctions very harshly
Koskhol, your example of buying a land is quite ridiculous and out of the place in this conversation. The depreciation of Rial in the free market is not linearly proportional to Iran's nominal GDP. That's probably where your laughable and idiotic argument about Iran's nominal GDP being equal to 15 trillion dollars (with 2010 prices) came from.

In 1979, 1 USD = 70 IRR and Iran's nominal GDP was $90B. Now 1 USD ~ 270,000 IRR. Does that mean that the nominal GDP of Iran must have somehow grown by 8,140 times to cancel out the effect of depreciation of our currency for a nominal GDP (according to you) of $190B?! A 8,140 growth in 42 years requires an annual growth of 24% in average! A growth of 24% for every single year for 42 years straight. Enghadr khari?

What you are trying to say, and failing badly at it, is that Iran's real GDP, i.e. adjusted for inflation, must be way lower than $600B. If you had said that, there would be no argument. But we have been talking about Iran's nominal GDP since the beginning and Aryobarzan is right. Iran's nominal GDP is indeed somewhere between $600B to $630B for 2020.

 

925boy

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Yeah you are cherry picking data because they are using the 2010 figure for USD in a bid to “smooth” the chart of volatility for all countries.

If Iran was a normal operating developed country then this method wouldn’t be an issue. But for Iran (and Turkey) or any country going thru severe hyper inflation or severe currency weakening then this will lead to a false data set.

If you were even trading/business in Iran, you know that in 2010 $1USD to 1,200 toman. Oil revenues were at all time highs. Hardly a reasonable rate to use in 2021 when it’s $1USD equals 27,000.

Same source World bank, but using CURRENT USD

View attachment 785336

Seems you want to argue semantics rather then truly trying to understand the true value of the Iranian economy at this point in time.

I can’t imagine anyone seriously thinking Iranian economy is $650B at this point in time given the sanctions and COVID crisis on the economy.

To see how absurd this proposition is: if Iran’s economy was $650B USD in 2020 that means if Iran’s currency strengths back to 2010 levels than Iran’s economy with no future growth would be worth almost 5 TRILLION dollars

Absolutely laughable as that would mean Iran would have the 3rd Biggest Economy in the world.
The recent report on millionaires in the world that said Iran has the largest # of new millionaires in the world, that suggests an economy more than $200bn. Even from Iran's technology and export numbers, Iran is over $200bn. wow, i just have to say, i think you thinking IRan's gdp is $200bn says more about you than IRan, just an fyi. lol. Iran that is expanding so many strategic industries AND inventing technologies that are exported? Especially since UN sanctions are over? Iran would be more like NIgeria tbh if its gdp was 200bn$.....thats a smaaall amount of money for a country like Iran....ARE YOU KIDDING ME? LOOOL. your belief here is fascinating....you account for the obvious and ignore the fact that the unobvious and hidden aspects could be and are probably huge and very impactful.
 

TheImmortal

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is that Iran's real GDP, i.e. adjusted for inflation, must be way lower than $600B. If you had said that, there would be no argument.
I see you dropped your claim that my source was not world bank very quickly. And won’t have the decency to admit you were wrong in questioning my source let alone saying my link was a lie and didn’t lead to world bank.

I have said that multiple times that Iran’s true GDP is way lower and you continued to stick to nominal GDP as an indication of Iran’s true value. And when it comes to Iran nominal GDP all I said was it was wrong because it uses 4.4 figure and not 27.5 figure. The 4.4 figure has very little effect on GDP since it’s a figure used for import of finished goods. Are you going to argue this?


since the beginning and Aryobarzan is right.
Wrong, he used Turkey’s real gdp (720B) to compare to Iran’s nominal gdp (650B) to say both countries are similar in size economy wise.

Yet Turkey’s nominal GDP is 1.25T USD and thus twice Iran’s nominal GDP using the 4.4 figure (an inaccurate currency rate but whatever).

So you weren’t even comparing apples to apples. But apples to watermelons.

So Turkey real GDP valued in dollars is a better indicator considering Erdogan is driving that country in the ground. And Iran’s real gdp using the actual widely used market rate is the better figure.

That was the whole point of me arguing with you what is a true indicator of Iranian GDP. I could care less what nominal GDP is, much less a nominal GDP using a currency exchange figure that 1 in 100 business transactions has access too.
 
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Sainthood 101

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Learning a few Quranic verses in elementary school and later forgetting those few sentences is hardly ''learning Arabic'' my uncultured camel Bedouin friend.

Persians influenced Arabs and Islam much more. Most of the brilliant Islamic era scholars in the past are of Persian origin. On top of giving life and colour to Islam as a religion the Iranians also preserved their own national identity.. keeping their language, cultural traditions etc until this date.

In your own country, Iraq, a large part of your population, celebrate the Iranian new year Nowruz and other festivals. Who influenced who?

Many Iraqi Arabs can speak Persian too.

Iranian culture today is present in India,Pakistan,Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azarbaijan, Iraq etc

We are getting off topic mate. Let me raise my fine Persian Shirazi wine in your honor.. you can have your camel urine. Cheers.
I have no issues with arabs, a little bit with this guy but not a whole lot

but I literally lol'ed at this, this exchange was frickin hilarious
 

sha ah

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Trump's maximum pressure campaign did have a significantly negative and detrimental effect on Iran's economy at first.However since then Iran's economy has bounced back and Iran has adjusted to the situation.

One of the reasons why Trump was able to do that was because the Rohani administration made the mistake of putting all of Iran's eggs in one basket. All hope was put into the nuclear deal, everything into relations with the west.

Not nearly enough emphasis was put onto Iran having relations with the east, at the very least as potential as a insulation / diversification strategy just incase if something were to happen with the west. That was very short sighted strategy. However in 2016 Iran did see 13% GDP growth right and at first after the deal inflation was slashed. It did work as long as the west stayed in the deal but the deal didn't hold.

Anyways now Iran's economy is steadily growing every year, not explosive growth but steady 2% and higher. Also if we consider GDP per capita it's probably more a more accurate indication for Iran. Different sources give different values, but there's no way that Iran's economy is worth 200 billion only today. That's just silly. Iran has the largest reserves of natural gas on the planet and 4th largest reserves of crude.


1634431532262.png


111111111111111111111.jpg



Right now Iran is selling 1 million barrels to China daily and that's what's admitted officially. The US asked China to cut back on Iranian crude, China outright said "NO WAY" and China just sent 2 men, one is a 50 year old general and one woman to space.

Right now China, the UK, EU, Lebanon are facing power crisis' and the winter has barely just started. Natural gas prices just passed a vital resistance point which indicates that it "could" go as high as 2008 rates. western Europe decided not to sign long term deals with Russia so they're screwed. Poland, Hungary are fine though because they locked in long term prices with Russia.

That's the thing about renewables. What happens when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine ? I mean that's rare right but that's basically what's happening. Even in 20 years from now I'm telling you fuel has to be in the mix atleast 1/3rd or 20% of consumption for any nation just in case right ?

Anyways aside from China, we know that right now Iran is supplying what Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon, Venezuela and this is what we know about in the media. Right now Iran's oil / energy sales are likely on par or above pre-Trump sanctions level sales.

Also in terms of Turkey economy. Remember in 2005 they slashed 6 zeros. It was 1 USD o 1.2 Lira then 1 USD to 1.5, now it's what 1 to 9 ? It's going to 10 and above. I don't even know how Erdogan can get re-elected since 80% of Istanbul is against his Canal Istanbul project. His relatives are direct beneficiaries of that project.

Another issue with Erdogan is that he keeps insisting on keeping interest rates low to lower inflation. 99% of economists suggest the opposite stating that keeping interest low leads to higher inflation. It's obvious, he doesn't want to lose his own family and friends access to cheap loans. It's that simple.

Economists suggest that since Erdogan came to power Turkey has become wealthier but the average Turk is not wealthier, so then where did the wealth go ? Who did become wealthier ? Didn't you see the report on the Aliyev family in the Pandora papers ?

Corruption exists everywhere. You think in the west it doesn't ? Look at Nancy Pelosi. She makes $200,000 per year working a government job. That's 2 million in 10 years. In 20 years that's 4 million she could accumulate assuming she had no expenses.

How does she have a fortune worth $200 million ? Apparently her husband is a professional investor but realistically Is he the best investor on earth ? Better that Buffer or Bezos ? Btw why does Bezos pay an average tax rate of 1-2% per year while high school teachers pay a higher percentage ?

It's all legal though, it's all through tax loop holes, because when you have that much money, you can "lobby" government officials through "lobby funds". Essentially you're transfer funds to people on influence through lobby groups or political donations and it's all Kosher on paper.

On paper you're not getting anything in return and it's all legal. However when people in power are passing laws that favor them financially, then in reality the wealthiest are using their wealth to fix the system so that the tax burden falls on the middle class rather than super wealthy billionaires, is it fair though ? is it right ? Is it just ? It is moral ? Is it corruption ? class favoritism ? No but it's just the way it is.

What about real estate in the west, all the money, where is it coming from ? 1/3rd of house sales are from offshore shell companies. Where did the money come from ? Many analysts believe it's corruption money funneled from China.

What do you think has been happening in China with Xi cracking down hard on various industries one after another ? Why are there so many empty ghost cities or half finished projects in China ? Who keeps the money ? Where does it go ? Ordinary people take out a loan with interest so that they can put a down payment on an apartment before it's even built.

The company then builds a shell, claims insolvency and ordinary citizens are left to pay off the loans while in reality the billions if not trillions has been funneled and entire families have moved to the west with dirty money they funneled. If companies were allowed to keep operating this bubble would have swallowed up the entire world.

Instead Xi introduced new restrictions, more regulations which level out the playing field and some CEOs and wealthy individuals are closely monitored, not allowed to leave the country. In the end, if they don't pay back the loans, they can pay with their lives. Honestly it's a more just system than unregulated capitalism.

Unregulated capitalism without any restrictions or oversight will always lead to greed becoming too prevalent, which leads to another crash or recession/depression. Who suffer during these downturns ? Ordinary people, middle class. Who actually become wealthier during these times ? The super wealthy of course. Some Americans are so dumb they act as if they invented capitalism and they think it's the greatest think since the invention of the wheel. It's just a vicious cycle repeating itself over and over again and again.


Actually you didn’t because

Turkey based on nominal US GDP using 2010 rates is this:

View attachment 785375

1.284T USD

But when we use (Current $USD) to account for the drop in Lira in last decade we get this:

View attachment 785376

$720B USD


Curiously enough you use current USD for Turkey, yet nominal GDP for Iran to show Iranian and Turkish economy being similar in size. I respect you so I am going to say this was an error and not a blatant attempt at manipulating presentation of data.

In reality, under nominal GDP measure using non-real world numbers Turkish economy is in best case scenario 2x Iranian economy size. Thus not anywhere close like you made it seem.

I think we can all agree there is no way in hell Turkish Erodgan economy is 1.2T USD today thus using nominal GDP based on 2010 USD rate is useless for grasping today’s values.

So when we take the true currency rate of both countries as represented by the variable Current $USD....both countries suffer in drop in the value of their economy as both countries curriences have plummeted against the dollar and Iran suffers the most due to a much worse drop (1.2 to 27.5)
 
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sanel1412

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This is interesting,according to this..upon arival in Moscov,Bagheri said that His trip is follow up of the arms deal signed with Russia after embargo is lifted in UN last year


Here is article from Tehran news
Based on UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the arms embargo against Iran ended in October 2020.


"This trip is taking place at the beginning of the thirteenth administration, and Mr. Raisi's administration has a specific look to the East and Asian countries, and also the membership of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Shanghai Pact is an important event, and certainly the cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia will be further developed in this regard," Baqeri stated.


Major General Baqeri was visiting Moscow upon invitation by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.


"We are cooperating with the Armed Forces of Russia, and in recent years this cooperation has expanded further. At this juncture, my visit is at the invitation of the Russian Minister of Defense. In addition to the bilateral military issues that we have and should pursue, the issue of Afghanistan is one of the issues that will be specifically discussed by the two sides," Baqeri said upon his arrival in Moscow.


The top general stated that the events in Afghanistan would definitely affect the countries of the region, including the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation, and other countries, and these issues would be raised during the trip, Fars News reported.


The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces said Iran and Russia have been cooperating in the fields of military training, military competitions, exchange of experiences, defense industry, and joint cooperation for full security in Syria.


Baqeri’s visit to Russia took place immediately after his travel to Pakistan, where the two countries agreed to hold joint naval exercises.

Wrong article..sorry


TEHRAN – In the latest sign of activating Iran’s new policy orientation, a senior Iranian general started a regional tour that included visits to two pivotal neighbors of the country in a bid to strengthen regional ties and dispel threats emanating from recent developments in the region.


Iran’s Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri arrived in Moscow on Sunday as part of his renewed efforts to improve relations with a number of Iran’s neighbors. The visit was done at the official invitation of Russian Defense Minister General Sergei Shoigu.


In addition to Shoigu, the Iranian general also met his Russian counterpart, Valery Gerasimov. During his visit, Bagheri discussed two main things: Arms deals with Russia and regional developments, especially Afghanistan.


The Iranian embassy in Moscow said in a mid-October announcement that Bagheri will “exchange views with Russian officials on the development of cooperation and joint defense and military relations, the fight against terrorism, and reviewing regional and international changes.”


Bagheri himself said upon his arrival in Russia that he will pursue the implementation of an arms deal for purchasing fighter jets, training jets, and combat helicopters from Russia. During a meeting with Iranian experts at the Iranian embassy in Moscow, the senior general pointed out that the deal had been signed in the aftermath of the lifting of a UN arms embargo on Iran in October last year.


He confirmed that discussions on mutual cooperation, defense, and military relations, the latest regional and international developments, as well as the fight against terrorism, are on the agenda of his visit to Moscow.


“We need a roadmap to have strong relations with countries, especially Russia and other neighboring countries,” the general said, according to Iran’s state news agency, IRNA.


The visit to Russia came at a time when Afghanistan still has no internationally recognized government in the wake of the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul. Iran has voiced concerns over the possible rise of terrorism in Afghanistan after the Taliban overran Kabul. Recent suicide attacks against Shi’ite prayers in two mosques in Afghanistan have only exacerbated these concerns. Iran warned of sectarian sedition in Afghanistan after these attacks claimed the lives of dozens of Shi’ite Muslims.


“The Foreign Ministry also warns of plots by the enemies of the Islamic ummah to cause divisions, and stresses the need for unity and solidarity among Shias and Sunnis and for rejection of violence and extremism in the name of Islam. This heart-wrenching incident and the past tragic events including the terrorist attack in Konduz highlight more than ever before the need for beefing up security and boosting protection of Shia and Sunni worshiping places and other gatherings in Afghanistan. The Islamic Republic of Iran is confident that our Muslim brothers and sisters in Afghanistan will foil the divisive schemes of their enemies through solidarity, co-thinking and joint efforts,” the Iranian foreign ministry said in a statement earlier this week.


Bagheri said the developments in Afghanistan were an important part of his talks with the Russian officials. His visit to Russia also came on the heels of another visit to Pakistan where he met with high-ranking Pakistani military officials to discuss Afghanistan.


In Moscow, Bagheri said he succeeded in dispelling “negative mentalities” just as he did in Pakistan.


General Bagheri rarely makes foreign visits. So, his tour of Pakistan and Russia is of real importance particularly in terms of reiterating the new trend in the foreign policy of Iranian President Ayatollah Seyed Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, which is based on closer cooperation and consultations with neighboring countries.
 
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