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aryobarzan

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hehe, I have heard that expression in the West in so many different flavors.

A giant project needs to be broken up again and again to smaller pieces, until there are single manageable tasks and then it is suddenly doable - that is what I learned from the crazy project called NIMROD MRA4 (1993-2010 RIP). yaaaeeeks.

Well said Aryobarzan.
Funny I have also done projects that at day one seemed almost impossible..ask Lockheed guys in here..lol..there is a fundamental truth to that "elephant" expression that you only realize it when you see an " elephant" and manage to eat it..lol
 

EvilWesteners

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This is really getting tedious. Again, for the third time: There is a very specific reason, namely the massively increased hostility of the US against Russia, that gives reason to expect that this time it might be different.

A valid counterargument could be that there was not much of a rational justification for the Russian pandering even before the US ratcheted its hostility massively up. But your point seems to be, quite on the contrary, that it was and still would be rational and beneficial for Russia to toe the US line - an obviously nonsensical assertion.



I really wish that people would actually read what I write - I already answered those assertions. My point was precisely, that it would be completely futile and irrational for Russia to try to pander to the US. Let's assume the Russian government would deny a fighter sale to Iran. Would the US now pat the head of Russia: "Well done, now we are again BFF"

Of course not! Russia will gain absolutely nothing; there will be no US quid for a Russian quo, as there was none in all the previous instances.

As for the Ukraine situation, it is also an excellent example of irrational government foreign policy (If we define as rational to pursue policies that are beneficial to the countries they rule). The EU supported the US engineered coup and the sanctions against Russia even though this caused significant economic damage to EU countries.
I don't deny that you have a valid point. In fact, I very much hope you are correct, and I am wrong. I just look at the information I have from couple hundred sources and when I put them all together, I do NOT come up with an Iranian secret project like R. J. Mitchell Spitfire just before WW2 started. I just don't see any truthful indication of this. But again, I hope you are correct and I am totally wrong, for Iran's sake.
We cannot trust you and your so called IRIAF friends at least not more than IRIAF Deputy commander:





My friend, Iran has had many statements like these for years and years. In fact, these are the usual disinformation that every country uses. Do not rely on them too much. However, I hope these are correct and that I am wrong, for the sake of Iran's air force.
 

Mr Iran Eye

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I firmly maintain that the engine is in the process of testing and I maintain even more closed than underground, they have planes that they never showed and the Shafaq project is always in action with the same name or not.

Only time will tell if I'm wrong or not and not on wind-based analyzes. Iran has always said they have secret weapons that will come out in time of war and I believe that will hurt some people's ego here. It was I who spoke about the F-4 SM and I WAS RIGHT. I had said that through the Kowsar and the improvement of other fighter jets, they got into producing technology for their new heavy and semi-heavy fighter jets.

Last week, I put the news about the Kowsar and in the article it was said that technologies from this same Kowsar were used in other planes. It's very good to analyze the process of announcing Iran and you have to have some intuition. My intuition tells me now that Iran will soon announce another seaplane much advanced than the previous ones. Iran is always more advanced underground than what they present to us on the surface
 

Muhammed45

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Guys, anyone?
Is this true about Kowsar fighter jet?
"The fighter jet also comes with multiple hard-points under the fuselage section and wings that can be armed with a range of weapon systems to enhance its firepower. The jets are equipped with two J90 turbofan engines which have a maximum rated thrust of 5,000lb (2,268kg) each."

What I saw in Kowsar wasn't a turbofan but a turbojet engine.
 

TheImmortal

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Guys, anyone?
Is this true about Kowsar fighter jet?
"The fighter jet also comes with multiple hard-points under the fuselage section and wings that can be armed with a range of weapon systems to enhance its firepower. The jets are equipped with two J90 turbofan engines which have a maximum rated thrust of 5,000lb (2,268kg) each."

What I saw in Kowsar wasn't a turbofan but a turbojet engine.
Incorrect info. owj engine is a J-85 copy.
 

Stryker1982

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Incorrect info. owj engine is a J-85 copy.
I'm assuming this is the new Kowsar trainer? Owj x2 engines. Glad to see it being taken seriously. The seeds have to be planted somewhere. I just hope they continue to water it.

Iran does need aircraft with a 100% Iran-based supply chain that will prevent a Syria-like situation where their Airforce only flies if Russia decides to provide them with the parts/bombs.
 

TheImmortal

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I'm assuming this is the new Kowsar trainer? Owj x2 engines. Glad to see it being taken seriously. The seeds have to be planted somewhere. I just hope they continue to water it.

Iran does need aircraft with a 100% Iran-based supply chain that will prevent a Syria-like situation where their Airforce only flies if Russia decides to provide them with the parts/bombs.
iranian engineers have been keeping Syrian planes flying.
 

AmirPatriot

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This is a massive fallacy and goes against past precedent. Quite frankly it’s disappointing talk from such an knowledable member of the forum.

There is no Iranian arms contract worth pissing off the Israelis and US. Remember that they have pressure points on sensitive Russian interests as well. For years they dangled supposed “Iranian missile interceptors” in Europe as negotiating tactic to prevent Russian from helping Iran.

Past evidence is quite clear.....since 1990’s many “large” contracts were placed with a cash strapped and collapsed post Soviet Russia and most got cancelled. So when Russia was most desperate for cash they still screwed Iran.

Things are so bad that Iran did not trust Russia to refurbish its Kilo subs, it secretly feared that Russia (who was asking for the refurbishment to be done in Russia) would never return the subs back. It was one of the reasons Iran decided to do it themselves.

So again the “trust me this time is different bro”excuse is tired and worn out. A $5B or $10B contract won’t make Russia risk geopolitical fall out that could cost it 20,50, 100B in the long run. Billions don’t make Russians get out of bed, maybe Iranians, but not the Russians.

And the T-50 project only proves my point. India complained that Russia went against contract terms. Didn’t share ToT, repeatedly kept India in the dark, and kept raising the costs on India to fund the project. India eventually left out of frustration. That example is a prime reason where India that has ZERO problems getting weapons was still screwed by over by Russia.

Now imagine if Iran was involved in that? And that’s what your advocating? Wow seems like Shafagh project is a distant memory.

Relying on Russia for big ticket offensive items is what a fool would do.
Almost everything you just described is Russia pre-2014. Pre-Crimea. If you want to make a real point then don't lecture about the past, talk about the future, because you have to look 30 years into the future for fighter jet procurement. That's political, technological, doctrinal... everything. I might cover this all in a blog post later but for now I will keep it to political.

Everything that Russia wants from the west right now (sanctions removal and Nordstream) is Crimea-dependent, not Iran-related. And actually even Nordstream is getting waivers to repair US-Europe relations after Trump. Prior to 2014 Russia was focused on improving relations with the west which is why a lot of their actions came at a cost to Iran. Since 2014 Iran got S-300 and Russia entered the Syrian war despite Western protests.

The Biden admin seems to me more focused on confronting Russia and China rather than Iran. Instead of sitting on our hands and wasting time we should use these 8 years to revamp (or at least start revamping) our air force. I don't particularly care if this is done via Russia or China but my preference is Russia as I think the Flanker is better suited to Iran's needs than the J-10. Either of them are good in the right numbers.

I don't believe Iran's aviation industry is anywhere close to fielding an air superiority fighter.
 

TheImmortal

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Almost everything you just described is Russia pre-2014. Pre-Crimea. If you want to make a real point then don't lecture about the past, talk about the future
Thank god people like you don’t run Iran. Or else they would have never started a domestic arms manufacturing program because they believed the past doesn’t matter and that any day now some country will sell Iran something. Even the US screwed Iran, England screwed Iran (still hasn’t paid back the tank order deposit 40+ years later), Russia screwed Iran, and China screwed Iran.

But whoa let’s just forget everything because of Crimea. Lol again these Russian apologists grasp at straws. Will always find an “this time is different bro” excuse.

So far arms embargo has been off since October and we still haven’t heard a single rumbling about an arms deal with either Russia or China. We have an Iranian general tour Russia and look at attack helicopters....attack helicopters!

There are two obstacles one is the Russian obstacle and one is the IRGC obstacle. Neither of these groups has a strong desire to see an Iran with a potent Air Force.


major ticket items bought since 1990

kilo subs
T-72 tanks (screwed by Russia)
C-802 program (screwed by China)
Handfuls of various fighters (SU, Migs, Chinese fighters)
TOR-M1
S-300 (screwed by Russia only fulfilled due to arbitration ruling that Russia had to pay Iran $10B fine if it doesn’t enforce $800M contract).

Thats 30 years of arms history, maybe I forgot something like some Chinese ADs. But sure the past doesn’t matter because Crimea or Syria or Yemen or because Biden called Putin a dictator and hurt Putin’s feelings. This time it’s different...no for real... :rolleyes1:
 
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AmirPatriot

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Thank god people like you don’t run Iran. Or else they would have never started a domestic arms manufacturing program because they believed the past doesn’t matter and that any day now some country will sell Iran something. Even the US screwed Iran, England screwed Iran (still hasn’t paid back the tank order deposit 40+ years later), Russia screwed Iran, and China screwed Iran.

But whoa let’s just forget everything because of Crimea. Lol again these Russian apologists grasp at straws. Will always find an “this time is different bro” excuse.

So far arms embargo has been off since October and we still haven’t heard a single rumbling about an arms deal with either Russia or China. We have an Iranian general tour Russia and look at attack helicopters....attack helicopters!

There are two obstacles one is the Russian obstacle and one is the IRGC obstacle. Neither of these groups has a strong desire to see an Iran with a potent Air Force.


major ticket items bought since 1990

kilo subs
T-72 tanks (screwed by Russia)
C-802 program (screwed by China)
Handfuls of various fighters (SU, Migs, Chinese fighters)
TOR-M1
S-300 (screwed by Russia only fulfilled due to arbitration ruling that Russia had to pay Iran $10B fine if it doesn’t enforce $800M contract).

Thats 30 years of arms history, maybe I forgot something like some Chinese ADs. But sure the past doesn’t matter because Crimea or Syria or Yemen or because Biden called Putin a dictator and hurt Putin’s feelings. This time it’s different...no for real... :rolleyes1:
You are such an incredibly angry person.

Be realistic and stop putting words into my mouth. Iran's military development in the past 30-40 years has been admirable but don't pretend it happened out of thin air. Did Iran's vaunted BM force start off with precision guided MRBMs? No, it started with licence produced North Korean copies of the Scud-B. It took 30 years for Iran to get to this point. And Iran went through dozens of iterations of several designs.

Fighter aircraft development is probably the single most difficult thing a military industrial base can do. There are so many high technological and design requirements that it takes a decade for a superpower with decades of experience and effectively unlimited financial resources+institutional backing (none of which Iran has) just to complete development of a fighter jet, let alone field it in numbers.

Currently Iran's best effort is a modernisation of a 1950s design with little indication that proposals to go further are getting any serious backing.

So yes, I'm going to suggest buying Russian or Chinese jets because they can actually be delivered in numbers this decade. Iran can carry on its internal development - which would probably benefit technologically from inspecting foreign jets - in the meantime. To sit and wait for Iran's current air force to fall out of the sky on its own with no replacement is irresponsible.

As for the arms embargo, I think maybe Iran itself isn't pushing through yet because of financial pressure. Otherwise, there were certainly serious discussions in 2016 to the point that the defence minister visited Russia and was openly talking about Su-30s. But whatever, maybe you know better than him.
 

jauk

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You are such an incredibly angry person.

Be realistic and stop putting words into my mouth. Iran's military development in the past 30-40 years has been admirable but don't pretend it happened out of thin air. Did Iran's vaunted BM force start off with precision guided MRBMs? No, it started with licence produced North Korean copies of the Scud-B. It took 30 years for Iran to get to this point. And Iran went through dozens of iterations of several designs.

Fighter aircraft development is probably the single most difficult thing a military industrial base can do. There are so many high technological and design requirements that it takes a decade for a superpower with decades of experience and effectively unlimited financial resources+institutional backing (none of which Iran has) just to complete development of a fighter jet, let alone field it in numbers.

Currently Iran's best effort is a modernisation of a 1950s design with little indication that proposals to go further are getting any serious backing.

So yes, I'm going to suggest buying Russian or Chinese jets because they can actually be delivered in numbers this decade. Iran can carry on its internal development - which would probably benefit technologically from inspecting foreign jets - in the meantime. To sit and wait for Iran's current air force to fall out of the sky on its own with no replacement is irresponsible.

As for the arms embargo, I think maybe Iran itself isn't pushing through yet because of financial pressure. Otherwise, there were certainly serious discussions in 2016 to the point that the defence minister visited Russia and was openly talking about Su-30s. But whatever, maybe you know better than him.
Your emphasis on the 40+ years roots of Iranian technology is misplaced. If you're looking to the future then ignore that. Otherwise why stop there and not shift another 1000 years back Maybe two? @immortal is entirely correct (albeit sharp in tone). And, again, Iran will never purchase or be able to purchase an effective air force. That boat sailed 40+ years ago. That should be clear as day for you especially if you continue to emphasize 40+ years of history.
 

Stryker1982

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Your emphasis on the 40+ years roots of Iranian technology is misplaced. If you're looking to the future then ignore that. Otherwise why stop there and not shift another 1000 years back Maybe two? @immortal is entirely correct (albeit sharp in tone). And, again, Iran will never purchase or be able to purchase an effective air force. That boat sailed 40+ years ago. That should be clear as day for you especially if you continue to emphasize 40+ years of history.
After what they dealt with during the war, I think it has deterred Iran from buying anything foreign with relation to the airforce.

It was a miracle we managed to keep air superiority in Iran during the war. I think they all remember what happened and they do not want a repeat with the Russians and I perfectly understand that. We know it will happen again
 

AmirPatriot

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Your emphasis on the 40+ years roots of Iranian technology is misplaced. If you're looking to the future then ignore that. Otherwise why stop there and not shift another 1000 years back Maybe two? @immortal is entirely correct (albeit sharp in tone). And, again, Iran will never purchase or be able to purchase an effective air force. That boat sailed 40+ years ago. That should be clear as day for you especially if you continue to emphasize 40+ years of history.
My emphasis on the roots of Iranian military tech was to demonstrate that catching up to the rest of the world in military tech is not easy nor quick. Yes, Iran should work on its domestic arms industry. But that doesn't mean abstaining from purchasing foreign arms.

I'm starting to think why some people wanted the UN Arms Embargo lifted in the first place.

do not want a repeat with the Russians and I perfectly understand that
That's probably why they were asking for TOT back in 2016.
 

drmeson

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If anyone still thinks Iranian planners are still trying to build IRIAF conventionally, then they are fools. Considering three major factors:

1) Politics/Sanctions
2) Money for IRIAF from def budget
3) Changing dynamics of aerial warfare, roles of drones, non kinetic warfare.

It is safe to say that IRIAF will evolve as a heavily UCAV laden force in 2030s with probably 6-7 squadrons of 4+ generation fighters which will be procured (may be assembled in Iran) in late 2020s, may be Su-35S if Russia agrees.

IRIAF needs to be merged with IRGC-AF IMO.
 

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