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Ich

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So what is going to be Iran's first big acquisition when the arms embargo ends soon? Are we going to see the long-awaited large order of Su-30s or will it be something else?
Me is not sure cause after showing the new 700 turbofan there is a possibility that there are also bigger turbofans for fighterjets in production. So maybe only small order of SU-30/35, maybe 24-30.
 

TheImmortal

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So what is going to be Iran's first big acquisition when the arms embargo ends soon? Are we going to see the long-awaited large order of Su-30s or will it be something else?
Either SU-27/SU-30/SU-35 derivative which ever Russia sells Iran. This is assuming Russia doesn’t screw Iran over again and not deliver a signed contract.

There is talk that an unnamed country put a large 50+ order in for SU-35 to be delivered in 2021-2022. That country could very well be Iran (maybe India).

I also suspect Iran will go for 24-36 SU-57 or similar amount of J-31 in order to build a deterrent next gen fleet. Arab countries will likely be acquiring F-35 in next decade. Pakistan will likely acquire 5th gen fighter from China on top of their own program. Turkey will either deploy their own 5th gen fighter or will acquire F-35 depending on how relations with the West continue.

This will leave Iran vulnerable as all of its neighbors will potentially be flying 5th gen fighters in the next decade. Thus a stop gap is needed before Iranian domestic fighters Become a reality (2030 and beyond).

Not to mention the F-14 May be able to kept flying to 2030-2035, but other Iranian fighters are at the end of their life span. Thus Iran will need to overhaul the airforce even if it plans to build a domestic airforce in the future that will take decades to implement and in the meantime they need an airforce that can serve them.
 

TheImmortal

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Me is not sure cause after showing the new 700 turbofan there is a possibility that there are also bigger turbofans for fighterjets in production. So maybe only small order of SU-30/35, maybe 24-30.
There are bigger engines in production. But even if engine gets revealed in 2-3 years it will take 10-20 years for an Iranian fighter jet program to be established in large numbers.

Look at Mowj navy program, it was unveiled over a decade ago and even now they are still modifying the ship design and have only now begun pre-production of heavier warships. So it will take a long era of testing and modifications before an Iranian fighter jet is ready for mass production.

I think the best combo is a SU-30/35 + SU-57 fleet to power the Iranian airforce for next 25 years. That will give plenty of time for Iranian airforce to build their domestic projects.
 

Xerxes22

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Either SU-27/SU-30/SU-35 derivative which ever Russia sells Iran. This is assuming Russia doesn’t screw Iran over again and not deliver a signed contract.

There is talk that an unnamed country put a large 50+ order in for SU-35 to be delivered in 2021-2022. That country could very well be Iran (maybe India).

I also suspect Iran will go for 24-36 SU-57 or similar amount of J-31 in order to build a deterrent next gen fleet. Arab countries will likely be acquiring F-35 in next decade. Pakistan will likely acquire 5th gen fighter from China on top of their own program. Turkey will either deploy their own 5th gen fighter or will acquire F-35 depending on how relations with the West continue.

This will leave Iran vulnerable as all of its neighbors will potentially be flying 5th gen fighters in the next decade. Thus a stop gap is needed before Iranian domestic fighters Become a reality (2030 and beyond).

Not to mention the F-14 May be able to kept flying to 2030-2035, but other Iranian fighters are at the end of their life span. Thus Iran will need to overhaul the airforce even if it plans to build a domestic airforce in the future that will take decades to implement and in the meantime they need an airforce that can serve them.
Iran Definitely has an emergency situation in hand in regards to it's airforce. You made a valuable point about these countries soon acquiring 5th gen aircrafts. Iran has to have a feasible strategy in order to counter this situation.

Personally , I love the PAK FA T50/SU 57. If Iran can get their hands on these it will be an astronomic stride forward for the AF. I do think that the unnamed country is infavt Iran. Lets see what unfolds.
 

sahureka2

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There is talk that an unnamed country put a large 50+ order in for SU-35 to be delivered in 2021-2022. That country could very well be Iran (maybe India).
"rumors" are circulating. that Turkey is also interested in the SU-35 as an alternative to the F-35, but a SU-35 "T" version on which to have the possibility to install national components made also thanks to the knowledge gained during the participation in the program of the US aircraft
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/5366221.html
 

Xerxes22

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"rumors" are circulating. that Turkey is also interested in the SU-35 as an alternative to the F-35, but a SU-35 "T" version on which to have the possibility to install national components made also thanks to the knowledge gained during the participation in the program of the US aircraft
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/5366221.html
Yes but the SU 35 isnt stealth. So how wud that be an alternative to the F35 ? shudnt they go for SU 57 instead? or do they have their own stealth fighter in agenda?
 

Ich

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There are bigger engines in production. But even if engine gets revealed in 2-3 years it will take 10-20 years for an Iranian fighter jet program to be established in large numbers.

Look at Mowj navy program, it was unveiled over a decade ago and even now they are still modifying the ship design and have only now begun pre-production of heavier warships. So it will take a long era of testing and modifications before an Iranian fighter jet is ready for mass production.

I think the best combo is a SU-30/35 + SU-57 fleet to power the Iranian airforce for next 25 years. That will give plenty of time for Iranian airforce to build their domestic projects.
We had this point some days ago. Me do not go conform with the propagated time span of 10-20 years AFTER having a functional turbofan. 10-20 years was at times when the computer power wasnt that great as it is today. Today one can everything simulate in a supercomputer, even earth climate or the explosion of a hydrogen bomb in the antarctic. So the only point what is time spending is the quality of the production line. And here we see the the 700 turbofan. So we can assume that the quality of the production line for bigger turbofan could already be on a better level. Maybe not high enough, but sure not far away. Also the design of the air frame and the stress points at the structure could be simulated with a supercomputer.
 
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sha ah

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They have their own stealth program, called TF-X. It's being built by the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) in collaboration with BAE systems.

I'm not sure if this is a good idea in the long run for Turkey since the Saudi's are already dipping their feet into BAE. There's even talks of the Saudi's interested in purchasing shares of the company.

Not only that but unlike Russia/China, who mostly have a non interventionist foreign policy when it comes to most nations, a country like the UK is very much politically aligned and entrenched with various global factions.

This could easily lead to a situation where Turkey cannot acquire vital spare parts for their stealth fighter, much like how the Germans are refusing to sell Turkey spare parts for their Leopards and we all know where that has led to.

Yes but the SU 35 isnt stealth. So how wud that be an alternative to the F35 ? shudnt they go for SU 57 instead? or do they have their own stealth fighter in agenda?
 

TheImmortal

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We had this point some days ago. Me do not go conform with the propagated time span of 10-20 years AFTER having a functional turbofan. 10-20 years was at times when the computer power wasnt that great as it is today. Today one can everything simulate in a supercomputer, even earth climate or the explosion of a hydrogen bomb in the antarctic. So the only point what is time spending is the quality of the production line. And here we see the the 700 turbofan. So we can assume that the quality of the production line for bigger turbofan could already be on a better level. Maybe not high enough, but sure not far away. Also the design of the air frame and the stress points at the structure could be simulated with a supercomputer.
Sir please don’t say things like this. It is laughable.

US has the strongest super computers in the world, but look at the problems that emerged from F-22 and F-35 programs that took years to resolve. US has been making fighter jets since WW2.

So any Iranian fighter jet will have problems that will emerge that will need to be ironed out (see India Tejas as another example). Not to mention the supply chain and infrastructure that needs to be built to support a 200-300+ aircraft production line.

The costs to establishing such a program (infstructure, supply chain, personnel, raw materials, etc) could cost well over $50B to have the future architecture in place to manufacture large amounts of fighter jets. It’s not just cost of the program itself or the fighter jet cost, but cost of establishing the necessary infrastructure to be able to build large amounts of fighter jets.
 

Ich

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Sir please don’t say things like this. It is laughable.

US has the strongest super computers in the world, but look at the problems that emerged from F-22 and F-35 programs that took years to resolve. US has been making fighter jets since WW2.

So any Iranian fighter jet will have problems that will emerge that will need to be ironed out (see India Tejas as another example). Not to mention the supply chain and infrastructure that needs to be built to support a 200-300+ aircraft production line.

The costs to establishing such a program (infstructure, supply chain, personnel, raw materials, etc) could cost well over $50B to have the future architecture in place to manufacture large amounts of fighter jets. It’s not just cost of the program itself or the fighter jet cost, but cost of establishing the necessary infrastructure to be able to build large amounts of fighter jets.
Well, read your post again and then ask yourself:

How could it be that the US put nearly a trillion dollar into the development and purchase of f-22 and f-35 and still does not resolve some minor flaws?
 

sahureka2

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Yes but the SU 35 isnt stealth. So how wud that be an alternative to the F35 ? shudnt they go for SU 57 instead? or do they have their own stealth fighter in agenda?
Hypothesis acquisition 40 SU-35 "T" aircraft strategy to fill capability gap, waiting for the national TF-X aircraft
 

triangle

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Yes but the SU 35 isnt stealth. So how wud that be an alternative to the F35 ? shudnt they go for SU 57 instead? or do they have their own stealth fighter in agenda?
Hypothesis acquisition 40 SU-35 "T" aircraft strategy to fill capability gap, waiting for the national TF-X aircraft
Well according to the president of the Turkish defense industries, there will be no stop-gap fighter purchase, other than a possible F-35 purchase. Focus is on the TF-X and probably most probably an indigenous F-16 upgrade.
But then again, you never know happens and circumstances might change. IMO low chance of a Russian fighter being bought because of the bad political consequences with the S-400 purchase. They might go for the eurofighter or more F-16's if the F-35 is not available.

TBH, they should've gone for the F-35 as their last fighter and use this decade (2020-2030) to build a formidable missile arsenal with precision strike capability with various ranges and association infrastructure like Iran has done for the last 30 years. Turkey is very similar to Iran in terms of geography suitable for underground missile bases and the like. They might not built an arsenal as large as the Iranians because of the higher prices, but the quality and reliability will most probably be better than the Iranian ones. Higher reliability and quality means a higher Pk.
All of this would mean shelving the TF-X program and go for an F-35+indigenous air-to-air UCAV. 150 or so F-35 with 300-450 wingman UCAV's, with MIUS, Akinci's and the like + a huge ballistic missile arsenal is a very potent, balanced and diverse precision strike capability. And the gained technology of the ballistic missiles would translate to other fields like air-defense and a space program.
 

Readerdefence

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Hi so what’s the catch for russia & China to be head on with USA if Iran is not ready to bail out in terms of arms & ammunition which resulted in getting specific economic growth to Russians
I believe so Iran will definitely get their hands to whatever they can get from these two countries now recently uae been confirmed with F35 and been cleared from IsraelI to get them from USA may be a downgraded version from the Israeli point of view in this case Iran will be a strong candidate for 5th generation mostly from Russian Origin as Chinese might not sell their J20 to anyone at the moment one the most demanding item from China can be type 52C/D class frigates or 54 class
so if possible for some learned member to shed some light on my post will be appreciated
thank you
 

Shawnee

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Well according to the president of the Turkish defense industries, there will be no stop-gap fighter purchase, other than a possible F-35 purchase. Focus is on the TF-X and probably most probably an indigenous F-16 upgrade.
But then again, you never know happens and circumstances might change. IMO low chance of a Russian fighter being bought because of the bad political consequences with the S-400 purchase. They might go for the eurofighter or more F-16's if the F-35 is not available.

TBH, they should've gone for the F-35 as their last fighter and use this decade (2020-2030) to build a formidable missile arsenal with precision strike capability with various ranges and association infrastructure like Iran has done for the last 30 years. Turkey is very similar to Iran in terms of geography suitable for underground missile bases and the like. They might not built an arsenal as large as the Iranians because of the higher prices, but the quality and reliability will most probably be better than the Iranian ones. Higher reliability and quality means a higher Pk.
All of this would mean shelving the TF-X program and go for an F-35+indigenous air-to-air UCAV. 150 or so F-35 with 300-450 wingman UCAV's, with MIUS, Akinci's and the like + a huge ballistic missile arsenal is a very potent, balanced and diverse precision strike capability. And the gained technology of the ballistic missiles would translate to other fields like air-defense and a space program.
Looking at Abqaiq, it is very difficult to beat the Iranian reliability and accuracy in missiles. There is little room to improve. Note that some of missiles are solely decoy or for electronic warfare.

So far I have not seen a single footage of a Turkish missile beyond 300 km range. I am not even discussing accuracy here. All I have seen about Yildrim 600 has been words and no footage. Accuracy comes after reaching the range.

I believe in Qaher more than Yildrim 600. At least Qaher is visible.

Speaking of Turkish missiles without knowing their missiles and what was done is wrong. Words are not enough. Erdogan’s promise was to have an SLV by 2020. Never happened. Even not a test. You can’t have secret testing of missiles. The world is watching it.

Also Turkey has signed missile non proliferation treaty and is bound to 300 km. Missile tests are not secret.

Finally ToT has limitations. SK had a satellite launch with Russian ToT that reached nowhere. Turkey cannot do better than SK.
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