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VEVAK

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In the case of Iranian sanction, the situation is another. On the one hand, it’s better since acc to resolution 2231 of the UNSC in support of the JCPOA, the arms sanctions should be lifted automatically on October 18, 2020. But on the other hand, in order for the sanctions to be lifted, it's imperative that the JCPOA must survives until the fall of next year. Otherwise, even Russia and China will not be able to block the return of sanctions.
In 2015, the Americans specifically enshrined the tricky condition in the text of the agreement that if one of the sides of the agreement states that JCPOA was violated and raises this question in the UNSC, then all international sanctions will be returned automatically if the UNSCl doesn't vote against return of sanctions. And the United States for sure willn't allow this if it comes to voting in the UNSC since veto power, while the veto power of Russia and China here does not mean anything
Since the United States has withdrawn from the agreement, they themselves cannot raise this issue now, Russia and China of course will not do this, but France and the United Kingdom remain the sides and the United States is now putting pressure on them.

11. Decides, acting under Article 41 of the Charter of the United Nations, that, within 30 days of receiving a notification by a JCPOA participant State of an issue that the JCPOA participant State believes constitutes significant non-performance of commitments under the JCPOA, it shall vote on a draft resolution to continue in effect the terminations in paragraph 7 (a) of this resolution, decides further that if, within 10 days of the notification referred to above, no Member of the Security Council has submitted such a draft resolution for a vote, then the President of the Security Council shall submit such a draft resolution and put it to a vote within 30 days of the notification referred to above, and expresses its intention to take into account the views of the States involved in the issue and any opinion on the issue by the Advisory Board established in the JCPOA;
12. Decides, acting under Article 41 of the Charter of the United Nations, that, if the Security Council does not adopt a resolution under paragraph 11 to continue in effect the terminations in paragraph 7 (a), then effective midnight Greenwich Mean Time after the thirtieth day after the notification to the Security Council described in paragraph 11, all of the provisions of resolutions 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), and 1929 (2010) that have been terminated pursuant to paragraph 7 (a) shall apply in the same manner as they applied before the adoption of this resolution, and the measures contained in paragraphs 7, 8 and 16 to 20 of this resolution shall be terminated, unless the Security Council decides otherwise;

http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/2231

According to some rumors, Russia and China were against this point, but Rouhani really wanted to make a deal in 2015 ..
In short those sanctions can ONLY be removed if the U.S. agrees to their removal and the Trump Administration is NOT going to do that. Simply put Iran's Defense industry today is too independent and that makes it too big of a threat to the U.S. & EU weapons sales.

U.S. sells it's Humvee's for $200K- +$1 Million USD per unit
It's Javelin ATGM for $180,000 USD
It's RQ-7 & Scan Eagles go for anywhere between $800K-$3.5M
MQ-1's from $4M-$20Million USD

Iran currently may not be able to produce F-22's, F-35's, Apache's and a long list of other more complex US weapons systems but there is still a rather long list of weapon systems that Iran can produce and sell at a fraction of what the American's charge. And that's just what Iran can do today and the greatest threat to them would be what would happen 10-20 years after the sanctions are removed because that opens the door for Iran to get into joint Defense projects with countries like Russia, China, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan.... and if that happens countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt,... who currently spend over $100 Billion a year on American Weapons will most definitely look across their boarders and weak up and prefer to invest in Asian(continent) defense industries over the overpriced weapons they are currently paying for....

Today the Saudi's are outspending Russia and every country in Europe on weapons acquisition and yet they don't have a single Aircraft carrier or a single Helo Carrier or single +1,000 ton Submarine or a single subsonic or supersonic bomber or a single stealth aircraft or a viable space program,.... to show for it.
If Iran had matched what the Saudis have spent over the past decade alone today Iran's military would have built and would have been equipped with it's own Helo Carrier's, a fleet of Missile Cruisers, at fleet of +1,500 ton diesel subs, would have started a production line of a fighter platform superior to the F-15 with over 200 fighter jets produced so far + plans for a real 5th gen fighter in the works, Iran would have built it's own supersonic bomber,.... hell with that much money Iran today would have even paid for it's own orbital space station.... And I'm not trying to say Iran is somehow special because if it was Turkey or Pakistan or Poland or North Korea or South Africa or Brazil or Sweden..... who had spent that much money on their own defense industry it would have been the same.
 

Hassan Al-Somal

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Absolutely wrong !!

The Kowsar is made of a new new cell based on the F5. The Kowsar is a great spectacular success by Iran under high sanction. New cockpit, new radar, new injectable seat, new engine made by Iran and even more

From this great achievement, Iran can improve this aircraft in constant ways. The Iranian authorities have said that for 1 year, there has been spectacular progress on this aircraft.

Yes it remains a modern aircraft of combat support. It will quickly move from generation 4 to 4+ and 4++

For the same price, I like 7 Kowsar better than a Su 35

The real joke are your comments, not the plane itself

It can also carry Fakour-90 air-to-air missile, according to the reports that I've seen in the Internet. If it is true, with the data link that can communicate with radars on the ground, Kowsar is a potent fighter jet.
 

TheImmortal

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As a point of reference, the Gripen (similar weight class as F20, which itself is a derivative of f5), the older PS-05/A Mark 3 which was pulse Doppler radar, had a range of 120km. Mark 5 is an ASEA radar, but I couldn’t find any relevant spec on it. Highly likely that it’s far superior to the mark3.

Even if the range would be worse than super heavy fighters, it still means jack in defensive missions since the effective range is extended greatly by ground based radars through datalink.

EW is key. And I have strong reasons to believe that Iran has great card to play here (blink blink rq170 and global hawk take/shoot downs).
F-5 is not ment to be sent to fight air superiority fighters. It will get torched.


isnt this the same crap skeptics were saying about Bavar when comparing it to S300? but we know today Bavar is almost as good OR better than the S300.

It might look like an F5, but unless you believe like many on PDF who say Iranian upgrades are "fake"(which they arent) then you should probably lean on the side of caution and conclude that its better than it looks.

I will say this, Iranian weapons function much better than they "look".
Doubtful that Iran would be able to upgrade the F-5 past what Brazil has done with their F-5’s. So I would consider that the ceiling.

It can also carry Fakour-90 air-to-air missile, according to the reports that I've seen in the Internet. If it is true, with the data link that can communicate with radars on the ground, Kowsar is a potent fighter jet.
Kowsar also lights up like a Christmas tree on newer stealth detecting airborne radars that SU-35’s are being equipped with.

100 Iranian SU-35’s flying in home territory (Iran) with S-300, Bacar 373, Khordads, etc backing up will be challenging to any adversary.
 

TruthHurtz

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isnt this the same crap skeptics were saying about Bavar when comparing it to S300? but we know today Bavar is almost as good OR better than the S300.

It might look like an F5, but unless you believe like many on PDF who say Iranian upgrades are "fake"(which they arent) then you should probably lean on the side of caution and conclude that its better than it looks.

I will say this, Iranian weapons function much better than they "look".
SAM systems and fighter jets are two completely different species. There is no evidence that Kowsar is anything but an upgraded F-5, the "production line" seen in the unveiling video isn't indicative of anything because it doesn't show the process of the actual jet being manufactured from the ground up.
 

Mr Iran Eye

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It can also carry Fakour-90 air-to-air missile, according to the reports that I've seen in the Internet. If it is true, with the data link that can communicate with radars on the ground, Kowsar is a potent fighter jet.

Thank you ! it seems here that people do not know how to think, it's too hard. We can clearly see that they have made a new cell, a new cockpit and more. No country will show every stage of manufacturing in the details because you have to keep some secrets.

This is a very new rumor that people underestimate Iran. And I repeat that for 1 year, there have been spectacular advances on the plane, wait for more ...

And to say that an all-powerful Su-35 is, would be stronger than 7 Kowsar coming from all directions is a total delirium. And it is clear that the Kowsar will be equipped with new missile that will work with are new radar. The Kowsar becomes more vulnerable outside the country but to defend Iran with ground link as you say, the plane becomes powerful. at the tactical level, do not take it to the light
 

Sina-1

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F-5 is not ment to be sent to fight air superiority fighters. It will get torched
I did not mention f5 as an alternative. My post was regarding the radar system of jas39 Gripen which is fielded as a sukhoi killer in Sweden. However not alone, but together with multiple air and ground radar assets. Gripen is an interesting concept for Iran because it is the same weight class as f20 (which is based on f5).
Saab makes the case that they can overcome any adversary by relying on numbers. Stealthier craft is for example much easier to detect by illuminating it from various angles. By datalink communication both ground and air assets can then engage the threat even though an individual air asset on paper has an inferior avionics spec.


Doubtful that Iran would be able to upgrade the F-5 past what Brazil has done with their F-5’s. So I would consider that the ceiling.
Maybe not upgrade. But a derivative design is interesting.
100 Iranian SU-35’s flying in home territory (Iran) with S-300, Bacar 373, Khordads, etc backing up will be challenging to any adversary.
I would pick a self produced Gripen/f20 like concept in numbers of 1000-2000 any day of the week. Deadlier and more reliable.
 
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TheImmortal

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I did not mention f5 as an alternative. My post was regarding the radar system of jas39 Gripen which is fielded as a sukhoi killer in Sweden. However not alone, but together with multiple air and ground radar assets. Gripen is an interesting concept for Iran because it is the same weight class as f20 (which is based on f5).
Saab makes the case that they can overcome any adversary by relying on numbers. Stealthier craft is for example much easier to detect by illuminating it from various angles. By datalink communication both ground and air assets can then engage the threat even though an individual air asset on paper has an inferior avionics spec.



Maybe not upgrade. But a derivative design is interesting.

I would pick a self produced Gripen/f20 like concept in numbers of 1000-2000 any day of the week. Deadlier and more reliable.
If we are going to have a discussion please do not throw nonsense numbers like 1000-2000 aircraft.

Gripen
Range: 2,019 mi
Wingspan: 28′ 0″
Unit cost: 40,000,000–60,000,000 USD
Program cost: US$ 13.54 billion (2006)
Engine type: Turbofan
Manufacturers: Saab AB, BAE Systems

Even if we say fantasy wise, Iran could build this program at 50% cost of SaaB and 50% of cost per aircraft for procurement.....

To equip 1000 planes at cost of 20 million per aircraft (absurdly cheap) that’s 20 billion dollars PLUS r&d of let’s say 7-8 billion puts you at close to 30 Billion dollars without pilot training/maintenance expenses/infrastructure support which will kick it up to 40 billion dollars.

consider that Iran’s ANNUAL military budget is less than 20 billion dollars and the air force budget is less than half a billion.

Never mind that Iran can’t actually build such a plane as the Gripen is TWICE as fast as an F-5. Forget radar, armament, and titanium in this discussion.

Iran is better off securing SU-30 production license and engine license production and building its future planes off of that.
 

TruthHurtz

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If we are going to have a discussion please do not throw nonsense numbers like 1000-2000 aircraft.

Gripen
Range: 2,019 mi
Wingspan: 28′ 0″
Unit cost: 40,000,000–60,000,000 USD
Program cost: US$ 13.54 billion (2006)
Engine type: Turbofan
Manufacturers: Saab AB, BAE Systems

Even if we say fantasy wise, Iran could build this program at 50% cost of SaaB and 50% of cost per aircraft for procurement.....

To equip 1000 planes at cost of 20 million per aircraft (absurdly cheap) that’s 20 billion dollars PLUS r&d of let’s say 7-8 billion puts you at close to 30 Billion dollars without pilot training/maintenance expenses/infrastructure support which will kick it up to 40 billion dollars.

consider that Iran’s ANNUAL military budget is less than 20 billion dollars and the air force budget is less than half a billion.

Never mind that Iran can’t actually build such a plane as the Gripen is TWICE as fast as an F-5. Forget radar, armament, and titanium in this discussion.

Iran is better off securing SU-30 production license and engine license production and building its future planes off of that.
The dreaming and fantasies in this thread have indeed approached absurdity. Lot of numbers being thrown around the no thinking.
 

Sina-1

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If we are going to have a discussion please do not throw nonsense numbers like 1000-2000 aircraft.
Nonsense huh? Peace-time Sweden operates 200 gripens. A country with 1/10th of Irans population, in safe-heaven Europe, Sweden operates 200 and you think 1000-2000 is fantasy numbers for Iran with threats from literally all directions. Wow!

Unit cost: 40,000,000–60,000,000 USD
Hate to break it to you but production cost and price are totally different things. It does not cost SAAB to produce gripens at 60 000 000 USD. Far from it actually.
As a point of reference, the prices for the Patriot system's missiles are between 1-6 million USD EACH.
So do you think that Iranian A2A missiles cost 0.5-3 Million? Far from it.

For a near closed loop economy like Irans, the only thing which truly is expensive is new technology. That is the only thing which needs to be developed (time-consuming) or bought from abroad. However as long as close to 100% of a system/product is developed within the borders of Iran then the production cost is a fraction of what would be in an open market scenario. Low production costs in Iran is well proven by Irans small military budget.
 

yavar

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@yavar Its more than enough if Iran is on T-90 technology level (better russian version not export version)
events in Syria has shown that T-90 is a beast on the field and sufficient against NATO
.
we not buying any Tanks any way

@yavar
Even with sanctions lifting in 2020, I dont think Iran will get SU-35 technology, pressure from Israel will be to big..
we have to try ,
when it comes to engines we have tech of SU-35,
but to get to level design and characteristics, body infrastructure, avionic we have to get your hand on something good to be able to catch up fast
 

TruthHurtz

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Why not go for SU-57? Russia is literally going around offering TOT with no preconditions to potential buyers. Given the push for 5th gen fighters it makes sense that Iran could get ahead of the curve with a stealth fighter rather than a 4th gen stopgap.

Russia seems pretty desperate to see some export orders, so you could use this to your advantage during negotiations to get a larger share of TOT than what is offered upfront. Like manufacturing the air frame by itself and importing critical components from Russia (like engines, avionics etc).

Once that's done you could purchase rights to produce the air frame domestically like China did with their J-11 (SU-27 derivative) and focus all your efforts into developing the critical components you used to import from Russia.

We already know that Iran can make avionics, turbojets and ejection seats so the tech barrier shouldn't be too difficult to overcome.

This is a much better alternative than the ridiculous suggestions of some users. This can be done over the course of a decade at less than 10 billion, not too unreasonable given Iran's defence budget.
 

Sineva

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Why not go for SU-57? Russia is literally going around offering TOT with no preconditions to potential buyers. Given the push for 5th gen fighters it makes sense that Iran could get ahead of the curve with a stealth fighter rather than a 4th gen stopgap.

Russia seems pretty desperate to see some export orders, so you could use this to your advantage during negotiations to get a larger share of TOT than what is offered upfront. Like manufacturing the air frame by itself and importing critical components from Russia (like engines, avionics etc).

Once that's done you could purchase rights to produce the air frame domestically like China did with their J-11 (SU-27 derivative) and focus all your efforts into developing the critical components you used to import from Russia.

We already know that Iran can make avionics, turbojets and ejection seats so the tech barrier shouldn't be too difficult to overcome.

This is a much better alternative than the ridiculous suggestions of some users. This can be done over the course of a decade at less than 10 billion, not too unreasonable given Iran's defence budget.
The biggest problem in this regard is the unfortunate level of "reliable unreliability" of the russians,tho the cold war 2.0 that the west initiated over nato expansion does seem to offer some potential possibility of increased reliability vis a vis russia and iran,which sadly makes rouhani and zarifs failure to have the weapons embargo removed back in 2016 all the more tragic.Ultimately tho relying on the russians for after market support and backup ie spares/logistics is potentially still quite risky for iran under the circumstances which is why only complete license production makes any kind of sense and admittedly even that has risks.
I think there are really only a couple of viable options for iran,one would be complete license production of the su30 ie airframe,engines,avionics,weapons,every nut,bolt and fastener produced in iran.This would really only be a realistic proposal in the event that iran was going to build a lot of them tho,ie not just a few dozen only to be a replacement for the f14,but as the new standard multirole aircraft for the airforce doing the job of pretty much everything else except for the su24s.This would allow for the rationalization of the air fleet and the replacement of the existing mishmash of mig29,f1,f4,f5 etc...
Another option would be an indigenous iranian light fighter program along the lines of the fj17 or F-CK-1,tho this would require a considerable effort in terms of reengineering vital components like the RD-33/94 turbofan engine,the R-77 BVR missile and the indigenous development of systems such as digital fly by wire and PESA/AESA radars.The biggest problem here would be the airforce itself as its previous attempts at upgrades were pretty unsuccessful and it seems to prefer projects that may look or sound superficially impressive such as new build "improved" f5s or an airforce drone program,but the actual results were pretty disappointing.I`ve always wondered if the reasons for this was one of a lack of money and resources,a lack of trained personnel and project managers coupled with a lack of experience when it comes to successfully completing large projects or perhaps a culture of innate conservatism which is just unwilling to take risks and would instead prefer to exaggerate the scale and success of whatever projects are undertaken,such as the "new build F5s" which despite some basic improvements are still basically 1960s era guns and wvr only light fighters.I suspect its very likely a combination of all of the above sadly.
Another option may be to just wait for chinese engine technology to catch up to the west and russia and to seriously consider buying chinese 5th gen machines like the j20 or j31 in another decade or so,tho another option would be 4th gen machines such as the j10 or j11.Sadly tho these days the chinese seem to be taking the same "reliably unreliable" approach as the russians......bit of a pity that,oh well...
 

skyshadow

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well well well look who is back after couple of years, the same plane that had one RD-33 engine which could indicate Iran still wants to build it which again could indicate Iran has reverse engineered RD-33 engines. @TheImmortal



 

TheImmortal

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well well well look who is back after couple of years, the same plane that had one RD-33 engine which could indicate Iran still wants to build it which again could indicate Iran has reverse engineered RD-33 engines. @TheImmortal



You are assuming too much from a model. It could merely be a prop to demonstrate the Air Force.

Furthermore, that design made sense somewhat about 10-15 Years ago. Today it would be a waste of resources to build given that by the time assembly and critical mass is hit it would be well into 2030’s. Taking a 4th gen design into that time period is not smart. Fighters are developed for 15-20 years of service.

Better Iran focuses on developing a 5th/6th gen design even if it takes longer. Use foreign aircraft purchases as a stop gap and R&D for your eventual next gen domestic design.
 

sahureka2

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You are assuming too much from a model. It could merely be a prop to demonstrate the Air Force.

Furthermore, that design made sense somewhat about 10-15 Years ago. Today it would be a waste of resources to build given that by the time assembly and critical mass is hit it would be well into 2030’s. Taking a 4th gen design into that time period is not smart. Fighters are developed for 15-20 years of service.
Better Iran focuses on developing a 5th/6th gen design even if it takes longer. Use foreign aircraft purchases as a stop gap and R&D for your eventual next gen domestic design.
F-16 Introduction 17 August 1978 - 41 years in service and updated will fly to many air forces for many more years
 

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