• Sunday, January 26, 2020

Iran's demography problem

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by GWXP, Nov 9, 2019.

  1. GWXP

    GWXP FULL MEMBER

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    In 2050 Iran's population will be around 95mln people. While nearby Iraq will have a population of 83mln people.

    On average Iraqis will also be much younger than Iranians.

    While today Iran dominates Iraq, this will become a problem in the future. In the long run, with large population, Iraq can one more time turn into a threat to Iran.

    Iraq needs to start a government program to reduce fertility rate, because Iraqi economy is unable to satisfy the needs of this rapidly growing population. Reducing fertility rate in Iraq can give them a population between 50-60mln people by 2050.

    While Iran has already managed to increase fertility rate to nearly normal level of 2 birth per woman, Iran needs to increase fertility rate even further to grow its population to 110-120mln people by 2050.

    Your opinion on this matter?
     
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  2. GWXP

    GWXP FULL MEMBER

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  3. Angry Easterling

    Angry Easterling SENIOR MEMBER

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    racist
     
  4. GWXP

    GWXP FULL MEMBER

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    no racism, Iraq had a population of 16mln in 1980 and Iran had a population of 54mln. And yet Iraq invaded Iran and killed a million people.

    So Iran should be aware of potential threats arising from its Western borders in the long run.

    Iran's security can not afford a powerful Iraq one more time

    If Iran will not increase fertility rates, by 2050 it will become a country with the oldest population in the region

    Iran to have oldest population in region by 2050
    https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/440584/Iran-to-have-oldest-population-in-region-by-2050
     
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  5. mohsen

    mohsen SENIOR MEMBER

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    Man you made my day, best news in several days!
    Shiah are not a threat, but an opportunity, the same are pro-Iran Sunnis.

    Iran's population growth rate has sharply reduced. that 2 figure is fake and published recently by Zionists and their cooperatives in Rouhani's traitor government to justify their policies against Iran. actual number is 1.8 which means a negative population growth rate.

    UN figure in 2017 was 1.7, now during these years Iran suffered heavy economy pressure which affects fertility and growth rate directly, yet suddenly UN published the 2.15 figure for 2019! it's while another organization (IBRD) which still hasn't synced it's figures with Zionists has predicted 1.54 rate for 2020.

    It was an obvious manipulation of statistics with one single goal.

    آمارسازی‌های هدفمند صندوق جمعیت سازمان ملل درخصوص وضعیت جمعیتی ایران | خبرگزاری فارس
    خبرگزاری دامشجو - توطئه آماری علیه رشد جمعیت ایران
     
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  6. GWXP

    GWXP FULL MEMBER

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  7. lastofthepatriots

    lastofthepatriots SENIOR MEMBER

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    Population control sounds like playing god. Who is anyone to say who should be born and who shouldn’t. I don’t like it.
     
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  8. Mithridates

    Mithridates BANNED

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    we can't say them what they need to do, we can only talk about ourselves.
    the main obstacle preventing Iran for having positive fertility rate is obviously unemployment, you can't expect someone with zero income to manage himself, his wife and some children. other problems are just psychological, people think marriage and having children is an issue preventing them from personal progress, some believe it's not fair to give life to a child knowing that he/she will live in Iran with an unclear future.
     
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  9. Hack-Hook

    Hack-Hook ELITE MEMBER

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    Dear Mr. @mohsen I didn't expect this mistake from you
    It's how you calculate population growth
    Any number higher than 0 is population growth not decrease .my guess you have mistaken fertility rate with population growth rate .


    By the way you better than anybody else knew and understand problems of today iran from unemployment to water supply to rural/urban ration to education system to pullution to education to....
    How you suggest we increase population at higher rate ? Right now we retire workers at their prime (age 40-45 when they accumulated valuable experience that we must use) to make space for new generation .

    Here we must decide what we want a professional work force and army or overpopulated society and an inexperience unprofessional armed force which is perfect for playing the role of cannon fodder .

    Well you knew medicine is also like playing god who has the right to prevent death and disease.

    Iran has positive fertility rate as negative fertility rate have no meanings
    Fertility rate of 2 and above result in growth if you consider death rate equal to zero mean growth
    But as death rate is certainly more than zero I seriously suggest to aim for fertility rate above 2.

    By the way I guess you also is mistaking fertility rate by population growth rate.
     
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  10. QWECXZ

    QWECXZ FULL MEMBER

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    I think he was referring to fertility rate instead of population growth. Fertility rate is defined as the number of children born to women of a country in average while population growth is defined as the ratio you said. A fertility rate of 2 is usually taken as the replacement level because any number below that means that there won't be enough children to replace their parents. However, the replacement level is usually above 2 for most countries and differs country by country.

    I have seen a different definition of population growth as well that defines the growth rate is A(n)/A(n-1) where A(n) is the population at the n-th interval of measurement. In this case, anything above 1 is growth and anything below 1 is decay.
     
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  11. Hack-Hook

    Hack-Hook ELITE MEMBER

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  12. Battle of Waterloo

    Battle of Waterloo BANNED

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    Hardcore basijis generally want 150 million Iranians... But they don't think about how to provide jobs or transport or security for them.

    Iraq is a semi-failed state so imagine how bad their problems will be with 80m+ people! Right on Iran's doorstep, that kind of instability is not good for Iran.
     
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  13. mohsen

    mohsen SENIOR MEMBER

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    I referred to his figures which were fertility rate.
    And no, population growth rate has a different formula (subject of professional debate!)

    Actually, population growth rate has nothing to do with your today's conditions. a baby today wont take your job! though lots of people will loose their job if that baby isn't born!

    Future generations will define amount of your social welfare when you get old, so even if you are looking to your own interests, you should vote for a positive rate.

    A little drop in growth rate will compensate for lack of jobs (if our current generation can't create enough jobs till then, which honestly is unlikely), but current sharp drop means lots of empty positions in the future, which either has to be filled with immigrants, or through reducing the businesses which will be a bad news for you.

    --------------------------------

    It's worth mentioning, in a letter from health minister to supreme leader (published now), he admits that the 2.1 fertility rate was fake and after new studies they have came up with 1.84 figure.

    درباره نامه وزیر بهداشت به رهبر انقلاب/ نمکی به دستکاری در آمار جمعیتی صحه گذاشت | خبرگزاری فارس
     
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  14. PN2020

    PN2020 FULL MEMBER

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    Every successful country in the world has some sort of population control, without it countries would either become too overpopulated or underpopulated.

    As a country becomes more developed and the standard of living increases the population growth will decline. This graph sums it up pretty well:

    [​IMG]

    Take Pakistan for example, the country has a fertility rate of 3.48 and is in early stage 2. With no family planning people have as many children as they want, while at the same time the death rates are decreasing (due to improvements in medical care, sanitation etc), leading to an unsustainable population boom. This means the government will be unable to share its resources effectively as there are simply too many people, hence putting a greater strain on the economy.

    Japan on the other hand is very different with a fertility rate of only 1.44, well below the replacement level of 2.1. If this trend was to continue by 3000 the country would have only 500 people left.

    This is the importance of population control as you need a balance, an issue for many nations around the world.

    The problem for developed countries like Germany and the UK is how to prevent a natural decrease and instead raise the fertility rates to at least replacement level. However the solution these countries has come up with is to take in more migrants. This is all good but when the migrants are having more children than the natives, then a problem arises. This is when far-right groups and white nationalists start using the term ‘The Great Replacement’, where globalists, Muslims and Jews are all plotting together for a ‘white genocide’. These sort of beliefs fuel hatred leading to more and more attacks against non-whites, especially Muslims.

    In fact population control and planning is so important that even the fate of our species rests on it. Since the beginning of the 20th century our population has grown massively and it is only expected to continue. The question that arises from this however is if our resources can keep up, as if not we will have a problem...

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. QWECXZ

    QWECXZ FULL MEMBER

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    Although I agree with you, but I think the economic aspect of the problem is not that big a factor. In fact, international data demonstrate that poorer countries have higher fertility rates. Look at Africa for example.

    I think the main reason that Iran's fertility rate dropped so sharply is cultural. People started to value personal progress more than familial values and put individualism above societal norms. Meanwhile, a sharp increase in women's literacy rate and access to higher education are also responsible for this. After all, fertility rate depends on women. That aside, years of slogans like "fewer children better life", distributing free condoms, free vasectomies and tubectomies in 1990s played a huge role in dropping Iran's fertility rate. I remember when I was a child, there was a health center near our home and you could see the "fewer children better life" ads even on the exterior walls of the building and a sizable majority of people in Tehran believed (and continue to believe) that anything more than two children means bad prospects of good education, good job and other stuff in future for the child.
     
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