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Iranian Space program

aryobarzan

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I'm curious to see if they will introduce a new missile with this new engine, or keep it solely for the space program. As far as I'm aware, the Salman engine they showed before is only used for SLVs so far.

Let's look at history for a moment. The first nuclear (plutonium based) weapon was developed by the USA, and it's only delivery mode was aircraft
Later they miniaturized the nuclear system into a warhead, and constantly refined the payload/blast yield etc... over decades.
Then, working on reaching inter-continental ranges carrying a nuclear warhead and increasing diameter to carry more warheads.

Now today, theirs a certain country with 60% enrichment, very advanced centrifuges almost as capable as other countries on the edge of centrifuge tech, burried in deep mountain ranges (impossible to destroy conventionally) and road-mobile, solid-fuel ICBM capable.
They are reaching to the point we all know subliminally , and it is just a fingertip away. Instead of going through the progression like the Americans and Soviets did. It honestly looks like they are just getting all the pieces in first before. For then, a non-nuclear country would overnight become ICBM nuclear country. Of course, that is up to them to decide, doesn't mean they will actually develop a ground attack ICBM.

Pretty crazy stuff if you ask me. Whether or not a nuclear deal will happen will have big implications on the direction these guys take.
As our friend "TheImmortal" mentioned in a post the fact that this engine has a TVC indicates it is intended more as an ICBM since TVC for first stage SLV is not required
 

TheImmortal

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TVC on first stage SLV simply improves performance, higher Isp

Only way IRGC can get around SL’s 2000KM mandate as well as Western pressure is to label everything a SLV motor.

The real goal is military applications for ICBM and IRBMs. While IRGC values space, it doesn’t value space so much to spend considerable resources to develop high tech solid fuel SLV engines. Not to mention SLV engines make more sense to be cryogenic these days.

Solid fuel is clear dual use tech.

A 6,000-8,000 IRBM/ICBM with a 750kg HGV warhead allows Iran to strike major high value targets across most of the globe.

A stepping stone to the day Iran can use HGV’s to hit anywhere in the world (including conventionally) the continental USA.

Remember Hajizadeh said this Engine is very cost effective, which has traditionally been the main limitation to adoption of conventional equipped IRBM/ICBMs
 

yavar

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Just as a conspiracy theory
Don’t ask me how and why
only for a Iranian members

Watch it from 21:00
So called second stage of Ghaem project.


Just look at these new Images newly aired solid propellent , what is the diameter of new booster
So this can’t be the first stage of Ghaem project so where is the first stage of Goham project ??

let’s just say as a conspiracy theory that the images which was aired yesterday it could be a very old achievement which was shared and announced as last week test.

if they aired the image of the first stage Ghaem project Then maybe that static stand test Will be more covered up With the appellant.

Remember Martyr ( IRGC Gen Salkei ) he did design and build the first stage to the Ghamem booster, which till today the static test Images I’ve not been aired, the images are from 2011 which still not been aired,

 
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TheImmortal

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Just as a conspiracy theory
Don’t ask me how and why
only for a Iranian members

Watch it from 21:00
So called second stage of Ghaem project.


Just look at these new Images newly aired solid propellent , what is the diameter of new booster
So this can’t be the first stage of Ghaem project so where is the first stage of Goham project ??

let’s just say as a conspiracy theory that the images which was aired yesterday it could be a very old achievement which was shared and announced as last week test.

if they aired the image of the first stage Ghaem project Then maybe that static stand test Will be more covered up With the appellant.

Remember Martyr ( IRGC Gen Salkei ) he did design and build the first stage to the Ghamem booster, which till today the static test Images I’ve not been aired, the images are from 2011 which still not been aired,


Ghaem is not the only Iranian missile project being tested at Shahrud....And this engine can be enlarged and clustered. Very powerful for its diameter.

If NK missile program is anything to go by, Iran likely has 3-4+ long Range missile projects ongoing at the same time.

Likely 2 ICBM projects, 1-2 IRBMs, plus a HGV project for F-110, Sejill, and future ICBM/IRBM
 

SalarHaqq

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Only way IRGC can get around SL’s 2000KM mandate as well as Western pressure is to label everything a SLV motor.

Any strategic weapons research or development the IRGC is engaging in, it does so on direct orders of the Supreme Leader himself.

So to be precise, it's not that Sepah would want to get around a decree by the Leader, but rather that the official 2000 km limit and the IRGC's continued unveilings of dual use, potential ICBM technology are two facets of one and the same policy, which is being carried out in a concerted, thought out and perfectly harmonious manner by the mentioned parties. Because considering the specificities of Iran's geostrategic conditions, this is the most beneficial way forward.
 
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Stryker1982

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Only way IRGC can get around SL’s 2000KM mandate as well as Western pressure is to label everything a SLV motor.

The real goal is military applications for ICBM and IRBMs. While IRGC values space, it doesn’t value space so much to spend considerable resources to develop high tech solid fuel SLV engines. Not to mention SLV engines make more sense to be cryogenic these days.

Solid fuel is clear dual use tech.

A 6,000-8,000 IRBM/ICBM with a 750kg HGV warhead allows Iran to strike major high value targets across most of the globe.

A stepping stone to the day Iran can use HGV’s to hit anywhere in the world (including conventionally) the continental USA.

Remember Hajizadeh said this Engine is very cost effective, which has traditionally been the main limitation to adoption of conventional equipped IRBM/ICBMs
Tend to agree on this. Such heavy investment in solid fuel motors soley for an SLV use, while very useful is like hitting one bird with a stone rather than two.

New missile launches will happen this upcoming week. Looking forward to see if they will be unveiling a new missile.
 

Stryker1982

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Any strategic weapons research or development the IRGC is engaging in, it does so on direct orders of the Supreme Leader himself.

So to be precise, it's not that Sepah would want to get around a decree by the Leader, but much rather that the official 2000 km limit and the IRGC's continued unveilings of dual use, potential ICBM technology are two sides of one and the same policy, which is being carried out in a concerted, thought out and perfectly harmonious manner by the mentioned parties. Because considering the specificities of Iran's geostrategic conditions, this is the best way forward.

I would Imagine the Supreme Leader would receive counsel from the top guys who are "in the know" about the progress aerospace industry. Certainly he is aware that this limit has been surpassed theoretically a few years ago, but due to his particular mandate, and probably for political reasons. Their has not been a formal unveiling of an IRBM, even though we know they are already there.

Do you think one day this limit will be removed when they are ready(?)
They have demonstrated the needed pieces & potential for a compact solid fuel (probably two-stage), TEL- capable IRBM that can be integrated with a MaRV or future HGV that can deliver a Qiam-like payload. Ground breaking.
 

SalarHaqq

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I would Imagine the Supreme Leader would receive counsel from the top guys who are "in the know" about the progress aerospace industry. Certainly he is aware that this limit has been surpassed theoretically a few years ago

Not just passively aware of it, but the cap was exceeded precisely because the Supreme Leader decided it should be, and gave corresponding instructions to the IRGC and other entities involved in the ballistic missile program. Even before work on the Khorramshahr had begun, ayatollah Khamenei was informed of the fact that its range would surpass 2000 km if armed with a 700 to 1000 kg warhead, and he chose to go ahead with it.

The Islamic Republic is not an autocracy nor a dictatorship, contrary to what the propaganda of Iran's enemies and of the exiled opposition is trying to suggest. But in this specific area of competence, namely strategic and/or game changing weapons R&D, the Supreme Leader enjoys discretionary decision-making powers, in addition to being the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

So everything we see unveiled by Sepah in the realm of longer ranged ballistic missiles, is a clear manifestation of seyyed Khamenei's policy guidelines and will.

Do you think one day this limit will be removed when they are ready(?)

In my opinion, this will depend on two factors:

1) Evolution of the geopolitical context. Give us one or two more US presidents like Bush jr. and Trump exhibiting the same hawksish, threatening attitudes towards Iran, and we will probably reach that point.

2) Evolution of the technocological-military balance of power. If the enemy introduces some new, game-changing weapons capable of credibly reducing Iran's deterrence power, then again we might see Iran respond by extending voluntary limits on ballistic missile range.

They have demonstrated the needed pieces & potential for a compact solid fuel (probably two-stage), TEL- capable IRBM that can be integrated with a MaRV or future HGV that can deliver a Qiam-like payload. Ground breaking.

It's as huge as it is subtle, indeed. And the decision was made first and foremost by the Supreme Leader.

When it comes to HGV's, I believe these will be officially unveiled and inducted into service before any ICBM's, and will be mounted on existing or future variant MRBM's for starters.
 
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Stryker1982

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Just as a conspiracy theory
Don’t ask me how and why
only for a Iranian members

Watch it from 21:00
So called second stage of Ghaem project.


Just look at these new Images newly aired solid propellent , what is the diameter of new booster
So this can’t be the first stage of Ghaem project so where is the first stage of Goham project ??

let’s just say as a conspiracy theory that the images which was aired yesterday it could be a very old achievement which was shared and announced as last week test.

if they aired the image of the first stage Ghaem project Then maybe that static stand test Will be more covered up With the appellant.

Remember Martyr ( IRGC Gen Salkei ) he did design and build the first stage to the Ghamem booster, which till today the static test Images I’ve not been aired, the images are from 2011 which still not been aired,

What happened with the Ghaem project?
 

sha ah

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Modified Khorramshahr can strike London easily. Hwasong-10 / BM-25, which Khorramshah missile is based upon has a range of 3000-4000 KM with a warhead of 650 KG - 1250 KG. So let's say 500-650 KG warhead. From Iran's border London is approx 3770 KM. So it can be done.

No doubt Iran already has all the blueprints and know how from collaborating with and funding North Korea's nuclear/missile programs.

North Korea's economy is in extremely rough shape. If nothing else, even if Iran did not have any know how, I'm sure the North Koreans would transfer the technology along with a few missiles for a decent price.

That's all of EU right there. The next step is to produce a missile with a range of 10,000 KM, which can target Washington DC. Again Iran likely has the capability to produce such a missile, it's just a matter of politics.

I'm not sure if I'm taking this out of context because the same article states that it could take Iran 2-5 years. Remember this is someones opinion on the subject, nothing more.

"Iran has the technical and industrial wherewithal, and likely already possesses key hardware required develop and field an ICBM if a decision is made to do so."

"Iran should not be able to reliably strike Western Europe before 2022 or the United States before 2025—at the earliest."


Only way IRGC can get around SL’s 2000KM mandate as well as Western pressure is to label everything a SLV motor.

The real goal is military applications for ICBM and IRBMs. While IRGC values space, it doesn’t value space so much to spend considerable resources to develop high tech solid fuel SLV engines. Not to mention SLV engines make more sense to be cryogenic these days.

Solid fuel is clear dual use tech.

A 6,000-8,000 IRBM/ICBM with a 750kg HGV warhead allows Iran to strike major high value targets across most of the globe.

A stepping stone to the day Iran can use HGV’s to hit anywhere in the world (including conventionally) the continental USA.

Remember Hajizadeh said this Engine is very cost effective, which has traditionally been the main limitation to adoption of conventional equipped IRBM/ICBMs

Jan 11 - Daily Cases.png
 
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Stryker1982

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Should we expect a satellite launch tonight?
There was a NOTAM from Jan-18 to Jan-20.

Could be a sat launch could be something else.

They could've done it already too, but they have not announced it publicly. I guess we'll see soon enough. Noor was launched shortly after the testing of Salman engine.
 

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