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Arian

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Although both @SalarHaqq and @thetutle raise some valid points, the chance of a military confrontation between Iran and the United States, or any of her allies, is negligible in any foreseeable future, as long as they know that the Islamic Republic will not be armed with unconventional capabilities.

Both Iran and the United States have reached a position that they understand each other's capabilities and limits and they have learned to coexist as enemies. Trump did push those limits, but he never attacked Iran even when he had the best excuse for doing so (the attack on the US military base could've been used as a casus belli by the United States lawfully). I believe the US foreign policy on Iran, which as I have always said is completely bi-partisan, is containment unless it will become absolutely necessary to react militarily.

The US and her allies in the region are benefiting from the sanctions on Iran. Why would they want a military confrontation that will make them lose hundreds of billions of dollars in less than a month while they're earning tens of billions of dollars through sanctions on Iran? No fool would do that.
 

Shawnee

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Ok, Ive read this thing carefully.

The whole thing is sound logically, were it not for this critical mistaken assumption.

"Once such a capability is reached, the nuclear option of the opponent is neutralized due to two realities:
  • A nuclear counter-force strike will not disable Irans counter-strike capability and what survives is sufficient to cause a scale of damage that can't be tolerated by the opponent
  • The scale of damage due to point-strike capability on critical and high value targets, reaches a level high enough, to be compared to what was previously only possible with nuclear weapons or at least complete air dominance."

The above is a mistaken assumption upon which this whole thesis is based. Thus the theses becomes irrelevant and nonsensical.

Firstly, I don't believe that anyone will use a nuclear weapon against Iran, simply because it is not necessary. Irans destruction can easily be achieved by conventional means. Only by the US, not Israel.

Bunkers can be penetrated and destroyed. US knows where they are, and where the missile exit points are. Every inch of Iran is mapped by high resolution satellite and AI scanning is used to determine where the exit points of the missiles are. Further, US has sophisticated radar that can detect holes in the ground (missile shafts and caverns for missile storage). High explosives can be lowered into the shafts and detonated. Drones or robots can enter the segregated areas and detonate their explosives where the missiles are stored. You've seen Azerbaijani drones enter bunkers and detonate. well multiply that capability 100 times and you have USA drone capability. Not to mention DARPA two legged robots that can perform backflips. Well America probably has tens of thousands of them armed and ready to take out any such complex.


So those missile cities are no secret to anyone, they know when your scientists go for a walk. they killed him in the car without killing his wife. Apparently, by a facial recognition remote controlled gun. so those missiles has a limited shelf life.

But, lets assume just for arguments sake, that some of those missiles will go off and strike lets say Israel.
And you have, lets say 20 of these tunnels. Lets say more. lets say 40 of them. Thats 30,000 missiles safely stored that can hit Israel with a 1 tonne warhead.

I think Iran has more than 30,000 such missiles. probably 80,000. But lets say 30,000 are able to be launched successfully and with precision. that's 30 thousand hits on en enemy with a significant one tonne warhead.

Now,
An Israeli F15, can practically carry 8 tonnes of bombs. So, one F15 carries the equivalent of 8 such missiles.
Israel has 83 such aircraft. so in one sortie Israel can deliver 664 such missiles. Using just its F15 Aircraft.

It also has 25 F35, which can also carry the same amount (8 tonnes), or 200 such missiles.

It has some F16's and each can carry 2 such missiles. and it has 224 of them. So that's 448 such missiles.

So Israel, using its airforce can deliver 1,312 such one tonne missiles in one single flyover. then they will go back that same morning and load up again. and drop another 1,313 missiles.

A one tonne guided bomb is not as sophicitated as an Iranian missile and can be carried in a Toyota hilux, and a fighter plane can land on a freeway and be refilled there and repaired there. so these planes can fly several sorties per day. Lets say. they can deliver 3,939, 1 tonne bombs per day.

In 7 and a half days, Israel has dropped the equivalent of 30,000 missiles that Iran will be able to drop on Israel. But after Iran fires its missiles. that's the end. It will destroy factories and buildings. bridges and refineries and airbases (but not necessarily the planes), and it will kill a lot of people. Lets say each missile kills 5 people. they will be in shelters. that's 150,000 people.

Thats not the end of the world. Jews lost 150,000 per week in WW2 at times, and they are still going. Iran will lose more as it has less shelters and may lose 300,000 people in the first 7 days that it gets hit by these 30,000 bombs.

But the Iranian missiles are exhausted and Isreal is just getting started. every 7 days of bombing will claim 300,000 lives in Iran. lets say for 2 months. that's 2.5 million casualties in 2 months. But those planes can keep going. for 6 months, 1 year 2 years, while America replenishes the Israeli airforce as it is losing its fighters, mainly to mechanical faults. 3 sorties per day takes its toll.

So don't think for a moment Israel needs nukes to cause nuke like damage to Iran. Losing 150,000 people to Iran would be a distastes to them, but they can afford it. Israel is mainly middle eastern Jews and Russians who a probably not even real Jews. Its worth it to eliminate Iran.

This is damage Israel could conceivably do to Iran. and Damage Iran could conceivably to Israel. Now, not many western analysts would claim Iran could launch 30,000 missiles, but I say they could.

And Israel losing 150,000 people is much better than having to live with a nuclear Iran that could kill 8 million Israelis in 15 minutes, using only about 20 nuclear warheads and 5 missiles. Don't you think?

So I don't know how such missiles could even come close to replacing a nuclear deterrent?
Your first mistake is the missiles hitting Israel come from Lebanon and Syria. Iran can hit Israel with mortar and ATGM and even hand grenades!
Israel does not need underground missiles launched from Iran. Iran has geographic depth.

Your second mistake:
When Israeli infrastructures and bases are hit, they cannot keep maintaining their fleet. The fleet needs maintenance and safe harbor.
This is while striking a missile base is not possible. Yes missiles are more expensive but safe after the first strike.

Third:
There are secondary and tertiary venting and launching outlets.
Also launching pot can be a while deep crevice or valley not a small pit. It can be nuclear proof.
Think about the launch pit beyond your assumption of a small hole for a minute.

Fourth
Assuming you know the launch pits based on radar images and intelligence. Remember the intelligence on Iraqi WMD.

Fifth:
Intelligence failure is bilateral. Yes Iran had a failure that led to the assassination.
Yet remember, Yemenis hit Jeddah during the clandestine meeting of MBS and Bibi. What a clandestine meeting? No activity from any AD? One single missile hitting the target!!
Who is the greater sin?

Sixth:
Missiles don’t come just from launch pits and under the mountains. There are plenty of them on mobile trucks, underwater silos and under the earth.

Seventh:
If Dimona is hit, Israel is half gone. Same happens if the ammonia and chemical factories are hit.

Eighth:‌
Who will lose more when everyone in the region reach 0-0-0? Who has more to lose? More investment?
..................
Last but not least:
We had a deal with the Turks not to show up in each other sections. You made your own forum/hub and left the forum.
Just to make new IDs and show up under new flags. I can even tell which member you are.

Previously we had user @triangle who claimed to be Italian and showed up only in the Iranian forum. Guess where he is now with the same ID but with Turkish flag. Turkish forum!!!
There are 10 members in that forum and one of them is @triangle.

@PDF @waz @WebMaster
 
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RΛIDEN

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Iran claims US may be responsible for nuke chief’s assassination as it arrests ‘terrorists’ over attack


IRAN has claimed the US may have been behind the "AI-machine gun" assassination of its nuclear weapons mastermind - as it announced it had arrested "terrorist" suspects.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a senior official in Iran's nuclear programme, was shot 13 times while driving on a road to the east of capital Tehran.

Earlier this week Iran said Fakhrizadeh was assassinated by an Israeli death squad with a machine gun that "zoomed in" on his face using artificial intelligence.

Now it claims to have arrested suspects they allege were involved in the sophisticated hit job on November 27 and claimed it was US-backed.

Iranian official Hossein Amir Abdollahian told Al-Alam TV he was unable to share the details of who they were for security reasons, but vowed they would not escape justice for the killing.

He said: "Some of the individuals involved in the execution of this assassination have been identified by our security apparatuses and even arrested.

"Were the Zionists (Israel) able to do this alone and without the cooperation of, for example, the American (intelligence) service or another service?

"They certainly could not do that."

Iran has given contradictory details of Fakhrizadeh’s death in the daytime ambush on his car on a highway near the capital Tehran.

'A.I CONTROLLED MACHINE GUN'
A senior Revolutionary Guards commander has said the killing was carried out remotely with artificial intelligence and a machine gun equipped with a "satellite-controlled smart system".

Speaking to the regime-linked Mehr news agency, Ali Fadavi, deputy commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said: "The automatic weapon installed in the pickup was also equipped with a smart satellite system that zoomed into Fakhrizadeh’s face and used artificial intelligence."

He added that the gun "focused only on martyr Fakhrizadeh’s face in a way that his wife, despite being only 25cm away, was not shot".

There were no "terrorists" at the scene, he said, and that the gun was being "controlled online".

Witnesses earlier told state television that a truck had exploded before a group of gunmen opened fire on Fakhrizadeh’s car.

Experts and officials told Reuters last week that Fakhrizadeh’s killing exposed security gaps that suggest Iran’s security forces may have been infiltrated and that the Islamic Republic is vulnerable to further attacks.




Fakhrizadeh is reportedly the fifth nuclear scientist working with the Iranian regime to have been assassinated since 2010.

Following Fakhrizadeh's death, protesters in Iran burned pictures of President Donald Trump and President-elect Joe Biden.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the regime's first priority would now be "definitive punishment" for the scientist's killers.


 

Oldman1

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Iran claims US may be responsible for nuke chief’s assassination as it arrests ‘terrorists’ over attack


IRAN has claimed the US may have been behind the "AI-machine gun" assassination of its nuclear weapons mastermind - as it announced it had arrested "terrorist" suspects.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a senior official in Iran's nuclear programme, was shot 13 times while driving on a road to the east of capital Tehran.

Earlier this week Iran said Fakhrizadeh was assassinated by an Israeli death squad with a machine gun that "zoomed in" on his face using artificial intelligence.

Now it claims to have arrested suspects they allege were involved in the sophisticated hit job on November 27 and claimed it was US-backed.

Iranian official Hossein Amir Abdollahian told Al-Alam TV he was unable to share the details of who they were for security reasons, but vowed they would not escape justice for the killing.

He said: "Some of the individuals involved in the execution of this assassination have been identified by our security apparatuses and even arrested.

"Were the Zionists (Israel) able to do this alone and without the cooperation of, for example, the American (intelligence) service or another service?

"They certainly could not do that."

Iran has given contradictory details of Fakhrizadeh’s death in the daytime ambush on his car on a highway near the capital Tehran.

'A.I CONTROLLED MACHINE GUN'
A senior Revolutionary Guards commander has said the killing was carried out remotely with artificial intelligence and a machine gun equipped with a "satellite-controlled smart system".

Speaking to the regime-linked Mehr news agency, Ali Fadavi, deputy commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said: "The automatic weapon installed in the pickup was also equipped with a smart satellite system that zoomed into Fakhrizadeh’s face and used artificial intelligence."

He added that the gun "focused only on martyr Fakhrizadeh’s face in a way that his wife, despite being only 25cm away, was not shot".

There were no "terrorists" at the scene, he said, and that the gun was being "controlled online".

Witnesses earlier told state television that a truck had exploded before a group of gunmen opened fire on Fakhrizadeh’s car.

Experts and officials told Reuters last week that Fakhrizadeh’s killing exposed security gaps that suggest Iran’s security forces may have been infiltrated and that the Islamic Republic is vulnerable to further attacks.




Fakhrizadeh is reportedly the fifth nuclear scientist working with the Iranian regime to have been assassinated since 2010.

Following Fakhrizadeh's death, protesters in Iran burned pictures of President Donald Trump and President-elect Joe Biden.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the regime's first priority would now be "definitive punishment" for the scientist's killers.


May be responsible? AI machine gun? How about showing such proof like the remains of the AI machine gun. Even in pieces.
 

RΛIDEN

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May be responsible? AI machine gun? How about showing such proof like the remains of the AI machine gun. Even in pieces.
Sattelite controlled AI machine gun is somewhat news in itself for me. There is more to the news than mere speculation.
What I think is happening at this moment is that Iran is gathering info and putting all the pieces together and along the way, found traces of potential US/CIA involvement alongside Mossad in architecting Fakhrizadeh's assassination.
 

yavar

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bit of history and evidence in written form so people understand when was IRGC Gen. Dr Haj Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and what was top IRGC commanders thinking in 1980s and where it got started

old video

letter of IRGC Chief to leadership for sustaining war ( Iraq Baath imposed war 1980s ) 18:30 Expelling the United States from the Persian Gulf and region / 21:50 military operations and planning / 23:27 The military equipment & weapons required, 25:05 laser and nuclear, 26:39 nuclear
 
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