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aryobarzan

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Thanks for your thoughts. Note, your premise resides on Iran not having a nuclear strike capability. I'm personally confident they do and have had for at least a decade--maybe as far back as early to mid '90s and post jangeh moghadas. The execution must've started in parallel the moment the first plan was drawn for the various civilian nuclear fuel supply chain efforts. Almost certainly zeere bayraghe bakhshhaye veezheye goonagoone sepah. Everything ranging from ostensible tech know-how, industrial and scientific base to geopolitical actions/counteractions by various parties make this undeniable. The question to me is the quantity and radius of that reach mostly which you alluded to.
You are welcome mate!...Yes as you mentioned it is a possibility that Iran is indeed already a Nuclear power but I have tried to base my assessment on the public information only. And that possibility as you mentioned bring me to the following conclusion:

Two of Iran's "Main" and "secondary targets" namely the "US middle east bases" and "Banana" Arabs of Persian Gulf and their oil supply are losing their importance . As a stated aim of Iran and if successful, US will be leaving West Asia and abandon the bases all around Iran (Basically Iran shooting herself on the foot by losing those targets!).In addition oil based economy of the world is slowly moving away from oil and as such the importance of Arab oil to the world economy also losing its luster....That will leave "israel" as the only "valuable" target for Iran and this will make Iranian defensive strategy with much less deterrent.

World is a dynamic place and a country such as Iran with powerful enemies should be flexible enough to define a new defensive posture towards the upcoming events . I hope the great Persian thinkers of Iran have taken all this into account long time ago and Iran's strategic plans are not what we read in open publications.
 

jauk

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You are welcome mate!...Yes as you mentioned it is a possibility that Iran is indeed already a Nuclear power but I have tried to base my assessment on the public information only. And that possibility as you mentioned bring me to the following conclusion:

Two of Iran's "Main" and "secondary targets" namely the "US middle east bases" and "Banana" Arabs of Persian Gulf and their oil supply are losing their importance . As a stated aim of Iran and if successful, US will be leaving West Asia and abandon the bases all around Iran (Basically Iran shooting herself on the foot by losing those targets!).In addition oil based economy of the world is slowly moving away from oil and as such the importance of Arab oil to the world economy also losing its luster....That will leave "israel" as the only "valuable" target for Iran and this will make Iranian defensive strategy with much less deterrent.

World is a dynamic place and a country such as Iran with powerful enemies should be flexible enough to define a new defensive posture towards the upcoming events . I hope the great Persian thinkers of Iran have taken all this into account long time ago and Iran's strategic plans are not what we read in open publications.
...which brings us back to nuclear capable missiles, quantity, and radius...
 
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Blue In Green

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Simple, brother: my response could be summarized in one word, namely Isra"el".

The US regime will never risk considerable damage to the zionist entity, given that successive US administrations have systematically been "Isa"el"-firsters" for the past several decades. The American political class and their regime are entirely under the thumb of international zionism.

Therefore efficient deterrence against Tel Aviv is just as good as deterrence against Washington. The US is every bit as sensitive - and arguably even more so, to large scale desctruction on Isra"el"i soil as it is to large scale destruction on US mainland.

And when it comes to the zionist entity, given three characteristics, massive conventional offensive capability is preferable to a nuclear one:

1) Even if nukes were used merely as a deterrent, Iran would not want an Islamic holy place like Masjed Al-Aqsa, as well as native Palestinians (Muslim, Christian, Jewish) to fall into the crosshairs of such a deterrent.

2) Isra"el" is tiny, its population small, its critical infrastructure limited in numbers. Conventional power can do the trick when the target list is so reduced.

3) Being a settler state and considering its relatively high level of development - inversely proportional to the population's patience and willingness to take casualties, its entire security calculus and in effect its viability as a functioning polity hinge upon its capability to convey an image of invincibility. If that public perception is seriously, palpably scarred or undermined, it'll be over, literally. For then, settlers from the west along with their capital will flee Palestine in the blink of an eye. Again, no nukes needed to finish off the viability of the zionist project.

So Iran's conventional deterrence is much, much more potent in keeping at bay the US and far more responsive to the challenge and threat Washington poses to Iran than meets the eye, due to the peculiarity and overwhelming weight of the Isra"el" factor in our equation.
SalarHaqq, I just wanted to say that all your posts have been nothing short of well thought-out, highly detailed, adequately elucidated comments on various topics with good insight and opinions on matters ranging from weapons doctrine, to geo-politics, to regional power struggles and so on. You really add a much needed sense of well educated opinion/analysis on subjects that often don't get enough expanded discourse on them especially when taking things into a more holistic perspective.

I would like to sincerely thank you for all you contributions here!!
 

skyshadow

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Iran's Defence Minister Hatami said on live TV tonight that Tehran would sell arms only to countries that "won't misuse them" and use it for defence purposes. "Unlike America, we wouldn't do just about everything to make money," he added.



breaking news: Iran is negotiation for its first arm expert and have been confirmed by defense ministry


He said Iran would sell arms to countries that America won't sell weapons to. He said earlier that Tehran's started negotiations with potential buyers.



Iran secretary of Defense: We have a plan to buy and sell weapons / We have negotiated with different countries to buy and export, but surely our exports will be wider.


 
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Stryker1982

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For sure we won't be selling anything like Fateh-110's to countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan. Nor do I think we will be selling anything to either countries anyways as to avoid exacerbating the problem there. Azerbaijan would be a good sell as they'd love to have some Fateh-110's or 313's to counter Armenia's Iskanders with greater force but their anti-Iran stance would make such a sale impossible.
 

TheImmortal

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For sure we won't be selling anything like Fateh-110's to countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan. Nor do I think we will be selling anything to either countries anyways as to avoid exacerbating the problem there. Azerbaijan would be a good sell as they'd love to have some Fateh-110's or 313's to counter Armenia's Iskanders with greater force but their anti-Iran stance would make such a sale impossible.
If Iran sells F-110 to Azerbaijan it will turn over and let Israeli engineers inspect it in order to tune their own air defense systems against the more capable brother, Haji Qassem missile.
 
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SalarHaqq

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SalarHaqq, I just wanted to say that all your posts have been nothing short of well thought-out, highly detailed, adequately elucidated comments on various topics with good insight and opinions on matters ranging from weapons doctrine, to geo-politics, to regional power struggles and so on. You really add a much needed sense of well educated opinion/analysis on subjects that often don't get enough expanded discourse on them especially when taking things into a more holistic perspective.

I would like to sincerely thank you for all you contributions here!!
Thanks for these words. Glad you found interest in my contributions.

If I had only one advice to leave for younger users: read more books, starting with classical references (whether in physical or digital form) and spend less time on "social media". You will not regret it.
 

skyshadow

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why would Iran show this missile ( looks a lot like Hormuz ASBM ) in Air defense section with all the other air defense systems ?

1603236924269.png
 

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