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TheImmortal

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Do you seriously think that they care about Turkish or Saudi enrichment activities? Well, they don't. Do you see the IAEA requesting Saudi Arabia or Turkey for clarifications every single session they held? No. Iran was put under pressure for doing much less than what Saudi Arabia is doing now. Do you see UNSC resolutions against Turkey's missile program? No.Don't you see how the Chinese are equipping Saudis with game changing ballistic missiles like DF-21?

They don't need justifications. They impose what they want because they can. As simple as that.
1) neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey have an enrichment program that suddenly got revealed after decade under construction.

2) neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey have a had nuclear weapons program (any rumors outside of financing Pakistan weapons program is wild conjecture at this point).

So what do you want the IAEA to question exactly? Something that hasn’t yet occurred? If the West snaps it’s fingers Turkey and Saudi Arabia can be put under same sanctions as Iran if the West feels it’s interests are being threatened by either country.

DF-21 is not game changing missile. It is missile program from the 1960’s.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are not considered threats to Western order. even the Shah was sold the F-14 which was the equivalent of the F-22 being sold to another country today (not technology wise, but rarity of the arms deal). Iran was the only country approved to ever be able to purchase the F-14. How come? Because it was a banana power under the Shah. West wasn’t worried about arms in the hands of an uneducated workers pool.

I will say that Turkey is much more independent than Saudi Arabia ever will be. The House of Saud is filled with so many spies and Western agents that at a snap of a finger they would cut off MBS’ head when given the order. Nothing happens in Saudi Arabia without the West knowing. It’s what happens when you sell your sovereignty for protection.

So I don’t even consider Saudi Arabia a threat. Any Military build up (Nuclear, missile,etc) that happens is because it is allowed to happen. You forget that the Shah was ordering several nuclear power plants from the West way back in the 70’s. He planned to become a nuclear power covertly. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have finally reached the point With the West where Shah was 50 years ago!

If puppets get out of line A color revolution can easily be engineered by the West if need be. Sanctions can destroy Turkey or Saudi Arabia if need be. Indeed you see what a small degree of sanctions did to the Turkish Lira. Now imagine an embargo by the US.

Turkey is a lot more unique. It is NATOs largest army and it was able to get substantial ToT via many arms deals, licenses, and being part of NATO allowed it access to latest technology (they even build parts for the F-35 project). Add in a robust economic growth since the 90’s and the recent discovery of 350b units of natural gas in the Black Sea and Turkey has a lot more independence than people give credit for. Russia would love to win Turkey over because as I said earlier it supplies NATOs largest army. If Turkey leaves NATO, then NATO ground forces are severely depleted in case of war.

Even though Turkey is a lot more independent than Saudi Arabia, it is tied to West both economically and militarily. Thus if it tries to de couple it will be extremely risky because as you saw in Turkish history there are many fifth columns and thus a coup can always be engineered. Erdogan is popular so long as Turkish people prosper. A few sanctions here and a few sanctions there and you will see how quickly the public will get tired of him. In fact you already seeing his party weaken.
 

triangle

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Some interesting comment about the recent live double-firing exercise of DF-26 and DF-21D in the South China Sea at the Chinese internet. Each of the AShBM does employ its own probe module, launched to get around the re-entry radio blackout due to plasma sheath, a smart engineering feat.

美帝这次又丢脸了,数数数错了,战时这是决不能原谅的 2020-08-29
反航母弹的套路,与对地弹打发不一样。出大气层先放探测舱段,为弹头最后砸向目标提供修正数据,结果被美帝看成是一个弹头了。这也不能怪美帝,没玩过这类弹,当然不懂套路,这次完整的演给他看看,省的有疑虑。

This time the US observation made a mistake again and counted wrongly

The routine of anti-carrier missile is different from that of ground bombs. The probe module was first released from the atmosphere, providing updated data for the warhead's final impact on the target, and this outcome was mistakenly deemed as a warhead itself by the US observers. Cannot really blame them since they have not dealt with this kind of missile. Of course they did not fully understand the routine, this complete performance will be shown to them to remove the doubts.

Damn, China must be very confident to reveal this trick. It's really clever, like diabolically, fiendishly clever to have the warhead bus chuck up what is essentially a temporary mini-targeting satellite. It's a solution that solves a lot of problems with AShBMs... I just can't get over how effective and elegant it is!

I think another important feature this test revealed is strike simultaneity. It's important for a strike package arriving along different directions to reach the target at the same time to maximize load on the defenders - this test must also have surely demonstrated that.

I can't help but connect this test to the escalation on the Indian border. Now that China has sufficiently frightened and deterred the US (and confirm this through espionage), the field is clear to escalate on other fronts and resolve those disputes favourably.

Looks like China is deploying mini-satellites in AShBMs to overcome signal disruption during reentry. Provides guidance updates to the warheads. Perhaps the only solution for targeting updates for MR+ exoatmospheric (ASh)BMs during reentry.

Iran still lacks an ISR capability to detect and track a carrier at these 1000+km ranges and it also probably lacks bus technology. All this could be achievable by 2030(+) IMO.
 
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PeeD

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Iran will probably first go for high flying SAR equipped Simrogh/RQ-170 drones in future for stand-off surface vessel detection.

Looks like China is deploying mini-satellites in AShBMs to overcome signal disruption during reentry.
From where you got this? Chinese AshBMs are not fast enough for orbital velocity. You probably mean a suborbital "satellite" but that would be quite an effort, given that the MaRV can safely use its radar seeker in SAR mode when outside the atmosphere to detect and discriminate.
 

sha ah

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In regards to Iran, the Iranian government brought the sanctions upon themselves by constantly yelling "death to America" Like Obama said, "death to America doesn't produce jobs for Iran" In any case what's done is done.

Saudi's have a small number of missiles (30x DF-3 IRBM and a few dozen DF-21 MRBM ), and about a dozen launchers.

There DF-3 and DF-21 missiles both have large warheads but the DF-3 missiles, they're not precise, although who knows there's a good chance they've upgraded them since the purchase in the late 80's. The DF-21 missiles are more precise but it depends on which version the Saudi's acquired, their accuracy ranges from 700-10m CEP depending on the variant.

However one thing to keep in mind is that the Saudi's have never launched their missiles. In any case Iran has thousand of missiles with pin point accuracy and now hypersonic missiles. In the missile department neither Saudi nor Turkey come close to Iran

The Saudi economy is not doing very well because of the on going war with Yemen and the recent oil wars which the Saudi's initiated with Russia. Covid-19 also plays a factor here

The Turkish economy is not doing well at all. The lack of tourism isn't helping either. Remember in 2005, 1 USD was worth 1 MILLION Lira. Then they took off 6 zeros. For a while 1 USD was worth 1.2 Lira around there. Now it's 1 USD = 7+ Lira.

Erdogan is desperate and looking for a way out of the economic rut. He's trying to lay claim to southern Cyrprus's natural gas and other gas fields which are in international waters.

The US is on the verge of imposing sanctions over the S-400. Many US senators, bi partisan, are determined to do it. The EU is also looking to impose sanctions over Turkey's recent belligerent behavior. The fact that Turkey is starting a nuclear program and now producing missiles that can reach Europe, is not going to help their case.





1) neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey have an enrichment program that suddenly got revealed after decade under construction.

2) neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey have a had nuclear weapons program (any rumors outside of financing Pakistan weapons program is wild conjecture at this point).

So what do you want the IAEA to question exactly? Something that hasn’t yet occurred? If the West snaps it’s fingers Turkey and Saudi Arabia can be put under same sanctions as Iran if the West feels it’s interests are being threatened by either country.

DF-21 is not game changing missile. It is missile program from the 1960’s.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are not considered threats to Western order. even the Shah was sold the F-14 which was the equivalent of the F-22 being sold to another country today (not technology wise, but rarity of the arms deal). Iran was the only country approved to ever be able to purchase the F-14. How come? Because it was a banana power under the Shah. West wasn’t worried about arms in the hands of an uneducated workers pool.

I will say that Turkey is much more independent than Saudi Arabia ever will be. The House of Saud is filled with so many spies and Western agents that at a snap of a finger they would cut off MBS’ head when given the order. Nothing happens in Saudi Arabia without the West knowing. It’s what happens when you sell your sovereignty for protection.

So I don’t even consider Saudi Arabia a threat. Any Military build up (Nuclear, missile,etc) that happens is because it is allowed to happen. You forget that the Shah was ordering several nuclear power plants from the West way back in the 70’s. He planned to become a nuclear power covertly. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have finally reached the point With the West where Shah was 50 years ago!

If puppets get out of line A color revolution can easily be engineered by the West if need be. Sanctions can destroy Turkey or Saudi Arabia if need be. Indeed you see what a small degree of sanctions did to the Turkish Lira. Now imagine an embargo by the US.

Turkey is a lot more unique. It is NATOs largest army and it was able to get substantial ToT via many arms deals, licenses, and being part of NATO allowed it access to latest technology (they even build parts for the F-35 project). Add in a robust economic growth since the 90’s and the recent discovery of 350b units of natural gas in the Black Sea and Turkey has a lot more independence than people give credit for. Russia would love to win Turkey over because as I said earlier it supplies NATOs largest army. If Turkey leaves NATO, then NATO ground forces are severely depleted in case of war.

Even though Turkey is a lot more independent than Saudi Arabia, it is tied to West both economically and militarily. Thus if it tries to de couple it will be extremely risky because as you saw in Turkish history there are many fifth columns and thus a coup can always be engineered. Erdogan is popular so long as Turkish people prosper. A few sanctions here and a few sanctions there and you will see how quickly the public will get tired of him. In fact you already seeing his party weaken.
 

triangle

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From where you got this? Chinese AshBMs are not fast enough for orbital velocity. You probably mean a suborbital "satellite" but that would be quite an effort, given that the MaRV can safely use its radar seeker in SAR mode when outside the atmosphere to detect and discriminate.
That is the impression I got from the comments I quoted. A mini satellite that acts as a temporary relay station for the AShBM warhead. Also, how does one get around the heat stresses of reentry and terminal phase while using a non-metallic, non ceramic and rf transparent nosecone?
 

triangle

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In regards to Iran, the Iranian government brought the sanctions upon themselves by constantly yelling "death to America" Like Obama said, "death to America doesn't produce jobs for Iran" In any case what's done is done.
Offtopic, but shouting 'death to America' is just one part of the 'resistance path' Iran has chosen. It is this resistance ideology that prevents two things in Iran:

1. Preventing an economic boom generated by dealings with the West, that would embolden and strengthen popular support for the reformist camp and threaten the principalists.
2. Preventing the use of this economic boom to threaten with sanctions by the West if Iran does not obey the wishes of the West. Carrot and stick method.

If Iran fails in this, then two scenario's follow: After Khamenei there will be no SL anymore through 'democratic' and relatively 'peaceful' means instigated by the reformist camp or a Syria scenario wherein Iran gets torn into pieces and thus does not constitute a threat to the west anymore.

It might be possible that Iran has found a different way. The 25 year economic and strategic engagement with China which doesn't care about 'democracy' and 'human rights' but does care about 'stability' and 'harmony'

Full on economic engagement with the West brings a big chance of ideological suicide for Iran, but not if it chooses full economic engagement with China and the wider Eurasia.
 

PeeD

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That is the impression I got from the comments I quoted. A mini satellite that acts as a temporary relay station for the AShBM warhead. Also, how does one get around the heat stresses of reentry and terminal phase while using a non-metallic, non ceramic and rf transparent nosecone?
Up to DF-26 range the ceramic radome solutions of the Chinese seems to be sufficient. The MaRV slows down sufficiently in upper layers to be slow enough to make the ceramic radome survive.

A faster suborbitale "sat" may be necessary for longer range and faster weapons.
 

sha ah

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If Iranians didn't yell "death to America" there still would have been sanctions from the US because of Israel, however other nations would have been less likely to cooperate with those sanctions since the chants make Iran appear to be aggressive and belligerent. Iran hasn't attacked any nation in 300 years but image / present impressions are everything.

As funny as this sounds, everything happens for a reason and in the long run you could argue that the recent sanctions will greatly benefit Iran. For example, Russia refused to provide the S-300 to Iran, therefore Iran invested in its own industry and has made massive leaps in air defense technology. As they say necessity is the mother of invention.

At the same time because Iran is no longer able to sell as much oil as it would like, it has forced Iran's economy to wean off of oil dependence and focus more on internal development and industry. Meanwhile many gulf Arab states are completely dependent on oil sales and they're pumping out as much as humanly possible.

The price of oil has fallen recently and the world is slowly shifting towards newer, cleaner forms of renewable energy. At the same time the oil isn't going to last forever and the way things are going, when the gulf Arabs finally do run out one day, Iran will still have lots of energy reserves remaining for its internal consumption and for export.

Iran's economy is set to grow in 2 years regardless. The deal with China can be beneficial however only time will tell whether it will work out in Iran's favor. Right now the Iranian government are just overjoyed to have defeated US efforts at the UN to extend the UN weapons embargo.

Next time if Iran signs any deal with the west or any nation, the benefits must be guaranteed, otherwise it's pointless.

Chinese do indeed believe in human rights. However their idea of human rights is people having access to food, medicine and vital necessities in life.

Offtopic, but shouting 'death to America' is just one part of the 'resistance path' Iran has chosen. It is this resistance ideology that prevents two things in Iran:

1. Preventing an economic boom that would embolden and strengthen popular support for the reformist camp and threaten the principalists.
2. Preventing the use of this economic boom to threaten with sanctions by the West if Iran does not obey the wishes of the West. Carrot and stick method.

If Iran fails in this, then two scenario's follow: After Khamenei there will be no SL anymore through 'democratic' and relatively 'peaceful' means instigated by the reformist camp or a Syria scenario wherein Iran gets torn into pieces and thus does not constitute a threat to the west anymore.

It might be possible that Iran has found a different way. The 25 year economic and strategic engagement with China which doesn't care about 'democracy' and 'human rights' but does care about 'stability' and 'harmony'

Full on economic engagement with the West brings a big chance of ideological suicide for Iran, but not if it chooses full economic engagement with China and the wider Eurasia.
 

triangle

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Interesting as I searched on Mehr, Tasnim and IRNA and found only a partial photo of that stand which cropped out that radar radome.


1599138394458.png

1599138394458.png

Edit: Is that epoxy resin in those cans and bottles?
 
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Mithridates

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i wish there was some object nearby for reference and comparison. to my eyes this seeker dome looks really huge:

1599311682365.png


is it for a new cruise missile?? or maybe that anti ballistic missile system works with IR seeker?? :unsure::unsure:
 

triangle

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Would it be suspicious if a foreigner would visit such a public military exhibition and proceeds to take an up-close photo of every item in that exhibition?

*I'm asking for a friend
 

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