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Iranian Missiles | News and Discussions

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by The SiLent crY, Jan 3, 2013.

  1. Mithridates

    Mithridates FULL MEMBER

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    I think one part of their issue is Iranian upgrade package for unguided rockets. that would potentially turn Hezbollah 150 k rockets to strategic assets. but about the part that we are arming ansar Allah with long range pin point missiles we should wait.
     
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  2. skyshadow

    skyshadow SENIOR MEMBER

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal SENIOR MEMBER

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    His career is in jeopardy amid all the corruption scandals. He is pulling out his Iran bogeyman card again.

    Whenever Israel senses weakeness they go quiet, whenever you hear them speaking aloud it’s propaganda.
     
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  4. Surenas

    Surenas SENIOR MEMBER

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    Nah.

    I do believe that Israel's current intelligence assesment, based on credible indicators, is that Iran has made a firm and strategic decision to no longer cope with Israeli attacks on its assets in the region. The cruise- and drone attacks on those Saudi facilities really changed the balance of power in the region, and the practical proof of Iran's precision-missile/drone capabilities stunned and shocked pretty much every actor in the Middle East.

    The Saudis and Emiratis paralyzed, especially after the US outright refused to stand in front of them against Iran, which led them to quickly approach Iran for negotiations. The United States on its own experimented with switching its CENTCOM command and control centre from Qatar to South Carolina, as the new reality kicked in. And Israel now has made changes to its regional policy as well. Their claim that Iran has adopted a new regional posture is correct, and they are rightfully panicking at the moment.

    Read this interview with one of their analysts:

    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/270569

    And this one with the head of the research division in Israel's IDF military intelligence:

    https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/09/26/iran-could-fire-cruise-missiles-at-israel-from-iraq/

    Israel is realizing the strategic nightmare they are getting in.

    At this point we really need to ask the question whether Iran has purposefully deceived its enemies, because if it did, then Iran has played this one beautifully. Try to grasp the situation. Iran's enemies, especially Israel and Saudi, invested billions of dollars in air defense systems to prevent Iran's ballistic missiles from ever reaching them. Israel with its Arrow 3 and the Saudis with their imported Patriot systems. And while Iran let them believe that it was strategically investing in its ballistic missile capabilities, it covertly worked on its cruise- and drone capabilities under the radar that are more precise and stealthy than ever.

    It explains why Iran regularly boosted about its ballistic missiles, while being overall quiet about its cruise missiles and suicide drones. It appears now that this was all intentional.

    So now Iran's enemies are coping with the new reality that they extremely vulnerable. That they blindly invested in one defense sector while Iran secretly developed another one. It explains why Israel's politicians and military officials are ringing the alarm bells, claiming that they quickly need to increase their defense budget with billions of shekels to counter the new threat. They have been caught with their pants down. Iran outplayed them all.

    It will take them years to develop and operate new weaponry that is able to counter this capability. This means that Iran has the upper hand in the region for the coming years. Welcome to the new strategic reality.
     
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  5. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal SENIOR MEMBER

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    If Iran strikes Israel, Israeli defense doctrine requires they strike back Harder. That is why they have been able to be so successful deterring the Arabs so long.

    Any Iran attack on Israel would have far more costs than benefits. I am sure Iran as pragmatic as it is would not view this in the lens of worthwhile.

    Meanwhile it was Iran that violated the unwritten red lines of Israel by entrenching itself in Syria. If Israel decided to entrench itself in Azerbaijan and then start building military bases and then start putting precision BMs there, do you think Iran would sit idly by?

    It’s like a frog in a pot allowing itself to be boiled to death by someone who slowly turns up the temperature.

    That is the reason why Iran hasn’t retaliated up till now.
     
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  6. Surenas

    Surenas SENIOR MEMBER

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    Because the Arabs never fielded similar weaponry as Iran does right now. They manage to deter the Arabs for so long because the Arabs lacked capabilities to hit rear areas in Israel. Notwithstanding the widely unreliable and imprecise SCUD missiles they have had, and never knew how to use effectively.

    Israel is the active player in this whole ordeal. Not Iran. And while Iran is pragmatic, Israel is so too. It appears that it has already accepted the new balance in the region.

    Red lines that Iran never adhered to, and still doesn't. So if Tehran made the strategic decision to entrench itself in Syria, it was expected that at one point it wouldn't accept any violations against it. And it seems like that moment has arrived.

    I would disagree. Iran's unwillingness to retaliate were never doctrine-related or because it accepted self-defined red lines of its enemies. It probably didn't retaliate because it assessed the time was not right and that the regional situation was still unclear or not in its favours. Perhaps even because a certain faction within Iran's power circles were more caution in their approach than the new players in power atm.

    Remember Iran's more aggressive posture in the region ever since the summer coincided with a shuffle in the top ranks of its military:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-...e-irgc-force-weeks-after-terror-blacklisting/
     
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  7. Surenas

    Surenas SENIOR MEMBER

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    Israeli newspaper Haaretz, leftist and usually highly critical of Netanyahu, is mentioning this now as well:

    Iranian Threat to Israel Is Real, Even if It Serves Netanyahu’s Interests

    "The prime minister speaks in closed forums in almost apocalyptic terms about the possible confrontation with Iran. It seems Netanyahu is relying on, among other things, intelligence assessments that the Iranians decided to establish a new balance of deterrence by which it will respond to any further Israeli attack against their bases and arms convoys on the northern front. It is of course possible that Netanyahu’s legal and political troubles are influencing his assessments, but it’s hard to ignore everything. The military, particularly the air force, remains on high alert. Anyone living near an air force base has noticed this development in recent weeks."

    https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east...-if-it-serves-netanyahu-s-interests-1.8056353
     
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  8. Surenas

    Surenas SENIOR MEMBER

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    More:

    All air defense systems on alert amid Iran attack fears — general

    Israeli Air Force chief Amikam Norkin on Wednesday said the military’s multi-tiered network of air defense systems were “on alert” amid a general threat of attack by Iran.

    In recent weeks, the military has begun to believe that Tehran intends to eventually retaliate against Israel’s regular airstrikes against its forces and proxies in the region.

    The Israel Defense Forces believes this could take the form of a large-scale attack involving cruise missiles and attack drones, similar to the strike on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco petroleum facility that was attributed to Iran.

    Earlier this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran intends to attack Israel from Yemen, which may make intercepting such a strike more difficult as the IDF’s intermediate and long-range air defenses are better positioned to shoot down incoming attacks from Israel’s north, rather than from the south.

    “Even as we speak, Arrow, Patriot, David’s Sling and Iron Dome batteries are on alert,” Norkin said Wednesday night at a graduation ceremony for air defense officers.

    The air defense chief was referring to each of the military’s air defense systems, from the Arrow and Patriot systems, which are designed to destroy incoming long-range missiles and aircraft, to the mid-range David’s Sling, and the Iron Dome system, which can shoot down short-range rockets and small drones.

    “The challenge of air defense has become more complicated. Joining the threat of missiles and rockets are now attack drones and cruise missiles,” he said.

    Unlike ballistic missiles, which usually fly through a high arc on the way to the target, cruise missiles and drones fly at low altitude, making them harder to detect and intercept.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/air-defense-batteries-being-put-on-alert-amid-iranian-attack-fears/
     
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  9. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal SENIOR MEMBER

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    If Iran is trying to attack Israel it would likely be under the shroud of plausible deniability so that the final actor could either be Iran/SAA/militant group.

    However, Israel by going on and alerting the entire world is effectively trying to BLOCK Iran by attacking by removing the plausible deniability card. Thus any attack would automatically be attributed to Iran. Israel is hoping this forces Iran to forgo a large scale attack at a time when it is internationally isolated.
     
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  10. Surenas

    Surenas SENIOR MEMBER

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    The 'war between wars', the name the Israelis gave to their campaign against Iranian entrenchment in the region, is ending according to generally well-informed Israeli journalist Ben Caspit. This is a pivotal moment in modern Iranian history guys. Iran has reached a kind of balance with its regional enemies in its favours that is unprecented and ground-breaking. Those drone-and cruise missile attacks against those Saudi oil facilities truly changed everything.

    And my assessment that Israel made a strategic misjudgement, as a consequence of Iranian deception, by completely focussing on countering its ballistic missiles capabilities, while Iran covertly worked on developing extremely accurate and stealthy cruise missiles and attack drones, is confirmed imo in his column.

    --------------------------------------------------

    Israel’s dilemma over its ‘war between wars’

    Almost three years have passed since the onset of the deployment of what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) nicknamed “Mabam,” a Hebrew acronym for "the campaign between the wars," or "war between the wars." The goals of the campaign were well defined and precise: to prevent Iran from entrenching itself in the Syrian space and to stop Hezbollah from strengthening itself via Iranian resources. At the top of the list was the “guided precision missile project.” At the beginning, Israel was extremely careful not to refer to this campaign openly. But as time went on, Israeli officials — from the air force commander to the chief of staff to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — began to brag about the number of assaults attributed to Israel in the Syrian space, and afterward in Iraqi territory as well.

    As of this point in time, it seems that this campaign between the wars is dying down; its time has passed. Reports of mysterious assaults against weapons convoys or infrastructure facilities identified with Iran have almost totally disappeared. This doesn’t mean that such an attack is impossible; almost certainly, sporadic attacks of this type will still appear here and there, but the chart does not lie: According to all the signs, the campaign’s era that we have known since 2016 is coming to an end. Unfortunately, there is no chance that peace will reign instead. All the sides need to hope that the campaign between the wars will not be replaced by a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.

    “The ‘campaign between the wars’ policy has reached the end of the road,” a former high-ranking Israeli security source told Al-Monitor this week, on condition of anonymity. “There are several cumulative reasons for this: First, the Iranians have moved their activities from Syria to Lebanon. Israel hasn’t attacked Lebanon for more than 13 years now. Second, the messages sent by Russia have become problematic for Israel. Third, Iranian self-confidence has grown due to American passivity and to Trump’s hasty abandonment of the region. Israel understands that this campaign can only descend into war, and it is unclear if there will be someone in Jerusalem who would make such a decision now.”

    Yet other high-placed sources disagree with this assessment, especially among the highest echelons of Blue and White. According to political sources, the former chiefs of staff in the party leadership (Benny Gantz, Moshe Ya’alon and Gabi Ashkenazi) are concerned that Netanyahu’s current sorry political state, together with his desperate status on the criminal indictment front, may actually free the prime minister’s inner brake mechanisms. They fear that all his worries accumulated could create a critical mass that will change Netanyahu’s DNA altogether. In other words, instead of someone cautious of adventures, Netanyahu might hope to get off the hook via adventures. “He must not be allowed to pull the rope too far,” one of the Blue and White top officials told Al-Monitor. “The situation is more sensitive and explosive than ever before; the prime minister is more shaken and undermined than ever before. Considering the fact that the prime minister has no real Cabinet [to consult with], we all need to be very worried indeed.”

    The military-diplomatic dilemma facing Israel today is significant and real. In 2017, the “precision project” of Hezbollah’s rockets was only theoretical. Israel attacked the Hezbollah infrastructure in Syria and the convoys that transported rockets from Syria to Lebanon; this served to significantly hinder the entire project. One year ago, it was estimated that Hezbollah had only a few precise rockets, a maximum of several dozen. This year, the situation is changing rapidly. Israel does not attack in Lebanon, so Iranian efforts to create precise missiles has moved there. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is on his way to an arsenal of precise rockets that will reach thousands of units. “We are talking about the classic tie-breaker,” a high-level military source told Al-Monitor recently. “If Hezbollah will be able to make precise hits on IDF bases, the air force’s airports, intel centers or power concentrations — that is a different story altogether. Israel absolutely cannot reach such a situation, which brings up memories of the Egyptian anti-aircraft missiles in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.”

    On Oct. 28, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced, in a public speech, that Iran recently erected long-range missiles on Yemen’s territory. In that context, a senior defense figured told Al-Monitor that "they are trying to create a 360-degree battlefront. They are succeeding because they now have the ability to attack us from almost all directions."

    So much for the bad news. Recently, there have also been positive developments as far as Israel is concerned. Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin (former head of Aman military intelligence) told Al-Monitor this week that “the Iranians have their own headaches, in light of the large public protests in Lebanon and Iraq. True, the protests in Lebanon are not actually anti-Iran, but the disturbances in Iraq are directly aimed against [Quds Force commander] Gen. Qasem Soleimani. This is a new mini Arab Spring taking place in two countries through which Iran is trying to outflank Israel,” Yadlin asserted.

    In the current state of affairs, Israel is not the only country facing a dilemma. Iran and, mainly, Hassan Nasrallah may find themselves at a crossroads very soon, when crucial decisions will have to be made. Should Israel make the decision to initiate a large-scale strike against the precision project on Lebanese territory, then Nasrallah and Soleimani will have to make an immediate decision: whether to retaliate powerfully and drag the entire region into a conflict that will be much more destructive than all preceding conflicts. Since Nasrallah’s standing in Lebanon is unsteady and since the Lebanese public has had enough of its leaders and rulers, a war may send Lebanon dozens of years back in time and end Nasrallah’s career. “We will not be the only ones to weigh the situation carefully before our next move,” an Israeli security source told Al-Monitor. “Nasrallah is not in such a great position either.”

    Meanwhile, the sides are preparing for whatever comes. The IDF is making modifications in its aerial detection, interception and protection systems. The goal is to reinforce its ability to intercept cruise missiles, to pinpoint them in time. Israel is not at its best in this field, because over recent years it directed its efforts to the interception of rockets and high-trajectory missiles. The decisions waiting for the decision-makers in Jerusalem and Beirut in the next months will be truly fateful, critical ones. At this stage, neither of the two countries above have an elected, functioning government, and that is also a problem.

    This twilight zone can impose restraint on both sides. But it can also create chaos.

    https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/or...an-syria-lebanon-strategy-us-trump-yemen.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2019
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  11. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal SENIOR MEMBER

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    I can’t take an article seriously that says Hezbollah has up to this point only “several dozen” precision rockets.

    That reminds me of the “Iran has 20-30 TELs” comment of the 2000’s
     
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  12. Surenas

    Surenas SENIOR MEMBER

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    The head of the research division of Israel's military intelligence basically said the same:

    https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/09/26/iran-could-fire-cruise-missiles-at-israel-from-iraq/

    I leave it up to your wisdom to judge whether Israel has a good grasp of Hezbollah's precision-guided missiles or not, but what he says in that article is basically Israeli consent.
     
  13. Battle of Waterloo

    Battle of Waterloo BANNED

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    Nasrallah himself explicitly confirmed that Hezbollah has at least a dozen precision-guided missiles. That's a more reliable source for me.
     
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  14. Surenas

    Surenas SENIOR MEMBER

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    Sure.

    Wouldn't be the first intelligence failure on the side of the Israelis with regards to Hezbollah. They completely missed their anti-ship cruise missile capabilities around the Second Lebanese War as well.
     
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  15. Battle of Waterloo

    Battle of Waterloo BANNED

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    One minute Bibi says Hezbollah have multiple huge facilities underground (and overground) for building precision-guided missiles. Now some military research official says Hezbollah doesn't have a single PGM!

    Does that make sense to you? It's all propaganda bullshit.