• Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Iranian Economy Faces ‘Very Tough’ Future

Discussion in 'Middle East & Africa' started by The SC, Aug 13, 2018.

  1. The SC

    The SC ELITE MEMBER

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    Sunday, 12 August, 2018 - 13:30


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    A vendor inspects Iranian rials at a currency exchange shop in Baghdad, October 4, 2012. REUTERS

    A recent study has tackled two scenarios of the Iranian economy in light of the current updates. The study was prepared by an economist researcher in Rasanah (International Institute for Iranian Studies) on the Iranian economy, the nuclear deal, performance assessment, future scenarios and the regime options.

    First Scenario

    In this case, those forecasting the most optimistic scenario for the future of the Iranian economy cannot deny the difficult economic situation in the future, not to mention the difficulty of the current situation, after the US had exited the nuclear agreement, leaving the Iranian economy with grave consequences.

    Also, the study sees Iran heading for a stage in which the economic performance will see a severe weakness in terms of the overall economic indication, decline in financial performance, and rise in the day-to-day cost of living. This speculation emerged based on a host of indications, including the drop in crude oil exports.

    A report by the British oil industry giant British Petroleum (BP) suggested that the Iranian crude oil exports may fall between 300,000 barrels and one million barrels per day in the future (decreased by 143,000 barrels per day in the first half of June 2018)

    The study added that the past period witnessed capital flight and the inability of domestic investment to push growth up. US President Donald Trump’s hard-line tackling of the Iranian file led to the flight of a huge amount of capital outside Iran, amounting to about $ 13 billion in March 2017 / March 2018, according to the Research Center of the Iranian Parliament.

    Second Scenario

    The second scenario is characterized by sustained recession and stagflation, hyperinflation, civil unrest, high levels of poverty and disruption of financial markets; i.e. a macroeconomic collapse.

    Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, sees the idea of Iran going to the brink of economic collapse is “exaggerated”. He argues that this speculation stems from the belief that such a collapse would lead to a revolution which will lead to forging positive ties with the outside world after the economic drop that will lead to a revolution that ousts the regime from within.

    The study concludes that the concept of economic collapse, from a purely academic perspective, does not apply to the Iranian case at the time being.

    Yet, the Iranian economy is not expected to achieve financial or monetary stability, especially with increased spending on conflicts beyond borders (128% increase in spending over the past four years). At the same time, financial resources are eroding after the US sanctions.

    Rasanah researcher pointed out that the general government deficit has been increasing since 2014 with $7.6 billion in 2016 to $9.6 billion in 2017. The deficit is expected to worsen, as the actual income is lower than expected due to difficulties in collecting oil revenue payments and spending beyond budget.


    https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1361061/iranian-economy-faces-‘very-tough’-future
     
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  2. undertakerwwefan

    undertakerwwefan BANNED

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    Economy used to be a weapon big countries can use against small countries. Fortunately, nowadays economy is computer game. So not a big deal.
     
  3. Persian Gulf 1906

    Persian Gulf 1906 FULL MEMBER

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    Your flags are Canadian but all you ever post are Saudi State propaganda media sources, how strange!

    Saudi Arabia should worry about its record budget deficit and hundreds of thousands of expat workers fleeing the Kingdom.
     
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  4. undertakerwwefan

    undertakerwwefan BANNED

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    Who me?
     
  5. Persian Gulf 1906

    Persian Gulf 1906 FULL MEMBER

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    No, the OP ("The SC" - must stand for The Salafist C*nt)
     
  6. undertakerwwefan

    undertakerwwefan BANNED

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    Ah him. The America lover. I'm Chinese Canadian immigrant so even though I am Canadian I am not an America lover.
     
  7. Persian Gulf 1906

    Persian Gulf 1906 FULL MEMBER

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    He's definitely from Wahhabistan, why else would he post nothing other than Saudi state media sources, he should at least make it more subtle if he wants to hide behind false flags!
     
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  8. undertakerwwefan

    undertakerwwefan BANNED

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    The same day Iran says it will be friend with America is the day American tax payers pay for 100 F-16 to Iran for free. Good times just like the 1970s. Iran makes it hard on itself just to challenge the west. Not good for the people of Iran. The west is powerful for a reason. Science and technology. These 2 words. Remember them. Thor is 1 man, and he beats up billions because of technology.

    starts off with



    ends up with

     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2018
  9. Skull and Bones

    Skull and Bones ELITE MEMBER

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    As long as Iran is self sufficient in food and necessary medicine production, there will not be a run down inflation like Venezuela. it's time for Iran to negotiate barter trade with it's allies and friendly countries to nullify US sanctions and devalued currency.
     
  10. undertakerwwefan

    undertakerwwefan BANNED

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    Or, Iran can simply say they want to be friend with America and boom the very next day American tax payers pay for 100 F-15AIr Advanced Iran for free just like 1970s good times.