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Iranian Chill Thread

May 22, 2022
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One cannot pretend everything is okay after 6 months of war. Did anyone here realistically think Russia would still be fighting after 6 months? Or did everyone expect Russia to have taken over the whole country by now. @sha ah
I am in complete agreement but I have a hunch you're basing your analysis by comparing the american invasion of iraq and afghanistan. Bear in mind, those scenarios were completely different.

Iraq's armed forces had large sections that existed only on paper, the extant ones being largely staffed with people who hated saddam and deserted en masse when the americans came and the americans came with a coalition with the invasion's logistics taken care of by iraq's neighbour arab states.

Afghanistan was ruled by the Taliban and the country had no proper education since the soviets invaded, nor did it have a formal military structure. Besides, most of the country including a sizeable number of Pashtuns were in opposition and initially, they helped assist in overthrowing them. Once again, the logistics supply was taken care of by a neighbouring state - Pakistan.

But with that out of the way, russian tactics were awful. No use of an initial cruise missile bombing run, no coordinated overwhelming of Ukraine's air force, zero combined arms maneuvers...plus the overwhelming corruption where armoured vehicles lacked proper protection, the fuel was sold off, the tires some three decades old, expired rations etc. contributed for a 40 km convoy reaching the outskirts of Kiev and turning tail.

Amerikwa demonstrated how to do it right and blyatkovia showed us how to do it wrong.
 

TheImmortal

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4ea.jpg
 

Hack-Hook

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Speaking of which, I see everyone repeating in unison that Russian planners were expecting a much speedier and less costly victory. That since military action is still ongoing, it proves Russia miscalculated and underestimated Ukrainian capabilities grossly. Note that this commonly held belief is a regular feature of western reporting on the war as well.

What I've never come across though, and I mean not once, is a concrete piece of evidence that Moscow was actually anticipating a rapid campaign. I mean, since the idea is being repeated so frequently and with such assurance, those subscribing to it ought to be able to produce some kind of a statement, some declaration, some announcement from a Russian official prior or at the onset of the war that corroborates the allegation, right?

And yet, despite my asking several times, nobody could meet the challenge and show me such evidence. It's still an open challenge, by the way: if you can find any Russian statement to that effect, I'd be glad to acknowledge it.

From all I can gather, there's no reason to assume Russia expected anything but the relatively protracted operation it is conducting right now, as well as the witnessed level of resilience on the part of its adversary.
show me evidence contrary to that . the deployment , movement how they attacked point to that.

a
 

Shawnee

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If Iranian oil increases its market share from 1 B to 2.5 B for the winter which is possible:

-Oil drops 15-20 percent

-US inflation decreases 25-40 percent only from the effect of Iranian oil on transportation etc

Good deal to keep Iranian bomb in check :)
 

SalarHaqq

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show me evidence contrary to that . the deployment , movement how they attacked point to that.

a

Huh? It's incumbent upon those making an allegation to substantiate it with proof, not the other way around.

Russia wasn't assuming it would be a quick war. There's no evidence to the contrary, including in the deployment, movement and offensive maneuvers of the Russian army.
 
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