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Iranian Chill Thread

SalarHaqq

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Mark my words, if Iran tries to distance itself from Russia, we will see Kurdo Azeri problems in Northwest of Iran again. Like I always say people do not change, nations do not change either, just governments change. Tsar Royal Russia, and Communist Russia both ate chunks of Iranian lands. Federalist Russia so far has not gained enough strength that they can go for land expansion but they have shown intentions of eyeing the entire Caspian sea and resources. If Iran opposes that Aliyev will be up our *** with Azeri ethnicism and PJAK terrorism will start in Iran again.

Russians are sophisticated and calculating people who love their nationhood. They care less about others. An admirable quality as a country. They know they need allies as much as possible in these times, especially allies with natural resources who can tighten the Russian grip on western need for hydrocarbon imports. How much Iran can get out of this current situation is upto the Iranian strategists. I do not see much happening to be honest.

No need to be fearful about Russia deciding to support anti-Iranian pan-Turkism I believe, for the zionists and the west are already doing everything they can in this regard, and they are immensely more resourceful than Russia is and will be in the foreseeable future.

As for opposing Russia, the notion that Moscow might react in such a manner never caused Iran to forego her interests vis à vis the Russian Federation. Iran fully supported Bosnian Muslims against Russian-backed Serbs in the 1990's civil war, Iran even trained a handful of Chechens fighting Russia during the Yeltsin days, later on Iran threatened to sue Moscow at the Hague international tribunal over delays in S-300 deliveries. But none of these prompted the Russian Federation to prop up Azari or Kurdish separatism against Iran.

To me this truly looks like a very remote eventuality. Pan-Turkism especially would be a double-edged sword from Russia's perspective, all the more so given NATO member Turkey's involvement with the Baku republic.

More importantly, there's no reason for either Iran or Russia to resort to these sorts of measures against each other. Bilateral relations are at an all time high, with Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution stating he expects them to keep expanding in the upcoming years.

Regarding people and governments, it's governments that forge policy. Different governments in one same country can pursue opposite policies on numerous levels, case in point the Pahlavi monarchy and the Islamic Republic of Iran (it probably won't be necessary to enumerate the fundamental differences between the two).

But even people can change. That's why social engineering isn't a myth but an effective tool of lasting collective behavioral modification. As an example, the German people in 2022 aren't identical to the German people of 1940 (again, it'd be superfluous to go into details I think).
 
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BlessedKingOfLonging

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Oh wow, there's crime in an agglomeration of 15 to 16 million inhabitants... no crap! This is not the point though. We're talking frequency, degree of violence, circumstances of those crimes, what it implies for an ordinary citizen walking the streets, and what the situation in New York is like relative to Tehran.

Did you visit emergency wards in an average American city, not to mention South Central Los Angeles or the Bronx? Forget about the USA, it'd suffice to travel to Molenbeek or the northern neighborhoods of Brussels, to the Seine Saint-Denis department outside Paris, to the Croydon, Brent, Hackney, Southward, or Lambeth areas of London, Rinkeby near Stockholm would do as well. Truth is, if you lack the necessary comparative outlook a listing of Tehran hospitals names won't alter the truth.

Namely, that Tehran is immensely safer for a random person compared to any major metropolitan area of the USA. It's apples and oranges, literally.

To even imagine otherwise is to be cut off from reality, so much so that it's no longer funny. I can't say much about the USA other than the fact that it's much worse than Europe in this regard, but I have personally experienced (as in, lived and conducted similar activities in each of these locations) Tehran as well as some of the western European capitals. So when it comes to empirical comparisons I'm rather well placed to speak.

Then again, any person suggesting that Tokyo is as unsafe as New York City, or that it's "the same" everywhere, really shouldn't be commenting on the topic.
You're wasting bandwidth talking to @Hack-Hook

When he starts off, you should spam "BUT MUH-!"

Yup, they geolocated the site.

Reckless mistakes, put your f**ing phones down.
Something similar happened in al-Tanf in Syria years ago with amerikwans.

They got geolocated with their exercise phone apps and I think there was an attack.

Mark my words, if Iran tries to distance itself from Russia, we will see Kurdo Azeri problems in Northwest of Iran again. Like I always say people do not change, nations do not change either, just governments change. Tsar Royal Russia, and Communist Russia both ate chunks of Iranian lands. Federalist Russia so far has not gained enough strength that they can go for land expansion but they have shown intentions of eyeing the entire Caspian sea and resources. If Iran opposes that Aliyev will be up our *** with Azeri ethnicism and PJAK terrorism will start in Iran again.

Russians are sophisticated and calculating people who love their nationhood. They care less about others. An admirable quality as a country. They know they need allies as much as possible in these times, especially allies with natural resources who can tighten the Russian grip on western need for hydrocarbon imports. How much Iran can get out of this current situation is upto the Iranian strategists. I do not see much happening to be honest.
A coup in Azerbaijan in long overdue. I think even as we speak, sleepers in Azerbaijan are at work undermining it's regime.

I only pray for a Third Chechen War in russia soon, one that ousts them from the North Caucasus forever.
 

SLY

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If you had bad experience posting about Israel share your thoughts lot of the people on here pretending to be muslim and targeting Iranian threads and muslims but glorifying Israel

 

sha ah

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If the war ended today with borders frozen as are, who would you declare the winner ? Russia underestimated the Ukrainians at first but they adjusted and are winning, have essentially won. Russia has taken control of Ukraine's industrial heartland, 1/5th, soon to be 1/4th of its territory, Ukraine lays in ruins and will be in debt to the US/IMF/World Bank for atleast 70 years, Zaporizhia powerplant provides 20% of Ukraine's power for the region and Russia is cutting off Ukraine and transfering it to its power grid. Ukraine has been cut off from the ocean almost completely and will be very lucky if they get out of this with Odessa in their grasp, which I doubt. Anyways let's keep watching and see who wins Russia or the NATO puppet Ukraine with a president who used to dance in high heels ? Btw recenty Ukraine sent a shipment of grains to Lebanon and it got rejected because it had been in storage for too long and wasn't worth the price the business man is quoted as saying. Now they're off to Syria to beg Assad to take their leftover grain nobody even wants. Remember flour has a shelf life of 6 months. This grain has been sitting for 3, more than likely 4 with the travel time realistically. After transfer costs, processing into flour that will basically be 5-6 months. Ukraine should have negotiated from the start. They could have simply remained a nuetral country and traded prosperously with the EU/Russia/China/Middle East/ ETC. Instead they chose to become EU's b#tch and now look at them.


By all means put it simply because you clearly lack the coherence and strategic insight to make it intelligible or sophisticated.
 

BlessedKingOfLonging

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If the war ended today with borders frozen as are, who would you declare the winner ? Russia underestimated the Ukrainians at first but they adjusted and are winning, have essentially won. Russia has taken control of Ukraine's industrial heartland, 1/5th, soon to be 1/4th of its territory, Ukraine lays in ruins and will be in debt to the US/IMF/World Bank for atleast 70 years, Zaporizhia powerplant provides 20% of Ukraine's power for the region and Russia is cutting off Ukraine and transfering it to its power grid. Ukraine has been cut off from the ocean almost completely and will be very lucky if they get out of this with Odessa in their grasp, which I doubt. Anyways let's keep watching and see who wins Russia or the NATO puppet Ukraine with a president who used to dance in high heels ? Btw recenty Ukraine sent a shipment of grains to Lebanon and it got rejected because it had been in storage for too long and wasn't worth the price the business man is quoted as saying. Now they're off to Syria to beg Assad to take their leftover grain nobody even wants. Remember flour has a shelf life of 6 months. This grain has been sitting for 3, more than likely 4 with the travel time realistically. After transfer costs, processing into flour that will basically be 5-6 months. Ukraine should have negotiated from the start. They could have simply remained a nuetral country and traded prosperously with the EU/Russia/China/Middle East/ ETC. Instead they chose to become EU's b#tch and now look at them.
Tactical Ukrainian victory, strategic Russian victory.
 

BlessedKingOfLonging

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Well, me think that the replanish of iron dom by israel can be done faster then the replanish of the rockets in Gaza. For me that is the reason why Israel attacks Gaza nearly every year: To lower the quantity of Gaza rockets.

Why do they do that? Well, if there are a Gaza with fully max stocks of rockets AND a Hizb in Lebanon with fully max stocks of rockets, then there is a possibillity that Israel can be whiped out cause of 1.) Gaza fires all rockets and so lower the quantity of iron dom rockets so 2.) that then there are no more enough iron dom rockets to stop the Hizb rockets that are fired shortly after the Gaza rockets. In this constellation Israel has no chance to defend properly. And that is why they provoke Gaza nearly every year to make Gaza fire its rockets in a "controlled" szenario to avoid a szenario where Gaza and Hizb work together in attacking Israel.
Your analysis holds weight. I always notice Hamas and PIJ respond only with smaller rockets to the isnotreali bombardment which is indicative they're holding out for the big battle where the Palestinians and Hezbollah will launch a coordinated assault against the enemy.
 

Battlion25

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I always find it strange why Israel is slightly overestimated militarily by layman who don't understand military affairs. Israel doesn't attack Gaza every year because there is deterence ethbalished between them as Israel pays a price for fighting them including tourism and other sectors such as their energy sector gets hit and besides a direct conventional conflict has proven to be costly which has been abandoned as they tried it out back in 08 and 14 etc etc.. They know better now from experience that engaging 200 to 300k Armed palis with tunnel networks will not be a walk in the park who has anti-tank weapons, missiles etc etc and who are motivated to engage. Such a conventional clash could take years and be drawn out perhaps 2-3 years with Israel sacrifcing over half to 70 or 80% of it's armed forces.. This is the realistic scenario play by play not the cartoon version where someone rolls over someone etc etc.

Now that being said one thing the Gazans does well is that they don't take shxt for anything whch has technically lead to deterence which can't be said the same thing in Syria. Isreal is a small country with poor stragetic depth and low population they can't sustain a prolonged war with example Syria.

What needs to happen is the ending of Israel's attacks on Syria which they have been doing without any reply for nearly 5-7 years now.. Syria is capable of lighting of Israel quite easily hence why I don't understand the hesition and what are they waiting for? They should take a page out of the Gazans. Which is pretty simple ''We either fight to the death with each other or we make ceasefire'' But you can't allow them open shop. They only understand force and that is what you give them. THey only understand the language of force..

Enough is enough. It is time for Assad to mobilize his forces and start throwing in missiles and start engaging them at the border site and you will see Israel's reactions being surprising and retreating or even avoiding to engage Assad's militias on the battlefield. The question is Can they even fight Syria in a war of attration the answer is a simple no..

They attacked yesterday Tartus without any reactions. The Syrians have to prepare for a conflict with Israel first of all and second of all attack Israel unprovoked to start a short conflict if prolonged then that is good but Israel can't fight a war lasting more then 2 weeks they just don't have the capacity for that
 
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Stryker1982

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I always find it strange why Israel is slightly overestimated militarily by layman who don't understand military affairs. Israel doesn't attack Gaza every year because there is deterence ethbalished between them as Israel pays a price for fighting them including tourism and other sectors such as their energy sector gets hit and besides a direct conventional conflict has proven to be costly which has been abandoned as they tried it out back in 08 and 14 etc etc.. They know better now from experience that engaging 200 to 300k Armed palis with tunnel networks will not be a walk in the park who has anti-tank weapons, missiles etc etc and who are motivated to engage. Such a conventional clash could take years and be drawn out perhaps 2-3 years with Israel sacrifcing over half to 70 or 80% of it's armed forces.. This is the realistic scenario play by play not the cartoon version where someone rolls over someone etc etc.

Now that being said one thing the Gazans does well is that they don't take shxt for anything whch has technically lead to deterence which can't be said the same thing in Syria. Isreal is a small country with poor stragetic depth and low population they can't sustain a prolonged war with example Syria.

What needs to happen is the ending of Israel's attacks on Syria which they have been doing without any reply for nearly 5-7 years now.. Syria is capable of lighting of Israel quite easily hence why I don't understand the hesition and what are they waiting for? They should take a page out of the Gazans. Which is pretty simple ''We either fight to the death with each other or we make ceasefire'' But you can't allow them open shop. They only understand force and that is what you give them. THey only understand the language of force..

Enough is enough. It is time for Assad to mobilize his forces and start throwing in missiles and start engaging them at the border site and you will see Israel's reactions being surprising and retreating or even avoiding to engage Assad's militias on the battlefield. The question is Can they even fight Syria in a war of attration the answer is a simple no..

They attacked yesterday Tartus without any reactions. The Syrians have to prepare for a conflict with Israel first of all and second of all attack Israel unprovoked to start a short conflict if prolonged then that is good but Israel can't fight a war lasting more then 2 weeks they just don't have the capacity for that
I'm not really sure what the long term game plan is for Syria, but Syria is not able to stop Israel from attacking it. Syria also cannot tolerate escalation so I can understand why they are purely defensive in this regard, I think they are hoping for the main war to start, in this war between wars to reset the balance of power. That is, the only way Syria can avoid these strikes is if Israel and Iran clash. or Isreal and Lebenon

They are also worried about the rebel groups in Idlib, and Turkey as well so last thing they need is another major conflict. But you are absolutely right, Israel is a strong military, but very thin, and does not have the ability to wage attrition warfare let alone absorb major blows to its military and civilian infrastructure. That's why it always tries to end these wars with Gaza quickly. How many power plants do they have, like 4? and 2 ports? Not difficult to shut it down.
 

TheImmortal

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Not sure It can be called a tactical Ukrainian victory, considering they still would lose roughly 20-25% of their land, of which alot of it is very good land. But I think Russia had to endure much higher costs than expected to get this result.

They lost land that they technically already had lost since 2014. They are basically giving up the autonomous regions. Would be like saying Iraq losing Kurdistan.

Furthermore, this conflict ended up being a victory for Ukrainian government. They will be accepted into EU (and probably even NATO). They will receive western aid and be turned into a militarized buffer against Russia. The people will suffer, but the Ukraine government doesn’t care.

As for Russia it secured the autonomous regions, but at what cost? Global pariah like Iran and it’s military which was supposed to be the 3rd best in the world came out not even looking like a top 10. This led to loss of deterrence, luckily they have thousands of nukes to maintain some level of deterrence moving forward.

There is also the risk of after Putin is gone, some Qajar dynasty like ruler will give up all of the gains back to Ukraine to win favor with the west and get sanctions lifted. Which would make this whole war a bit pointless.
 

Shawnee

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Konica camera made immediately after WWII, forced to be labeled as “made in occupied Japn”

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Stryker1982

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They lost land that they technically already had lost since 2014. They are basically giving up the autonomous regions. Would be like saying Iraq losing Kurdistan.
Theirs alot more beyond the Autonomous regions that Russia currently holds, I would agree if they only held Donbass and Luhansk
 

Stryker1982

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IR wants to sign a deal. IR signing it's own death warrant to get benefits for only 2 years while losing it's nuclear infrastructure. Well played

The system deserves to fall if it is so naive like this.

The problem is not the idea of sanctions removal and economic connection. That is obviously good, the idea that the participants of the JCPOA will sign an agreement that will benefit Iran is a major joke, as if they have any intention of that. Especially the joke that it can last even 2 years. At most 6 years.

Why on earth would they give benefits to Iran, and tying Iran's economic future to this deal is also a joke, many problems can be solved without the JCPOA and many problems, the JCPOA will not solve. Not to mention their is absolute 0 guarantee that any EU country will even want to work in Iran or any other nation will want to expand relations with Iran due to American sanctions fear.
 
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